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Thursday, November 11
War Room: 49ers at Saints


San Francisco offense vs. New Orleans defense
49ERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 9
Pass 24
Tot. Yds. 20
Scoring 19
Int's allowed 11
Sacks allowed 18
   
SAINTS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 19
vs. Pass 10
Total yds. allowed 12
# of Ints. 7
# of Sacks 26
Turnover differential -13
After viewing film of the Saints' pathetic performance against Tampa Bay, look for the Niners to establish the ground game early. The Saints couldn't stop Mike Alstott, who recorded 52 of his 117 yards on the final drive, when they needed to get the ball back for their offense, but RB Charlie Garner does not pose the same problems for a defense.

Garner chewed up a career-high 166 yards on 20 carries behind an improving offensive line, but unlike Alstott, he has the speed to break more big plays once he gets into the secondary. The bye week clearly did wonders for injured guys like OC Chris Dalman and LOT Dave Fiore, whose health have been an ongoing concern for coach Steve Mariucci.

Expect a lot of quick-hitters up the middle, as San Francisco will attack the same area that gave the Saints trouble last week. In the last meeting between these teams, the inside trio of MLB Chris Bordano and DTs Wayne Martin and LaRoi Glover combined for only six tackles.

Contrary to most slashing runners, Garner has enjoyed better success this season on natural grass (5.7 avg. per carry) than turf (3.4) so don't necessarily assume he will match his numbers from Week 2 (160 total yds.).

If they are not successful stopping Garner early, the Saints will be forced to use an extra run defender, leaving their DCs in man coverage on WRs Terrell Owens and Jerry Rice. Because Jeff Garcia has been struggling with his accuracy, the Niners have opted to give Steve Stenstrom a chance to run this offense. Stenstrom needs to test a Saints secondary that was shredded by Trent Dilfer a week ago.

The health of LDC Ashley Ambrose is a big concern in the Saints' training room. Last week, Ambrose was beat on a 62-yard touchdown by Jacquez Green and the team feels that play wouldn't have happened if he didn't miss so many practice reps with a bum ankle. Although he's the Saints' top cover man, look for the 49ers to target Ambrose early in hope of connecting on a similar big play. Rice has been held in check on underneath routes all season but this might be the game that Mariucci lets him test his aging legs.

If they are to stay in this game, the Saints desperately need to shore up their problems on third down. Tampa converted 11-of-16 (69 percent) of their third down opportunities last week-unacceptable against a team that has converted just over 37 percent all season. Don't look for the Niners to have consecutive games without a touchdown after going 82 straight with at least one.

New Orleans offense vs. San Francisco defense
SAINTS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 14
Pass 17
Tot. Yds. 14
Scoring 25
Int's allowed 13
Sacks allowed 14
   
49ERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 18
vs. Pass 29
Total yds. allowed 28
# of Ints. 10
# of Sacks 15
Turnover differential -8
This is the week that Ditka will finally make the move to QB Danny Wuerffel but the change won't do any good if the Saints can't run the football. Too much was made of RB Ricky Williams' 179 yard performance two weeks ago against Cleveland. Considering that the Browns are allowing 172.9 yards per game on the ground, the game looks a little less impressive. Tampa held Williams to 41 yards on 14 carries (2.9 avg.) but the biggest reasons for the collapse were injuries to starting OG's Wally Williams and Chris Naeole. San Francisco will surely stack the line of scrimmage in order to force Ditka out of his game plan.

RB Williams, who had 22 carries for 80 yards in Week 2 against the Niners, could be helped by the possible return of Naeole. If he does come back, Tom Ackerman will fill-in at left guard. RDT Brentson Buckner, who now starts because of Junior Bryant's move to left end, tends to wear down late in games if he's not properly rested, which gives the Saints a slight advantage when they run behind the left side.

