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Wednesday, November 17
War Room: Falcons at Buccaneers


Atlanta offense vs. Tampa Bay defense
FALCONS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 30
Pass 12
Tot. Yds. 25
Scoring 29
Int's allowed 10
Sacks allowed 36
   
BUCCANEERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 4
vs. Pass 6
Total yds. allowed 6
# of Ints. 8
# of Sacks 26
Turnover differential -17
The bye week gave the Falcons plenty of time to evaluate their first half efforts. They must come out and play with a purpose early on Sunday. Atlanta has allowed their opponents to score first in eight of nine games thus far this season and they can't afford to fall behind against the Bucs' swarming defense.

The loss of RB Jamal Anderson has crippled the Falcons 30th ranked run game but they can't concede the ground game and expect to win on Sunday. RB Ken Oxendine must run tougher inside and pickup as many yards as he can because Tampa's team speed will negate the outside threat of RB Byron Hanspard.

The Falcons have rushed for fewer than 50 yards in three of the past four games and it's difficult to see them breaking that trend against a run defense that is holding opponents to 83.2 yards per game. LB's Derrick Brooks and Hardy Nickerson are both coming off their best games of the season, combining for 29 tackles, an interception, a forced fumble, and three passes defensed.

Atlanta QB Chris Chandler will be under pressure to get the ball away quickly against Tampa's fierce pass rush. The Falcons need to go downfield more often in the passing game to soften up the Bucs run defense but that will be difficult if Chandler isn't provided sufficient time in the pocket. Atlanta's yards per completion percentage is down from a league-high 15.8 a year ago to only 13.1 this season, mostly due to the lack of a vertical receiver but chemistry problems up front have also hurt.

Look for the Bucs' front four to have a huge day against an offensive line that is still struggling to get on the same page. Defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin has experimented by shifting LDE Chidi Ahanotu to tackle on passing downs in order to prevent teams from doubling DT Warren Sapp. After going without a single tackle in two games, Sapp rebounded against the Chiefs by recording a sack and a forced fumble -- which he recovered himself.

Tampa Bay set a franchise record last week against the Chiefs by holding them to five yards passing in the first half. If the Bucs can get sufficient pressure from their defensive line, WR Terrance Mathis & Co. will have a hard time finding soft spots in Tampa's zone defense.

Tampa Bay offense vs. Atlanta defense
BUCCANEERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 7
Pass 24
Tot. Yds. 22
Scoring 24
Int's allowed 11
Sacks allowed 24
   
FALCONS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 25
vs. Pass 8
Total yds. allowed 16
# of Ints. 7
# of Sacks 22
Turnover differential -15
The Buccaneers can't afford another sloppy day like the one they had last week and expect to pull out a win. With their 17-10 victory over Kansas City, Tampa became just the fourth team this decade to overcome a six-turnover performance.

Coach Tony Dungy was irate with Mike Alstott following his three-fumble effort against the Chiefs but don't look for the Bucs to stray from their ball-control game plan. Tampa had a 37:17 run-pass ratio last week, including runs on 13 of 20 plays to start the game.

Atlanta's No. 2 run defense from a year ago has fallen off drastically this season, surrendering 127.3 yards per game (4.2 avg.). The bye week allowed this unit to get healthy and they must start getting better penetration inside with DTs Travis Hall and Shane Dronett. Atlanta should target the LOG platoon of Todd Washington and Jorge Diaz, particularly when the latter is in the game.

RB Warrick Dunn's workload increased last week due to Alstott's troubles but he wasn't able to provide the spark that Dungy had hoped. Dunn's 3.1 season rushing average is a reflection of too many negative yardage carries. Dunn will have success this week if he doesn't dance too much behind the line of scrimmage and focuses on the cutback lanes created by Atlanta's aggressive, over-pursuing defense.

Despite a couple of poor reads and errant throws, QB Trent Dilfer helped his team pull out the win last week. For the second straight week, the Dilfer-to-Jacquez Green combo made an impact. Green, who is slowly emerging as the go-to guy in the Bucs' passing game, has caught 18 passes for 349 yards and two touchdowns the past three games. Those figures are amazing considering that Green had just 11 receptions and 123 yards in the first six contests.

Look for the Bucs to attack DC Ronnie Bradford, who has struggled badly defending the deep ball. FS Eugene Robinson has been a step slow providing help all season and Bradford doesn't have the speed to stick with Green if he beats him off the line of scrimmage.

