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| Friday, September 28 There's Bonds ... and then there's just Bonds By Jayson Stark ESPN.com |
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Six weeks ago, the National League MVP race looked too close to call by any open-minded human. Six weeks ago, the space separating Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa and Luis Gonzalez in this MVP derby was thinner than Ally McBeal. Six weeks ago, we broke down more numbers than Alan Greenspan and then announced that if we had to vote right then, we'd have voted for Sosa.
Well, we didn't have to vote right then. Nobody had to vote right then. Good thing. Because the month of September lay ahead. And in MVP races, as in pennant races, September matters. It matters for Gonzalez, who has hit just .211 in September (after five straight months hitting at least .310), with two homers and nine RBI. It matters for the Cubs, who -- despite Sosa's moments of brilliance -- have gone from 1½ games up in the wild-card race to 5 back by losing 10 of 17. And it matters for Bonds, who is in line for a player-of-the-month award after hitting .357, with 10 homers, 16 RBI and a .946 slugging percentage in September. So the question is: Is it still possible to rationalize giving this award to anyone other than Bonds -- who, at 37, would be the oldest MVP since Willie Stargell (then 39) in 1979? Well ... yes. But it requires major creative rationalization. So let's take a look at the case for some of the other candidates:
Sosa Sosa is on pace for only the second 60-homer, 150-RBI, 140-run season in history. The owner of the other was some fellow named George H. Ruth in 1927. Sosa is also a homer away from being the first player ever to make 60 home run trots in three different seasons. And he's right on schedule to finish with a total of 300 RBI plus runs scored. The only player to do that since the '30s is Ted Williams in 1949 (159 RBI, 150 runs). So maybe Sosa isn't making the same kind of history Bonds is making. But it sums up his career that there has never been a more spectacular best supporting actor. We also argued last month that Sosa was responsible for a much bigger hunk of his team's offense than Bonds. And in some respects, that hasn't changed, either, even though all three of Sosa's three three-homer games -- and 24 of his 59 home runs -- have come in the 50 games since Fred McGriff showed up. Take a look at the relative shares of their team's load by Sosa and Bonds.
Percent of team's runs scored
Percent of team's RBI So by that narrow definition, has Sosa meant more to his team's offense than Bonds has meant to the Giants? Yes indeed. We should also mention, Sosa has had a great September himself. He leads the major leagues in runs scored (21) this month. His batting average (.357) is identical to Bonds'. And the only National Leaguer who has outhomered Sosa (7) is Bonds (10). "His performance hasn't wavered, hasn't diminished one iota," said Cubs GM Andy MacPhail. "And just to give you an example of how he's gone about things -- Tuesday, we're down, 12-0, in the bottom of the fourth. Two outs. Two on. And he goes all-out and dives to make a catch, in a game we're losing, 12-0, on a cold, damp night in Pittsburgh. Now that's an MVP. "People might decide they want to vote for somebody else," MacPhail conceded. "But I don't think it should be because of anything Sammy has done. His accomplishments have never diminished."
Gonzalez But let's not lose sight of what an amazing season Gonzalez has had. He's still heading for 56 home runs, 140 RBI, 109 extra-base hits and 197 hits. And the only player who ever reached all four of those levels in the same season was that Babe Ruth character, in 1921. Also, of the Gonzalez-Sosa-Bonds group, Gonzalez's team is the only one that would be in the playoffs if the postseason started today. That counts with some voters -- even though the standard we use is simply whether a player's stats were rolled up in the context of meaningful games, as opposed to for a team that won. "His team's in first place, and he's been their best player," said Rockies coach Rich Donnelly. "Isn't that usually how it works?" It often is. But not this year. When it comes to Gonzalez's MVP chances, we have one pet peeve: The worst argument we've heard against Gonzalez's candidacy is that he can't be the MVP because Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling are the real MVPs on his team. We'll grant that the Diamondbacks would be the Brewers without Johnson and Schilling. But if we're using that argument, the Cubs' MVPs the first four months were their starting pitchers, too. Somebody has to pitch. Somebody has to produce the runs. Or teams don't win. So how do you penalize a man having a landmark offensive year because it's being supplemented by a high-profile pitching staff? We don't get it. Luis Gonzalez has had one of the great seasons of the last half-century. So if you wanted to argue his case, nobody would think you were nuts.
