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Wednesday, November 17
War Room: Colts at Eagles


Indianapolis offense vs. Philadelphia defense
COLTS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 19
Pass 1
Tot. Yds. 4
Scoring 3
Int's allowed 10
Sacks allowed 7
   
EAGLES DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 26
vs. Pass 18
Total yds. allowed 25
# of Ints. 17
# of Sacks 23
Turnover differential -5
Personnel directors around the league are green with envy -- each week they watch Peyton Manning as he continues to develop into one of the best quarterbacks in football. For a second year QB, Manning shows incredible poise in the pocket. Manning progresses through his reads with an almost computer-like precision and is not afraid to stand in the pocket and absorb punishment to deliver the football. This week against the Eagles, expect Manning to have a big day against a defense that does several things well, but can't seem to put everything together in the same game.

The Colts should be able to run the football with rookie RB Edgerrin James, particularly between the tackles, where Indianapolis should be able to overwhelm an undersized Philadelphia defensive line. LOT Tarik Glenn should have a good day against Philadelphia RDE Mike Mamula. Glenn should dominate Mamula at the point of attack, and has the feet to contain the speed rushing Mamula in passing situations, although Mamula did have a good game against the Redskins last Sunday. Expect the Colts to try and set up the run with the pass, as it will be difficult for Philadelphia to put pressure on Manning without sending the safeties in blitz packages.

The Colts are a team against which the Eagles will have a very difficult time matching up on defense. Indianapolis has speed at the WR position with Marvin Harrison, a solid offensive line, and an effective running game.

The Eagles and defensive coordinator Jim Johnson will have to decide whether to put pressure on Manning or protect against the deep ball to Harrison. Last week, the Redskins' Michael Westbrook repeatedly burned this secondary deep. If the team cannot get pressure on Manning, he will have a big day.

FS Brian Dawkins is emerging as one of the top big-play safeties in football, however, he will be limited in how much blitzing he can do, because SS Tim Hauck has struggled to meet his assignments throughout the season in pass coverage situations. One missed assignment by Hauck, and Harrison will be in the end zone. Harrison has soundly beaten the best cover corners in the NFL week in and week out, so expect Eagles' RDC Troy Vincent to get some help from his safeties. Vincent is having an outstanding season, but has been hampered of late with a bad groin pull, and could struggle against Harrison in single coverage.

The Eagles have to hope that they can get pressure on Manning with the front four and one or two linebackers. Why the Eagles, a team with an overabundance of talented linebackers, have not switched to a 3-4 scheme to put more pressure on opposing QB's is a mystery.

Philadelphia offense vs. Indianapolis defense
EAGLES OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 15
Pass 31
Tot. Yds. 30
Scoring 27
Int's allowed 10
Sacks allowed 36
   
COLTS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 16
vs. Pass 21
Total yds. allowed 21
# of Ints. 6
# of Sacks 24
Turnover differential -11
Rookie QB Donovan McNabb experienced baptism by fire last week against the Redskins, but showed signs that he will be the real deal. The Eagles have to get better at giving McNabb time, particularly in the obvious throwing situations where opposing defenses will send everyone.

LOT Tra Thomas will have his work cut out for him this week against Indianapolis RDE Chad Bratzke. Thomas, a second year player, struggled early in the season, but has shown steady improvement as the season has progressed. He has a tough assignment this week in Bratzke, who has been terrorizing opposing tackles so far this season and is tied for third in the NFL with seven sacks. In passing situations, Thomas will get help, either from a tight end or from FB Kevin Turner. This lessens the amount of weapons from which McNabb has to choose, but it should allow him a little more time to throw the football.

McNabb didn't have great numbers last weekend, but showed poise beyond his years. McNabb scrambled when he had to and didn't make any critical mistakes. The Eagles, if they want to keep this one close, need to establish the run. RB Duce Staley had a big game against the Redskins last week, and needs to continue his great season, both to keep the pressure off McNabb and to keep the Colts offense off the field. McNabb should look for TE Luther Broughton in third down situations, as Broughton has the size and speed to get behind the Colts defense, and Indianapolis LOLB Cornelius Bennett's cover skills are deteriorating.

Luckily for the Colts, the weak part of their defense -- its pass coverage (318 yards per game) -- is going against an offense that averages a mere 127 yards per game through the air. The Colts need to key on Philadelphia RB Staley, as he accounts for over 50% of the Eagles' offense.

Look for the Colts to show McNabb multiple blitz packages, in an attempt to make the rookie force the ball into coverage. McNabb hurt the Redskins with his scrambling ability, so the Colts should assign a spy, most likely MLB Michael Barber, to prevent McNabb from beating them on the ground.