Another weapon that finally surfaced for the Bucs last week was TE Dave Moore. It's no coincidence that Moore was able to find a vacated area in Kansas City's coverage and race 35 yards for a touchdown. Green's vertical presence will force Robinson to position himself deeper in coverage, which should again open up the middle of the field for Moore.

Tampa will get a boost this week from the return of WR's Karl Williams and Bert Emmanuel, who have both missed significant time with injuries. Now that Dilfer is starting to find his range on the deep ball, Emmanuel might serve his purpose in this offense.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category ATL TB
Punt return avg. 23 13
Kickoff return avg. 22 17
Opp. punt return avg. 1 7
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 30 3
Time of possession 22 2
Tampa Bay will benefit from the return of Karl Williams on punts but he could have a hard time fielding a returnable ball against Atlanta's Dan Stryzinski, who has had just 17 attempts brought back this season. Bucs KOR Yo Murphy has a long of 55 yards this season but that could change against the Falcons' shoddy coverage unit that has already allowed a pair of touchdowns this season. Atlanta RS Tim Dwight had a 99-yard touchdown called back two weeks ago versus Jacksonville and it seems every time he hits a seam the Falcons get flagged for holding. This one could get interesting if inconsistent PK's Martin Gramatica and Morten Anderson are forced to decide the outcome.

Key matchups
  • Tampa Bay WR Jacquez Green vs. Atlanta DC Ray Buchanan
    With two long touchdowns the past two weeks, Green is emerging as the deep threat that the Bucs have lacked for years. The Bucs' running game will force Buchanan to keep an eye in the backfield, which should afford Green an opportunity to get behind him.

  • Atlanta FB Bob Christian vs. Tampa Bay MLB Hardy Nickerson
    The Falcons will not be able to run the football against this defense if Christian isn't able to neutralize Nickerson between the tackles. Nickerson fills the hole quickly and Christian can't afford to be stood up at the line of scrimmage in the path of RB's Oxendine and Hanspard.

  • Atlanta WR Tim Dwight vs. Tampa Bay SS John Lynch
    Lynch is a tremendous run defender but he becomes a liability in coverage if he is responsible for the deep middle of the field. Kansas City burned Lynch on play-action last week, so look for the Falcons take some shots downfield to Dwight.

    Atlanta will win if...
  • RBs Oxendine and Hanspard can generate some semblance of a running game. The Falcons would like to run a lot of play-action passes on first down but their receivers won't find many seams if this duo doesn't pose a threat. This could be asking too much from a team averaging 70.4 yards per game on the ground.

  • The defense takes advantage of a shaky Buccaneer offense. After last week's three-fumble performance, FB Mike Alstott will either be running tentatively or he will be susceptible to getting the ball stripped. Hence, the Falcons must either shut down the run or create turnovers. One the two must be accomplished.

  • The secondary doesn't give up the big play. The Bucs have pulled out close wins the past two weeks with the help of two 50+ yard passing plays to Jacquez Greeen. Green's 164-yard performance last week was the first 100-yard receiving effort by Buccaneer in over a year. Ronnie Bradford has struggled all season so look for Dilfer to go Green's way.

    Tampa Bay will win if...

  • QB Dilfer continues to get his tight ends involved. The play-action passing game is a big part of the Bucs' offense but prior to last week they struggled getting the ball to Dave Moore and Patrick Hape. Going underneath will open up more things on the perimeter.

  • They take care of the football. Last Sunday, an early fumble deep in their own territory setup the Chiefs' only scoring opportunity of the first half and a pair of turnovers in the red-zone cost them points. The Bucs' offensive unit (i.e. Mike Alstott) can't continue to put their defense on the field for such long stretches.

  • The front-four get a better push up front. They only got to Elvis Grbac twice last week and they'll face another immobile quarterback in Atlanta's Chris Chandler. Tampa's focus should be getting a strong push up the middle in order to force Chandler to make plays outside the pocket, where he throws the majority of his interceptions. Atlanta could be playing without OG's Gene Williams and Greg Bishop.

    The War Room edge
    The Bucs are starting to play with more emotion and intensity, but more importantly, Dilfer is connecting downfield. The Falcons should benefit from the bye week from a health standpoint but there is no denying that this is a defeated football team. It would take a coaching miracle for Reeves to motivate the same troops that walked off the field after the loss to Jacksonville. The Bucs believe they are on the right track and the Falcons simply don't believe in themselves. Buccaneers will roll.

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