With a tight Winston Cup points battle boiling down to an eight-race shootout to the finish, ESPN.com's RPM crew -- writers Jerry Bonkowski and Rupen Fofaria, and editors Bill Frederickson, Jonathan Baum and Brian Tom -- breaks down who will, who might and who won't walk away with the championship in 2002.

MARK MARTIN

No. 6 Ford Current rank: 1 Best championship finish: 2nd (1990, '94, '98)		2002 STATS: Starts: 28 Wins: 1 Top-5s: 9 Top-10s: 17

Jerry Bonkowski Why he won't win it: The veteran has the tools and the team to win it, but you have to wonder if, at his age, he still has what it takes to hold on and contend with younger drivers. Plus, Martin has a tendency to be conservative, and if there's one thing he can't afford to be at this stage of the season, it's conservative. Outside shot: The one thing Martin has going for him is experience. His gumption and deep thinking could provide the edge he needs to win the title. At this late stage in the game, he's gotten to the dance -- the question is, does he still have enough jump in his step to make it to the final song. Rupen Fofaria Why he won't win it: Although Martin has 17 top-10s this year, he has only one victory. Consistency does win championships, but among consistent contenders the man with the most victories should always win out. Outside shot: After bitterly losing the 1990 championship to the late Dale Earnhardt, Martin was so hurt that this year he won't even talk about the championship publicly. This shows how much he wants it. Average 2001 finish in eight remaining races: 16.25

JIMMIE JOHNSON

No. 48 Chevrolet Current rank: 2 Points behind: 30 Best championship finish: 52nd (2001)		2002 STATS: Starts: 28 Wins: 3 Top-5s: 6 Top-10s: 17

Jerry Bonkowski Why he won't win it: Has done an outstanding job as a rookie, but if it comes down to him and teammate Jeff Gordon at end of season, the rook would likely have to yield to the four-time champ. Outside shot: If he drives all-out in the final races, rather than with the caution demanded of a driver who sits so high in the points, it might take just one mistake to end his hopes. But if he can balance caution and maintain some aggressiveness on the track, he could give Stewart the biggest run for the championship. Rupen Fofaria Why he won't win it: Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus have never been in a tight points race. Heck, they've never been in any kind of Winston Cup points race. With experience on their side, Stewart's crew has the edge. Outside shot: It's hard to count the No. 48 team out of anything. They have not performed like rookies and they've defied all the odds so far. This is just one more opportunity for them to prove the world wrong. Average 2001 finish in eight remaining races: 31 (in three races)

TONY STEWART

No. 20 Pontiac Current rank: 3 Points behind: 74 Best championship finish: 2nd (2001)		2002 STATS: Starts: 28 Wins: 3 Top-5s: 12 Top-10s: 16

Jerry Bonkowski *PICK FOR WINNER* Why he'll win it: Arguably more determined and hungrier than the other drivers. A championship would also erase the stigma of being on suspension and fined big bucks this season for run-ins with the media and other drivers. It also may be the only thing that saves his job for 2003, too. Obstacles that could stand in his way: Jimmie Johnson would appear to be the biggest threat to Stewart's hopes. If Stewart can race him clean the rest of the season and not get intimidated if Johnson is closing fast, he'll be OK. If not, the title will go to the No. 48 car. Rupen Fofaria *PICK FOR WINNER* Why he'll win it: Consistency wins championships, they say, and Stewart has been one of the most consistent drivers this year, ranking second in top-fives, top-10s and wins. The only man close to matching those numbers is Johnson. But when it comes talent and experience, Stewart gets the nod. Obstacles that could stand in his way: Johnson and Stewart's temper. Johnson is no ordinary rookie. He doesn't drive like a rookie and his equipment is not typical first-year stuff. Stewart will need to keep a level head down the stretch if he wants to beat the 26-year-old. But, Stewart is an amazing driver. Some folks in the garage say that, in the same equipment and with the same pit crews, Stewart is better than Gordon. But Stewart's temper affects him on the track. If he can keep his cool and stay focused, he should be fine. He has too much talent not to win a title. This should be his year. Average 2001 finish in eight remaining races: 11.6

STERLING MARLIN

No. 40 Dodge Current rank: 4 Points behind: 81 Best championship finish: 3rd (1995, 2001)		2002 STATS: Starts: 28 Wins: 2 Top-5s: 8 Top-10s: 14

