Here are some initial impressions of the players picked in the first round in the 2002 draft. This year's draft class did not have a super-talent like Mark Prior available, and some of the players that went in the first round would have gone in the second or third round some years. But while the "peak" of talent was down this season, there was considerable depth, especially in high school pitching. The biggest weakness was college position players.
1. Pirates, Bryan Bullington, RHP, Ball State University
A 6-5, 210 pound right-hander, Bullington became the class of the college pitching ranks this year after Bobby Brownlie struggled with arm problems. His fastball peaks at 96 mph, though 91-94 is his usual range. His slider is very good, and he has enough pitching aptitude to improve his changeup. Scouts like his work ethic and mound demeanor. Statistically, his 139/18 K/BB ratio for Ball State implies that he should have little trouble with the low minors once he signs; he could reach Double-A very quickly. Bullington does not project as a true ace, but few scouts doubt that he'll be a successful major-league pitcher, assuming good health of course. You should assume that the standard injury disclaimer applies to all of these reports.
2. Devil Rays, B.J. Upton, SS, Greenbriar Christian HS, Chesapeake, Va.
In a draft that is fairly weak in position players, Upton stands out. One of the best overall athletes available this year, Upton is also a polished baseball player, drawing comparisons to a young Derek Jeter. His glove is superb: his arm, range, and hands all rate as above-average to excellent. He should have no trouble playing shortstop in pro ball. While Upton hit over .600 in high school this year, some people are uncertain about how much power he'll show with wood against professional competition. He is physically strong, but may not develop much more than gap power due to a line drive swing and a lanky body. He should hit for average, but will that be .280 or .320? He runs extremely well, so he'll be a basestealing danger when on base. Most experts consider Upton to be the best player in the draft this year, falling to the D-Rays only because the Pirates wanted a pitcher and were uncertain they could meet Upton's asking price.
3. Reds, Chris Gruler, RHP, Liberty HS, Brentwood, Calif.
High school pitching is very risky, but Gruler is one of those guys that scouting directors just can't pass up. The best high school pitcher in California, Gruler throws between 90 and 95 mph, getting great leverage from his strong 6-3, 200-pound body. He has a nasty curveball, and has shown signs of a plus changeup, though he hasn't used it much against high school competition. His control is good for his age, but will need improvement as he moves up. Scouts praise his work ethic and pitching instincts, and his mechanics are clean enough that his injury risk shouldn't be too excessive, provided that he's kept to a reasonable workload. He'll have to be bought away from Arizona State, but that shouldn't be too difficult.
4. Orioles, Adam Loewen, LHP, Fraser Valley Christian HS, Surrey, British Columbia
Another Arizona State signee, Loewen now holds the record for earliest drafting of a Canadian player. An intimidating 6-6 lefty, Loewen features remarkably good mechanics for a tall young hurler. His fastball ranges between 88 and 94 mph. His curveball is already professional caliber, devastating to left-handed hitters, and he throws it for strikes. His changeup is "good enough" right now, and should get better with more experience. Many scouts considered him, not Gruler, to be the best high school arm available this year. Loewen has great polish for a Canadian high school pitcher, due in part to experience in U.S. tourneys and an international summer tour with junior Team Canada last year.
5. Expos, Clint Everts, RHP, Cypress Falls HS, Houston, Texas
There was speculation that the Expos might take a "cheap" college player, due to financial strictures imposed by MLB. But GM Omar Minaya and his assistants showed integrity and adopted a "business as usual" philosophy, taking the best player (in their opinion) available, without worrying about the spectres of contraction or relocation. Everts doesn't have the size of Loewen or Gruler, standing 6-2 and weighing 170. But he can hit 94 mph, may have the best curveball in the draft, and has enough athletic ability that some teams ranked him higher as a shortstop than as a pitcher. He projects another inch or two and could add 20 pounds of muscle to his frame, which would increase his velocity even more. Even given the standard young pitcher injury disclaimer, and the bad track record of high school pitchers overall, Everts is a legitimate choice, and a good sign that the high mucky-mucks in MLB are not interfering with the baseball operations side of the Expos.
6. Royals, Zack Greinke, RHP, Apoka HS, Orlando, Fla.
The Kansas City press wanted the Royals to pick area prep John Mayberry, Jr. The Royals themselves were interested in adding college hitting to the system. But there were few good college hitters available this year, at least none worthy of the sixth-overall pick, so the Royals opted to add more pitching, choosing Florida prep Greinke. While gaudy high school statistics are best ignored, it is hard to overlook Greinke's tremendous 118/8 K/BB mark in 63 innings this year, especially since he throws strikes at 90-94 mph. That's unusually good control for a high school pitcher. Greinke also has a very good changeup, and a promising, though inconsistent, slider. He is otherwise very polished for his age, not at all like super-raw Colt Griffin, their first-round pick last season. Greinke should advance very quickly for a high school product, and has expressed the willingness to sign quickly.
