2023 NBA playoffs: Odds, picks, betting tips for Monday's Game 4s

ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN's proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for Monday are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.

What you need to know for Monday

The New York Knicks and Golden State Warriors seek to even their respective series against their lower-seeded foes on Monday night. The Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers, meanwhile, seek commanding series leads, as history tells us teams positioned 3-1 go on to win that series 95% of the time. If you have a feel for the favorites tonight, adding in some series plays could also make sense.

With superstars such as Jimmy Butler, Stephen Curry, and LeBron James all active, it will help to identify some bankable values. Diving into this two-game slate, Andrew Wiggins' work on the boards stands out, making him a viable target for DFS lineups and prop plays. With his rebounding prop at 5.5 for tonight, it's notable that via tracking data Wiggins has been second on the Warriors in the postseason with 12.2 potential rebounds per game and has tallied at least six pulls in six of the past eight games.

Sticking with cleaning the glass, Julius Randle and Josh Hart have rebounding props of 8.5 for tonight's pivotal matchup in Miami. Hart has exceeded this threshold in three of the past four and is second on New York with 15.5 potential rebounds per game in the playoffs. Randle has averaged 13.1 opportunities per game but also has a low contested rebound rate, suggesting he's likely to convert at a high rate. Double-double props for both are also intriguing.

-- Jim McCormick

Breaking down Monday's slate

New York Knicks at Miami Heat
Game 4: 7:30 p.m. ET, Heat lead series 2-1

Records (Against the Spread)
Knicks: 47-35 (45-35-2)
Heat: 44-38 (30-49-3)

Line: Heat (-4.5) Total: 207.5
BPI Projection: Knicks by 3.9
Money Line: Knicks (+158), Heat (-190)

Injury Report:
Knicks: Immanuel Quickley, (GTD - Ankle); Jericho Sims, (OUT - Shoulder)
Heat: Caleb Martin, (GTD - Back); Haywood Highsmith, (GTD - Knee); Jimmy Butler, (GTD - Ankle); Udonis Haslem, (GTD - Illness); Tyler Herro, (OUT - Hand); Victor Oladipo, (OUT - Knee)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Best bet: Kyle Lowry over 10.5 points. Lowry is still one of the best options on the Heat, even at age 37, he just wasn't getting starter minutes in the series against the Bucks. But, with Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo out for the Heat, plus Jimmy Butler battling injury, Lowry has been getting more time and touches. He has averaged 12.7 PPG in 28.7 MPG through the first three games of the series, with at least 14 points in two of three outings thus far. -- Andre Snellings

Best bet: Jalen Brunson over 5.5 assists. Brunson has had difficulty getting his customary shots this series when Jimmy Butler has defended him. Butler has the size, strength and quickness to keep Brunson from utilizing the angles he normally likes to use to get his shot off. Consequently, in the games Butler has played, Brunson has done more passing which has led to more assists. He has 13 assists in the two games Butler has played vs only two assists (but 30 points) in the game Butler sat. Brunson also has six or more assists in five of his past seven playoff games. -- Andre Snellings

Best bet: Gabe Vincent over 16.5 points + assists. Although Vincent's performance in Game 3 was underwhelming, with just five points and four assists, I'm optimistic he'll bounce back in Game 4 against the Knicks. In fact, Vincent's averaged an impressive 17.0 points and five assists over the past four games. -- Eric Moody

Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers
Game 4: 10 p.m. ET, Lakers lead series 2-1

Records (Against the Spread)
Warriors: 44-38 (39-42-1)
Lakers: 43-39 (39-41-2)

Line: Lakers (-3) Total: 227.5
BPI Projection: Lakers by 4.7
Money Line: Warriors (+122), Lakers (-145)

Injury Report:
Warriors: Patrick Baldwin Jr., (OUT - Toe); Andre Iguodala, (OUT - Wrist); Ryan Rollins, (OUT - Foot)
Lakers: Anthony Davis, (GTD - Foot); LeBron James, (GTD - Foot); Mo Bamba, (GTD - Ankle)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Best bet: Anthony Davis under 25.5 points. I personally think that at some point Davis will break the odd/even games curse. For those that somehow haven't heard, Davis' PER in odd games of the playoffs is up over 30 (which would be one of the best marks in NBA history) but in even games his PER is under 14 (which is considered a below average NBA contributor). The PER stat is heavily influenced by scoring volume and efficiency, and this is an even game, so the pattern suggests Davis should have an off game on Monday. The key to me is that the Lakers don't necessarily need Davis to dominate offensively to win, particularly at home where the secondary scorers/role players can provide more scoring; the Lakers need Davis to dominate on defense and apply pressure/make open looks on offense. So, I'm not necessarily saying Davis has a bad game on Monday... but history and circumstance both argue that he's unlikely to score in the upper 20s. -- Snellings

Best bet: Stephen Curry over 30.5 points. It's time for a Steph Curry breakout game in this series. Through the first three games, Curry is averaging 23.3 PPG while never going over 27 points, and the Warriors are down two games to one. Curry averaged 30.0 PPG in two regular season matchups against the Lakers and averaged 33.7 PPG in the first round against the Kings, never scoring under 27 points in any of those nine games. The Lakers have done a great job against him defensively, but at some point Steph is gonna Steph. With the Warriors' season on the line, I expect tonight will be the night we see Curry pop for a big scoring effort. -- Snellings

Best bet: Warriors +3.0. The Warriors are in a must-win situation and need to bounce back. Fortunately, they've been impressive in their last few games after a non-cover, going 4-0 against the spread. Additionally, they've won 6 of their last 7 games following a straight-up loss. With Steph Curry leading the charge, I'm expecting an epic performance similar to his Game 7 heroics against the Kings. Golden State's core group of players has a history of stepping up in big games, and I'm confident they'll shine once again, as long as they minimize their turnovers. -- Moody