Brian Tom Why he won't win it: After hogging the top spot in the standings for most of the season, too many finishes outside of the top-20 have been costly for Marlin. Now that Stewart has passed Marlin, it will be tough for him to gain any ground, especially with Stewart on a streak of seven straight top-fives. Outside shot: Marlin will have to shake his spell of tough luck and need Stewart to slow down to get some believers back on his bandwagon. But 81-point deficit is not an unattainable lead to overcome and it would be silly to write off Marlin. Rupen Fofaria Why he won't win it: Marlin's team has been in a tailspin the past few weeks. Despite leading the points from the second week of the season through a week ago, Marlin has failed to win since March and has been subject to too much bad luck to bounce back. It would take serious collapses from Stewart, Johnson and Martin to give Marlin a shot. Even then, he's got Gordon breathing down his neck. Outside shot: Marlin did lead the points race longer than anyone else this year. He's got eight top-fives and 14 top-10s, so he has shown consistency. Average 2001 finish in eight remaining races: 10.6

JEFF GORDON

No. 24 Chevrolet Current rank: 5 Points behind: 190 Best championship finish: 1st (1995, '97, '98, 2001)		2002 STATS: Starts: 28 Wins: 2 Top-5s: 8 Top-10s: 14

Jerry Bonkowski Why he won't win it: Despite struggling for wins and the divorce battle in his personal life, Gordon has managed to keep it together. But his 31-race winless drought will come back to haunt him. Still, you can't help but think, if only he had earned two or three more wins this season ... Outside shot: Still has a mathematical chance, but given how short he is on wins, he'd have to go on a nearly unprecedented winning streak and win three or four of the final eight races. Still, if anyone can pull off such a feat, it would be Gordon. Rupen Fofaria Why he won't win it: Gordon's misfortunes at Dover put him at the mercy of others. He really can't win the championship unless the four drivers ahead of him lose it. Although 190 points is not too far to climb in eight races, he would have to be a total of 190 points better than Martin, Johnson, Stewart and Marlin from here until Homestead. That's tough. Outside shot: He's Jeff Gordon. Enough said. The No. 24 team will not give up and that leaves the door open, should the other four contenders self destruct, for the wonder boy. Average 2001 finish in eight remaining races: 12.3

RUSTY WALLACE

No. 2 Ford Current rank: 6 Points behind: 198 Best championship finish: 1st (1989)		2002 STATS: Starts: 28 Wins: 0 Top-5s: 4 Top-10s: 13

Bill Frederickson Why he won't win it: Wallace hasn't put up strong numbers down the stretch, failing to crack the top-10 in the last four races. At best, he'll tread water and finish yet another season in the top-10. At worst, he'll slip a spot or two and miss out on a table at New York. Outside shot: Wallace's shot is more than outside. It's next door. It would take a series of strange accidents -- all taking out the drivers in front of him -- at many of the remaining races for him to think about a title. Heck, he'll have trouble being the top finisher at Penske. Jonathan Baum Why he won't win it: Wallace is the latest example of wins not meaning much in NASCAR, as he's placed himself just outside the top-five without winning a race. But it's a long string of dominating performances he'll need -- something he hasn't seemed capable of the past few races. Outside shot: Wallace does have three runner-up efforts this season, so there is hope that he'll be able to put something together. But not much hope. He's finished outside the top-10 in six of his past seven races. Average 2001 finish in eight remaining races: 13.1

RYAN NEWMAN

No. 12 Ford Current rank: 7 Points behind: 225 Best championship finish: 49th (2001)		2002 STATS: Starts: 28 Wins: 1 Top-5s: 13 Top-10s: 17

Jerry Bonkowski Why he won't win it: Even though he's been the circuit's hottest driver of late, the odds are against Newman maintaining the hot hand for the remaining eight races. All he needs is two or three bad finishes the rest of the way and his fate will be sealed. Outside shot: The only chance Newman has to try and steal the title away from guys like Martin, Johnson and Gordon is to go on a tear of victories. He'd need at least two or three wins in the final eight races to pose any serious threat, and given the series' competitiveness, Newman would have a better chance of finding snow in Miami in July. Bill Frederickson Why he won't win it: He's just too young, right? He'll wilt under the pressure, won't he? OK, he's run surprisingly well and come on strong in the season's second half. The youngster will win a title or two in his career -- but not this year. Outside shot: He's been as hot as anyone in the past couple months, but he'd need to get even warmer if he were to miraculously climb the standings to the top spot. Average 2001 finish in eight remaining races: 20.3 (in three races)

