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Wednesday, November 17 War Room: Falcons at Buccaneers The War Room Atlanta offense vs. Tampa Bay defense
The loss of RB Jamal Anderson has crippled the Falcons 30th ranked run game but they can't concede the ground game and expect to win on Sunday. RB Ken Oxendine must run tougher inside and pickup as many yards as he can because Tampa's team speed will negate the outside threat of RB Byron Hanspard. The Falcons have rushed for fewer than 50 yards in three of the past four games and it's difficult to see them breaking that trend against a run defense that is holding opponents to 83.2 yards per game. LB's Derrick Brooks and Hardy Nickerson are both coming off their best games of the season, combining for 29 tackles, an interception, a forced fumble, and three passes defensed. Atlanta QB Chris Chandler will be under pressure to get the ball away quickly against Tampa's fierce pass rush. The Falcons need to go downfield more often in the passing game to soften up the Bucs run defense but that will be difficult if Chandler isn't provided sufficient time in the pocket. Atlanta's yards per completion percentage is down from a league-high 15.8 a year ago to only 13.1 this season, mostly due to the lack of a vertical receiver but chemistry problems up front have also hurt. Look for the Bucs' front four to have a huge day against an offensive line that is still struggling to get on the same page. Defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin has experimented by shifting LDE Chidi Ahanotu to tackle on passing downs in order to prevent teams from doubling DT Warren Sapp. After going without a single tackle in two games, Sapp rebounded against the Chiefs by recording a sack and a forced fumble -- which he recovered himself. Tampa Bay set a franchise record last week against the Chiefs by holding them to five yards passing in the first half. If the Bucs can get sufficient pressure from their defensive line, WR Terrance Mathis & Co. will have a hard time finding soft spots in Tampa's zone defense. Tampa Bay offense vs. Atlanta defense
Coach Tony Dungy was irate with Mike Alstott following his three-fumble effort against the Chiefs but don't look for the Bucs to stray from their ball-control game plan. Tampa had a 37:17 run-pass ratio last week, including runs on 13 of 20 plays to start the game. Atlanta's No. 2 run defense from a year ago has fallen off drastically this season, surrendering 127.3 yards per game (4.2 avg.). The bye week allowed this unit to get healthy and they must start getting better penetration inside with DTs Travis Hall and Shane Dronett. Atlanta should target the LOG platoon of Todd Washington and Jorge Diaz, particularly when the latter is in the game. RB Warrick Dunn's workload increased last week due to Alstott's troubles but he wasn't able to provide the spark that Dungy had hoped. Dunn's 3.1 season rushing average is a reflection of too many negative yardage carries. Dunn will have success this week if he doesn't dance too much behind the line of scrimmage and focuses on the cutback lanes created by Atlanta's aggressive, over-pursuing defense. Despite a couple of poor reads and errant throws, QB Trent Dilfer helped his team pull out the win last week. For the second straight week, the Dilfer-to-Jacquez Green combo made an impact. Green, who is slowly emerging as the go-to guy in the Bucs' passing game, has caught 18 passes for 349 yards and two touchdowns the past three games. Those figures are amazing considering that Green had just 11 receptions and 123 yards in the first six contests. Look for the Bucs to attack DC Ronnie Bradford, who has struggled badly defending the deep ball. FS Eugene Robinson has been a step slow providing help all season and Bradford doesn't have the speed to stick with Green if he beats him off the line of scrimmage. Another weapon that finally surfaced for the Bucs last week was TE Dave Moore. It's no coincidence that Moore was able to find a vacated area in Kansas City's coverage and race 35 yards for a touchdown. Green's vertical presence will force Robinson to position himself deeper in coverage, which should again open up the middle of the field for Moore. Tampa will get a boost this week from the return of WR's Karl Williams and Bert Emmanuel, who have both missed significant time with injuries. Now that Dilfer is starting to find his range on the deep ball, Emmanuel might serve his purpose in this offense. Special teams
With two long touchdowns the past two weeks, Green is emerging as the deep threat that the Bucs have lacked for years. The Bucs' running game will force Buchanan to keep an eye in the backfield, which should afford Green an opportunity to get behind him.
The Falcons will not be able to run the football against this defense if Christian isn't able to neutralize Nickerson between the tackles. Nickerson fills the hole quickly and Christian can't afford to be stood up at the line of scrimmage in the path of RB's Oxendine and Hanspard.
Lynch is a tremendous run defender but he becomes a liability in coverage if he is responsible for the deep middle of the field. Kansas City burned Lynch on play-action last week, so look for the Falcons take some shots downfield to Dwight. Atlanta will win if...
Tampa Bay will win if...
The War Room edge
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