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Wednesday, November 17
War Room: Giants at Redskins


New York offense vs. Washington defense
GIANTS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 23
Pass 14
Tot. Yds. 21
Scoring 19
Int's allowed 9
Sacks allowed 27
   
REDSKINS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 30
vs. Pass 30
Total yds. allowed 31
# of Ints. 14
# of Sacks 20
Turnover differential -3
The numbers say that the Redskins have the second-best offense in the NFL, averaging 388 yards per game. However, the loss of Michael Westbrook to a broken wrist last week in Philadelphia forces a change in game plan this week that will likely cut into Washington's proficiency. An injury with such severe repercussions could not have come at a worse time for the Redskins, as they prepare to host the Giants, who boast the NFL's seventh-best defense.

The Redskins have had success on offense because of their balance, using this year's breakout back Stephen Davis' running prowess to keep their opposition honest. Defenses have been careful blitzing the 'Skins, because of their threatening play-action package, which gives their wide outs a clean release off the line of scrimmage and leaves TE Alexander open in the areas vacated by attacking linebackers.

It is Johnson's ability to see the whole field and check off to second and third receivers that has forced defenses to try and rush his decision making process in the pocket, often times allowing for the Redskins offense to dictate tempo. Westbrook's absence will allow the New York defense to crowd the box, in an effort to limit Davis' opportunities to utilize his great vision running the ball, by cutting off his backside running lanes.

Veteran OLT Andy Heck will have trouble matching up with Michael Strahan, whose explosion off the ball is possibly the best in the League. Strahan's quick get-off up field should force Davis into the traffic created by New York's eight men in the box approach. The Redskins will be inclined to run at Strahan, because of his zealous attitude up the field. In this event, Washington's Rookie ORT Jon Jansen's solid run blocking technique could provide room for Davis to run backside if Jansen can maintain his blocks, something he has struggled with throughout the season.

New York gambles defensively and will throw a varied blitz package at Johnson with Westbrook no longer an option, forcing him to make "hot reads" and get on the same page with a receiving corps that he is now not completely comfortable with.

Giant defensive coordinator, John Fox, has enough confidence in CB's Jason Seahorn and Phillipi Sparks to leave them in single coverage against Albert Connell and Irving Fryar. Connell has flourished opposite of Westbrook this year, but has no NFL experience as a number one receiving option. Fryer is a formidable backup, but no longer possess the ability to stretch the Giant secondary.

Johnson will attempt to spread the ball all over the field to possibly relax the Giant defensive approach. If he is successful doing so without his number one option in the lineup, this could result in more zone coverage from the Giant's secondary and eventually could lead to Johnson working the deep third of the football field, exploiting FS Percy Ellsworth who has just returned to the lineup with a soar foot. Also look for Johnson to pick on SS Sam Garnes, who can be a liability against the pass and struggles locking in on receivers.

Washington offense vs. New York defense
REDSKINS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 9
Pass 5
Tot. Yds. 2
Scoring 2
Int's allowed 6
Sacks allowed 14
   
GIANTS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 5
vs. Pass 12
Total yds. allowed 7
# of Ints. 13
# of Sacks 20
Turnover differential -9
The Giants come into this week with a new offensive philosophy. Jim Fassel plans on spreading the ball around the field to create mismatches and exercise their full potential by getting the ball to their best athletes. New York has struggled in their conventional offense, 12th in the NFL throwing the football and 23rd running it, tallying just 91 yards per game on the ground.

The spread formation the Giants will primarily work from against Washington will feature QB Kent Graham in the Shotgun, with RB Tiki Barber lined up on either side of the quarterback and three receivers wide with TE Pete Mitchell either down or in the slot. They've used the formation from time to time this season, but it was finally effective late last week against the Colts, creating big plays for RB Barber and TE Mitchell.

Washington's defense is among the leagues worst, ranked 29th overall, giving up an average of 396 total yards per game. For both teams, the problems stem from up front. The Giants have just demoted rookie LG Luke Petitgout, in favor of long snapper Jason Whittle and Washington's defensive coordinator Mike Nolan could be fired any day because of his team's poor play against the run.

After the Giants lost RB Gary Brown several weeks ago, their running attack has not been the same. Both LeShon Johnson and Tiki Barber are prototypical third down backs, but neither is fit for the traditional two back offense.

Working from the shotgun, New York will feature Barber, using lateral tosses and draws to get him involved on the ground. The Redskins LB's will be spread all over the field, but the knock on this unit is that they're undersized not slow. If Barber starts to experience success the 'Skins will likely position a linebacker to "spy" on Barber, following him all over the field. Giant's OC Brian Williams has been late recognizing stunts this season. As a result, the Redskin's DT's Dan Wilkenson and Dana Stubblefield plan to confuse him, hoping to reach Graham and disrupt any vertical running plays.

