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Winston Cup Series




Sunday, November 9
Updated: November 10, 9:45 PM ET
Kenseth was good -- and lucky
By Rupen Fofaria
Special to ESPN.com

Rupen Fofaria When Mark Martin's engine blew, it was maybe the last possible moment for Matt Kenseth to change his mind and get off the path to pit road. Had Martin's engine blown just a little later, Kenseth would have been trapped going down pit road and he would have fallen a lap down to the rest of the field. By diving back on track from the pit road entrance, he fell only to 13th after NASCAR penalized him for getting off pit road after passing the "commitment line."

That's how the 17 crew dodged yet another bullet this season, finished fourth in the Pop Secret Microwave Popcorn 400 at North Carolina Speedway and, oh yeah, won the Winston Cup title.

Ryan Newman, meanwhile, had a fast car that started on the pole and might have been able to finish first, too, but his and Jeff Gordon's car made contact early in the race, and then contact with Jeremy Mayfield's car late in the race, dropped Newman in the field both times. Sure, he finished fifth -- not bad by any means -- but it was the perfect illustration of the difference between these two drivers' seasons.

Kenseth caught several breaks this year. When luck rode shotgun with Newman, the driver of the 12 car won -- eight times -- and when it bailed on him, he finished outside the top 30 -- six times. That's why this year's winningest driver didn't win the title. And that's also how the guy who did win the title was able to do so despite winning only one race all year.

"We definitely had everything go our way when we needed it," Kenseth said. "There were definitely times when I thought we were going to run into some trouble and, next thing you know, we come home with another top five."

To be sure, winning a Winston Cup title demands a skilled and focused team that comes through when it counts -- whether it be fabricators or engineers putting a winning car together, a pit crew coming through with a fast stop or a driver doing his thing on the track. But the teams in NASCAR's elite division are much closer to one another in this regard than ever before, so the variable factor often is luck.

Matt Kenseth had a lot of it this season. His closest pursuers didn't have enough.

" We definitely had everything go our way when we needed it. There were definitely times when I thought we were going to run into some trouble and, next thing you know, we come home with another top five. "
— Matt Kenseth

Newman isn't a believer in touting luck as the deciding factor in crowning a champion. But even he admits that the absence of luck was a devastating factor in the seasons of every driver that didn't win.

"We definitely didn't have luck on our side a lot," Newman said. "Nobody does. It hits you one week and it hits somebody else another. You can't control it. But it did hurt us this year."

From 1972 to 2000, there were never more than 14 race winners in any given year. And there were only three seasons when there were 14 race winners. Since then, however, there have been 19 and 18 race winners. This year? 16 race winners.

All of this is only meant to suggest that the middle of the pack has caught up to the front of the pack. There are only a handful of cars in the back. This puts most teams in one big lump of competitiveness where any car can win on any weekend. With the victories spread, it comes down to consistency. That's how a guy like Kenseth wins one race and the title.

"I definitely think we had a strategy, but luck did play into it somewhat," Kenseth said. "You can't do it without being lucky sometimes."

Take Newman, for example. Not only were his eight victories a series-high, his 17 top fives also topped the charts. And yet there he is in fourth in the points standings, behind guys who've won three, two and one races, apiece.

A blown tire, broken axles and engine problems relegated him to finishes in the 40s. Brake troubles and wrecks took care of the rest. Newman lost a ton of points on the leaders with each of his six finishes outside the top 30. If only three of them were avoided, who knows what might have happened.

"I really don't like to pin things on luck," he said. "I'm not saying we didn't have our share of bad luck, and I'm not saying Matt hasn't had more than his share of good luck, but you just work on the things you can control and hope the luck is there when you need it. There's nothing more you can do."

Luck has always been a big part of Winston Cup racing. But over the past couple of years, according to many drivers, it's become a much more important part.

"The way the points system is set up," Jeff Gordon said, "it rewards consistency. Well, now almost everybody is capable of finishing in the top five, top 10. Not everybody is capable of doing it 15, 20 times a season, but a lot of people are. And a lot of times, whether those teams do or not depends on luck."

Rupen Fofaria is a freelance writer living in Chicago and a regular contributor to ESPN.com. He can be reached at rfofaria@espnspecial.com.

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