By the end of weekend, the most popular or productive major leaguers will officially be on their way to Chicago for the 74th All-Star Game.

While a surge of votes for Hideki Matsui illustrates the volatility of the fan voting process, the next-to-last totals make it all but official that Jorge Posada, Edgar Martinez and Alex Rodriguez will be named to the American League team.

Another group of players, headed by Nomar Garciaparra, Bret Boone, Esteban Loaiza and Jamie Moyer has virtually assured itself of selection based on subjective merit.

The AL All-Stars

Note: Phil Rogers' projections factor in the impact of injuries, fan voting, the rule requiring each team to have one player on the team and to a lesser degree player voting. Starters C: Jorge Posada, Yankees 1B: Carlos Delgado, Blue Jays 2B: Alfonso Soriano, Yankees SS: Alex Rodriguez, Rangers 3B: Troy Glaus, Angels OF: Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners OF: Manny Ramirez, Red Sox OF: Hideki Matsui, Yankees DH: Edgar Martinez, Mariners Reserves Infielders (4) Hank Blalock, Rangers Bret Boone, Mariners Nomar Garciaparra, Red Sox Frank Thomas, White Sox Outfielders (5) Garret Anderson, Angels Rocco Baldelli, Devil Rays Melvin Mora, Orioles Vernon Wells, Blue Jays Dmitri Young, Tigers Catchers (2) A.J. Pierzynski, Twins Jason Varitek, Red Sox Pitchers (12) Roger Clemens, Yankees Brendan Donnelly, Angels Keith Foulke, Athletics Eddie Guardado, Twins Roy Halladay, Blue Jays Esteban Loaiza, White Sox Mike MacDougal, Royals Gil Meche, Mariners Jamie Moyer, Mariners Mark Mulder, Athletics Mike Mussina, Yankees C.C. Sabathia, Indians

But 30-40 other strong candidates remain on the bubble as a three-tiered selection process plays out for the first time. Nobody knows how to gauge the effect of players selecting eight pitchers (five starters and three relievers) and nine reserves in the AL. That doesn't mean we can't take educated guesses about the team, however.

It should be possible to reasonably judge the impact of injuries, the fan vote and the rule requiring each team to be represented. Figuring in those factors, it appears that White Sox first baseman/DH Frank Thomas and borderline outfielders Rocco Baldelli of Tampa Bay and Dmitri Young of Detroit have the most to gain.

Thomas is a tough call who won't have to apologize for a spot on the team. He currently ranks third in the AL in OPS.

But under the old format, Thomas would almost certainly have been squeezed off the team. Martinez is a deserving fan pick at DH. Jason Giambi and Mike Sweeney have driven in 17 and four more runs, respectively, than Thomas has.

The new system calls for both the fans and players to get one selection at each position, including DH. While Thomas' resurgence has come while he's playing first, he was listed as a DH on the ballot submitted to players last week.

The only other viable candidates behind Martinez are Anaheim's Brad Fullmer and Oakland's Erubiel Durazo. Fullmer recently underwent season-ending knee surgery, which would appear to leave the choice between Thomas (.287-20-46 with 59 walks) and Durazo (.279-9-43).

If Thomas doesn't get the call from his peers, it would be a stinging indictment. However, it should be pointed out that at least three-fourths of those voting weren't in the majors when he won his two MVP awards (1993 and '94).

The early look shows that deserving outfielders could have the most to lose. It will help, however, that Matsui jumped from seventh to second in the totals released on Monday. He's more deserving than the Twins' Torii Hunter, who dropped to fourth.

In the scenario I put together, Oakland's Eric Byrnes and White Sox newcomer Carl Everett -- both of whom are deserving of reserve spots -- will get the All-Star snub. That's because of the possibly cruel convergence of two factors -- fans are handing an undeserved spot to Seattle's Ichiro Suzuki (his .849 OPS ranks just 34th in the AL) and Young and Baldelli are the leading candidates to represent the Tigers and Devil Rays.

Sweeney, who is hitting .321 with 12 homers and 50 runs batted in, is deserving of a spot on the team. But he is out with a back injury and can't return from the disabled list until July 11, which is three days after the team will be named. It's likely that could keep him off the team -- a chain reaction that could jeopardize the All-Star standing of a starting pitcher.

The possible replacements for Sweeney are center fielder Carlos Beltran, who is hitting .291-11-41 despite missing the first two weeks of the season, and rookie closer Mike MacDougal, who has 20 saves. If AL manager Mike Scioscia does go with MacDougal, that would be one less spot for a pitcher.

Those most vulnerable to be bumped are Oakland's Tim Hudson and the Yankees' David Wells, who isn't exactly a hot commodity with Major League Baseball officials.

Both of those guys could wind up being pushed aside if MacDougal made the team and C.C. Sabathia, not Milton Bradley, wound up with Cleveland's lone spot. Bradley is deserving, but must survive the outfield puzzle.

Mark Mulder could be the only one of Oakland's Big Three to make it to U.S. Cellular, but it's really open to interpretation as to who has been the best of the three this season. Barry Zito, the reigning AL Cy Young winner, and Hudson are almost equally worthy candidates.

Phil Rogers is the national baseball writer for the Chicago Tribune, which has a Web site at www.chicagosports.com.