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Wednesday, November 17
War Room: Lions at Packers


Detroit offense vs. Green Bay defense
LIONS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 25
Pass 9
Tot. Yds. 16
Scoring 9
Int's allowed 7
Sacks allowed 30
   
PACKERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 28
vs. Pass 11
Total yds. allowed 20
# of Ints. 18
# of Sacks 20
Turnover differential -7
It is still unclear who will start at QB for the Lions but it appears that backup Gus Frerotte has the best chance. Considering the pressure he was under all afternoon, Frerotte played well (24-39, 375 yds., 2 TD, 0 INT) in his first start last week against the Cardinals. The Lions' offensive line had its worst outing in several games, allowing five sacks against a Cardinals defense that had only 17 in their first eight games.

While Frerotte has filled in admirably, the Lions sorely miss Charlie Batch's ability to elude the rush and get rid of the ball. Frerotte took Detroit out of field goal range on two occasions last week by taking costly sacks. If the offensive line rebounds from last Sunday's disaster, it shouldn't have a tough time in pass protection against a non-existent Packers rush that has registered just 4.5 sacks in the past three games.

Green Bay's defensive line play has been atrocious, recording just one knockdown and one hurry against Dallas. Last week, with the Cowboys keying on SS LeRoy Butler, Defensive Coordinator Emmitt Thomas experimented with some position changes in passing situations. DC Tyrone Williams was moved to free safety, replacing Darren Sharper, who took his spot on the outside. This alignment enabled the Packers to use Sharper's athleticism on the blitz and it resulted in one sack and a couple of pressures.

Lost amidst WR Germaine Crowell's sensational start has been a glaring lack of concentration. Crowell has had far too many drops this season and a fumble in the red-zone last week cost the team points.

RB Greg Hill has played uninspired ball the past two weeks and the Lions need him to get re-energized if they have thoughts of stealing a win in Lambeau. The Packers, who are surrendering 130.3 yards per game on the ground, have been gashed the past three weeks and DT Santana Dotson's return from injury hasn't made an impact-or at least a positive one. Dotson's shoulder injury limits his ability inside, so look for the Lions to focus their running game between the tackles.

Green Bay did an excellent job of shutting down the run in the previous meeting between these two teams, holding the Lions to just 82 yards on 32 carries (2.6 avg.). Hill rushed only three times in that game and his quick burst up the middle could make a difference. Hill's effectiveness usually determines the outcome for Detroit, as he averages 4.6 in Lion victories and just 1.7 in losses. Keep in mind that Hill is a typical turf-back and tends to struggle on grass, averaging 0.7 yards per carry less on the natural surface.

Green Bay offense vs. Detroit defense
PACKERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 24
Pass 8
Tot. Yds. 9
Scoring 18
Int's allowed 15
Sacks allowed 23
   
LIONS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 10
vs. Pass 28
Total yds. allowed 23
# of Ints. 7
# of Sacks 31
Turnover differential -3
Green Bay's top priority will be to get RB Dorsey Levens on track early. Levens has averaged just 2.7 yards per carry (41 att., 110 yds.) over the past two games and their lack of depth at running back is becoming apparently clear. Although Levens has missed plenty of practice time the past couple of weeks, Green Bay is in no position to sit their workhorse to afford him enough time to heal.

Prior to last Sunday's loss at Arizona, Detroit's run defense was ranked third in the league. However, injuries to RDE Tracy Scroggings and OLB Chris Claiborne created a huge void and made them very susceptible on the weakside. Arizona's Michael Pittman rushed for 133 yards against them last week and Detroit could be in for another long afternoon if someone doesn't step up in place of Scroggins, who is again expected to be out of the lineup.

The Detroit Lions are a team that QB Brett Favre usually struggles against on the road but dominates at home. In 1998, Favre opened the season with a 121.5 passer rating at home against the Lions but he saw that mark drop to 60.2 in the Silverdome. Earlier this year, Favre's rating was 61.8 at Detroit and the Packers hope this venue trend continues on Sunday.

As noted last week, Favre's receivers need to do a better job of catching the ball. WR Corey Bradford let a sure touchdown slip through his hands on the team's second play from scrimmage last week -- one of four drops on the day for the sophomore deep threat. Favre has been erratically spraying the ball the past three weeks and his play likely won't improve until the offensive line does a better job in pass protection. Favre was knocked down nine times last week against Dallas, which far too much considering the Cowboys blitzed less than seven percent of the time.

