 |
| Wednesday, September 11 Updated: September 12, 12:52 PM ET Uncertain market facing 2003 free agents By Sean McAdam Special to ESPN.com |
||||||||||||||||||
|
As baseball digs out of from its recent 11th-hour settlement at the bargaining table, uncertainty is the operative phrase. No one -- not economists, not labor experts, not baseball lifers -- can be sure of the full effect of the new collective bargaining agreement. The stated goals of ownership -- resoration of competitive balance and a slowdown in salaries -- seem reasonable, but the first will take years to judge.
The game may, however, find a quicker answer to the matter of salary escalation. Even as the pennant races crystalize and a potentially fascinating postseason awaits on the horizon, baseball's business season begins in less than two months. By mid-November, when free agents become eligible to sign elsewhere, we should begin to the see the ramifications of the new agreement. Will big-spending teams committed to cost-cutting (Rangers and Red Sox) trim as much as promised? Will teams needing to improve after disappointing seasons (Dodgers and Mets) spend freely to do so? And, of course, what about the Yankees? Opinion is split on potential fallout. Some expect a further stratification, with superstars being rewarded and more and more players dropping into the baseball middle class. Some foresee even the marquee names having to accept less. And others doubt there will be much change at all. But one thing is for certain: it will interesting. "I think we're about to see one of the more fascinating offseasons we've seen in a long time," said a long-time baseball executive. "This winter is going to be all about good management -- how teams handle their budget, how well they anticipate the market and how quickly they move." Said a prominent agent: "I've got no doubt it will be different. How, I'm not sure. But clearly, there are elements to the new agreement which will cause some teams, perhaps some of the bigger teams, to reassess how they've been doing business." Then again, it may be tough to draw too many conclusions from this offseason. The free-agent market lacks the obvious star power of past seasons. While two years ago, bidders could choose from such stars as Alex Rodriguez, Mike Mussina and Manny Ramirez, this year's free-agent class features two perennial front-line pitchers (Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine), and then a big dropoff. Such an absence of elite free agents may delay a true test of the new economic landscape. In two years' time, when the free-agent class could include the likes of Pedro Martinez and Nomar Garciaparra, restraint may be a thing of the past. But the nation's economy, flat attendance and the newness of the agreement is expected to have a profound influence on how business is conducted this winter. Among the changes to expect:
"The whole key," said one front-office executive, "is to give yourself the flexibility to add during good years and subtract during bad years." Contracts that stretch into the next decade, and the next collective bargaining agreement, don't help.
It's become a rite of passage each fall for general managers to predict a glut of players non-tendered by their teams, but this time, as Johnny Rotten famously sang, "We mean it, maaaan!" "It's not free agency that kills a budget -- it's arbitration," says a weary AL executive. "At least with free agents, you can bid or not bid. In arbitration, you get locked in and are forced to overpay." Watch for teams to take a tough stance with arbitration-eligible players. They'll offer salaries that represent very modest bumps -- if any at all -- with the knowledge if they're not accepted, the players will be non-tendered and forced to get their asking price in a already depressed free-agent market.
Take Boston's Ugueth Urbina as a case study. Urbina has had a fine season (32 saves and counting) and is among the hardest-throwing closers in the business. But rather than see his present $6.7 million increase this winter, he's likely to have to settle for less. "Perhaps considerably less," warns another GM. Welcome to baseball's new middle class, where past salary doesn't guarantee a continued escalation. In all likelihood, Urbina will be given the opportunity to sign somewhere other than Boston for something in the neighborhood of $4 million -- take it or leave it.
One free-agent signing can impact many others, so agents will take the calculated gamble that Yankees owner George Steinbrenner -- or someone else -- will set the bar high again. But that comes with its own gambit: there could be a flood of patient players in January who find themselves out of work a month before the start of spring training. Then, the game of musical chairs will begin in earnest and there could be bargains all around.
In a little-publicized component of the new agreement, compensation for losing free agents has been eliminated. This is particularly poor timing for a team like Boston, which has the most free agents of any team (10), and had hoped to stockpile draft picks and improve its minor-league inventory as compensation for the likes of Urbina, Frank Castillo and other veterans who don't fit into their future plans. Small-market teams will, of course, be hurt the most. In the past, they could offer salary arbitration to a player whom they knew wouldn't accept, and get themselves a draft pick or two when the player went elsewhere.
Maddux and Glavine: A more cost-conscious ownership in Atlanta would seem to wipe out the possibility of these two aces remaining teammates with the Braves. Look for Glavine to stay and Maddux to be in the middle of a bidding war between teams out West -- Arizona, San Diego, Los Angeles and Anaheim. Jim Thome: Thome wants to remain in Cleveland. The Indians want him to stay, as well. GM Mark Shapiro's house-cleaning earlier this season seems to have cleared enough payroll room to keep him, albeit at a lesser figure than he might command elsewhere.
If Clemens would like to return to his native Texas to reach career win No. 300, meanwhile, both Lone Star teams are in cost-cutting mode. Astros owner Drayton McLane was crying poor-mouth even before peace was at hand and Rangers owner Tom Hicks has turned into the biggest hawk since Barry Goldwater. Ivan Rodriguez: When Rodriguez was a free agent last time, he walked into the Rangers team president's office and cut his own deal. That won't happen this time with Hicks ready to slash payroll and the Rangers wary of the condition of Pudge's back. Mike Stanton: A year ago, Stanton probably drooled over the contract signed by new teammate Steve Karsay (four years, $22.5 million), figuring that a new standard had been set for set-up men. Now, that's precisely the kind of deal that Steinbrenner can't afford anymore, and Stanton is just another non-closer with a lot of innings on his left arm. Sean McAdam of the Providence Journal covers baseball for ESPN.com. |
| |||||||||||||||||