The Redskins zone defense on passing downs has exposed the age of CB Daryl Green, who is more comfortable playing physical, press coverage on the line of scrimmage. With WR's Ike Hilliard, Amani Toomer and Joe Jurevicius spread all over the field, Green will need help. Look for Washington to work out of the nickel frequently against the Giants new scheme to compensate for the extra receiver, possibly giving SS Darryl Pounds added rotation in the secondary.

The Giants are accustomed to sending TE Mitchell down field, attracting attention and forcing the defense to pinch in on him, which should create more man-to-man coverage situations for the wideouts. This will only hurt the Giants against Washington's CB's Champ Bailey and Daryl Green, who are both exceptional when locked on in man-to-man assignments.

Passing from the shotgun will give Graham more options and enable him to make his reads down field. The spread offense will prevent some pressure and will help Graham see the whole field, something he cannot do well out of the pro style offense.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category NYG WAS
Punt return avg. 3 24
Kickoff return avg. 11 28
Opp. punt return avg. 27 23
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 21 24
Time of possession 14 29
Jim Fassel has become so dissatisfied with Cary Blanchard's kickoffs that he invited former Cardinal kicker Joe Nedney in for a workout this week, only to stick with Blanchard, because of his accuracy on FG's. New York punter Brad Maynard's distance is also a concern; he needs to improve on his net average of 35.1. Barber is handling double duty of late; returning kickoffs for an average of 24.1 per try and punts for an impressive 13 yards. Brian Mitchell's punt and kickoff returns are lacking, but he is such a team leader that Turner feels benching him could alter the club's chemistry. Redskin punter Matt Turk has returned from injury, but needs to improve on his 37-yard average. PK Conway has been hitting all FG's within striking distance and averaging 62 yards a kickoff.

Key matchups
  • Giants WRs Toomer and Hilliard vs. Redskins DCs Green and Bailey
    The Giants desperately need big plays in the passing game from their WR's, and as bad as the Redskin defense is playing, Green and Bailey are still two corners who can shut down a passing game. If the Redskins are forced to double-cover any of the wide receivers, it will make the Redskins very vulnerable to the Giants run game. However, it is unlikely that the Giants WR's can stretch the Redskin defense.

  • Redskins WRs Westbrook and Connell vs. Giants DCs Sehorn and Sparks
    The Giants corners gave up several big plays last weekend to Indianapolis, and Connell and Westbrook are every bit as dangerous. Sehorn and Sparks must not bite on play fakes, and they must not let the Redskin WR's get behind them for easy big plays.

  • Redskins DLs Marco Coleman and Dana Stubblefield vs. Giants OLs Roman Oben and Luke Petitgout
    Opposing offenses are picking on the right side of the Redskin defense and running right at Coleman and Stubblefield. Although the Giants do not have a big ball-control back right now, they will likely try to attack the Redskin defense and the run game, and Oben and Petitgout need to have a big day run blocking.

    New York Giants will win if...
  • They can attack the right side of the Redskin defense with their run game. The best way to beat the Redskin defense is run right at them. They are vulnerable up-front and the Giants will try to establish ball-control and time of possession.

  • Their defense doesn't give up early big plays. The Giants are not a team that is very explosive on offense and it is difficult for them to play from behind. They must make this a low-scoring and physical game dominated by defense.

  • They control the clock and dominate in time of possession. Ball-control is critical in this game, as the best way to neutralize the Redskin offense is to keep Brad Johnson & Co. on the sidelines and limit their offensive possessions. There is no way that the Giants can beat Washington in an offensive shoot-out.

    Washington will win if...

  • They score early and force the Giants to get in an offensive shoot-out. This is exactly what the Redskins would like, as the Giants cannot match them at the skill positions and the vertical passing game. Exploiting on offense early will take the Giants out of their gameplan and force them to throw the football, which takes pressure off a very soft Redskin run defense.

  • They can get a decent effort from their underachieving defense. This defense doesn't have to play great each Sunday to win football games. With an explosive offense, if they just play with a bend, but don't break philosophy and can force enough 3-and-outs by the opposing offense, they have a chance to win. They are not getting great production out of their defensive front-seven, which puts additional pressure on the corners.

  • Their OL controls the line of scrimmage, and especially Giants DE Michael Strahan. The Giants have an excellent pass rush and very physical DL, and the Redskins must pass protect and give QB Brad Johnson time to throw. Strahan is a terror and they may have to double-team him, but time in the pocket for Brad Johnson is critical in this game.

    The War Room edge
    Both of these teams are struggling, but for different reasons. The Giants can't move the ball effectively on offense, while the Redskins can't stop anybody on defense. Something has to give in this one, as both of these teams still have playoff aspirations in the mediocre NFC East. Look for Washington to make enough big plays in the passing game to take the Giants out of their gameplan and force them to get into an offensive shoot-out, which they are not capable of pulling off.

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