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Wednesday, March 5 Rules changes shake things up By Dan Knutson ESPN.com
The moment when the first driver guns his shrieking V10 out onto the circuit is always special because it marks the true beginning of a new season. I always relish that moment, but this year I am looking forward to the start of the season more than I have in years. The sweeping new rule changes have added a buzz of excitement to this season. There's a feeling of anticipation. There's the thrill of the unpredictability of what's going to happen in single-car, one-shot qualifying and, therefore, in the races themselves. When it is all over eight months and 16 races from now, I predict Michael Schumacher will have won yet another championship. That means he will have a record six crowns, and one more than the legendary Juan Manuel Fangio. When it is all over, I also predict Ferrari will have won its 13 constructors title. That too will be record, putting Ferrari even further ahead of Williams (nine championships) and McLaren (eight). Schumacher and Ferrari are still far too strong a package to lose the championship. They won't have it as easy as last year, but they will still win both titles. This year's Ferrari has been called the best ever by its design crew, and it is a considerable step forward from the dominating car that won 15 of 17 races in 2002. I wish I was wrong and that somebody else would win the crown. I don't have anything against Schumacher. He is one of the best drivers and one of the best athletes ever, and to see him perform his craft brings the same thrill as watching Tiger Woods or Joe Montana or Lance Armstrong or Babe Ruth at their peak. It's just that it would be nice to see somebody else win for a change. But, even though Schumacher will reign supreme, this season won't be stale and predictable -- thanks to the new rules package which adds spice to the show without artificially handicapping a particular driver or team. Last October I wrote a story for RPM.ESPN.com in which I said many people involved in F1 thought that there was nothing wrong with the series. F1, I said, was like the fairy tale about the emperor who wore no clothes but everybody pretended he wore the finest outfit in the world. There were problems in F1, but many just turned a blind eye. But die-hard fans were turning off. The costs were getting ridiculous. The sponsors were backing out. And the races were predictable and lacked excitement -- and overtaking.
FIA president Max Mosley started stirring the pot last October with a few suggestions -- like drivers should have to race for different teams during the season. He wasn't serious but wanted to goad the teams into action. And when they didn't act enough, he created this year's new package. The rule changes have been covered in detail over the past several months. Besides creating a more exciting season, all this outcry over the new rules has kept F1 in the news through the off-season. So what about some of the rest of the drivers and teams? Team orders have been banned this year. I know Rubens Barrichello had to forfeit the Austrian Grand Prix last year on orders from Ferrari, but he also won three more races thanks to Schumacher hanging back. With no team orders, plus stronger opposition from other teams, Barrichello won't be able to win as often this year. Ferrari's technical director Ross Brawn says the team he fears most is McLaren and its brilliant technical director Adrian Newey. McLaren's driver line-up is strong, and the fabulous Kimi Raikkonen's raw speed will push the experienced and still motivated David Coulthard to stay at his peak. In the final days of winter testing, the Williams team expressed concerns about the performance of its new car. But then Ralf Schumacher set a new lap record at Spain's Jerez circuit. The new Williams BMW FW25 is such a different concept to its predecessors that it's going to take the team a few races before it can extract its full potential. After the top three teams comes the intense battle to be "the best of the rest." Renault took fourth last year in the constructors championship. This team has improved considerably in the last couple of seasons, and the latest R23 chassis is said to be a good step forward. But there have been whispers that the wide-angle Renault V10 still doesn't have enough horsepower. Jacques Villeneuve ended winter testing saying he wasn't too sure about the performance of the 2003 Honda V10. It will be a pity if this is true because the BAR 005 is by far the best chassis the team has ever produced. Eddie Irvine, who is not in the series this season and whose colorful quotes will be missed, said last year that he believed the Ford Cosworth V10 in his Jaguar was the third best engine out there after the Ferrari and BMW. He based his theory on the times when he "drag raced" other cars out of a corner. While the engine was excellent, the Jaguar chassis wasn't. In fact, the 2002 Jaguar started the season slower than the 2001 Jaguar. I hope that trend doesn't continue in 2003 for the beleaguered team. Jaguar replaced Irvine and Pedro de la Rosa with Mark Webber and Antonio Pizzonia. Will the new drivers do a better job?
Both Jordan and Minardi will use versions of that Cosworth this season while the Ford-owned Jaguar team gets an all-new Cosworth. As privateers, Jordan and Minardi will benefit from a solid engine package, but the downside is that they have to pay for them. And Minardi was already suffering from sponsorship woes before the season began. And speaking of power, you won't hear any complaints from Sauber's drivers, Nick Heidfeld and Heinz-Harald Frentzen, who get to use the potent 2002 Ferrari this year. As for the new kids on the block, I think Toyota will put in some excellent performances in its second season. Speaking of power balances, one of the fascinating aspects of this season will be watching Villeneuve trying to out-psych and out-drive new teammate Jenson Button. And who will come out on top at Williams between its evenly matched duo of Juan Pablo Montoya and Ralf Schumacher? There are four rookies this year, and all have solid credentials. Cristiano da Matta is going to be under close scrutiny as everybody speculates how the former CART champ will fare in F1 compared to his predecessors. Lots of good things have been said about the other rookies -- Justin Wilson, Ralph Firman and Antonio Pizzonia -- and now they have a chance to make it or break it in the unforgiving world of F1. At the other end of the spectrum is Michael Schumacher, who is about to begin his 12th full season. He and Ferrari will win the title again. But there is going to be plenty of other stuff going on to make this season far from tedious. I started writing this column while I was sitting in the Los Angeles airport. I was dreading the thought of the 14-hour flight to Australia. In all, I spent over 19 hours in the air and countless more in airports to get from the U.S. to Melbourne. But now that I am here, I can't wait to go down to the end of pit lane to watch the first car blast out to start the season. In fact, I will get to do it twice this year because four teams (Jaguar, Renault, Minardi and Jordan) have opted for the new Friday morning testing option. So I can watch those cars and drivers head out, and then come back a couple of hours later to see the full field steam out when official practice begins. It's going to be a fascinating season. Dan Knutson covers Formula One for National Speed Sport News and ESPN.com. |
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