7. Brewers, Prince Fielder, 1B, Eau Gaillie HS, Melbourne, Fla.
Poor Arizona State. Their recruiting class has been gutted. Fielder was the third Sun Devil signee to be picked, and it's extremely likely he'll sign. Scouts love his power; he has even more oomph in his bat than father Cecil. He hit over .500 this year, shows good plate discipline, and has an advanced understanding of the game, as is true with many sons of major leaguers. Prince also has an advanced understanding of the supper table, exceeding 300 pounds at times. He's down to 250 now, thanks to a strict diet and training regimen pushed by his father. Scouts worry that he won't be able to keep the weight off, which would likely limit him to DH duty in the long run. Few doubt he'll hit for power, perhaps even more than Dad did. This pick may have been a stretch at No. 7, in that there were more balanced players available. But the Brewers followed Prince closely this spring, so the pick is not a surprise.
8. Tigers, Scott Moore, SS, Cypress HS, Cypress, Calif.
A pure hitter, Moore draws comparisons to Chipper Jones and Eric Chavez, though his ultimate ceiling may not be quite as high. Scouts project above-average power, along with strong contact hitting ability and a good batting average. He does not have the range for shortstop at the professional level, and will likely move to third base fairly quickly, where his strong arm will be useful. He also runs well and should be able to steal bases in double figures, with more experience. Moore was rated as the best high school hitter in an otherwise down year for California hitting preps.
9. Rockies, Jeff Francis, LHP, University of British Columbia
Despite the apparent demise of the Expos, and the financial struggles of the Blue Jays, amateur baseball in Canada is on the upswing, as shown by the presence of two Canadians in the first nine picks. Francis was the top college lefty available this year, featuring a strong 6-5, 200 frame, an 88-93 mph heater, and a promising, if erratic, slider. His control is good, and he's pitched extremely well in summer competition against collegians from the United States. Francis went a few slots earlier than expected, and might not have gone in the first round in some draft classes, but he has smooth mechanics, a fresh arm, and a good feel for pitching. His velocity may increase, which would add to his potential.
10. Rangers, Drew Meyer, SS, University of South Carolina
This is the first pick that could be considered a genuine stretch. Meyer was one of the best college hitters available this year, but that's not saying much. He did hit .387 for South Carolina, but played poorly with wooden bats in summer competition the last two years. He does run well, steals bases easily, and could be a prototype leadoff man if things work out with wood. He is unlikely to show much power, however. His defense at shortstop is decent, though some people think he'll end up at second base eventually. The weakness of the college crop pretty much guaranteed that Meyer would go in the first round, but few expected him to go this early, and there were college guys available rated higher by most clubs.
11. Marlins, Jeremy Hermida, OF, Wheeler HS, Marietta, Ga.
Another high school hitter compared to Chipper Jones, Hermida was coveted by the home-state Braves, but the Marlins pulled the trigger before the Braves got a chance at him. Hermida has plus power from the left side, owns a smooth and polished swing, and is patient for a high school hitter. He has enough athletic ability to play either outfield corner. On pure hitting potential alone, he could be the first prep hitter from this year's draft class to reach the major leagues. He also works hard and draws praise for his instincts. Hermida must be bought away from Clemson, but the Marlins wouldn't have picked him if they didn't think they could sign him.
12. Angels, Joe Saunders, LHP, Virginia Tech
Saunders is a classic college left-hander. His fastball is average, running 88-92 mph, but he throws strikes with it consistently, and isn't afraid to use it inside against right-handers. His changeup is evil, and the fastball/change combo made short work of most college hitters. He posted a 102/22 K/BB mark in 98 innings for Virginia Tech, with a 9-2 record and 2.86 ERA. Saunders needs to sharpen his breaking pitch, which is only average right now. He should breeze through Class A, thanks to his overall polish on the mound. He won't be an ace, but projects as a solid member of a major-league rotation, provided that he improves his curve a bit more.
13. Padres, Khalil Greene, SS, Clemson University
A college senior, Greene turned down the Cubs when they drafted him in the 14th round last year as a junior. It was a good decision; he was probably the best player in the college ranks this year, hitting .475 with 22 homers and 14 steals for Clemson. His plate discipline is very good, he works his butt off, and is an instinctual player who succeeds above his natural tools. He has baseball skills, in other words. Greene may move to second base or even the outfield in pro ball, but few doubt that he'll hit, and hit well. I like this pick for the Padres.
