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Thursday, November 11
War Room: Vikings at Bears


Minnesota offense vs. Chicago defense
VIKINGS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 17
Pass 4
Tot. Yds. 6
Scoring 9
Int's allowed 12
Sacks allowed 24
   
BEARS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 24
vs. Pass 24
Total yds. allowed 27
# of Ints. 6
# of Sacks 25
Turnover differential -12
The tale of two halves swung in the Vikings' favor last Monday when they started playing physical up front. At the start, Dallas' undersized defensive line thoroughly whipped Minnesota, making it virtually impossible for QB Jeff George to complete a pass in the first half. In the past two games, Minnesota has managed just 12 yards passing in the first quarter -- a stat that must change this week.

It will be imperative for the Vikings to come out and play with emotion from the opening kickoff on Sunday because they can't rely on many more comeback victories, especially on the road. George displayed terrible pocket awareness in the first half, often bracing for sacks and throwing off his back foot.

LOT Todd Stuessie is coming off his worst performance of the season and must elevate his game against Chicago RDE Van Tuinei, who started last week in place of Russell Davis. Tuinei put good pressure on Brett Favre last week and is the type of undersized edge rusher that gives Stuessie problems.

Another matchup in the trenches to keep an eye on is LDT Jim Flanigan versus ROG David Dixon. In Week 5, Flanigan rang up a pair of sacks against Dixon because he was able to get quick penetration with his inside swim move. Dixon must work to get his hands on Flanigan before he has a chance to get in the backfield.

Chicago also shook up its secondary against Green Bay, starting Terry Cousin in place of Tom Carter. Both players will be on the field against the Vikings' multiple-receiver sets and it will be interesting to see how Carter responds to last week's demotion. The Bears came away with three interceptions against Randall Cunningham in the first meeting between these teams but look for them to struggle against the more decisive George.

Against Dallas, Minnesota made a critical error by going away from the running game on their opening series. For some reason the offensive line became passive after blowing up huge holes for RBs Leroy Hoard and Moe Williams, who combined for 38 yards on the first five plays of the game.

Chicago has not played the run particularly well all season but they put forth their best effort of the season last week, holding Dorsey Levens to 79 yards on 26 carries. Bears NT Mike Wells, who had six solo tackles last week, is playing the run about as well as any defensive tackle in the league and his double-teams should free MLB Sean Harris to make plenty of plays.

Chicago was shredded by RB Robert Smith (12 att., 107 yds,) in the first meeting but should fare better against a between-the-tackles runner like Hoard.

Chicago offense vs. Minnesota defense
BEARS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 20
Pass 8
Tot. Yds. 12
Scoring 23
Int's allowed 14
Sacks allowed 21
   
VIKINGS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 23
vs. Pass 28
Total yds. allowed 29
# of Ints. 5
# of Sacks 22
Turnover differential -9
The Bears pulled off an amazing win last week in Lambeau and the injury to QB Cade McNown has pressed Jim Miller (who many teammates feel is the team's top quarterback) into the starting lineup. Miller wasn't flashy against the Packers but he did some of the little things, namely blitz recognition, that McNown wasn't able to accomplish.

Chicago's offensive line did a tremendous job of protecting Miller, as he was sacked just once all day. Look for the Vikings to come after Miller with more blitzes than he saw a week ago in an attempt to rattle the inexperienced veteran.

As was the case with their offense, Minnesota's defensive line played lethargically in the first half against the Cowboys, which forced the secondary to hold coverage too long. Defensive coordinator Foge Fazio ignited his unit in the second half, as NT Jerry Ball's knockout shot of Troy Aikman all but sealed the victory.

Despite the emergence of Marcus Robinson and steady play from Bobby Engram, the Bears passing attack will again miss Curtis Conway. Without Conway, the passing game is becoming overly predictable because not enough receivers are getting involved. Conway's work underneath really opened up the offense in Week 5, which means TE Ryan Wetnight must make an impact on Sunday.

The Vikings' secondary held up fairly well in coverage last week, especially late in the game, but numerous drops by Cowboy receivers helped their cause. One thing that this unit must improve on is their ball skills. The Vikings dropped at least four interceptions against the Cowboys and those are the types of plays that made this unit successful a year ago.

