Falcons-Jaguars, NFL betting odds, picks, tips

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The Atlanta Falcons and Jacksonville Jaguars travel to London this week for this season's first game of the NFL international series. The Jaguars enter the Week 4 matchup struggling more than expected this season. They suffered a surprising 37-17 loss to the Houston Texans and rookie C.J. Stroud largely outplayed Trevor Lawrence. Meanwhile, the Falcons also struggled against the Detroit Lions in Week 3 and were limited to only 44 total rushing yards after dominating on the ground in the previous two weeks. Both teams will look to get back on track when Week 4 kicks off at 9:30 a.m. ET on ESPN+. The Jaguars are a three-point favorite over the Falcons with the total set at 43.5.

Our betting analysts Tyler Fulghum, Seth Walder, Eric Moody and Anita Marks answer some of the most pressing questions around the game and offer their best bets.

All odds and lines are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

The Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, 43.5) are favorites over the Atlanta Falcons heading into Sunday's game from Wembley Stadium in London. What are your thoughts on the total and spread and who are you taking in this matchup?

Seth Walder: I'll go Jaguars -3. These are two teams I've been pretty skeptical of, but Atlanta's flaw -- a very lackluster passing attack -- is harder to ignore. The Falcons need exceptional performances on the ground and while that is possible given the players they have, the Jaguars' run defense is pretty strong, ranking third in EPA allowed per designed run this year.

Tyler Fulghum: This is a tough handicap for me. The Falcons have a much-improved defense, and despite their limitations at QB, can run the ball effectively to keep it away from Trevor Lawrence. I don't know what it is about the Jaguars, but they seem to let us down just when we think they've earned our trust (last week at home vs. Houston coming off a home loss to the Chiefs). I'll be staying away from betting the side or total in this one, but I did pick Jacksonville in Pigskin Pick 'Em this week.

Anita Marks: Jaguars -2.5. London is like a home game for the Jaguars, who have won their past three at Wembley Stadium. The Jags have been one of the unluckiest teams -- nine drops by receivers -- and two potential TDs to Calvin Ridley. The Falcons' defense has allowed over 300 yards of offense per game, while the Jags' defense has allowed only 84 rushing yards per game. Atlanta is one dimensional, it likes to run the football, and that plays right into what the Jacksonville does so well.

Calvin Ridley faces his former team for the first time since being suspended over a year ago. Ridley's receiving-yard prop is at 64.5. Do you see him having a big game or will the Falcons' secondary keep him contained?

Eric Moody: I'm buying into the Ridley revenge game narrative. He has 173 receiving yards on 13 receptions (26 targets). It is worth noting, however, that he had 101 receiving yards in the season opener. Ridley knows how the Falcons' defense works and their tendencies and Lawrence should target him early and often.

Anita Marks: Calvin Ridley over 64.5 rec yards. Ridley dropped two passes last week and one of them was a potential touchdown. Lawrence still believes in Ridley though as he still saw seven targets in the game. Atlanta plays zone coverage over 65% of the time and Ridley's target share is almost 25% against zone.

Tyler Fulghum: The Falcons' pass defense is much improved this season and I think it is for real. They are fourth in the league in pass yards allowed per game. Now, some of that is because they haven't played the best QBs in the NFL yet, plus their ability to play keep away from opposing offenses with their dominant run game. However, I like this spot for Ridley to bounce back with a big game. I'd play the over on his receiving prop total. After an awesome Week 1 performance against the Colts, Ridley has put up a couple of duds. He's due for a bounce-back and of course he'll be motivated to perform at the highest level against his former team.

What is your favorite prop bet for Falcons-Jaguars?

Eric Moody: Desmond Ridder over 190.5 passing yards. The Jaguars' defense has allowed 269.3 passing yards per game through three weeks this season. Although the Falcons rely heavily on the running game, Desmond Ridder has surpassed 190.5 yards in each of the past two contests. If Atlanta's offensive line provides adequate pass protection, that streak is likely to continue against the Jaguars.

Seth Walder: Desmond Ridder over 0.5 interceptions (+143). Like I mentioned in the first section, the Jaguars have been strong on run defense. That should force the Falcons to throw more, and that increases the chance Ridder throws a pick. My model gives him a 47% chance to throw a pick, which makes him a value at this line.

What is your best bet for Falcons-Jaguars?

Eric Moody: Evan Engram over 46.5 receiving yards. Engram is someone I project to be actively involved against Atlanta. He ranks first among tight ends in yards after catch, second in receptions, and third in receiving yards. The Falcons' defense has allowed a number of tight ends to perform beyond expectation. Including a big day from Sam LaPorta (11-84-1) last week.

Seth Walder: Bud Dupree over 0.25 sacks (+240 at DraftKings). Dupree has no sacks this season, but he plays a lot -- 69% of defensive snaps. He is facing Jaguars left tackle Walker Little, who ranks 54th out of 66 qualifiers in pass block win rate among tackles. I make the fair price +167.