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Thursday, November 11
War Room: Packers at Cowboys


Green Bay offense vs. Dallas defense
PACKERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 22
Pass 7
Tot. Yds. 8
Scoring 18
Int's allowed 13
Sacks allowed 20
   
COWBOYS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 12
vs. Pass 21
Total yds. allowed 15
# of Ints. 9
# of Sacks 20
Turnover differential -7
If it's not one thing it's another. That's the way things have been going offensively for the Green Bay Packers. In last Sunday's crushing loss to the Bears, QB Brett Favre corrected his problem of locking on WR Antonio Freeman by hitting seven different receivers with at least two passes.

The problem that now plagues the Pack is the receivers' inability to hang onto Favre's passes. TE Tyrone Davis was the main culprit last week, dropping three easy balls and Freeman chipped in with a dropped slant route that might have resulted in a 62-yard touchdown.

Look for Green Bay to continue to focus on more underneath routes in order to sustain drives. Favre was in a better rhythm last week and he didn't force nearly as many throws into tight coverage.

It will be imperative for the Cowboys to get consistent pressure throughout the day on Favre. Dallas' front seven got tremendous pressure on Minnesota's Jeff George last week in the first half but they didn't keep their intensity level high the entire game.

The Packers were a mess up front last week, blowing far too many assignments against the Bears' hustling defense. Defensive coordinator Dave Campo doesn't want to blitz Favre all that often and he might not have to if his front four continues its outstanding play.

Dallas welcomes back Leon Lett from his suspension but don't expect the former Pro Bowler to make a huge impact. Ideally, the Cowboys would like to use Lett in nickel situations in order to generate an inside pass rush but it's unlikely he will be able to handle more than 15-20 plays.

RDC Deion Sanders was clearly affected by his hamstring injury against the Vikings and the Packers will consistently run one of their favorite plays -- the quick hitch to Freeman -- if he isn't able to play bump coverage. Freeman hasn't made a big play in weeks and this would be the perfect game to end the drought.

After rushing for only 79 yards on 26 carries against a porous Bears run defense, RB Dorsey Levens must rebound in a big way. Levens never really got on track and his decision-making was clearly off. Green Bay needs to have success running the football up the middle because Dallas' speedy flow LB's close quickly on the flanks.

Dallas is surrendering under 100 yards per game (96.1) but they were gouged early by the Vikings when Leroy Hoard hammered the ball between the tackles. MLB Randall Godfrey must be effective on inside run blitzes in order for the Cowboys to be successful.

Look for the Cowboys to target Packers OC Frank Winters, who was out-muscled in the run game on a few occasions last week.

Dallas offense vs. Green Bay defense
COWBOYS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 6
Pass 22
Tot. Yds. 16
Scoring 5
Int's allowed 9
Sacks allowed 14
   
PACKERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 28
vs. Pass 12
Total yds. allowed 19
# of Ints. 18
# of Sacks 18
Turnover differential -6
The Cowboys head into this one without the infamous "Big Three" -- Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, and Michael Irvin. Although this would cripple most teams, the Cowboys are pretty will equipped to deal with the losses. QB Jason Garrett (3-11, 4 yds., 1 INT) was not sharp in his relief role last Sunday but he is an accurate passer that knows the offense.

Because of Garrett's physical limitations, the Cowboys will go to a more conservative, high-percentage passing game that will utilize TE David LaFluer, who caught both of his touchdowns a year ago from Garrett.

Green Bay defensive coordinator Emmitt Thomas must do something to generate a pass rush. The Packers managed just a half a sack last week and they only rushed more than four players 25% of the time. Thomas has been reluctant to set SS LeRoy Butler free on the blitz but that appears to be his only option.

About the only positive news coming out of Green Bay this week was the improved play of FS Darren Sharper, who snared one interception and had another nullified by a teammate's penalty. Sharper will again play a key role because the Packers don't have a corner that can run with WR Rocket Ismail.

While Garrett doesn't have great arm strength, Sharper must be aware of Ismail on intermediate crossing routes. Dallas' wideouts, including Ismail, killed drives last week with easy drops, which is the main reason the Cowboys converted just 1-of-13 third down attempts.

