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| Tuesday, July 23 Will a strike have an impact on minor leaguers? By John Sickels Special to ESPN.com |
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Some of you have asked about the book I'm writing about Bob Feller. I've been visiting the archives of The Sporting News in St. Louis this summer, going over their extensive collection of material about Feller. The basic research is virtually complete, and I should be getting into an intense writing groove soon. The book is not quite a straightforward traditional biography, but is more of an assessment of Feller's impact on the game. Today's image of baseball in the '30s, '40s and '50s, is centered on Williams and DiMaggio if you're from the East Coast, or Stan Musial if you're from the Midwest. But Feller was as big a star in his day as those people were, and a big part of the book will be attempting to re-create and express just how important he was in baseball history. If anyone has a Bob Feller story or anecdote to share, send it along. To the mailbag: Phil K. writes: Is there going to be a strike, and will it impact the minor leagues? I'm not an expert on labor matters. Whether they'll be a strike or not depends on whom you talk to. I've asked people in major-league organizations, and for the most part they are as much in the dark as the rest of us. I will say that no one I've talked to wants a strike or lockout, but it's split about 50/50 whether they think there will be one or not. Most people think the "negotiating atmosphere" is better than it was back in '94, which is a good sign. But they also point out that the atmosphere is not as good as it was a year ago, before the owners canned Paul Beeston as their negotiator. He was apparently making too much progress. My own personal opinion, and this is based on a combination of information and speculation, is that there is a strong cabal of owners, probably a majority of them, though not all of them, who want to force a once-and-for-all labor confrontation. They would do this either by forcing the players to strike, or by locking the players out and implementing a "solution" unilaterally after the season, if the players didn't strike. To be frank, I think their original plan was to lock the players out this past spring, but the events of last September made that politically impossible. That's just my opinion. Will there be a strike? My guess is yes, in mid-September. Will it kill the postseason? My guess is no; sanity will prevail at the last moment. I hope. There won't be an impact on the minor leagues, since the strike will probably occur after the minor leagues are finished. It does mean, though, that some players who might otherwise get September call-ups may stay in the minors if a strike looms. There would be no sense in having them idle when they could be in instructional league or the Arizona Fall League. In the unlikely event (I hope) that a strike or lockout extends into next spring, the minor leagues would not be impacted very much, if at all. Minor-league games would go on as scheduled; that was the plan in '94/95, and it would be the plan now as well. Dave from the Bronx writes: Why do you hate the Yankees so much? You were wrong about Alfonso Soriano, and you are wrong about the Yankees giving up too much for Jeff Weaver. Jordan from Missouri writes: I'm sick of you East Coast columnists praising the Yankees constantly. Why don't you write more about the teams in the Midwest? I'm tired of reading pro-Yankee bias. I love it when two contradictory messages appear in my in-box on the same day. I'll deal with the last question first. I don't live on the East Coast, and I've never been to New York City. I was born in Iowa, went to college in Missouri, and live in Kansas. I'm about as Midwestern as you can get without living on a farm. I don't think I've ever demonstrated "pro-Yankee bias," at least I hope not. The only team I might be biased in favor of is the Minnesota Twins, and the only team I might be biased against is the Milwaukee Brewers, though in that case my problem is with the ownership, not the team itself or its fans, for whom I have great sympathy. Now, to the first question. I did something of a mea culpa about Soriano a couple of months ago, and as the season progresses and he remains hot, it's apparent that I was too skeptical about him. He still lacks strike zone judgment, and I remain concerned that, at some point, pitchers will expose his weaknesses, much as they did Juan Samuel, a similar player. But it hasn't happened yet, and unless/until it does, I deserve to eat some crow. As for hating the Yankees, that isn't true. I actually admire the way they allocate resources. They're rich, yes, but they are also intelligent, which is what makes them competitive year in and year out. Say what you will about George Steinbrenner, but he's learned his lesson about relying solely on the free-agent market. They don't scrimp on the farm. As for the Weaver trade, several people have said that I was too negative. The basic argument is that, with Clemens aging and Mussina erratic, Weaver becomes the long-term anchor for the starting rotation, and as such is a superb acquisition, even if it cost Ted Lilly, plus two top prospects. I've been thinking about this for several days now, and I think this criticism may be right. It's a short-term move, yes, in that both John-Ford Griffin and Jason Arnold are likely to be fine players, and that Ted Lilly is already one. But it's true that Weaver has more "ace" potential than Lilly. He should thrive with a stronger supporting cast than he had in Detroit, and is more likely to hold up under the workload of a No. 1/2 starter than Lilly (who has a history of injury) is. So I think that this trade makes more sense for the Yankees than I thought it did at first, though I believe that my initial negativity was more because I'm a huge fan of both Griffin and Arnold, than it was because of any inherent anti-pinstripe bias. Steve S. writes: I've recently noticed a guy whom I've not seen mentioned previously, but who is putting up good power/speed numbers on Detroit's Double-A team, named Cody Ross. Can you tell me your thoughts on him and whether or not he looks to be a big-time prospect? He seems to be young enough at 21 in Double-A with good numbers, so I'm surprised I've not seen any news on him. Ross is a sleeper, and we should be hearing more about him over the next few months. As you mention, he is putting up intriguing power/speed numbers this year at Double-A Erie. He's hitting .289/.353./.540 through 79 games, with 15 steals to go with his 16 homers and 21 doubles. He isn't extremely patient, drawing just 26 walks so far in 328 plate appearances, but he doesn't strike out excessively, which gives him a good chance to control the strike zone at higher levels. At age 21, he has lots of development time left. His walk rate was a bit higher in A-ball than it has been in Double-A, and in the long run, I don't think plate discipline will be an insurmountable problem for him. Ross was drafted in the fourth round in 1999, out of high school in New Mexico. At 5-11, 180, he isn't a big toolsy physical monster that makes scouts sweat. But he has good athletic ability, works his tail off, and shows sound baseball instincts. I like him quite a bit. John E. asks: The Braves have a third baseman in Triple-A named Mike Hessman. I haven't heard any thing on him, but he is putting up good numbers. Can you tell me more about him, and does he have a chance to be a regular? Hessman is hitting .267/.321/.509 at Triple-A Richmond, bashing 20 homers with 56 RBI so far through 93 games. Hessman, 24, is very strong, intimidating in uniform at 6-5, 215. A 15th-round pick from a California high school in 1996, Hessman's raw power has been evident throughout his career. He slammed 26 homers last year in Double-A, for example. But, like many Atlanta prospects, he strikes out a lot, does not draw walks, and has little feeling for the strike zone. His best career batting average before this year was .247, and he entered 2002 with a career average of just .218. Hessman has shortened his swing a bit this year, but he still has just 22 walks in 358 plate appearances. His defense at third base is OK, not spectacular, but good enough if he hits. The problem I see for him is keeping his batting average and on-base percentage at a decent level. If the Braves stuck him in the major-league lineup for a whole season, he could very well hit 15-20 homers, maybe more. But he would struggle to hit .240, and his OBP would be very low. My guess is that he'll have a long career as a Triple-A slugger, though he still has a bit of time left to grow beyond that. John Sickels is the author of the 2002 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He is currently writing a biography of Bob Feller. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at johnsickels.com. |
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