Ranking recruiting classes is far more difficult to us than ranking individual players, which is difficult enough since we don't believe in doing Top 100 lists that include players of different positions. We only do it because the public likes it. We don't think those lists have much validity or meaning. We think the best way is to rank players by position -- it's not a flawless system, but we believe it is the most meaningful.
We don't have the time (or, the energy; scouting, Christmas coming and all) to go into a thorough explanation of how we do what we do when we rank recruiting classes. We do not employ a number system, giving each recruit a certain number of points to come up with a total for each team's class. We do try to include upside, but that is subjective, depending on what we think of each prospect. Of course, we also try to determine who's better than who right now and figure that in, balancing that against whom may be better in the future.
And in ranking recruiting classes, not individual players, we also try to figure in fit, and impact now vs. impact later vs. probable role. And that is why a team may have a higher ranked player or players in its class than another class, yet rank lower.
If a program needs a lot of good players and brings in four or five good, not great players, they may rank higher than a team that brings in one great player -- unless we think that player can truly impact his program.
Along those lines, we believe that an outstanding point guard is worth far more than a big man in today's college game. That's because no matter what you hear about some 6-foot-10 high school player, the odds say that 99 percent of the time he is not ready to dominate all comers at the high major level, while a point guard usually is much more mature, both physically and skill-wise.
Conversely, the right player can get his team's recruiting class ranked higher than a team that does pull in four good recruits, on occasion.
Confused? It's actually more complex than that. That's why it is not an exact science. And for those of you who like to point out when you feel your team is shortchanged, or that the "other guys" all have your team or player placed higher, we say "bully!"
There should not be much consensus of opinion since everybody weighs the different factors differently. That's why we can proudly say that we reserve the right to change our minds. We already have several times, and even if recruiting were done for the year we would, in all likelihood, not rank these recruiting classes the same way tomorrow. But for now, this is as good as it gets.
And, we promise, not to change our minds until at least Jan. 1.
No. 1 Duke
Sean Dockery, Lee Melchionni, Shavlik Randolph, J.J. Redick, Mike Thompson, Shelden Williams
We do not agree with other experts who say that Duke has a super talented class. What we do feel is that Duke got more good players than anybody else, who for the most part fit with how Duke wants to play and are competitors. This group will have to "blend" more than other Duke squads if they want to achieve the same success since there is no Dawkins, Laettner, Hill, or Williams in this group. Thompson has really come on in the last year and Williams is a very hard worker who looks like he will continue to improve.
No. 2 North Carolina
Raymond Felton, Rashad McCants, Sean May
Matt Doherty knows that to beat Duke you have to have the athletes to compete with them. Without an ACC-caliber point guard, the Tar Heels are going to take their lumps this year, but with Felton, they will be a much more dangerous team the next two years. Felton is the best point/lead guard in the class and is that great impact player we talked about. McCants doesn't have a position, but he is an athlete. Too quick for a lot of small forwards, too strong, tough and vertical for most off guards. Two straight athletic classes for UNC.
No. 3 Villanova
Randy Foye, Jason Fraser, Allan Ray, Curtis Sumpter
Jay Wright's ability to recruit New York is huge and will vault Villanova back up among the nation's elite. There is now great player in this class right now. However, Fraser is a runner/leaper/shot-blocker with nice upside. Foye and Ray can score. Though not a great athlete, Sumpter is a very mature player physically. We like the maturity this group possesses now. The ability of this class to produce big dividends depends on Fraser's development and the next recruiting class. It takes back to back classes to develop quality depth.
No. 4 Michigan State
Maurice Ager, Paul Davis, Rashi Johnson, Delco Rowley, Matt Trannon
Davis is a highly skilled big man who has toughness. Just add calories and stir. Whether you want to call him a 4 (power forward is his future position in the NBA) or a 5 doesn't matter. Call him a player. Ager is a scorer who just needs some polish to be very effective for the Spartans. Rowley is a tough, undersized power player who will help Michigan State remain the bullyboys of the backboards. And, we cheated. Matt Trannon is a football recruit. But he is such a good basketball player that we included him in this class. Johnson is juco transfer insurance in case Marcus Taylor thinks he's ready to come out for the NBA.
No. 5 Syracuse
Carmelo Anthony, Matt Gorman, Gerry McNamara
An impact player puts Syracuse above some other quality classes. We don't know how long they will have Anthony-likely two at the most, but he is a scorer in every sense of the word. Therefore, unless he does it himself, it will be hard for opponents to take him out of the game. McNamara is a sharpshooting point guard.
No. 6 Maryland
Nik Caner-Medley, Travis Garrison, John Gilchrist, Chris McCray
Garrison is a skilled, finesse power player who will provide points and will likely improve as a rebounder over time. Gilchrist is perfect for a Gary Williams team. A very calm, poised point guard. Steady, consistently makes good decisions and looks to pass first. McCray is a better player right now than anybody knows. A good athlete and shooter who can handle enough to take pressure off the point and could play some point as well.