The loss of Emmitt Smith will hurt the Cowboys' inside running game but Chris Warren is a better reserve option than many teams have at their disposal. Warren's skills have definitely declined over the past three years and he has to be more willing to hit the hole now that he's the starter.

With Smith in the lineup, Warren benefitted from his inside pounding which often forced opponents to pinch the middle of the field. With that no longer being the case, Warren can't afford to bounce everything to the outside. Green Bay must be conscious of Warren's tendencies and overplay the flats. The Packers' linebacker corps is coming off their worst overall performance of the season and they often appeared lost without weakside starter Brian Williams.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category GB DAL
Punt return avg. 21 2
Kickoff return avg. 31 14
Opp. punt return avg. 16 28
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 18 7
Time of possession 28 4
Both teams are coming off games that were greatly affected by the kicking game. After reviewing film of the game, it's hard to fault Green Bay PK Ryan Longwell for his blocked game-winning attempt. LS Rob Davis' snap was off target but holder Matt Hassellbeck did a tremendous job of getting the ball down quickly. Longwell didn't get quite get under the ball enough but that is a kick that usually sails through the uprights.

Dallas' Richie Cunningham could have put away the Vikings with a couple of first quarter field goals but he continues to consistently hit the ball true -- his 42-yard attempt missed wide left and he pushed the 37-yarder wide right. Dallas PR Deion Sanders will probably rest his hamstring on special teams again this week, which leaves Jeff Ogden as the best option. In a game that will be greatly impacted by field position, Dallas holds the edge with P Toby Gowin, who averaged 46.7 yards on six punts a week ago.

Key matchups
  • Dallas DL vs. Green Bay OL
    Lett returns from his suspension this week but don't look for him to be much of a factor. Dallas is getting surprising play from guys like Spellman and the key will be getting deep penetration into the backfield before Levens can build a head of steam.

  • Green Bay OLBs Koonce, Waddy & Davis vs. Dallas RB Chris Warren
    Warren rarely trusts his vision anymore and tends to bounce everything outside. The Packers were embarrassed by Chicago's four-RB rotation last week and must do a better job of playing the run outside the hash marks.

  • Green Bay LDE Keith McKenzie vs. Dallas ROT Erik Williams
    McKenzie, who has seen his playing time strangely decrease, is the only Packer that gets any sort of consistent pass rush and he should benefit from Vaughn Booker's work on run downs. Williams and the rest of the OL must keep people off of backup QB Garrett.

    Green Bay will win if...
  • The front seven contains the run on first and second down. The Packers have not played the run well the past few weeks and they cannot afford for the Cowboys to have balance offensively. Garrett doesn't have the weapons to convert long plays in the passing game.

  • Favre continues to spread the ball around. Last week, offensive coordinator Sherm Lewis streamlined the game plan and the simplified approach seemed to get more people involved. This will prevent the Cowboys from keying on Antonio Freeman.

  • Coach Ray Rhodes has his team mentally prepared. The Packers have not had any success on the road in this series and the new coach must convince this young team that this is a different season.

    Dallas will win if...

  • They are able to run the ball in the red-zone. Dallas is one of the most efficient teams in the league inside the 20 and they don't have a true receiving threat without Irvin. The Cowboys' only option in the passing game is TE David LaFluer.

  • They can disguise some coverage away from Deion Sanders and pressure Favre into a couple of interceptions. Favre is forcing the ball into traffic, especially in the red-zone, so the Cowboys can keep the pressure with some creativity.

  • They win the battle of field position. Green Bay has had trouble sustaining drives so the Cowboys must execute in the kicking game and take care of the ball on offense. They cannot afford to give the Packers a short field.

    The War Room edge
    Although neither team has many players left from the rivalry that started in the mid-90's, this game promises to be physical. It will be interesting to see how Green Bay rebounds on the road after two tough losses in Lambeau. This one will be decided in the trenches. Whichever team is able to consistently run the football will prevail. Look for Larry Allen to make the difference for Dallas.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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