After a first-half that featured Luis Gonzalez as the Home Run Derby champ -- and the runner-up in the real home run race -- and a stranger from the Far East as the most dynamic new position player, the 2001 baseball season has already had its share of unforseen developments.

What's next? Who can say for sure. But what follows is a bit of a guidebook for the next three months, as the pennant races take shape, the contenders separate from the pretenders and the postseason beckons.

Contending teams most likely to pull off blockbuster
1. New York Yankees. Because it's what they do. Because they're the Yankees. Because George won't sit still.

Series To Watch

Boston at New York, Sept. 7-10: This four-game set in the Bronx will be the last meeting of the two rivals and will likely determine the AL East title. Enough said. Minnesota at Cleveland, Sept. 28-30: Whaddaya know -- an unbalanced schedule special treat has the top two teams in the AL Central facing off for the final three games of the schedule. The week before, the two teams meet in the Metrodome, meaning the two will play one another six times in the final 10 days of the season. Atlanta at Philadelphia, Sept. 17-20: The Braves' nine-year streak of NL East championships could be on the line when they face the upstart Phils four times with two weeks remaining.

2. Chicago Cubs. Fred McGriff could just be the start. The Cubs have been very aggressive of late and have made inquiries everywhere. Finally, the Tribune may spend some of its billions.

3. Arizona. On the one hand, they're facing some economic concerns. On the other, owner Jerry Colangelo realizes that the Diamondbacks, with so many over-30 players (Curt Schilling, Randy Johnson, Matt Williams, Steve Finley, Jay Bell, Mark Grace, Luis Gonzalez etc.), are built for the here and now.

Out-of-contention teams most likely to sell off players
1. Cincinnati. As always, GM Jim Bowden is ready to wheel and deal. The Reds' season has been a disaster, but they have some veterans (Pete Harnisch, Dmitri Young, Pokey Reese) who have appeal.

2. Pittsburgh. It may take the appointment of a full-time GM to get the trade talk going in earnest, but the Bucs have some pitching (Todd Ritchie, Mike Williams, Jason Schmidt) which interest teams. After a string of disappointing seasons, the Pirates need to do something ... anything.

3. Kansas City. Now that the Twins are competitive, the Royals stand as the epitome of small-market blues. Jermaine Dye is being shopped and so too is Jeff Suppan, now that both are arbitration eligible and creeping toward free agency.

Best players likely to be traded

	Urbina is still in Montreal. But for how much longer?

1. Jason Giambi. A's GM Billy Beane keeps saying he won't, but unless the A's rip off a quick winning streak in the second half to get into wild-card contention, he runs the risk of having Giambi walk for nothing but a draft pick. In a few weeks, a package that includes Nick Johnson and a pitching prospect may prove irresistible.

2. Ugueth Urbina. Health questions aside -- and the radar readings seem to do just that -- Urbina is probably the best closer/reliever available, now that the Angels have decided to hang onto Troy Percival. Can we rule out the Yankees making another run at him?

3. Shannon Stewart. The Jays haven't made a definitive decision on whether to move him, but if they do, Stewart is a terrific hitter with blazing speed, even if his defense remains a weakness.

Managers/GMs who might not make it to season's end
1. Jim Bowden. He has always been a lightning rod for controversy, but he seems to have outdone himself this season with embarrassing remarks. The Reds are in the middle of a second straight disappointing season, and Bowden may have overstayed his welcome.

2. Randy Smith. After a brief flirtation with the .500 mark early on, the Tigers have sunk back out of sight. They haven't posted a winning season on Smith's watch, and the increased involvement of owner Mike Illitch's offspring probably doesn't bode well for the GM.

3. Tony Muser. Everybody from CEO David Glass to GM Allard Baird keeps insisting that Muser isn't in trouble. But the Royals went free-fallin' into the break -- losing their last seven in a row -- and are 19 games under .500. It may not be fair, but Muser could go.

Teams that can salvage their seasons
1. San Diego. Though the Padres could do some selling (Sterling Hitchcock, Phil Nevin), they also have a fertile system brimming with prospects expected to make an impact in 2002. The fact that they're around the .500 mark has only sped up their timetable.

2. Milwaukee. The Brewers go into the second half just a game behind St. Louis, last year's division champs. That's a measure of both how the Cards have slipped and how the Brewers have improved. If the Brewers can get the same consistency out of their young pitchers that they've already gotten from Ben Sheets, they'll be that much closer to contending next season.

3. Texas. One of baseball's biggest first-half disappointments, the Rangers can start to integrate some of their future (Carlos Pena, and, should he get signed, Mark Teixeira), giving them a head start on rebuilding. Having let Ken Caminiti go, the Rangers would like someone to take Andres Galarraga off their hands, too, and let some young players get some experience.

Call-ups who could make an impact
1. Bud Smith. LHP, St. Louis. Smith has been dominant at the minor-league level -- he threw two no-hitters last year at Double A -- and could contribute to the Cards in the second half. Mindful of the whole Rick Ankiel fiasco, the Cards have brought Smith along slowly. But it may be time.

2. Juan Diaz. 1B, Boston. Diaz was massively overweight in spring training and may have cost himself a chance to win a spot in the Red Sox lineup. But he's dropped some weight and continued to display great power. The Red Sox could use another bat, particularly if Carl Everett is going to be out for a while.

	Garciaparra

Injured players who could make an impact
1. Nomar Garciaparra. Dan Duquette has repeatedly said no team will acquire a player in the second half the magnitude of Garciaparra, who won the last two AL batting crowns. The best part, Duquette adds, is that he won't cost the Sox a player or a cent. Already improved from 10th to fourth in runs scored, the Red Sox offense will only get better when Nomahhhhh returns.

	Ortiz

2. David Ortiz. The Twins didn't have an abundance of offense to begin with, so the loss of Ortiz was a particularly tough one. Who knows if owner Carl Pohlad will OK any deals that will inflate the payroll, so Ortiz may be their best bet to improve.

3. Kevin Millwood/John Smoltz. The Braves' pitching isn't as deep as it once was. Tom Glavine recently went more than a month between wins. Either one of these right-handers would help the Braves greatly as they battle the Phillies.

Teams with the most favorable schedules
1. Yankees. They have 76 games left to play, but, incredibly, only 16 are against teams with winning records. Also, the Yanks finish with a steady diet of the White Sox (six games), Devil Rays (six games) and Orioles (six games).

2. Twins. They play just six games on the West Coast the rest of the way, and beginning July 31, their only games with winning teams are the nine they have with the Indians, the team they have to hold off. Just for good measure, six of those nine with the Tribe are at the Metrodome.

3. Dodgers. Who knows how the jumbled NL West will shake out? This much we do know: If it's a three-team scramble between the Dodgers, D-Backs and Giants, the Dodgers play 10 of their final 13 at home, including showdown series' with the Giants and Diamondbacks.

Teams that could end the Yankees' reign
1. Seattle. Never mind their terrific first-half -- the Mariners are strong everywhere, with dependable starters, a deep bullpen, speed and defense.

2. Arizona. Getting there may be the hard part, but should the Diamondbacks reach the postseason, their 1-2 combination of Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson would make them murder in a short series.

3. Boston. If Garciaparra comes back and is healthy for September. If Pedro Martinez's current shoulder problems are nothing more than tendinitis. If they get the rest of their long line of injured players back. If, if, if ...

Sean McAdam of the Providence Journal writes a major-league notebook each week during the baseball season for ESPN.com.