No. 7 Louisville
Louisville/ Kendall Dartez, Taquan Dean, Francisco Garcia
None of the classes ranked above Louisville has a key junior college recruit. It's very risky ranking a class high based on juco transfers since they usually aren't as good as advertised in the first place, and also take a year to adjust to a more structured game. There is no doubt that Dartez is still developing offensively. However, we did see him in high school and he was a springy shot-blocker who boarded well. He will have to step in and perform. Dean is ready to come in and shoot the ball from the off guard spot. He should be a steady contributor. Garcia has a chance to be a big time scorer. Long and lean and lanky. He should get a lot of deflections in their press and can thread to the basket as well as shoot it enough to make people play him. This is a good first class for Pitino's 'Ville.
No. 8 Indiana
Daryl Pegram, Marshall Strickland, Bracey Wright
Strickland doesn't get quite the same hype as Felton, but he is right there at the top of the point guard list and that's what puts Indiana here. He has good size, can shoot, drive and kick, and defends. Wright is more than a shooter, but that's what he does best. This is a starting backcourt that will give the Hoosiers a lot of O, and you can't have too much of that on the perimeter.
No. 9 Memphis
Jeremy Hunt, Amare Stoudamire, Almamy Thiero
OK, OK, so Stoudamire figures to come out for the NBA. We don't know that for sure. Or, let's say that he won't be eligible to play college ball academically. We don't know that for sure. We are ranking the classes on who they got, not who they will have next fall when school starts. Now Stoudamire does need to get layups or dunks to score consistently, but he is a strong big bodied intimidator who can rebound and block shots. Hunt is a very athletic, acrobatic player. Of course, without Stoudamire, Memphis would drop out of these rankings.
No. 10 Michigan
Lester Abram, Amadou Ba, Graham Brown, Daniel Horton, Chris Hunter
Horton is a very talented point guard. Very talented. He will impact immediately for a Michigan team that needs some stars. Abram is a local player who should help at the wing. Hunter is a talented underachiever. Wolverine fans need to give him some time. He has the potential to be an all conference performer.
No. 11 Arizona
Hassan Adams, Chris Rodgers
The guard-friendly Wildcats have become the program for guards. In Adams and Rodgers they get two good-sized scorers. Adams is a great athlete with skill. He can catch a lob, hit a three, penetrate and kick. Rodgers is not as athletic but knows how to play and how to find shots. They can both handle and play either guard position. And they will be tough to match up against. This is why Arizona is always there -- guard power.
No. 12 UCLA
Evan Burns, Michael Fey, Matt McKinney
Burns is one of the five top players in this class. He won't have to carry the team as a freshman, so he may not have super stats in 2002-03, but he will be ready to play. Actually more polished than Carmelo Anthony, but not as aggressive and just needs to work on finishing stronger in traffic. He is the next superstar at UCLA. Fey will give UCLA another big body. McKinney is a big time volleyball player who will give UCLA another leaper on the frontline.
No. 13 Georgia Tech
Chris Bosh, Jarrett Jack, Theodis Tarver
Bosh is a more talented prospect and has more upside than Jason Fraser offensively, but is not as tough or as mature. He will need some time, but could develop into a great go-to guy for Tech. His signing is huge for a program on the rise under Paul Hewitt. Jack is a physical point guard. A strong kid who puts pressure on the opposing team's defense.
No. 14 Florida
Rashid Al-Kaleem, Mario Boggan, Anthony Roberson, Matt Walsh
A lot of question marks in this class. We still like Roberson, but we have dropped him below some other point guards in this class. That's not important, because he will fit in with how Florida plays and that's what counts. Boggan is an enigma. He is a strong banger when he wants to be. Good not great class by Florida standards.
No. 15 Illinois
James Augustine, Dee Brown, Deron Williams, Kyle Wilson
Point guard Brown can really shoot the ball, while Williams has the ability to play either guard position and makes good decisions. Augustine is a developing player who can shoot the ball. Good, not great class since Illini did not get an impact big man.
No. 16 Wake Forest
Chris Ellis, Justin Gray, Richard Joyce, Trent Strickland, Eric Williams
A good grouping of "non-star" players who should turn out to be a tough group to play against because they will be around for four years. Ellis is the son of NBA star Dale Ellis and is a rising senior as a power player. Williams is a big space eater. Gray is a point guard with the ability to compete against the more hyped point guards coming into the college game. Joyce and Strickland are wing players. Another group of "four-year prospects" will give Skip Prosser the foundation he needs to be successful in the ACC and nationally.