With Scroggins out, look for the Lions to continue flopping LDE Robert Porcher at both end spots. Porcher was quiet last week until defensive coordinator Larry Peccatiello started using him against rookie LOT L.J. Shelton and the Pro Bowler responded with two second-half sacks. Green Bay OT's Earl Dotson and Ross Verba have been the only consistent blockers in recent weeks but they have also drawn too many penalties that have put the team in poor down-and-distance situations.

The Packers must get WR Antonio Freeman involved early. Freeman has scorched the Lions for 16 receptions, 321 yards and four touchdowns in the last three meetings between these clubs. Look for the Packers to use motion in order to get Freeman matched up against DC Bryant Westbrook, who has struggled badly since returning from injury.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category DET GB
Punt return avg. 15 28
Kickoff return avg. 15 30
Opp. punt return avg. 18 19
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 6 16
Time of possession 23 17
Green Bay's special teams continue to be some of the worst in the league. PK Ryan Longwell has had a field goal blocked in each of the past three games and the return units are equally inept. RS Desmond Howard will probably miss his second straight game with a hand injury and his replacements, Basil Mitchell and DeMond Parker, never had a seam to hit last week. Against Dallas, P Louis Aguiar had his best day since joining the team but he won't enjoy the same warm weather in Wisconsin that he had in Texas. Detroit's special teams were plagued with far too many holding penalties against the Cardinals and the coverage unit didn't play up to their usual level. P John Jett is quietly having a fine season. His ability to knock the ball inside the 20 and get good hang-time has been a key in the battle of field position.

Key matchups
  • Detroit MLB Stephen Boyd vs. Green Bay RB Dorsey Levens
    Detroit clearly missed WLB Chris Claiborne's athleticism on the outside last week and the Cardinals were able to take advantage with some backside screens. One of Boyd's biggest strengths is his anticipation and he must aggressively cover the flats on Sunday.

  • Green Bay FS Darren Sharper vs. Detroit RB's Irvin and Schlesinger
    To create pressure, the Packers blitzed Sharper more last week than at any time this season. Detroit's running backs must do a good job of reading and picking up the blitz when the Packers send members of their secondary.

  • Green Bay Defensive Coordinator Thomas vs. Detroit Offensive Coordinator Croom
    The Packers went with some different personnel packages last week against Dallas and those changes will make it tough for the Lions to devise a game plan for Sunday's showdown.

    Detroit will win if...
  • They put consistent pressure on QB Favre. The Lions have had success against the Packers when they are able to generate consistent pressure on Favre. Detroit's front four must rebound after an uninspired effort last week and the Packers' offensive line must do the same.

  • They attack the perimeter of the Packers' defense. Green Bay played soft on the corners last week, especially on third down, and Detroit must take advantage of the mismatches they have with WR's Crowell and Morton. Detroit would also be wise to run some backside screens to exploit WLB Jude Waddy, who has struggled since replacing Brian Williams.

  • The secondary does a better job of tackling. The Cardinals got way too many yards after the catch last week and Antonio Freeman has a history of breaking big plays against the Lions. Detroit must eliminate the long passes and force Green Bay's struggling offense to sustain methodical scoring drives.

    Green Bay will win if...

  • The defense clamps down in the red-zone. Even without WR Herman Moore, Detroit has done a pretty good job of converting in the red-zone because of smart play-calling by offensive coordinator Sylvester Croom. Green Bay must take away RB's Greg Hill and Sedrick Irvin and force the Lions to beat them through the air.

  • They can execute in the run game and keep their defense off the field. Green Bay must find a way to create more running room for RB Drosey Levens against a Lions run defense that has the ability to rotate in seven men along the line. Their best option is running off left tackle, where the Cardinals piled up most of their yards last week.

  • They hit some passes down the middle of the field. Green Bay's receivers have had trouble getting open outside becomes opponents no longer fear getting beat in the middle of the field. The majority of TE Tyrone Davis' routes have come outside the hash marks but he needs to start finding room inside.

    The War Room edge
    The Packers are a team in total disarray at this point in the season. Their inability to run the football has eliminated any sort of play-action threat and teams are simply able to tee off on Favre. The Lions tough run defense got a wake-up call last week in Arizona but don't look for another letdown. It's hard to imagine the Packers losing three straight games in Lambeau Field but that's exactly what is going to happen on Sunday. Detroit coach Bobby Ross can't afford to drop this one after last week's inexcusable loss.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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