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Thursday, November 11
War Room: Lions at Cardinals


Detroit offense vs. Arizona defense
LIONS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 21
Pass 14
Tot. Yds. 19
Scoring 12
Int's allowed 7
Sacks allowed 32
   
CARDINALS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 30
vs. Pass 4
Total yds. allowed 13
# of Ints. 8
# of Sacks 17
Turnover differential -16
The Lions were fortunate to escape with a win against the Rams and backup QB Gus Frerotte deserves all the credit. Because he lacks Charlie Batch's mobility, Frerotte was under extreme pressure down the stretch but he hung in the pocket and made big throws.

More impressive than his 57-yard Hail Mary to Germaine Crowell was the game-winning touchdown pass to Johnnie Morton. Frerotte wanted to go Crowell's way but he smartly recognized double coverage and checked back to the opposite side of the field and threw a strike to Morton on a stop-fade route. On that one play, Frerotte demonstrated the poise under pressure that all teams seek in a No. 2 guy. Frerotte might again get the call this week if Charlie Batch's injured finger prevents him from gripping the ball.

Regardless of who starts at quarterback, the Lions must throw the ball deep to Crowell. The threat of Crowell has opened up things underneath for nickel back Sedrick Irvin, who continues to pick up necessary yards after the catch to sustain drives. Irvin is filling a much-needed complimentary role in the Lions' passing game and he will be even more valuable if Frerotte is in the lineup because the Lions will not be able to rely on Batch's escape ability.

The Lions will be able to pick the Cardinals apart if they contain RDE Simeon Rice, who has nine of the team's 17 sacks. Rice needs to catch LOT Ray Roberts on one of his off days. Roberts has been dominant the last four games, but he has a history of surrendering costly sacks.

Arizona's secondary is holding up well despite the lack of pressure but safeties Tommy Bennett and Kwamie Lassiter need to start making more plays on the ball. The Cards rank among the league leaders in pass defense, giving up just 171 yards per game but that stat is deceiving because teams have not been forced to throw the ball on them. The one thing that separates this unit from last year's is their inability to force turnovers -- a tough job against Detroit's conservative game plan.

Detroit couldn't run the football against St. Louis' penetrating front four but they get a reprieve this week against an Arizona defense that is giving up 143.1 yards per game. Arizona's backup defensive linemen are playing admirably but too many of their tackles are being made five yards downfield. The thing that is killing the Cards is their lack of depth up front. The starters are being forced to log exhaustive minutes, which means the Lions should stick with Greg Hill and Irvin on the ground.

Arizona offense vs. Detroit defense
CARDINALS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 31
Pass 26
Tot. Yds. 29
Scoring 30
Int's allowed 18
Sacks allowed 24
   
LIONS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 3
vs. Pass 30
Total yds. allowed 22
# of Ints. 7
# of Sacks 28
Turnover differential -2
Arizona's offensive problems stem from their inability to run the ball. Last week's performance against the Jets was the most disappointing of the season because the swirling winds made it virtually impossible to generate anything through the air. The Cardinals have gained just 543 yards on the ground in eight games, which is less than 15 individual player totals this season.

The key to the Lions' four game winning streak has been a resurgent run defense that has allowed just 62.8 yards per contest the past five weeks. Various injuries have deprived the Cardinals of establishing any chemistry along the offensive line and they will have a tough time against the Lions' swarming defense. Arizona's interior trio of LOG Matt Joyce, OC Aaron Graham, and ROG Lester Holmes is the least athletic group in the league and they will have their hands full containing DTs Luther Ellis and James Jones.

Where the Cardinals stand to suffer most is when defensive coordinator Larry Peccatiello blitzes MLB Stephen Boyd. With Ellis and Jones occupying the interior, it will be up to FB Joel Makovicka to pick up the run blitz with his lead block. This scheme has allowed OLB's Chris Claiborne and Allen Aldridge to come in behind Boyd to make plays.

