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Wednesday, November 17
War Room: Bills at Jets


Buffalo offense vs. New York defense
BILLS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 2
Pass 19
Tot. Yds. 10
Scoring 15
Int's allowed 11
Sacks allowed 16
   
JETS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 20
vs. Pass 22
Total yds. allowed 22
# of Ints. 11
# of Sacks 17
Turnover differential -7
Buffalo's recent diversified scheme has untracked this unit. Offensive coordinator Joe Panos has been has been brilliant in his precise game planning over the past two weeks, but now the challenge is to overcome the loss of RB Jonathan Linton, and remain productive on the ground with Antowain Smith carrying the load with an ailing turf toe. The Bills have surprisingly climbed to the top of the league in rushing, averaging 135.4-yards per game, and have done so with a split duty running back situation and an offensive line that is finally back to full strength and playing together as a unit as originally planned.

This week, Panos' game plan may be a bit more condensed. Conventional thinking would say to open it up with the current condition of the running back corps and try to gain the yardage in the air, however, against a Jets team that is having trouble putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks anyway, the necessity to open it up to neutralize the rush is not there.

Moreover, FB Sam Gash has been phenomenal the past couple of weeks as the lead blocker. He seems to be playing with new passion and is bulldozing through the intended hole, rarely missing his assignment.

The Bills will not run the ball 30 times, but if they can at least get Smith 20 carries, it will allow the passing game more time to operate. Unfortunately for the Bills, they are catching the Jets at a time where everything seems to be coming together on the defensive side of the ball.

The biggest difference for the Jets has been the emergence of CB Marcus Coleman and the resurgence ILB Marvin Jones. Coleman has wrestled away the starting right corner job from Ray Mickens, shoring up a secondary that was causing the front seven to have to do too much. What this has done is allow the linebacking corps to spend more time focusing on stuffing the run and creating pressure instead of having to drop into coverage and worry about their flat and underneath responsibility. Jones, after missing last season because of major knee surgery, has raised his level of play the past couple of weeks, and is showing the ability to get through trash and make more plays against the run. Add in a lot of twists and stunts up front with an occasional 4-3 defensive set, and this defense is now an active and efficient group.

The Bills goal is to keep the Jets defense on its toes. The emergence of Peerless Price as a solid No. 2 receiver means that the Bills passing game is capable of spreading the field and putting a ton of pressure on opposing secondaries. Even when teams have been able to take the receivers out of plays on the outside, QB Doug Flutie is becoming a lot more adept at throwing the ball over the middle of the field and utilizing his big, athletic tight end.

Expect to see a lot of production underneath and in the middle of the field against the Jets, as New York looks to take away Flutie's outside option and will vacate the middle of the field with their linebackers coming on the blitz.

The one advantage the Jets do have coming into this game is that Jonathan Linton, who is out for at least two more weeks, was the team's top receiver out of the backfield, which will really limit Flutie's dump off options in the passing game.

New York Jets offense vs. Buffalo defense
JETS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 1
Pass 27
Tot. Yds. 19
Scoring 21
Int's allowed 13
Sacks allowed 26
   
BILLS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 2
vs. Pass 5
Total yds. allowed 3
# of Ints. 8
# of Sacks 19
Turnover differential -6
The Jets ability to establish a running game has been the difference for its offense over the past few weeks. RB Curtis Martin has shown the ability to almost single-handedly create his own running room because of his technically sound running style. Martin has great vision and has been patient enough to wait for a hole to open up in front of him. The Jets have been running a lot of zone plays, where Martin gets the ball five-to-six yards in the backfield, giving him a chance to find the hole and burst through it.

The Jets are going to have a difficult time running the ball between the tackles on Sunday because of the way Buffalo has dominated up front in the last two weeks. NT Ted Washington is clogging the middle and allowing ILB's Sam Cowart and John Holecek to flow freely to the ball.

Buffalo was having trouble early in the season against teams that ran the ball downhill because DE's Bruce Smith and Phil Hansen were not stacking up well at the line of scrimmage. It seems that Smith and Hansen are now rounding into shape and have been spelled for some valuable minutes by reserves Pat Williams, Shawn Price, Marcellus Wiley and Sean Moran. This is allowing the veteran defensive ends to stay fresh later in games, and it is giving Smith and Williams a chance to be more productive as pass rushers.

Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis has been working tirelessly to find a way to move the ball down the field in the passing game without putting his young quarterback, Ray Lucas, in jeopardy of throwing into coverage.

The Jets have had to condense their offense, especially their receivers' routes, in order to run a more risk passing scheme. Weis has designed a passing attack that features an abundance of underneath routes with short-to-intermediate reads to one-half of the field. WR's Wayne Chrebet and Keyshawn Johnson have been motioning back and forth to the same side of the field to flood a zone. Chrebet has been running a lot of underneath routes, while Johnson has been working the ten-to-fifteen yards downfield.

The Bills are going to have to run a lot of man/zone coverages underneath to protect themselves against the Jets highly efficient passing attack. Thomas Smith and Ken Irvin will play press coverage underneath with help from the safeties if the Jet's receivers break vertically.

