22. That the five most underrated teams will be Oregon, Maryland, Michigan State, Auburn and Middle Tennessee State.

The underrateds:

	RB Onterrio Smith makes Oregon a dangerous team.

21. That the seven people with the most to prove this season are USC's Palmer, USC running back Justin Fargas, Miami running back Jarrett Payton, Texas quarterback Chris Simms, Nebraska quarterback Jammal Lord, Penn State coach Joe Paterno and Florida offensive coordinator Ed Zaunbrecher.

This is Palmer's last chance to do something special. He has had his moments, but not as many as he and USC followers thought he'd have by now. Palmer had a great spring, but now it has to translate to fall.

Fargas, a former national high school player of the year and Michigan man, has one season of eligibility left. He sat out 2001 after transferring from the Wolverines. A broken leg curtailed his career in Ann Arbor. Now he tries to re-establish himself back home in California.

Payton says his father's death, injuries and a position change affected him. Duh. Now he's back from fullback to tailback and trying to make an impact.

Simms has lots of great receivers to throw to, and no Major Applewhite on the sideline. Also, no more excuses.

There isn't too much pressure on Lord -- only replace Heisman Trophy winner Eric Crouch.

List the five winningest coaches during the last six years. JoePa isn't on it.

Ron Zook is the front guy, but the real pressure will be on Zaunbrecher, who comes to Gatorland from Marshall, where the Thundering Herd put up numbers comparable to Steve Spurrier's legendary Fun-N-Gun offense. But Zaunbrecher knows the MAC isn't the same as the SEC. He knows this because he used to be an assistant at LSU. Florida fans are spoiled rotten when it comes to scoring points, so Zaunbrecher will have to produce with an offense that will feature more shotgun, more no-huddle, more rollouts, more running than Spurrier's.

20. That no one will be able to adequately explain why the NCAA has a playoff system in place for Division I-AA, Division II and Division III football, but keeps stepping on its chin strap when it comes to a Division I-A working model.

In fact, D-II commissioners recently proposed a plan that would incorporate bowl games as part of their playoff schedule. Yet, when the same thing is mentioned for D I-A, you can hear the shrieks from Pasadena to Miami.

The present BCS format is in place through the 2006 bowl games. After that, who knows? Power broker conference commissioners such as the Big Ten's Jim Delany, Big East's Mike Tranghese, SEC's Mike Slive and ACC's John Swofford have already begun to do the think-tank thing and consider the possibilities: blow up the BCS, keep it and tweak it for the millionth time, return to the pure bowl system -- and the chaos that accompanied it -- or institute a playoff system.

For now, the latest BCS "improvements" feature: the elimination of the margin-of-victory component in the computer polls, at least a 9-3 and a top-12 BCS ranking to qualify for a BCS bowl, and an adjustment to the quality-win status (you now have to beat a Top 10 team, rather than a Top 15 team to qualify). What the BCS should have done is establish an oversight committee of sorts to clean up the inevitable end-of-the-season BCS mess. But there wasn't enough of a consensus to do that, so now everyone sweats out another five months and hopes we don't get another Oregon-Colorado-Nebraska computer controversy.

19. That George O'Leary will get a phone call from a major college program by season's end.

	George O'Leary has paid his penance and deserves another head coaching shot.

You know the O'Leary story: Did a boffo job at Georgia Tech ... was hired by Notre Dame ... was fired by Notre Dame for screwing the pooch on his resume ... was hired by the Minnesota Vikings as an assistant coach.

For now he's in football's Elba, but that won't last long. O'Leary has too many friends, is too good a coach, and has learned too valuable of a lesson to be on college football's outside looking in.

"George O'Leary is a very dear friend of mine," says Maryland's Friedgen, "probably one of the most honest men I know. I would trust him with my life. I just think it's really a tragic story."

O'Leary will do his time with the Vikings, rehab his image, and get another head coaching chance. He deserves it.

18. That the 2002 national champion won't go undefeated.

With the NCAA's blessings, most schools are playing 12 regular season games (cha-ching!). Florida State is playing 13 games this season. So is Maryland, Nebraska, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Virginia Tech, among others.

The Cornhuskers could conceivably play 15 games in all (13, plus the conference championship game, plus a bowl game). Which once again begs the question: If college presidents are so concerned about the evils of a playoff system, the physical wear and tear on players, the trickle-down effect on academics, etc., how is it that Nebraska finds itself with a possible 15-game regular-season schedule, one less than NFL teams play? Why not play an 11- or 12-game schedule and then have a Football Final Four: four teams, three games, one champion? That would still be at least one less game than the Cornhuskers could play this season.

"I think it would be kind of interesting to have a playoff," says North Carolina guard Jeb Terry. "I definitely think it would be worth the tradeoff. We played 13 (games last season). I think the length of the season doesn't matter. If we're not playing, we'd be working out."

17. That by midseason you'll know these five names (NFL scouts will)

"There's not a lazy bone in his body," says Auburn's Tuberville. "If he stays healthy he'll be the best running back in our league -- him and [LSU's LaBrandon] Toefield. We'll be lucky to keep him after next year. If he stays healthy he's going to make a lot of money."

