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Tuesday, November 12 The real fight is for third By Jerry Bonkowski ESPN.com HOMESTEAD, Fla. -- In the horse race that is the Winston Cup championship, only Tony Stewart and Mark Martin are left running for the lead entering Sunday's season-ending Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. But, while Stewart and Martin battle for the title -- with Stewart owning an 89-point edge -- perhaps the most exciting race within a race Sunday will be for third place. Six drivers are mathematically eligible to finish the season third, with nine points separating the first five, and the sixth just 72 points behind. So, let's handicap who's who and what's what:
The skinny: In just his second full season, Kurt Busch currently holds the No. 3 spot. But that doesn't mean the Las Vegas native has it locked up. On the contrary, Busch (4,461 points) holds only a meager eight-point lead over his next closest challengers, Jimmie Johnson and Rusty Wallace, who are tied for fourth with 4,453 points. Busch, who has climbed from 12th to third in the last seven races, has claimed three wins this season. He enters the finale on a hot streak: In his last six starts, Busch has four top-fives. Quotable: "It's almost scary (he's now in third-place) because we're only nine (points) out of sixth, so we're going to keep running like we have. It's on to Homestead and it's going to be a doozy down there. I'm real excited about it and, hopefully, we can run strong and get that third in points." Last year at Homestead: Busch started 32nd and finished 23rd.
The skinny: He may still be second in the Rookie of the Year rankings (20 points behind Ryan Newman), but Johnson (4,453) leads Newman (4,438) in the overall standings. However, Johnson has hit a horrible skid in the last three weeks, with finishes of 22nd, 37th and 15th. He couldn't have picked a worse time to go into the tank -- but it is the first time this season that he has struggled for any extended period of time. Johnson's three wins this season have been on the two-mile oval at Fontana, Calif., as well as triumphs in both races at the one-mile oval at Dover, Del. It's on the 1½-mile ovals like Homestead that Johnson has shined, with two top-fives and five other top-10s in eight starts. With that kind of resume, it would appear Johnson can put an end to his recent run of bad luck. Quotable: "I'm just disappointed to have that (his recent run of bad luck) happen. In the last three weeks some crazy stuff has been going on and it's really, really hurt us. I just hope that we can get things rallied back, come back to Homestead and be back on our game and get max points." Last year at Homestead: Johnson started 30th (one of three Cup starts he made last season) and finished 25th.
The skinny: Tied with Johnson for fourth, Wallace has an added -- and perhaps more pressing -- incentive in Sunday's race: It's his last chance for a victory this season, which would extend his streak of at least one win in each of the last 16 seasons. While he'd like to finish third, Wallace will likely enter Sunday's race aiming only for the win. He even went so far as to boldly predict after Sunday's race at Phoenix that he was going to win at Homestead. Wallace's runner-up finish at Phoenix, the fourth time he's been a bridesmaid this season, helped snap a two-race slump that saw him finish 17th at Atlanta and 27th at Rockingham, N.C. The key for a veteran like Wallace on a flat track like Homestead is to qualify strong and pull out all the stops to get and stay out front early. Quotable: "It's amazing how close the points are. You race all year long and the points end up that close. There's no doubt there's a lot on the plate. It's going to be high intensity. I'm going to go down to Homestead on Wednesday and relax and get ready for the big race and work real hard on the chassis setup and try to get a good qualifying run there. I just hope to God we get to Homestead and nothing goes wrong and we have a good, strong run there. I've got my best bullet going to Homestead this weekend, and let's hope it'll work down there." Last year at Homestead: Wallace started sixth, finished 12th.
The skinny: The defending champion, Jeff Gordon has battled adversity all season, both on and off the track. To see him still with a chance at finishing in third is a testament to Gordon's grit and determination. Even if he can't finish first or second, you had better believe he's going to race Sunday as if he's going for the title. Gordon enters Homestead in sixth (4,452 points), just one point behind Johnson and Wallace and only nine points behind Busch. With three wins this season, Gordon will likely have a similar approach as Wallace: do as best as he can and the points will take care of themselves. Quotable: "(Finishing third) is what we want to do. We want to wind the season down by having great strong runs and going places that we haven't been real strong at or haven't had a chance to win at and be a threat. We're going to take this car (he drove Sunday at Phoenix) to Homestead and hopefully have some great things there, too, and maybe get up to third (in the final standings)." Last year at Homestead: Gordon started 11th, but finished a disappointing 28th, forcing him to put off clinching the title until the following week at Atlanta.
The skinny: The leader in the Rookie of the Year standings, Newman has had a rough go of it in the last four races. He sat on the pole last Sunday at Phoenix, but wound up 18th. Newman comes into Homestead in seventh with 4,438 points, 23 points behind Busch. After being one of the hottest and most consistent drivers in the second half of the season (including four top-fives and three top-10s in the seven-race stretch from Darlington, S.C., to Charlotte), Newman has struggled in the last four starts. Ironically, he's sat on the pole for three of those last four races, yet has been unable to capitalize on his front-running status. Newman has had a mixed bag of performances on 1½-mile tracks, with top-fives at Kansas City, Las Vegas and Chicago, as well as top-10s at Charlotte and Atlanta, but also poor showings at Texas and Charlotte. Given his recent string of great starts and poor finishes, perhaps he will focus more on doing the exact opposite -- starting further back and getting stronger on race day. Quotable: "We've qualified good but just haven't been able to finish things off the way we started in the last several races. We just go out there and do it the best we can and as hard as we can, and where we end up on Sunday is where we end up and those are the points that we get." Last year at Homestead: Newman did not race.
The skinny: With 4,389 points, Matt Kenseth sits eighth heading into Homestead, 72 points behind Busch. Admittedly, he's a longshot, but with 185 points available in Sunday's race, Kenseth could get a break if the other contenders falter. Last Sunday's win at Phoenix was Kenseth's fifth of the season, a mark no other driver will be able to equal. Kenseth enters Sunday's race with three straight top-10s, making him a strong contender not only to steal third, but win another race. Quotable: "I'm still surprised with all the wins this year, still surprised that we've won them. I'm real grateful for the wins, I'm real surprised and when I show up at the racetrack, I don't think, 'Man, we can win this weekend.' I think about trying to qualify in the top 25 and I think about trying to run with the leaders and put ourselves in a position to win. I don't have that comfort level where I think I'm going to go to Homestead and qualify in the top 15 and be one of the leaders and have a shot at the win. I don't have that comfort yet. It's just so competitive over here in Winston Cup." Last year at Homestead: Kenseth started 21st and finished 27th. Jerry Bonkowski covers NASCAR for ESPN.com. |
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