Albert Pujols In a season in which almost no one else around him has stayed healthy or consistent, Pujols has been his team's only metronome. He's started at least 30 games at four different positions, making him this field's most versatile candidate. He's the first rookie to lead the Cardinals in all three triple-crown categories since Rogers Hornsby. And he's gotten a hit in every series his team has played but three. Nevertheless, the only significant category in which Pujols leads all three of the prime candidates is doubles. And he's had 78 more at-bats (and 43 fewer walks) with runners in scoring postion than Bonds. So as much as he's meant to his team and its playoff run, Albert Pujols is not Bonds or Sosa. "They still pitch to Pujols, but almost nobody pitches to Bonds in a big spot," said one NL scout. "Everyone in the league knows Bonds and what he's capable of. This kid Pujols is a great hitter. But in the back of their minds, clubs might still have a little doubt about him." We'd place Pujols a strong fourth on our ballot. But he hasn't passed the big three.
Rest of the field Lance Berkman (.335, 121 RBI, 50 doubles, 33 homers, 88 extra-base hits) has numbers very similar to Pujols', except in a deeper lineup. And Jeff Bagwell (38 homers, 124 RBI, 119 runs) seems to belong on this ballot every year. Scott Rolen and Jimmy Rollins have played huge roles for the Phillies. Curt Schilling (10-1 against the NL West) and Randy Johnson deserve consideration. The Dodgers would have seceded from the race long ago without Shawn Green. And Mike Piazza and Chipper Jones have been their teams' MVPs, as always. But none of those guys is the league's MVP -- because there's ...
Bonds Six months from now -- maybe six years from now -- we start thinking: We just saw a man hit 71 home runs, have a .500 on-base percentage and an .830 slugging percentage, and break Babe Ruth's single-season walk record. He did all of that in a pennant race. And we didn't elect him MVP?
Boy, how stupid would that look? "If Barry Bonds doesn't win the NL MVP," said our friend, Joe Sheehan, of the Baseball Prospectus, "the award ceases to have meaning. You might as well give it to Principal Skinner, or Zippy the Clown." Well, we didn't consider Principal Skinner real seriously. But Zippy the Clown is definitely in our top 10. "If he hits 70 home runs on a team with a chance to win, it would be hard not to give it to him," said an NL scout who also favored Sosa a month ago. "Without him, that team would be down below the Dodgers, in the bottom of that division. They could find another hitter to put in there, sure. But he wouldn't have Barry's presence in the lineup. He's one of those guys that changes everything. If you even know he's coming up next inning, you pitch different." Elsewhere on this site, Dave Schoenfield details all of Bonds' credentials. We won't duplicate those credentials here. But when you attempt to put them in historical perspective, only one word applies: Ruthian. When you're talking this many home runs, and .800 slugging percentages, and 170 walks, and .500 on-base percentages, those aren't modern-day baseball numbers. Those are Babe Ruth numbers. That .837 slugging percentage is 85 points higher than anybody's since Ruth retired. Ruth's on-base percentage topped .500 five times. That's as many times as all the other players who have suited up since 1901 combined. Then you add in all the other stuff, and how do we even sustain an argument for anyone else? Sosa has many more RBI, true (148-128). But he also has nearly 40 more plate appearances with runners in scoring position (201 to 163) than Bonds. So for every Sosa argument, there's a valid Bonds counter-argument. "I don't know how people are going to sort it out," MacPhail said. "Sammy's done everything you'd want an MVP to do. But Bonds is having a once-in-a-lifetime season. His case is so unparalleled, you'd almost have to explain why he wasn't the MVP." You would. And we'd prefer not to. So Barry, clear some space on your shelf for that trophy. It'll be arriving by Thanksgiving. Jayson Stark is a senior writer for ESPN.com. |
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