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Thursday, November 11
War Room: Chargers at Raiders

The War Room

San Diego offense vs. Oakland defense

CHARGERS OFFENSE

Ranking in the NFL:
Run 30

Pass 21

Tot. Yds. 28

Scoring 22

Int's allowed 18

Sacks allowed 25

RAIDERS DEFENSE

Ranking in the NFL:

vs. Run 11

vs. Pass 25

Total yds. allowed 18

# of Ints. 13

# of Sacks 24

Turnover differential -2

The Chargers have a huge task trying figuring out how to score points on offense against one of the best defenses in the league. Without RB Natrone Means in the lineup, they have had to use a running back by committee approach, which isn't working. They are getting dismal production at the quarterback position, having turned over the ball 18 times in the last four games -- sixteen of which have come at the hands of QBs Jim Harbaugh and Erik Kramer.

Without any true big play weapons at wide receiver, the only hope for San Diego is to figure out a way to run the football and control the clock. Oakland's defense will attack them with their front seven, and if needed, they could commit the safeties to the run and blitz package, as Charles Woodson and Eric Allen will have no problem covering the San Diego wide receivers without help. Oakland's DT duo of Darrell Russell and Russell Maryland should be able to get great inside penetration, which will be a problem for immobile quarterbacks Harbaugh and Kramer.

The key for the Raiders is to be patient on defense and not have defensive breakdowns that give the Chargers easy plays. San Diego is incapable of mounting enough long scoring drives to stay competitive.

Oakland offense vs. San Diego defense

	RAIDERS OFFENSE
	Ranking in the NFL:
	Run	4
	Pass	12
	Tot. Yds.	5
	Scoring	17
	Int's allowed	6
	Sacks allowed	26

	CHARGERS DEFENSE
	Ranking in the NFL:
	vs. Run	6
	vs. Pass	14
	Total yds. allowed	8
	# of Ints.	9
	# of Sacks	20
	Turnover differential	-15

The bye week should help the Raiders as much as anybody in the NFL, as QB Rich Gannon and RB Tyrone Wheatley are recovering from nagging injuries. Head coach Jon Gruden will continue to employ a ball-control attack that concentrates on time of possession and positive yardage on first and second down.

If Wheatley is ready to go, he and Napoleon Kaufman give the Raiders a solid one-two punch at running back, and the key will be to wear down the San Diego defense early to set up later opportunities for a play action passing game.

The Chargers gave up their first 100-yard rushing day in 28 games last week to Denver's rookie Olandis Gary, and although they are still a very formidable defense, they appear to be starting to tire, and they are a little bit beat up in the secondary. The problem with this defense is that it has an offense that has no ball-control abilities, has too many "3 and outs" and as a result, the Charger defense is on the field entirely too much. Oakland will try to take advantage of this by pounding the ball and putting themselves in a lot of third and short situations.

Look for Rich Gannon to use WR Tim Brown on a lot of crossing patterns and safe throws, while WR James Jett should be able to catch a couple of deep balls on the Charger secondary, especially if Oakland is able to run the ball early and force the Chargers to commit eight defenders in the box. Chargers' outstanding LB Junior Seau must use all of his range to get to the run game of the Raiders, especially if Tyrone Wheatley gets outside.

Special teams

NFL RANK
Category	SD	OAK
Punt return avg.	27	7
Kickoff return avg.	29	26
Opp. punt return avg.	13	30
Opp. kickoff ret. avg.	29	21
Time of possession	13	7

In last week's loss to Denver, there was no single play that hurt the team more than Chris Penn's muffed punt -- on a fair catch, no less The Chargers' offense is struggling and it needs as much help as possible from the return teams. The coverage units aren't playing up their capabilities either, as they surrendered a 46-yard kickoff return last week as well. One area the Chargers do have a definite advantage is at punter, where Darren Bennett (42.5 avg.) is clearly out-kicking Oakland's Leo Araguz, who has the fifth worst average in the league (40.6). Even worse, Araguz is struggling to get hang-time, which often affords opposing return men an opportunity to get upfield before making their first move -- a fact that is underscored by the Raiders' 30th ranked punt cover unit.

Key matchups

San Diego QBs (Kramer or Harbaugh) vs. Oakland defensive coordinator Willie Shaw
Shaw is probably "licking his chops" in anticipation of a big day against a struggling San Diego offense. Although Kramer and Harbaugh are veterans, they are not making good decisions, they do not have a run game, and they are sitting ducks for an aggressive Raider defense that will strike from every direction.

Oakland WRs Tim Brown and James Jett vs. San Diego DCs
Jett is the vertical threat and Brown is the possession receiver, and both could have a nice day against a San Diego secondary that is a little bit beat up and struggling. The key to this matchup will be the up-front pressure applied by the San Diego front-seven. If they can get to QB Rich Gannon, it will force him to throw the ball early, and not allow Brown and Jett to finish their routes.

Raider DTs Darrell Russell and Russell Maryland vs. Charger OGs
The Raiders are not only physical defensively inside, but they also have excellent quickness, and they should be able to get penetration that will not only flush the Charger QB's out of the pocket, but will also stop the run game. In order for San Diego to have any chance to move the ball on offense, they must be able to neutralize Russell and Maryland.

San Diego will win if...

Their defense creates 1 or 2 TDs on their own. With an offense that appears incapable of scoring, Junior Seau & Co. may have to take things into their own hands. A fumble recovery, an interception, a big special teams play, etc. may be necessary to get points on the board.

They make a big play in the kicking game. The Raiders are a little vulnerable in the kicking game, and with an offense that is struggling, San Diego will take points any way they can get them. A big return could be the difference in this game that may wind up being low-scoring and very physical.

They stop the Raider running game. Raider head coach Jon Gruden does not want to put the football in QB Rich Gannon's hands. He would like to pound it at the Charger defense and play great Raider defense. If San Diego can neutralize Tyrone Wheatley and Napoleon Kaufman and force Gannon to go vertical, it could take the Raiders out of their game plan and disrupt their offensive flow.

Oakland will win if...

They get their run game on track. The Raiders' bye last week couldn't have come at a better time. Hopefully, RB Tyrone Wheatley will be healthy, and the 1-2 combo of Wheatley and Kaufman should be effective against a San Diego defense that was once invincible, but is starting to show some signs of vulnerability. Early success in the run game will set the passing game and play action up for Rich Gannon later.

They make a couple of big plays in the passing game. The Chargers are very aggressive in their run defense, and they will likely commit "eight in the box" to stop the Raiders. Raider QB Rich Gannon is excellent at play action play-fakes, and if he can catch the Charges in a couple of blitzes, he could exploit single m/m coverage matchups with his wide receivers, Brown and Jett.

They play mistake-free defense and don't give up the cheap play. The Chargers are incapable of scoring enough on offense to beat the Raiders, unless the Raiders help them. Playing sound and smart, fundamental football will win this game, and the only chance San Diego has offensively, is for the Raiders to self-destruct on defense, which is not likely.

The War Room edge
The Chargers' once invincible defense is starting to show some cracks. Partly because of injuries, but more importantly, due to an offense that can't move the football, can't score any points, and leaves them on the field too much. This is a game that will feature two outstanding defenses, and the Raiders are more equipped at this point in the season to run the football and control the clock, which in turn keeps their defense fresher. This has all the makings of a very ugly offensive game, but it will not lack for hitting and aggressiveness. The Raiders are not a great team, but this is the kind of game that is very winnable for them.

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