I've got a big backlog of e-mail, giving me plenty of mailbag material. Here are more questions that deserve answers ... not that they all don't, but you know what I mean.
Park C. writes: Here's one for your mailbox. I saw Damon Minor hit two awesome home runs at Pac Bell last September, including one that would have been in the water if it hadn't hit the top of the foul pole. At the same time it's clear at a glance that the guy can only play first base. As you say, he's a good solid hitter looking for a job. Assuming his fielding is adequate (too small a sample for me to tell) I think the Giants should trade Snow now while his value is high, and tell Minor that he's the first baseman. He's 27, now is the time to get him into the lineup. Any comments?
Snow is below average as a first baseman in the modern context, at least offensively.
NL first basemen 2000: .371 OBP, .497 SLG
J.T. Snow 2000: .365 OBP, .459 SLG
Of course, J.T. provides outstanding defense at first base, which is why he stays in the lineup despite mediocre hitting numbers. Personally, I think his combination of below-average hitting and excellent defense balances out to make him an average first baseman. Unless you believe that Snow's defense saves 300 runs a year, it's hard to make the case otherwise.
How good is Minor? I have to admit, he's one of my favorite minor leaguers, since he's better than some people who have jobs, and is a superior prospect to his more-heralded brother Ryan. I was prepared to write that the Giants should have been willing to give Damon a shot over Snow.
After looking at the numbers, I can't write that.
Minor's defense is decent, but certainly not up to Snow standards. As for his bat, Minor could hit 25 homers in a full season if someone gave him the at-bats. His Major League Equivalency from 2000 is .344 OBP, .438 SLG. That's not as good as what Snow did. His 1999 numbers were similar: .348 OBP, .459 SLG.
Frankly, I've always assumed that Minor was likely a better hitter than Snow, but according to these numbers, that assumption looks incorrect. I'd rate them about the same as hitters, with Snow possibly a bit better. We already know who is better with the glove. Bottom line, right now Snow is a better player than Minor, even if he is much more expensive, not as cost-effective, and approaching the decline phase of his career.
That does not mean that Minor has no place on the roster. On the contrary, he could help several teams as a first base/DH/bench guy. I'd still rather have him out there than some ancient dude like Mark Grace. He is a useful guy for the Giants to keep around as insurance in case Snow gets hurt or suddenly ages.
Jeff K. writes: Hi John. The Reds have put forth a lot of effort and money into their once-terrible farm system through trades, good drafts, and infrastructure, such as a baseball academy in the Dominican and much, much more scouting. Do you think they have done enough that they could have a window of opportunity
around the time their new park opens in 2003 to put together a championship-caliber team?
The Reds have made terrific progress building their farm system over the last three years. They have potential stars in Drew Henson, Austin Kearns, Adam Dunn, Ben Broussard, Dane Sardinha and David Espinosa. They are thinner in pitching, and there isn't much depth behind the headline group. But they are definitely on the right track.
It's hard to say exactly when all this talent will coalesce -- 2003 looks reasonable, if everything develops according to plan. Of course, things seldom develop according to plan when human beings are concerned, but at least the Reds are loading the odds in their favor. I am worried about their pitching, however, and it's likely they will have to part with some of this offensive talent to recharge their mound staff.
George M. writes: I would disagree with your assesment of Cleveland prospect Zach Sorensen. If you look at the year he had in 2000 it might back up your statement about the lack of power (not every shortstop is an A-Rod) but certainly not about his level of play. While Scott Pratt seems to have leveled off, Zach had a great year at AA (Akron), AAA (Buffalo) and in the AFL. He saw a lot of action and came through at every level.
I wrote a few weeks ago that Zach Sorensen and Scott Pratt were big disappointments in the Indians system. George corrects me by pointing out that Sorensen actually played better than Pratt in '00, and he's quite right. It is also true that Sorensen played the best ball of his career in the Arizona Fall League, and has moved ahead of Pratt on the depth charts.
That said, I have to quibble just a bit. Sorensen didn't really have a "great" year in Double-A: he hit .259 with a .372 slugging percentage. I think he could hit .250 in the majors with some useful speed and an OK on-base percentage, but his lack of power is a major hindrance, and he doesn't have Vizquel-like defensive skills.
Still, of the Pratt/Sorensen pair, I do agree that Sorensen has the better chance to contribute.
Rexx writes: What about Vernon Wells? He was supposed to be the second coming of Roberto Clemente! Haven't heard much from him lately. Toronto didn't even use him late last season. I realize he didn't have a good AAA season in 2000. What are his prospects? It seems the Jays are perennially trying to trade Jose Cruz Jr. Is that to make room for Wells?
I don't think anyone compared Wells to Clemente, at least not that I heard. The most frequent comparison for Wells is a young Ron Gant. Wells struggled in Triple-A in 2000, but he's still just 22. I'm quite confident that he will emerge as a very good player, and probably a star. The Blue Jays seem to agree. They call him a Five Tool player. I prefer the term Seven Skills, but to each his own methodology.
You do hear a lot about Cruz Jr. being traded, but that's something of a cottage industry for rumormongers. The rumors are as much due to Wells' ability as they are due to disappointment in Cruz, who hasn't developed into the superstar slugger that most people expected. Cruz is entering his late 20s, prime years for breakouts. I would imagine that the Jays will want to make certain that Wells is ready for a job before they dump Cruz, and I wouldn't expect them to give Cruz away in any event.
J.M. writes: Christian Parra had the best year out of all the Braves' Myrtle Beach pitchers last year (17-4, 2.28 ERA), but many have ranked others, such as Matt McClendon, Matt Belisle, Horacio Ramirez, and Jung Bong, ahead of him. Why?
The basic reason is that Parra doesn't have the blazing fastball of McClendon, the outstanding youth and projectability of Belisle, and the southpaw arm of Ramirez and Bong. Parra is a good prospect, but there are lots of guys who post nice numbers in the Carolina League, only to disappear as prospects once they reach Double-A. I don't think that will happen to Parra, but I also don't think he's the best prospect in the bunch.
The potential ace here is Belisle, who has terrific command and throws very hard.
Note
I've updated by personal web site after ignoring it for two years (sorry about that). It's http://hometown.aol.com/jasickels/page1.html. It contains information about ongoing projects, and I'll update it with stuff like favorite links and other "personality" features as I go along.
John Sickels is the author of the STATS 2001 Minor League Scouting Notebook. You can e-mail your questions to him at JASickels@AOL.com.
| |
|