MATT KENSETH

No. 17 Ford Current rank: 8 Points behind: 235 Best championship finish: 13th (2001)		2002 STATS: Starts: 28 Wins: 4 Top-5s: 10 Top-10s: 15

Jonathan Baum Why he won't win it: A string of poor midseason finishes surrounding his win at Michigan dropped him too far back in the standings. Otherwise, it's pretty much been a breakthrough season for Kenseth. Outside shot: He does lead the series in wins this season, so if anyone is capable of putting together two or three more down the stretch, why not Kenseth? At the least, he's got three spots in the standings right in front of him for the taking. Bill Frederickson Why he won't win it: If you've got more than two or three competitors to pass in the points, you're chances are slim. Kenseth has seven drivers ahead of him. He has four wins and 10 top-fives, but he posted too many poor finishes. Outside shot: Kenseth would need to mount a serious charge. He'd need wins -- and plenty of bad luck from the drivers above him in the standings. Average 2001 finish in eight remaining races: 17.8

BILL ELLIOTT

No. 9 Dodge Current rank: 9 Points behind: 257 Best championship finish: 1st (1988)		2002 STATS: Starts: 28 Wins: 2 Top-5s: 5 Top-10s: 11

Bill Frederickson Why he won't win it: Elliott has visited Victory Lane a couple times this year, and he's qualified extremely well, but he hasn't posted the consistent finishes necessary to hoist the champion's trophy. Outside shot: Elliott witnessed first-hand how Alan Kulwicki overcame a big deficit to win the 1992 title. That won't be happening this year. Elliott's career has rebounded with Ray Evernham's team, for sure, but he's not close to seriously contending for a title. Brian Tom Why he won't win it: Elliott needs to make up too many points and unfortunately has struggled in recent races. In the last seven races, Elliott has finished higher than 16th just once, which is not a conducive formula for making up ground. Elliott's back-to-back wins at Pocono and Indy brought him up to sixth in the standings, but he's steadily dropped since. Outside shot: In the unlikely chance that all eight drivers ahead of Elliott in the standings experience catastrophic luck, the veteran still has a chance. He'll have to revert back to the midseason form that saw him win back-to-back races and hope he's within reach of the lead going into the season finale at Homestead, Fla., a track where he is the defending winner. Average 2001 finish in eight remaining races: 24.9

RICKY RUDD

No. 28 Ford Current rank: 10 Points behind: 281 Best championship finish: 2nd (1991)		2002 STATS: Starts: 28 Wins: 1 Top-5s: 6 Top-10s: 10

Bill Frederickson Why he won't win it: Rudd's title hopes were shattered the moment he announced he was not returning to Robert Yates Racing for next season. A short-timer just isn't going to be able to build the chemistry and consistency needed for a championship run. Outside shot: Rudd would need an amazing string of successes to be a factor this year. And, judging by his recent performances, that just isn't likely. And, since he's moving to the Wood Brothers -- who haven't fielded a contender in years -- this may prove to be Rudd's last hurrah. Jonathan Baum Why he won't win it: Aside from the tremendous amount of ground to make up, the inconsistencies of this team during and after the Rudd-Yates battle over the future have made it unlikely that the No. 28 can suddenly go on an amazing run -- especially if Rudd moves to the No. 21 before the end of the season. Outside shot: Last year with Yates in the No. 28 -- what better way to end it than by winning a title due to a spectacular late-season comeback? That's pretty good motivation. Average 2001 finish in eight remaining races: 19.5

FINAL TOP-10 PREDICTIONS
Rank	Bonkowski	Fofaria	Tom	Frederickson	Baum
1	Stewart	Stewart	Stewart	Stewart	Johnson
2	Johnson	Johnson	Martin	Martin	Stewart
3	Martin	Martin	Johnson	Johnson	Gordon
4	Newman	Marlin	Gordon	Gordon	Martin
5	Gordon	Gordon	Marlin	Marlin	Marlin
6	Wallace	Newman	Newman	Newman	Kenseth
7	Marlin	Wallace	Kenseth	Wallace	Newman
8	Elliott	Kenseth	Wallace	Kenseth	Wallace
9	Kenseth	Elliott	Jarrett	Elliott	Jarrett
10	Jarrett	Jarrett	Busch	Jarrett	Elliott