16. That these five players will be sitting in New York City come time to pick a Heisman

Trophy winner: Florida quarterback Rex Grossman, Oregon running back Onterrio Smith, Washington State quarterback Jason Gesser, Marshall quarterback Byron Leftwich, Miami quarterback Ken Dorsey.

Our flyer picks if some of these guys flop (four of our five preseason 2001 Heisman choices didn't make it to NYC): Tennessee wide receiver Kelley Washington, Louisville quarterback Dave Ragone, Texas quarterback Chris Simms, Miami of Ohio quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, Iowa State quarterback Seneca Wallace and Ole Miss quarterback Eli Manning.

	Surprisingly, Clemson's Tommy Bowden is one of the names of coaches on the hot seat.

15. That it might be in the following coaches' best interest to win plenty of games this season ... or else:

Duke's Carl Franks, Baylor's Kevin Steele and Clemson's Tommy Bowden (normally you wouldn't stick Bowden on this list, but in this case you have to allow for the Clemson impatience factor).

The weird part about Bowden's situation is that his old man could make things a little dicey for him -- that is, if Bobby Bowden's FSU team beats the Tigers Oct. 3 at Tallahassee. None of this kind of pressure is new to the Bowden boys.

"They've seen me hung in effigy, seen my name on a sheet where it said, 'Bye, Bye, Bobby,'" says the elder Bowden, recalling his days at West Virginia. As for Tommy's fate: "I don't think they're ready to push the button."

14. That for only the third time in the last 14 seasons, Tennessee won't have a running back who gains at least 900 net rushing yards.

The program that gave you Travis Stephens, Jamal Lewis, Charlie Garner, James Stewart, Travis Henry and even Onterrio Smith -- before he transferred to Oregon -- has one of those happy problems: too much depth in the backfield.

That means the Vols will try to turn the versatile Derrick Tinsley into a poor man's Josh Reed (another former running back) and use him out of the backfield, in motion, in the slot ... whatever creates a mismatch. Figure that most of the carries will go to the tag team of Cedric Houston and Jabari Davis, though UT coaches also say they're not going to redshirt heralded freshman Gerald Riggs Jr.

13. That the 12-game regular season schedule is here to stay.

12. That Duke will avoid surpassing Northwestern's record for football futility. Please.

The Blue Devils are 0-23, and counting. Twelve more consecutive losses and they move to No. 1 on the list no one wants to lead: all-time longest losing streak in D I-A. Northwestern has 34.

Duke's best chance to end the streak is probably Sept. 28 at Navy, which also went winless in 2001. But even that game isn't close to being a gimme. Navy has a new coach, a new offensive system in the triple-option and will have the home field. The Blue Devils, who have exactly one senior on the scholarship roster, will be playing their third consecutive road game in as many weeks. Plus, it will be the fourth game of a stretch that starts with Louisville, then Northwestern, then Florida State.

11. That BMOC won't be the only one with some explaining to do when it comes to preseason predictions. A sampling:

South Carolina's Holtz: Zook will win at Florida ("Florida's going to be Florida. When Bo Schembechler left Michigan, they didn't change helmets.") ... it's harder to win a national championship as an SEC member than any other conference ... Georgia is the best team in the league.

North Carolina State quarterback Philip Rivers: Even though he's 20, married, just had a kid, goes to school and plays major college football, no, his life isn't going to change at all (Talk to us when the kid starts crying in the middle of the night) ... Florida State isn't back -- yet. ("Last year we showed they were vulnerable, it's not that they're unbeatable. It's definitely a wide-open conference.")

Oregon coach Mike Bellotti: If Onterrio Smith can stay healthy and trouble-free, he'll attract a lot of attention ("A lot of people are watching, the NFL is watching. He's a person of interest."). Doesn't sound as if Smith will be returning for his senior season, does it?

Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville: No way will the Tigers go in the tank, as they did in last season's 31-7 loss to 'Bama in the Iron Bowl. ("Obviously in this state, the one game that controls my livelihood [is Auburn vs. Alabama]. Our program is as good as it's been. It's going north, not going south. One of my assistants said, 'Coach, we on the hot seat?' I said, 'I might not be, but you are.' But that's a game we will play better than we did last year.")

Wisconsin star receiver Lee Evans: If the rehab on his surgically repaired knee continues as planned (he tore his ACL in the spring game), Evans says he wants to be back, at the latest, for the first Big Ten game -- Oct. 5 vs. Penn State. ("I'm 80 percent physical [recovered], but I've got to be 100 percent confident.")

10. That the media hack who recently conducted the following interview at the Big Ten get-together in Chicago is feeling a little silly.

Hack: "Coach Turner, can you win the Big Ten?"

Coach: "It's a lock."

Hack: "Can you replace Kurt Kittner?"

Coach: "Shoot, he was overrated. It was all coaching."

Problem was, the coach was Minnesota's Glen Mason, not Illinois' Ron Turner.

9. That Bobby Bowden will surpass Joe Paterno on the all-time victory list this season.

	Bowden usually finds the answers vs. the Irish.