Because the Eagles are a totally inept passing team, the Colts will load-up against RB Staley, play single coverage on the outside, and force McNabb to beat them through the air. Indianapolis' corners, Tyrone Poole and Jeff Burris, are good enough cover guys to neutralize the poor Philadelphia receiving corps, which should free-up defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to take more risks with his safeties and linebackers. Poole and Burris like to gamble, and fortunately for them, the Eagles do not have a receiver on the team that can beat them vertically.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category INDIANAPOLIS PHI
Punt return avg. 12 24
Kickoff return avg. 14 7
Opp. punt return avg. 31 17
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 19 15
Time of possession 17 30
Eagles' KR Allen Rossum finally had the breakout game that so many were expecting him to have. Rossum had 222 yards returning kicks, including an 89 yard return for a touchdown, and an 86 yard return that he took all the way back to the Redskins' 11 yard line. Rossum had been in coach Andy Reid's doghouse for his poor play on punt return units, but his replacement, Charles Johnson, didn't fare much better. Johnson fumbled his only opportunity. The Colts have the worst punt coverage units in the league, so look to see the dangerous Rossum back on punt return duty. Indianapolis has one of the best kickers in the league in Mike Vanderjagt. Vanderjagt is fourth in the league with 80 points. Indianapolis PR Terrence Wilkins showed he is dangerous, with a 39-yard punt return for a touchdown last week against the Giants.

Key matchups
  • Colts RB Edgerrin James vs. Eagle OLBs Thomas and Darling
    James is becoming a bonafide threat as a receiver out of the backfield or as an outside runner, and the Eagle LB's must contain him in the open field. He is impossible to stop in a single matchup, but the Eagles OLB's must follow him back inside and not let him get around the edge.

  • Eagles RB Duce Staley vs. Colts defensive front seven
    Staley is practically the entire Eagles offense and the Colts will stack "eight in the box" to not only stop Staley and the run game, but also force McNabb to throw the football. Containing Staley gives Indy a great chance to control the game.

  • Eagle DCs Bobby Taylor and Troy Vincent vs. Colts WR Marvin Harrison
    Harrison continues to get behind opposing secondaries in almost every game, even though everybody in the stadium knows that he is a huge deep threat. Taylor and Vincent must keep him in front of them and not give up any big plays in the passing game.

    Indianapolis will win if...
  • They can force Philadelphia into a lot of nickel and dime coverages. The Eagle starting corners, Taylor and Vincent, are solid, but when they are stretched to five and six DB's in coverage, the talent level really drops off. Not only are the Colts at a huge advantage in passing matchups, but nickel and dime defenses also soften up the run game for RB Edgerrin James.

  • The Colts' defense can stop Eagle RB Duce Staley. Staley is the key to any success that the Eagles have on offense. He has become their workhorse. Look for the Colts to throw eight in the box and force Eagle QB Donovan McNabb to throw the football.

  • They score early and force the Eagles to play catch-up football. The Eagles' best chance to win is for RB Duce Staley to have a big day and for them to establish ball-control. If Indy scores early, it takes Philadelphia out of their game plan and forces them to throw the football more than they would like. Philadelphia cannot compete in a wide-open offensive game with the Colts.

    Philadelphia will win if...

  • RB Duce Staley has a huge day and gives the Eagles ball-control and time of possession. This is the only chance for the Eagles. They cannot put the ball in Donovan McNabb's hands and expect to win. Obviously, if Staley has a big day, and the Eagles control the clock, it limits the Colts' offensive possessions and scoring opportunities. Much like the Minnesota Vikings of a year ago and the St. Louis Rams of this year, the only way to beat the Colts offense is to make them spectators on the sidelines.

  • They contain RB Edgerrin James and don't let WR Marvin Harrison get deep. This is easier said than done...The Eagles cannot give up big plays to either one of these playmakers. They must play "bend, but don't break" defense and force the Colts into long drives in the hopes that they can create a turnover or capitalize on an Indianapolis offensive mistake.

  • They can put pressure on QB Peyton Manning with their pass rush. Manning can dissect the Eagle secondary if the front-seven doesn't get in his face, but the Eagles may be forced to do it with their front-four, as their OLB's must be aware of Edgerrin James coming out of the backfield. They must be able to beat the Colts' offensive line with only four and five pass rushers, which will be very difficult.

    The War Room edge
    The Colts are no longer the flavor of the week. They are a legitimate playoff contender with tremendous offensive weapons and an improving defense, while Philadelphia is playing with a lot of pride and RB Duce Staley is having a career year. They simply do not have the offensive weapons to compete with the young Colts. The only way that Indy can lose this game is if they have a mental breakdown and come out flat, which is always possible for a young football team, but not likely for these Colts. The dream season continues for Indianapolis.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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