Smartly, Miller took some shots downfield, and while he didn't connect on many, the attempts prevented the Packers from using SS LeRoy Butler near the line of scrimmage. The Vikings' tackling was atrocious in the first half on Monday night. FS Orlando Thomas was the main culprit, blowing a pair of open-field tackles on Emmitt Smith's two touchdown runs. Thomas, who is that last line of defense for the Vikings, not only took poor angles to the ball carrier, he also failed to wrap-up on numerous occasions, opting instead for the big hit.

Chicago's line did a nice job of springing RB Curtis Enis into the secondary last week and he will be too powerful for Thomas to bring down if he doesn't break down and get into Enis' legs. If the Vikings come out flat, look for the Bears to have success running the football with their new four-man backfield rotation.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category MIN CHI
Punt return avg. 15 10
Kickoff return avg. 15 11
Opp. punt return avg. 15 18
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 14 13
Time of possession 24 11
The Vikings have lost RS David Palmer for a while but his injury could actually improve the return game. Palmer was running tentatively all season and Randy Moss came within a stumble of breaking a long punt return last week. The Vikings might shop for a return guy but players like Moss, David Tate, and Chris Walsh should be able to get the job done. Dennis Green has clearly lost confidence in PK Gary Anderson's ability from beyond 45 yards. Anderson's problems will be offset this week by those of Chicago's Chris Boniol, whose job might have been saved last week by Bryan Robinson. If it weren't for Robinson's game-winning field goal block, Boniol's prior miss from 34 yards out would have cost them the game.

Key matchups
  • Minnesota DTs Ball & Williams vs. Chicago OC Olin Kreutz
    The Vikings must collapse the pocket and force the quarterback to make plays on the move. Kreutz is quietly having a solid sophomore season and his quickness will serve him well against this active duo.

  • Chicago DC Terry Cousin vs. Minnesota WR Cris Carter
    Cousin is the Bears best slot cover man and Carter will be one of his toughest tests of the season. Cousin played admirably last week against Antonio Freeman and his pass interference call in the red-zone saved a sure touchdown. Carter, who has emerged as George's security blanket, needs to use his size to post up the smaller Cousin. These two have exchanged words in the past.

  • Minnesota RB Moe Williams vs. Chicago MLB Sean Harris
    Williams is deceptively powerful for a third down back and has filled a key role in the Vikings offense. Harris made a couple of huge plays in the first meeting between these teams and he must play well in space when Minnesota spreads the field.

    Minnesota will win if...
  • They can get a couple of quick touchdowns and force the Bears to come from behind. The Bears cannot afford to abandon their balanced game plan early and instability at quarterback makes it difficult to run a hurry-up attack. The Bears are dangerous if they are allowed to stick around.

  • They can protect George and let him throw in rhythm. George is a streaky passer who tends to fold against a good pass rush. The Bears' underrated front four must continue to produce.

  • They get good play from their reserve defensive backs. The Bears' wide-open offense will force some of the young members of the Vikings secondary into key roles and they must answer the call.

    Chicago will win if...

  • PK Chris Boniol can find his range. There is no way the Bears will run away with this one so they must get their points when they have the chance. Boniol's miss last week should have cost them the game.

  • Their running back rotation continues to produce. All four the Bears RBs bring different strengths to the field and it should keep the Vikings off-balance. The Bears could use some more big plays from Milburn.

  • They execute in the red-zone. Jim Miller completed a crucial touchdown pass last week and they will need more plays like that one in order to pull off the season sweep. Coach Dick Jauron's lack of confidence in the kicking game might give the offense four tries inside the 20.

    The War Room edge
    The Vikings have improved drastically since the first meeting and it will be more difficult for the Bears to expose George than Cunningham. The Bears are playing good defense and their confidence level is high coming off the victory in Lambeau but they are catching a hot Minnesota offense. Last week, the Vikings proved that they have the talent to play through lulls and still come away with a win. Minnesota will simply outscore the Bears in this one.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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