14. Blue Jays, Russ Adams, SS, University of North Carolina
The new administration in Toronto is heavily influenced by the Billy Beane/sabermetric school of player development, and Adams fits into that category very nicely. He isn't an exceptional athlete, but is a fine overall baseball player, who understands the game. He stole 45 bases this year, will take a walk, and should do a good job as a leadoff man, though he may not show a lot of power with wood. His defense is solid, though his mediocre arm strength may move him to second base eventually. Adams would have been a second or third-round pick in most drafts, but the lack of college hitting talent increased his stock this year.
15. Mets, Scott Kazmir, LHP, Cypress Falls HS, Houston, Texas
Teammate of Expos first-rounder Clint Everts, Kazmir actually ranked ahead of him on some draft boards, but his expected bonus demands and smallish 6-0 frame dropped his stock a bit. Some teams may regret this. Kazmir may be short, but his fastball hits 95 mph regularly. Both his slider and curveball rate as above-average, and he has a changeup which, while he didn't use it much in high school, should be an effective pitch as a pro. His control is very good for a young power pitcher, and he could end up being the most dominant pitcher to come out of this draft class. As a high school pitcher, Kazmir is risky, of course, but the Mets could also have gotten a steal here.
16. Athletics, Nick Swisher, 1B, Ohio State University
The son of former major-league catcher (and first-round pick) Steve Swisher, Nick fits in perfect with Oakland's philosophy, being a power hitter with a patient approach at the plate. Being a switch-hitter gives him another advantage. Swisher is an excellent defensive first baseman who can also play the outfield, so he is not a one-dimensional slugger. Most teams didn't rate him this highly, but Oakland is looking to quickly recharge their farm system, and Swisher should help. They also had extra draft picks this year due to free agent defections, which is both an opportunity and a hindrance if you're on a budget, as Oakland is.
17. Phillies, Cole Hamels, LHP, Rancho Bernardo HS, San Diego, Calif.
Hamels was secondly only to Kazmir and Loewen among high school lefties according to most teams. He has a 90-mph fastball, and both his curve and changeup are already major-league quality. His command and control are excellent, and he has a bulldog attitude on the mound. Hamels' medical history scared some teams away: he broke his pitching arm (ouch!) two years ago, but has shown no long-term ill effects. This could end up being a very astute pick by the Phillies, as Hamels could reach the Show faster than any other high school pitcher. He would have gone in the top 10 were it not for the injury concern.
18. White Sox, Royce Ring, LHP, San Diego State University
Looking for quick help, the White Sox called Ring's name four or five slots sooner than expected, but shouldn't regret it. A top college closer, Ring fires a 92 mph fastball from the left side, along with a vicious curveball. His changeup is mediocre, but improvable. College closers have mixed track records; few of them have developed exactly as expected. Ring needs to polish up his command a bit, but should be in the upper minors quickly. Scouts like his "closer" attitude and demeanor. Such things can be overrated, but confidence is a requisite for any successful pitcher, and Ring has that in droves.
19. Dodgers, James Loney, 1B-LHP, Elkins HS, Missouri City, Texas
It will be interesting to see what the Dodgers do with Loney; they called his name as a first baseman/pitcher, though most teams see him as a pitcher only. On the mound, he features a 90-93 mph fastball, with more velocity likely as he matures physically. His curveball and changeup were good enough for high school, but will need sharpening at higher levels. He walked 28 in 54 innings, so his command needs work as well. At the plate, Loney offers plus power from the left side, but will have to prove that he can hit for average and get on base against good competition. Loney has tremendous raw potential both on the mound and at the plate, but will need careful and patient handling either way.
20. Twins, Denard Span, OF, Tampa Catholic HS, Tampa, Fla.
There are mixed reports about Span. Some rate him as a Kenny Lofton-style slap hitter, someone who'll hit for a great batting average, get on base, and steal plenty of bases, but who won't be a huge home run threat. Others see him as having Reggie Sanders-like power potential in addition to his speed. All agree that he has the range for center field, and is an exciting player to watch. He could have played football at the University of Florida, but seems likely to choose baseball as his career path, and shouldn't be too tough to sign. The Twins system is rich in power hitters, so he adds another dimension to the organization, though he won't help quickly.
21. Cubs, Bobby Brownlie, RHP, Rutgers University
Baseball America pegged Brownlie to go to the Cubs with the 21st pick two weeks ago, and they nailed that on the nose. Considered the best talent in the draft six months ago, his stock fell due to an erratic college season, a sore arm, and Scott Borasitis. The Cubs have enough money to sign him, so the latter shouldn't be a problem in the big picture. All rests on the health of his arm. When everything is right, Brownlie fires a 94-mph fastball and an excellent curve for strikes. He works well under pressure, and if the arm woes are minor (which they are said to be), this pick could be a steal.
