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Thursday, November 11
War Room: Chiefs at Buccaneers


Kansas City offense vs. Tampa Bay defense
CHIEFS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 8
Pass 23
Tot. Yds. 18
Scoring 7
Int's allowed 7
Sacks allowed 9
   
BUCS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 4
vs. Pass 6
Total yds. allowed 5
# of Ints. 7
# of Sacks 24
Turnover differential -14
In coach Gunther Cunningham's ball-control scheme, the Chiefs have run the ball over 65 percent of the time and that doesn't figure to change on Sunday. However, when they are forced to throw, quarterback Elvis Grbac must find a way to get Tony Gonzalez involved early. Gonzalez is a pivotal player in the Chiefs' conservative game plan because his ability to get open in the play-action passing game is what keeps the chains moving.

One thing the Chiefs will do to create better individual matchups, especially in the red-zone, is flex Gonzalez out wide with either Derrick Alexander or Andre Rison in the slot on the same side of the formation. In this set, the wide receiver can attack the safety and drive him away from Gonzalez, who should be able to use his size advantage on one of the Bucs' smallish cornerbacks.

Grbac kept his composure on last week's 11-play, 88-yard scoring drive, but even more impressive were his five third-down completions of 11 yards or better. Against the Bucs' zone-heavy scheme, Grbac must continue to spread the ball around and keep everyone involved in the passing game.

Tampa's secondary played its best game of the season last week but it's not too difficult stepping up against the Saints. SS John Lynch and DC Ronde Barber made timely plays in coverage and they must keep an eye on third-down specialist WR Kevin Lockett, who has 11 receptions that have kept drives alive.

Ultimately, the Chiefs need to run the football effectively on early downs in order to score points. Last week was the first time in seven games that Kansas City did not run the ball at least 30 times and the offensive line's inability to sustain their blocks in the second half cost them the game. RB Donnell Bennett ran hard and smart against the Colts but he'll find much less running room outside against the Bucs.

Tampa Bay bounced back from their disappointing performance at Detroit to hold Ricky Williams to just 41 yards on 14 carries. The Buccaneers must get strong play from their defensive tackle rotation, especially Warren Sapp. Opponents are beginning to double-team Sapp on nearly every snap and the constant pounding is starting to take its toll.

Look for the Bucs to bunch their linebackers tight, just inside the defensive ends, to take away the inside running game. Few teams have the speed at LB to play them so tight but guys like Derrick Brooks rarely have a hard time containing plays that are designed to go wide.

Tampa Bay offense vs. Kansas City defense
BUCS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 5
Pass 27
Tot. Yds. 23
Scoring 26
Int's allowed 10
Sacks allowed 24
   
CHIEFS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 8
vs. Pass 16
Total yds. allowed 11
# of Ints. 14
# of Sacks 20
Turnover differential +8
Forced back into the lineup only a week after his demotion, QB Trent Dilfer responded with his most impressive performance of the season, connecting on 15-of-27 passes for 227 yards and three touchdowns. The key stat for Dilfer was a big zero in the interception column.

Dilfer admitted this week that he has trouble throwing the ball in Raymond James Stadium because of the swirling winds but that can't be used as an excuse if he fails to log another solid outing. Last week, Dilfer finally connected on an impact play in the passing game when he hit Jacquez Green on a 62-yard touchdown. Granted, New Orleans DC Ashley Ambrose was playing on a bum ankle, but credit Dilfer for at least attempting a pass over 20 yards.

Kansas City got some good pressure on Indianapolis' Peyton Manning last week but they must finish their pass rush with sacks. None of the Chiefs three sacks came from members of the front four but don't look for coach Gunther Cunningham to panic and start blitzing people against the marginally talented Bucs receiver corps. WR Reidel Anthony continues to disappoint, having dropped three more passes last week.

