| | It's time to go back to work. So why do I have that "ugh" feeling heading to the West Coast?
I don't know to be honest, but I had the same feeling in fifth grade heading back
to school after summer vacation. Maybe I enjoyed the weekend off too much. They are, after all, about as common as repeat winners in Winston Cup.
Then again, I do have a reason to be enthusiastic about going to California. No, not so much the 500 miles of racing at California Speedway this Sunday, that comes with the job each week. Rather, Jimmy Buffett will be in town and both myself and Bill Weber have our parrot head outfits packed for the Buffett concert in L.A.
But enough about Buffett and back to the race at hand -- the NAPA Auto Parts 500. After 10 weeks of racing, nine races and nine different winners, not even my trusty stat book can answer the question on everyone's mind:
Who will win the 2000 Winston Cup championship?
Since we're in "Tinsletown," home to the Oscars and other award shows full of stars and glitter, lets breakdown the early favorites for NASCAR's ultimate prize. The top top nominees, if you base it on improvement over 1999, are currently in the top five in points. In fact, the first four in the standings have improved their totals to date by nearly 100 points over last year.
Still, it appears ready to step forward and made the statement as the guy to beat. Nobody has the bull's eye painted on their rear bumper. Aside from nine different winners in nine races, there have also been nine different guys who have led the most laps.
And you thought this year's choice for "Best Picture" was a tough call.
Who will play the staring role in NASCAR 2000 is still to be determined. We will have to wait for the final scene to find the missing clues, but we already have an idea who the players are for 2000. Or do we?
My nominees for 2000 Winston Cup champion are:
Mark Martin
| |  | | | Martin |
Martin rides west with the points lead. But he qualifies as NASCAR's version of Susan Lucci. But remember what happened to Susan? After about 80 or 90 daytime Emmy nominations, she FINALLY won the gold statue a few years back. Could it be a Lucci year for Mark Martin? He has finished the past 11 seasons in the top 10 and Martin is already on a roll similar to Dale Jarrett's in 1999. His 6.9 average is on pace to match DJ's 6.8 from last season. One bad piece of history not on Martin's side? In the past eight years, only once did the driver leading the
points after race nine races win the title ...
Bobby Labonte
| |  | | | Labonte |
... And that's what Labonte and a couple other drivers are hoping for -- Martin's momentum to go south. When you compare 1999 to 2000, B-Lab continues to improve his results and his chances for a title. Even though he has the same number of top-10s (6) and one less top-five (4) than '99, the 18 team has avoided misfortune and frustrating results that usually follow 'em. He did finish 21st last time out at Talladega (through no fault of his own). That's one strike. Labonte had three finished of 21st or worse in 1999. Still, he's improved his average finish through the first quarter of the season from 12.6 a year ago to 7.7 this year. He's also just 24 points behind Martin, compared to being in fourth place and 149 back at this point last season.
Ward Burton
| |  | | | Burton |
Go ahead, say it: Waaaaaaaard Buuuurrrrrrrrton. But no matter how you say his name, Burton is the most improved driver of 1999. His ninth-place finish in points a season ago was a career best. And he continues to improve in
2000. He already has half as many top-five finishes (3) as he posted in all of '99. And he is better in every performance area after nine races -- especially the win column.
Dale Earnhardt
| |  | | | Earnhardt |
Can you say eight-time Winston Cup champion? You bet. The Big E is 97 points off Martin's pace and to quote a famous philosopher from James Madison
University, "Dale Earnhardt is gettin' it done." The change from last year to
this year? Cars, cars, cars, cars ... and tires, tires, tires. Kevin Hamlin and company have hit upon a chassis configuration the Intimidator has a fondness
for and he has been one of the first drivers to get acclimated to the new
generation Goodyear tires. The net result? Two more top-fives and two
more top-10s than last season. Earnhardt is five spots better in points,
and a 217 points better than last year at this time. Will he sustain his current turnaround? It's always easier to attain than maintain, but the "Man in Black" can do it.
Jeff Burton
| |  | | | Burton |
I said it in February, and I'll say it again: If he can fix his qualifying woes, Burton could be a title contender. Burton and Earnhardt have each finished on the lead lap a series-high five times this season. Burton, however, still uses a provisional starting spot once every five races. THAT HAS TO IMPROVE. In the
first nine races of '99, he used one provisional. Fast forward to 2000.
Burton's used two provisionals. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see
that net loss. He's also averaging a finish of 12th. He led the points at this stage last year; he's fifth right now.
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ALSO SEE
Weber: Martin a model of consistency
Furr: First-quarter report
Stewart struggling through 'sophomore slump'
NAPA Auto Parts 500 Breakdown
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