No. 17 Purdue
Chris Booker, Melvin Buckley, Matt Keifer, David Teague
Purdue is not a glamour program that attracts "stars." They get hard-working players who are willing to play the way Gene Keady wants them to. They have been very successful over the years and will continue to do so with this group. Booker is a juco rebounder. Buckley is a skilled forward. Keifer is a power forward defensively who can step out and shoot. Teague may be the best all-around player, a wing who is athletic and can score. An example of the sum of the parts scoring higher as a group than they grade out individually.
No. 18 Utah
Richard Chaney, Tim Drisdom, Bryant Markson
Headline, "Majerus Gets Athletes!" Yes, it's true. Chaney and Markson are great athletes with skills. Chaney is a very live-legged shooter. Markson is a very live-legged scorer who is more apt to go to the basket and was highly valued by Arizona. Drisdom is not a great athlete, but is a true point guard and has a great feel for the game along with a great intangible -- tremendous leadership ability. These three will make Utah the Runnin' Utes once again.
No. 19 Vanderbilt
Bryson Krueger, Mario Moore, Ted Skuchas, Julian Terrell
When this class of recruits are sophomores, look for Vanderbilt to be in the upper half of the SEC. Moore is a very underrated point guard. Skuchas is big and strong and mobile around the basket. He won't block a lot of shots, but he will get a lot of rebounds and finish a lot of plays. Good class. We salute the Commodores.
No. 20 Texas
Brad Buckman, Kenton Paulino
Buckman is one tough Texan. He will produce dividends on the glass immediately. Paulino is a combo guard who can score and hit an outside shot, something Texas desperately needs. Is that enough to make the Longhorns No. 20? Only time will tell. Both should be starters sooner than later.
No. 21 Tennessee
Justin Albrecht, Stanley Asumnu, Justin Herndon, C.J. Watson, John Winchester
A case could be made for Tennessee's class being ranked higher on talent alone. But although we have to guess at it, chemistry is also a consideration when bringing in a sizeable class. Can Watson (point guard), Winchester (scorer, gun-ho), and Asumnu (possible swing) all get along and play together in Buzz Peterson's system? Maybe the speculation seems unfair, but the question isn't. Watson is an underrated point guard from Las Vegas. Winchester is a talented but somewhat selfish player. He is a great passer when he is so inclined and could be a star or a bust. Asumnu is an athletic shooter who is not really in Winchester's class and will likely be a role player.
No. 22 Texas A&M
Luis Clemente, Marcus Watkins, Antione Wright
A tall guard, Wright is one of the nation's 10 best, but without a lot of support, may not be able to show it for a while. So, although he will get the opportunity to do so, it may take him a year to really get going, but the talent is there. Watkins (coach's son) is very athletic. Clemente is a frontline sleeper.
No. 23 Iowa State
Chris Alexander, Tim Barnes, Adam Haluska, Jackson Vroman
Two big tunas from the juco ranks and a juco point guard makes this a real "mystery meat" class. Alexander is a true center and is a huge person. Point guard Barnes comes highly touted and needs to be the real deal. Haluska is a highly underrated player, who has a lot of pop in his legs and kills the jumper. On paper, a very good class for Iowa State. Could be better than we have them here, or, could be worse. Hey, we're not Columbo.
No. 24 Iowa
Greg Brunner, Jeff Horner, Josh Rhodes
Nobody thinks Brunner is an elite Big Ten power forward at closer to 6-6 than 6-8. We do, because of an intangible, or, an "X" factor, if you will. No player, no one, played harder or tougher than Brunner did all year and we saw several hundred players. We don't think he will be a star, or, a "stats" player, but he will be a winner. Horner knows how to run a team and brings another intangible to Iowa. He will give Iowa a higher percentage of good offensive possessions. He also has a deep and deadly shot. Underrated individually, he adds a lot to a team.
No. 25a Missouri
Jimmy McKinney, Giedrus Rinkevicius, Kevin Young
Missouri is here on potential, more or less. McKinney is a great athlete. He is also a so-so shooting off guard. Mizzou intends to have him play the point. If he can, that makes him a nice-sized point, who could really defend. Rinkevicius is a tall, thin foreign kid with skills. Young is a big body and a good project.
No. 25b Notre Dame
Ricky Cornett, Torin Francis, Chris Quinn
Yeah, yeah, Francis is ranked in our Top 15, but we have never seen him dominate anybody over close to a dozen evaluations. It's upside. He can shoot, run, block some shots ... but hasn't put it all together yet, and doesn't always seem motivated to put it all out there. We like him or he wouldn't be rated that highly, but we don't think he's really ready to impact as a frosh and that is why he can't lift this class higher than No. 25. Quinn is a smart, skilled point guard.
David Benezra and Mark Mayemura cover the national college basketball recruiting scene at their Recruiting USA (www.recruitingusa.com) website. E-mail at: hoopsusa@mindspring.com or call (818) 783-2244 or (818) 783-2212 for subscription information.