In order to prevent teams from walking up a safety, the Saints must start throwing the ball to their wide receivers. Wuerffel will basically be setting himself up to fail if he ignores WRs Keith Poole and Eddie Kennison the way Billy Joe Hobert did a week ago. RBs Williams and Lamar Smith led the team with four receptions apiece against the Bucs and Poole, who caught a 59-yard pass in the last meeting against the 49ers, averaged less than eight yards on three catches.

The loss of FS Lance Shulters devastated the Niners in last Sunday's loss to Pittsburgh. Replacement Zach Bronson doesn't have Shulters' ball skills and he was a step slow to provide help on a few occasions. The Saints would be smart to attack RDE Pierson Prioleau, who started his first game last week, with one of their speed receivers. Prioleau didn't allow Steeler receivers to get behind him last week but he's raw and can be set up by quality double-moves.

Wuerffel should have plenty of time to make his progressions against a Niners defense that has notched only 15 sacks all season -- second fewest in the league. The Niners never came close to getting a hand on Billy Joe Hobert early in the season.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category SF NO
Punt return avg. 31 18
Kickoff return avg. 12 25
Opp. punt return avg. 5 2
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 31 16
Time of possession 19 10
The Saints kick cover team looked shaky on the opening kickoff last week although a Yo Murphy fumble bailed them out. The Niners haven't received anything from their kick return men recently and R.W. McQuarters won't pose much a problem on punts if he continues to run backwards. New Orleans P Tommy Barnhardt doesn't get much distance but his great hang-time usually yields a fair catch. Saints KOR Troy Davis, whose fumble last week led to a Tampa score, has a long of just 35 yards all season. Considering the footing and monsoon-like conditions, it's hard to blame Niners PK Wade Richey for last week's missed 49-yard attempt -- his first of the season.

Key matchups
  • San Francisco DC R.W. McQuarters vs. New Orleans WR Keith Poole
    Last week, McQuarters was in good position against the Steelers' receivers but he didn't make many plays on the ball. McQuarters usually has the luxury of using his catchup speed but that won't be the case against a burner like Poole.

  • New Orleans LDT Wayne Martin vs. San Francisco ROG Jeremy Newberry
    Martin always seems to play well against the Niners and his strength inside will pose problems for a finesse guy like Newberry.

  • San Francisco WRs vs. New Orleans secondary
    The Niners' passing game has never looked more out of sync and the receivers must start getting better separation. The Saints secondary was embarrassed by Trent Dilfer last week and must rebound with a better effort this week.

    San Francisco will win if...
  • The offensive line is able to open holes for Garner. With the passing game struggling to find a rhythm, the Niners need to run the football to be effective. The Saints should be banged up after facing Tampa's Mike Alstott last Sunday.

  • The defense doesn't allow too many yards after contact. New Orleans' Williams is beginning to run behind his pads better each week, which means the Niners must forget going for the big hit and concentrate on wrapping up.

  • The running backs can handle their blitz pickup assignments. The Saints will get after Garcia and the onus will be on Beasley and Phillips to recognize where the pressure is coming from.

    New Orleans will win if...

  • They can stay out of third-and-long situations. The Saints don't have the weapons or the consistency at quarterback to execute in these situations. It will be up to Williams to gain positive yardage on early downs.

  • They aren't overly predictable on offense. Ditka's ball-control attack can easily be stopped if the Saints don't mix in some vertical passes. New Orleans must take some shots downfield to Poole and Kennison against the Niners' revolving door secondary.

  • They get production from their linebackers. Without Mark Fields in the lineup the Saints haven't been able to stop the run. MLB Chris Bordano must do a better job of taking on lead blockers.

    The War Room edge
    The Saints will make this one interesting because they should be able to run the football. This will not be your typical San Francisco rout. Ditka's team is stinging from the worst beating they've suffered all season but don't look for them to fold their tents. Mariucci & Co. are embarrassed for not scoring a touchdown after going 82 games with at least one six-pointer. A couple of big plays in the passing game will make the difference for San Francisco. Ditka's freefall continues.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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