Last week, QB Dave Brown was sacked six times by a Jets defense that had only eight sacks in their first seven games. The Cardinals need to find a way to score points early on Sunday because their offense has proved they are incapable of coming from behind. Detroit's banged up secondary needs some extra help this week so don't look for the Lions to use excessive blitzing to generate pressure.

Arizona will be in good shape if they can handle the Lions' four-man rush because the Cards should be able to take advantage of some individual matchups with their receiver trio. The Lions have been positioning FS Mark Carrier extremely deep in the secondary to prevent giving up big plays. What this will do is open up the middle of the field behind the dropping LBs.

If the offensive line can give Brown room to step up in the pocket and deliver the ball, the Cardinals should have success throwing across the middle to Frank Sanders and David Boston. RDC Terry Fair has really been coming on for the Lions and looks more sure in coverage than at any point in his short career.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category DET ARI
Punt return avg. 13 11
Kickoff return avg. 7 6
Opp. punt return avg. 20 6
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 6 17
Time of possession 20 29
Cardinal return men Mac Cody, who had a costly muffed punt last week, and Mario Bates consistently give the offense good field position, but the team has yet to reap the rewards of their work. Detroit's coverage units forced two Az Hakim fumbles last week but they were unable to recover either. The Lions are showing great hustle but they need to make the plays when the opportunity presents itself. Against New York, Cards P Scott Player had punts that covered just 21, 25, 27, 29 yards into stiff 25 m.p.h. winds and he must rebound from that draining performance. Lions PK Jason Hansen is the closest thing to automatic in the league right now. He assures the Lions of points if they reach the 35. Don't look for the change of elements to affect Hansen's performance.

Key matchups
  • Arizona RDE Simeon Rice vs. Detroit LOT Ray Roberts
    Rice is playing the best ball of his career and Roberts has been known to struggle against speed rushers. If Roberts can't handle him alone they must keep TE Sloan in to block. This will put huge restraints on the Lions' playbook.

  • Detroit RDE Tracy Scroggins vs. LOT L.J. Shelton
    Scroggins continues to get great pressure on the backside and he will likely be too savvy for Shelton to contain on a consistent basis. Scroggins has three sacks in the past two games.

  • Detroit WR Germaine Crowell vs. Arizona DC Aeneas Williams
    Crowell is emerging as one of the league's top game-breakers and he is one of the few guys in the league that can run past Williams. Crowell is a tremendous route runner and will look to beat Williams with various double moves.

    Detroit will win if...
  • The front four continues to put pressure on the quarterback. The Lions have been able to scale back their blitzes the past four games and opposing quarterbacks have had trouble finding open receivers. The Jets sacked Brown six times last week and he is often a sitting duck with the Cards offensive line.

  • The offensive line opens holes in the run game. Hill's straight-line style didn't work well against the Rams' penetrating defense but he needs to be a factor on Sunday. The Lions can't expect the passing game to carry them.

  • Coach Bobby Ross keeps them focused and gets them ready for the road. The Lions haven't been on a long road trip all season and the warm weather could also be a factor for an indoor team.

    Arizona will win if...

  • They run the football. It's that simple for the Cards. Their inability to get positive yardage on first and second down forces Brown to complete too many long third-down passes. The Lions' defense is coming off a stellar effort, holding St. Louis' Marshall Faulk to just 15 yards on 11 carries.

  • Their reserve defensive linemen play at a high level. Injuries up front have thinned this unit but guys like Drake and Ottis have played well. Detroit's interior OL has not received enough credit for their improved play in front of Batch.

  • They jump out early and never let up. The Cards must get the home crowd involved early and keep the heat on this resilient Lions team.

    The War Room edge
    In the past, the Lions haven't fared too well on West Coast trips but this not a typical team. The Lions are playing mistake-free ball on offense and the defense is becoming almost impossible to run against. The Cardinals need to protect the quarterback and make a couple of big plays downfield to soften up the defense for Murrell and Pittman. Detroit has been too consistent to think they'll have a letdown against the Cards. The Lions have historically lost games like this one but Bobby Ross will make sure his players are focused.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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