FB Mike Alstott figures to get another heavy workload for the Bucs on Sunday. Alstott only got stronger as the game progressed last week, piling up 52 of his 117 yards on the team's final drive. Running mate Warrick Dunn has yet to average more than 3.7 yards per carry in any game this season but he freelanced less last week and actually adhered to the design of the plays. If Dunn can continue to his progress in the running game it will give the Bucs the balanced running attack they've had in years past.

The Chiefs did an excellent job of containing Edgerrin James in the first half (10 att., 24 yds.) but his abilities in the passing game ultimately wore down the linebacker corps. Dunn will pose similar problems in the passing game, but the majority of Dunn's work comes on short hook-ups over the middle, as opposed to James' routes in the flat.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category KC TB
Punt return avg. 9 8
Kickoff return avg. 19 17
Opp. punt return avg. 7 8
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 5 2
Time of possession 9 3
Kansas City PK Pete Stoyanovich has been so poor on kickoffs this season -- just one touchback in 41 kickoffs -- that the team had to roam the waiver wire for help. Indianapolis' starting field position was their own 36-yard line last week and the Chiefs defense can't afford to play on such a short field on Sunday. The Chiefs might again be without the services of RS Tamarick Vanover, who is nursing a calf injury. Last week, rookie Larry Parker ruined his best punt return of the afternoon with a costly fumble -- something that rarely happens when the sure-handed Vanover is healthy.

Tampa PK Martin Gramatica hooked another kick wide left last week and he needs to pull out of his mini-slump before it costs the team a victory. Like Parker, the Bucs' Yo Murphy also fumbled away a potential big return last Sunday. The team that minimizes its mistakes on special teams will be victorious on Sunday.

Key matchups
  • Kansas City interior OL vs. Tampa DTs Sapp & Culpepper
    The Chiefs like to pound the ball inside but they will have a tough time accomplishing that against this defense. Rookie Anthony McFarland must be ready to play 20-25 snaps.

  • Kansas City TE Tony Gonzalez vs. Tampa zone defense
    Tampa will offer Gonzalez a unique challenge with their tight zone coverage. Despite having two highly capable cover linebackers -- Shelton Quarles and Al Singleton -- Defensive Coordinator Monte Kiffin will rarely ask his unit hold up in man coverage against a crafty player like Gonzalez.

  • Tampa PK Martin Gramatica vs. Kansas City PK Pete Stoyanovich
    Gramatica's inconsistency could cost the Bucs this week. Kansas City has the advantage in this one if it's close because of Stoyanovich's big game experience.

    Kansas City will win if...
  • They are able to hit a couple of big plays in the passing game. Tampa's run defense will make it tough on Bam Morris & Co., so Grbac needs to hit on some play-action passes to soften up the Bucs.

  • They contain Alstott and force the Bucs to beat them with the passing game. Dilfer played well last week but Gunther Cunningham must make him produce an encore. Tampa's short passing game will not get it done against this defense.

  • Their corners can eliminate the big play and keep plays in front of them. Tampa has speed at receiver but they are not disciplined enough in their routes to consistently beat these veterans.

    Tampa Bay will win if...

  • They play tough defense up the middle and force the Chiefs running game outside. RBs Bennett and Morris can do great damage between the tackles but they don't have the speed to get to the corner. DEs Ahanotu and Jones must do their best to string plays to the sideline.

  • Dilfer can minimize mistakes and take advantage of the field position the Bucs defense gives him. Dilfer did a good job of capitalizing on opportunities last week and he must keep the ball away from the Chiefs' attacking secondary.

  • They can get Warrick Dunn going in the run game. Dunn has become too one-dimensional in the passing game and the Bucs have missed his ability to get outside on the ground. If this doesn't happen the Bucs will become too predictable and easy to defend.

    The War Room edge
    Two tough defenses and two conservative offenses will make for a tight, low-scoring game. The only difference between these two teams is Kansas City's ability to make plays downfield in the passing game. Grbac has been playing error-free ball the past two weeks but he has yet to face a front four like Tampa's. Look for Dilfer to build on last week's performance and do just enough to pull out a tough win.

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