Bowden is tied for second with Bear Bryant (323), compared to Joe Pa's 327. With a 13-game regular season schedule, a likely bowl appearance and a roster good enough to make the short list of national championship contenders, we like Bowden's chances to close the victories gap.

Paterno is coming off consecutive losing seasons for the first time in his 36-year career, but the 2002 Nittany Lions have the talent and potential to win at least seven, maybe as many as nine games -- depending on how Penn State handles things at Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin.

No matter how it shakes out, neither of these guys is going anywhere.

"It never pops into my mind," says Bowden, 72, of retirement. "I'd rather do this 'til I die. I hope I die on a football field." The only things that would cause him to leave: losing too many games, "or if I lose my desire."

Meanwhile, Paterno, 75, says only incompetence or health problems would hasten his departure.

"It's the way you lose," he says. "If I've lost control of the team ... disorganized ... these are ways I'd probably say I'd get out of this game, let somebody else take over. If I couldn't get up in the morning, go 14-15 hours a day, I'd get out."

Fellas, trust us: there's no hurry.

8. That the NCAA ought to listen to thoughtful, bright players such as Ohio State All-American Mike Doss.

Doss could have stiffed college for the NFL, but stuck around for his senior year. But the NCAA should have heard him last spring during a speech class, when he advocated a monthly stipend for scholarship football players. His pitch: the NCAA, its member institutions, TV, advertisers, coaches ... everybody makes money off the players' sweat and blood except, well, the players. His financial remedy: $300 per month stipend.

7. That few teams will play a more difficult schedule than San Jose State.

The Spartans play 13 games in 13 weeks. They only have four homes games. They'll travel nearly 24,000 miles, including trips to Washington, Ohio State, Hawaii, and Illinois. Only one starter returns on defense -- a unit that finished 115th in total defense last season.

And just when they think they have it tough, they can glance at their teammate Parry. Suddenly a road trip to Champaign won't seem so difficult.

6. That the best games in September will be:

	Oklahoma's Tommie Harris anchors what should be the best defense in the country.

5. That nobody at Memphis is holding their breath for an Albert Means triumphant return.

Means, who transferred from Alabama after it was revealed that he was basically sold out of high school to the highest booster bidder, was recently ruled academically ineligible this season. The much-heralded Means, a former Mr. Tennessee of football, played last season for Memphis and finished seventh in tackles. But his heart never seemed in it -- and his offseason conditioning and grades certainly reflected the indifference.

Memphis and coach Tommy West took a high risk/high reward chance on the 6'4", 335-pound defensive tackle. There was a community fund-raising drive at the time to pay the rent of Means' mother. There were battles fought with the NCAA to waive the customary one-season penalty for transferring. Academic support was in place.

Instead, the bizarre, sad saga has this for a likely epilogue: End To A Means.

4. That in an effort to diffuse the controversy over Jill Arrington's provocative four-photo layout in For Him Magazine, CBS will institute a revised and stringent dress code for the network's female sideline reporters:

3. That new SEC commissioner Mike Slive will do more interviews in a month than he did in a year as Conference USA commish.

You should have seen the poor guy at the SEC media days in Birmingham. There were about 525 hacks, and about 20 talk radio stations lined up on both sides of a hallway -- all yakking about SEC this, SEC that. Nothing against C-USA, but you could fit its media day contingent in a large service elevator.

Slive is visiting each SEC school, spending about a day and a half on each campus. Smart idea, given that there are NCAA bonfires, brush fires, or internal investigations at Alabama, LSU, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas and Mississippi State. No wonder ex-SEC commissioner Roy Kramer, who stopped by the media day festivities, looks 10 years younger.

"We'll finish them," says Slive of the assorted controversies, "and put them behind us."

Several close friends of Slive cautioned him against taking the job. It wasn't a good fit, they told him. But Slive liked the idea of being a major player, of effecting change, so he and his wife moved from their 34th-floor place in downtown Chicago to Birmingham. Of course, now that he's there, those same friends say not to underestimate Slive's intellect, his consensus-building abilities and his tenacity. Says Slive of the present mess: "I anticipate that we won't have these issues in the future."

Sounds good. Now all he has to do is convince the rest of the SEC to play nice. Good luck. "He's fixin' to get a rude awakening," says one SEC coach.

2. That the engraver will be writing these names at season's end:

Heisman Trophy: Florida's Rex Grossman.

No more Brock Berlin. No more Spurrier occasionally pulling him out of a game. A more confident, relaxed Grossman will put up enough numbers -- and victories -- to give him the Heisman edge over Oregon's Smith and Marshall's Leftwich.

Eddie Robinson/Football Writers Assn. of America Coach of the Year: Joe Paterno, Penn State.

It's called covering your bets.

1. Fiesta Bowl Matchup: Oklahoma vs. Florida State (FSU wins it.)

Other Eight: Tennessee, Michigan State, Texas, Georgia, Oregon, Miami, Florida, Colorado.

Waiting list: Michigan, Washington State, Washington, Nebraska, Ohio State.

Gene Wojciechowski is a senior writer at ESPN The Magazine. He can be reached at gene.wojciechowski@espnmag.com.