Expect to see the Bills attacking the Jets backside with a heavy dose of combination blitzes and stunts. The loss of OT Jason Fabini has forced the injured Jumbo Elliot into the left tackle position, where he is susceptible to speed off the edge. DE Bruce Smith and OLB Gabe Northern are crucial elements in the Bills pass rush. Smith is going to be called upon to give the Bills a powerful rush from the backside, allowing Northern to split the left tackle and left guard.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category BUF NYJ
Punt return avg. 7 22
Kickoff return avg. 27 5
Opp. punt return avg. 10 8
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 19 29
Time of possession 4 11
Steve Christie has been a bit erratic this season, missing five of his first 24 kicks, but he is still one of the top kickers in the league. This is the time of the season where he excels because of his ability to handle the weather conditions in Buffalo. Kevin Williams is giving the Bills a great boost in the return game, averaging 11.1-yards per return. John Hall seems to be getting his mechanics back after getting off to a rough start. Hall is now 13-of-17, and coach Bill Parcells is gaining more confidence in the kicker as the season progresses. Tom Tupa is one of the most valuable weapons in the league. Tupa, who has a league-leading 39.3-net average, could become the first punter in 27 years to produce a 40-yard net.

Key matchups
  • Buffalo FB Sam Gash vs. New York ILB's Bryan Cox and Marvin Jones
    Gash has been one of the major reason that the Bills have had a resurgence in their running game. He is doing an excellent job of taking the right angles to find his man, and he has been springing his back with great isolation blocks. Cox and Jones are active inside linebackers that do an excellent job of shedding the block and getting to the ball carrier versus the run. This will be an interesting iso-block situation that will dictate the Bills ability to run the ball on the Jets defense.

  • Buffalo OC Jerry Ostroski vs. New York NT Jason Ferguson
    Ostroski, a former right tackle, is adapting quite nicely to his new position. Ostroski is a wide-bodied 325-pounder who can use his body to stop or at least slow down nose tackles when playing head up. Ferguson is a top run-stuffing NT that will take up space in the middle of the Bills offensive line. This matchup is another crucial one concerning the Bills ability to run the football on Sunday, because of Ostroski cannot get good position and get a surge on Ferguson, there will be little room to run between the tackles.

  • New York WR Wayne Chrebet vs. Buffalo DC Ken Irvin
    This is a critical matchup that will be the difference in the Jets ability to throw the ball on Sunday. Because Keyshawn Johnson is the playmaker that he is, the Bills are going to be forced to roll coverage to his side, leaving Irvin alone in many one-on-one situations. Ideally, Irvin would like to play soft coverage to keep Chrebet in front of him, but Chrebet does most of his damage underneath. Irvin is going to have to play more bump-and-run at the line of scrimmage, even though he does not have help behind him, because the Bills cannot afford to give Chrebet room to work underneath.

    Buffalo will win if...
  • NT Ted Washington forces the double-team up front. The Bills linebacker have had some trouble stacking at the line of scrimmage as well as finding seams to attack in the blitz package. If Washington can force the double team from OC Kevin Mawae and one of the Jets offensive guards, it will free up Sam Cowart and John Holecek to be more productive in the middle.

  • OLB's Gabe Northern and Sam Rogers become more productive as pass rushers. The key for the Bills on Sunday is to get pressure on QB Ray Lucas, forcing him to make quick decisions with the ball. Because of DE Bruce Smith's deterioration as a pass rusher, offenses have been able to give more attention to the linebackers on the blitz. Northern and Rogers need to come up with big games in the pass rush to throw off the tempo of the Jets passing game and take Lucas out of the game mentally.

  • Offensive coordinator Joe Panos keeps the game plan diversified. The Bills have been extremely successful the past couple of weeks, because their game plan has been diverse. They have been running the ball on first and second downs, and they have also opened it up by emptying the backfield and creating more room for Flutie to work. There seems to be a good rhythm in the Bills offense right now, and a lot of that can be attributed to the fact that they are not very predictable.

    New York Jets will win if...

  • The secondary plays a lot of cloud coverage on Eric Moulds. Cloud coverage is when you lock a corner on the receiver, but also cheat a safety over to that side to give help to the corner in the deep-third. The Jets are going to have to give their corners help on Mould, who has established himself as one of the true great deep threats in the NFL.

  • Defensive coordinator Bill Belichick continues to mix up the defensive fronts to create more pass rush pressure. The Jets, who have bounced back and forth between three-and-four man defensive fronts under head coach Bill Parcells, came into the season dedicated to running a 3-4 scheme. But in the past two games, they flashed the old 4-3 look. It worked well last week, as they confused the Cardinals' young offensive line with various stunts.

  • FB Richie Anderson can clear holes in the running game and can pick up the blitz in pass protection. Anderson was thought to be more of an F-back-a mix between a tight end and a fullback -- but he has emerged as a key blocker for the Jets this season. Against the 3-4 defensive set of the Bills, Anderson plays a key role in both the passing and running game because he will be responsible for one of the inside linebackers for most of the contest.

    The War Room edge
    The Buffalo Bills finally look to be in sync offensively, which is something the Jets have been striving for since the loss of QB Vinny Testaverde in Week 1. New York has the chance to play the spoiler for the rest of the season, and proved last week to New England that they cannot be taken lightly. The Bills are going to be able to run the ball on New York's 3-4 set, which will open up the play action and the passing game later in the game. The Jets will play very conservative offensively and their inability to make big plays down the field is going to give the Bills the opportunity to stack the line of scrimmage to stuff the run and pressure QB Ray Lucas. The Bills win this game on the road, but not without fending off a hard fought battle from the Jets.

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