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Winston Cup Series




Tuesday, October 28

Kenseth has it all but wrapped up
By Rupen Fofaria
Special to ESPN.com

Rupen Fofaria Dale Earnhardt Jr. has stopped looking at when and how much he gains on points leader Matt Kenseth. The Chevy driver is concentrating on closing out the season with a second-place finish

Jimmie Johnson, one of two drivers battling Junior for that tightly contested second-place finish, is proud of how long he's stayed among the top 10, a streak dating back to his rookie season last year, and hopes that his consistency will help him compete for the title next year. But he has no delusions about this year.

And then there's Kevin Harvick, the other guy competing with Junior for second; a guy who just a few weeks ago used a hot streak to breath a little bit of life into the points race that Kenseth had dominated all season. Harvick finished 20th last weekend at Atlanta Motor Speedway and had only one thing to say: "It's over," he said, convinced that Kenseth had locked up this year's trophy.

Even Kenseth himself is feeling pretty confident. In sports, and racing especially, competitors are normally reluctant to say something's over before it's actually over. But with a 258-point lead and three races to go, even he is starting to sound like the Winston Cup championship is already his.

"That's quite a few points, but anything can happen," he said, getting the obligatory It-Ain't-Over-Till-It's-Over qualifier out of the way before proceeding. "But there is only three races to go, and we've been real strong at Phoenix in the past and at Rockingham, so I look forward to that."

Certainly, Kenseth's obligatory "anything can happen" comment is accurate. There is still a chance that he could go on a cold streak -- a freezing streak, really -- and lose the championship. But it ain't likely. Especially with Harvick's momentum interrupted.

Harvick completed an 11th-to-second comeback after Dover six weeks ago and put a bit of pressure on Kenseth, who has owned the points lead since the fourth week of the year. Going into Atlanta last weekend, a high finish and a Kenseth hiccup would have made for an exciting finish to the season.

Kenseth said he was battling an ill-handling car all day and, after teammate Mark Martin's engine blew up, was scared that his motor might be ready to give out, too. He somehow negotiated an 11th-place finish, though, and even with Junior finishing second Kenseth managed a little breathing room because Harvick finished worse.

Matt Kenseth
Steady Matt Kenseth sits atop the Winston Cup standings.

"It ended up being a good day in the points, I guess, a little breathing room on second place, at least," Kenseth said. "So, it ended up being a good day. But we ran real bad. We just had some problems. We had something break and that hurt our performance a lot. And we just struggled with it all day. The big picture looks good, but I wish we could've run better."

Kenseth said he was upset with his performance in the race, but this late in the year he would take three more of them if it meant the championship was clinched. With three to go, the title isn't technically sealed. A driver can gain, at most, 151 points in a race. Thus, Kenseth will need a 303-point lead after next weekend's race at Phoenix to clinch.

His competitors are hoping he'll take a nosedive and finish last while they finish up top. But this isn't going to be likely, not with Kenseth's proficiency at maneuvering around that race track, where he collected his season-high fifth checkered flag last year.

"It's good that we gained some points on them guys because we only got three races to go," Kenseth said. "We're going to some good tracks for us, so I feel good about that. We certainly didn't run very good today, but overall, looking at the points thing, everything was a great day for that. We've got three races to go and we're going to some real good race tracks."

Jeff Gordon has won four of these titles, more than any other active racer. The way he remembers it, the last few races before a driver clinches the championship are some of the most stressful. The myriad of problems that can plague your team and cost you the title roll through your head, Gordon recalls.

But that doesn't seem to be Kenseth's deal. And though Kenseth is a bit of a cooler customer than most, it's not just a personality thing. It has something to do with the fact that his team hasn't finished outside the top 20 in consecutive races all year long. And to lose this title, he'd have to do far worse than that. He'd have to finish below the top 30 in three straight races; or top 40 twice.

"Really, anything's possible," Kenseth's team owner Jack Roush said. "But certainly we're aware of how this team has performed all year long and that offers a little bit of comfort."

Rupen Fofaria is a freelance writer living in Chicago and a regular contributor to ESPN.com. He can be reached at rfofaria@espnspecial.com.

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