22. Indians, Jeremy Guthrie, RHP, Stanford University
The fact that Guthrie is a Scott Boras client is about the only reason he fell this far; most experts felt he was worthy of going in the first 10-15 picks. Like Brownlie, Guthrie works at 90-95 mph, throws strikes with his breaking pitches, and knows what he is doing on the mound. At 23, he is a little older than most college pitchers, having spent two years on a Mormon mission, but that also means he's less likely to break down physically, and is more emotionally mature than most of his peers. Like most Stanford aces before him, he is compared to Mike Mussina, though Mussina's curveball is superior to Guthrie's. Even so, he should provide quick dividends for Cleveland.
23. Braves, Jeff Francoeur, OF, Parkview HS, Lilburn, Georgia
The Braves like high school players. They like raw athletes with football backgrounds. They especially like players from the Deep South, Georgia in particular. Francoeur qualifies on all accounts. He'll have to be bought away from Clemson football, but scouts drool over his raw power, speed, and strength. On the other hand, Francoeur often struggles to command the strike zone, and it remains to be seen if he'll adapt quickly, or at all, to professional pitching. This is a high-risk, though high-reward, pick.
24. Athletics, Joseph Blanton, RHP, University of Kentucky
Blanton was erratic and inconsistent in college, mixing dominant starts with weaker efforts, resulting in an ERA in excess of 4.50 for Kentucky this year. But he also fanned 133 in 100 innings, and showed strong command often enough to push himself into the first round. Blanton's fastball runs 90-93 mph, occasionally spiking to 95 when his mechanics are in good shape. His curve and change need some work, but both have promise, and he throws strikes more often than not. He's a classic late-first-round college right-hander, and could develop into a workhorse starter. Oakland has a good track record with similar pitchers.
25. Giants, Matt Cain, RHP, Houston HS, Germantown, Tenn.
The high school right-hander crop was deep enough that Cain could have easily gotten lost in the shuffle, but he did enough to get himself noticed. He already throws 90-92, and projects additional strength and muscle on his 6-3, 185 frame. His curveball is also very good. His competition in high school wasn't the best, and his control is not always sharp, so he'll need to be handled patiently.
26. Athletics, John McCurdy, SS, University of Maryland
McCurdy was a monster in college this year, hitting .443 with 19 homers and 20 steals. He knows how to hit, and should adapt rapidly to Oakland's style of hitting instruction. His bat is clearly first-round caliber, but questions about his defense hurt his standing with most clubs. His arm is strong enough for third base, but his hands aren't the best, and he lacks range. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him moved constantly along the defensive spectrum, winding up at first base or left field eventually. He will hit wherever they stick him.
27. Diamondbacks, Sergio Santos, SS, Mater Dei HS, Hacienda Heights, Calif.
A 6-3, 195 shortstop, Santos draws comparisons to people like Cal Ripken Jr. and Alex Rodriguez. Scouts see tremendous power potential in his body, and like his arm from third base and shortstop. But he has yet to hit consistently well in high school, hitting less than .400 this year, with not as much power as expected from a strong young man hitting with aluminum. Some people believe that the D-Backs have a real steal in Santos, and that he'll develop quickly. Others think that Santos is over-hyped and destined to be a disappointment. We shall see.
28. Mariners, John Mayberry Jr., 1B-OF, Rockhurst HS, Kansas City, Mo.
There was strong sentiment in the K.C. area for the Royals to take Mayberry, but once they passed him up, it was nearly a sure bet that he wouldn't be there for them to grab in the second round. While his dad was a slugging first baseman, Mayberry Jr. is an athletic player, compared to Jermaine Dye and Dave Winfield for his power potential, speed, and grace. He is also highly intelligent, with a Stanford scholarship in his pocket as a bargaining chip. Not everyone believes that Mayberry will hit well as a pro. He hit .432 this year, but the K.C. high school ranks are quite thin. Despite his physical pedigree and his intelligence, he isn't likely to advance quickly.
29. Astros, Derick Grigsby, RHP, Northeast Texas Community College
The Astros aren't afraid to take "gambles" on short pitchers that other teams avoid. Grigsby has a blistering 95-mph fastball, but as a 6-0 right-hander, he drew skepticism from many clubs. He needs to work on his secondary pitches and his control, but Houston has a good track record with similar talents.
30. Athletics, Ben Fritz, RHP, Fresno State University
"Double-Duty" Ben Fritz both pitched and caught at Fresno State, but scouts like him better on the mound. His fastball hits 90 mph, with movement, and his changeup is very good. His velocity should increase as he takes to pitching full-time. One college coach I spoke with earlier this spring told me that Fritz had the most potential of any pitcher his club had faced all season.
John Sickels is the author of the 2002 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He is currently writing a biography of Bob Feller. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at hometown.aol.com/jasickels/page1.html.
