Rob Neyer

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Wednesday, September 11
 
Quick peek at free agents

By Rob Neyer
ESPN.com

With the great majority of the postseason spots locked up, it's not to early to discuss what's going to happen after the World Series, when a new crop of free agents hits the market.

Unfortunately for the Yankees and their fans, there's nobody as exciting as Jason Giambi available this time around. There will, on the other hand, be some fine players looking for new teams (or old teams offering new contracts), and the trick is to figure out not what the players have done, but rather what they will do.

There are a million ways to project a player's performance, but they all rely on the notion that players will tend to perform in the near future as they have in the recent past. To get an idea of each player's ability, I've created a stat line that's an amalgamation of this year's projected numbers (50 percent), last year's numbers (33 percent), and 2000's numbers (17 percent). Of course, when you look at this established level of ability, you also have to assume that his performance will decline if he's older than 30 years old, as nearly all of these players are.

So in no particular order, here are the biggest names among prospective free-agent hitters ...

Jeff Kent
Age: 35
Stats:

Games   OBP  Slug   Runs  RBI
 156   .383  .556    100  113

What's not to like?

Well, Kent's age; he turns 35 next March. But there's been little dropoff in his performance over the last three seasons, so there's little reason to think he won't be one of the league's top second basemen for another two or three years.

John Olerud
Age: 34
Stats:

Games   OBP  Slug   Runs  RBI
 157   .402  .490    91   102

Olerud turned 34 last month, but he seems to be aging like fine wine, with this season his best since joining the Mariners in 2000. Given Seattle's financial resources and Olerud's affection for his hometown, it'll be something of a shocker if he doesn't re-sign with the M's.

Edgardo Alfonzo
Age: 29
Stats:

Games   OBP Slug   Runs  RBI
 135   .382 .465    80    62

In a couple of respects, Alfonzo is the most attractive free agent out there. He's still young, and he can play at least two positions. On the other hand, Alfonzo's numbers are not overwhelming, as it appears that 2000 may have been his career year.

Ray Durham
Age: 31
Stats:

Games   OBP Slug   Runs  RBI
 151   .361 .457    111   69

It's unlikely that Durham will draw the same interest that Alfonzo does, and he probably doesn't deserve to. But is there really that much difference between them? What's more, Durham is incredibly durable; in eight seasons, he's never spent a day on the disabled list. Given a choice, I'd take Alfonzo. But Durham is probably going to bring more value for the dollar.

Robin Ventura
Age: 35
Stats:

Games   OBP  Slug   Runs  RBI
 143   .363  .453    64    80

Historically, third basemen haven't aged particularly well. So while a long-term deal might be in Ventura's best interest, it might not be in the best interest of the team that signs him. With Drew Henson nowhere near ready to play every day in the majors, the Yankees will certainly be tempted to re-sign Ventura. And if they can get him for just a year or two, all the better.

Cliff Floyd
Age: 30
Stats:

Games   OBP  Slug   Runs  RBI
 142   .385  .544    96    89

Floyd could be the biggest bargain of the winter. His counting stats aren't overwhelming -- 89 RBI for a guy who bats in the middle of the order? -- but that's due to his occasional stints on the DL and the quality of his teammates. If you want to know how good Floyd is, take a look at his on-base and slugging percentages. Put him in the middle of a good lineup, and he'll produce a lot of runs.

Reggie Sanders
Age: 35
Stats:

Games   OBP  Slug   Runs  RBI
 130   .326  .472    71    79

Sanders is currently working under the second of consecutive one-year contracts. Given Sanders' track record, anything longer doesn't make a lot of sense. He's certainly worth that one-year gamble, though.

Steve Finley
Age: 38
Stats:

Games   OBP  Slug   Runs  RBI
 147   .355  .480    78    82

Now here is a gamble. It's not uncommon for superstars to play great baseball even into their late 30s ... but Steve Finley isn't a superstar. He's making $6 million this season and certainly deserves a job next year, but he's going to have to take a pay cut.

Jose Hernandez
Age: 33
Stats:

Games   OBP  Slug   Runs  RBI
 151   .329  .454    68    72

Yes, Hernandez is probably going to shatter the single-season record for strikeouts. But he's also a pretty good hitter, maybe the best-hitting shortstop in the National League. He'll scare some teams away with the K's and Jeromy Burnitz has given a bad name to ex-Brewers, but Hernandez could be a good bargain for a smart club.

Ivan Rodriguez
Age: 31
Stats:

Games   OBP  Slug   Runs  RBI
 104   .355  .558    67    65

Pudge is still a fantastic player ... when he can play. And he hasn't been playing nearly often enough to justify the monsta-deal that people started talking about a few years ago. Tom Hicks has made some poor decisions since buying the Rangers, but not signing Rodriguez to a hefty contract extension was not one of them.

Jim Thome
Age: 32
Stats:

 
Games   OBP  Slug   Runs  RBI 
 152   .422  .619    101  116 

Did I say there weren't any prospective free agents as good as Jason Giambi? Well, it's true ... but just barely, because one could argue that Thome ranks right with the G-Man, and in fact Thome's only a few months older. While the Yankees shouldn't be counted out of the Jime Thome Sweepstakes quite yet, the Red Sox would seem to be more likely suitors.





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