ESPNMAG.com - Atlanta Falcons

LAST SEASON: 7-9, 4th in NFC West
PROJECTION: 3rd in NFC South


	Dunn is looking to regain his Pro Bowl form.

Reeves has given Vick the keys to the car as well as a running mate in power back Duckett. They'll put on a show, but lose as many as they win: 8-8.

STRONG SIDE

RB: Dan Reeves promised FA Warrick Dunn 20 touches a game. Then he went out and drafted 254-pound T.J. Duckett in the first round. Dunn averaged 2.8 yards per carry in 2001 and had just three 100-yard games his last three seasons in Tampa Bay. But he was also a 2000 Pro Bowler who averaged 4.6 yards per carry and gained 1,133 yards that year. If Reeves wants to protect his young QB and open up the offense, he'll need both Duckett's time-consuming, grind-it-out style and Dunn's change-of-pace razzle-dazzle. Bet on Duckett to lead the team in carries and Dunn to lead in third-down draws.

WEAK SIDE

OL: Good thing Vick can run. The O-line that gave up 64 sacks last year, second-worst in the NFL, needs help. Rookie Martin Bibla and second-year man Kynan Forney could start at G next to second-year C Robert Garza. Atlanta's best lineman, LT Bob Whitfield, can't even watch Vick's back since the QB is lefthanded. Blindside protection falls to ex-Seahawk Todd Weiner, who can at least say he kept Trent Dilfer healthy.

NFC South

1. Buccaneers

2. Saints

3. Falcons

4. Panthers

Scouting Report Index

OTHER UNITS

QB: Michael Vick predicts 11 wins, so he still talks like a rookie. If he plays like one again -- 44.2% completion rate -- Atlanta will be lucky to win five. With a smaller playbook and all the practice snaps, Vick should improve. Even if he doesn't, backups Doug Johnson and Kurt Kittner won't see the field.

WR: The Falcons are loaded with dependable possession guys: Shawn Jefferson's missed only one game in 11 years; Willie Jackson grabbed 81 balls and averaged 12.9 ypc last season. But their most explosive pass-catcher is TE Alge Crumpler. What good is Vick's long ball if no one can catch up to it?

DL: The transition to the 3-4 will be easy because of the Falcons' versatility up front. Shane Dronett (6'6'', 300), Ed Jasper (6'2'', 293) and Travis Hall (6'5'', 295) can all play NT or DE. Wisely, the Falcons will keep Patrick Kerney (12 sacks in 2001) at DE after toying with moving him to LB.

LB: Keith Brooking's 167 tackles were the most by a Falcon in five years. Playing in a 3-4, his numbers will drop but he'll get more recognition as a pass-rusher. D-coordinator Wade Phillips loves second-year OLB Matt Stewart, who runs like a S, and Mark Simoneau, who can play inside or outside.

DB: Ashley Ambrose and Ray Buchanan (5 INTs each) blanket receivers, but the team ranked 30th in pass D, and 30th overall, because S Gerald McBurrows and CB Fred Weary were frequently beaten deep. Don't count on new S Keith Lyle to pick up the slack. He hasn't started a game since 2000.

ST: Jay Feely's 29 FGs were the most by a Falcon in six years. Darrick Vaughn's 24.4 yards per KO return were sixth best in the league. Can either of them punt? Chris Mohr (NFL-worst 38.8 ypp) can't.

This article appears in the September 16 issue of ESPN The Magazine.