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| Friday, September 28 Face the facts: Bonds is MVP By David Schoenfield ESPN.com |
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Dear National League MVP voters, I've been a baseball fan since 1976. In those 25 years, I've witnessed some amazing individual performances. I've seen George Brett chase .400, Rickey Henderson steal 130 bases, Jose Canseco go 40-40. I've seen Albert Belle hit 50 doubles and 50 homers in one season, Tony Gwynn hit .394 and Mark McGwire mash 70 home runs. But I've never seen anything like Barry Bonds in 2001. That's because none of us has. That is, unless you saw Babe Ruth playing back in 1921. Barry Bonds is about to complete the most dominating offensive season in National League history. One of the five greatest offensive seasons of all time. And he may not even win the Most Valuable Player Award. Yes, Sammy Sosa is having a monster year. He's better than he was in 1998, when he won the MVP. But this is Barry's year. Evidence: Bonds is slugging .836. You know how many National Leaguers have ever slugged .800? None. The NL record is .756, by Rogers Hornsby in 1924. Only one other man has slugged .800 in one season: Ruth (.847 in 1920 and .846 in 1921). No player has ever even challenged Ruth's record -- and Bonds may break it. Evidence: Bonds' on-base percentage is an eye-widening .502. Only four players since 1900 have reached base in half their plate appearances: Ruth, Hornsby, Ted Williams and Mickey Mantle. Nobody has accomplished the feat since Williams and Mantle in 1957. Evidence: Bonds' combined slugging percentage + on-base percentage (OPS) is 1.339. Only Ruth has topped that: 1.378 in 1920, 1.358 in 1921. Those are the two greatest offensive seasons of all time -- and Bonds is next in line. Ruth is the only player to top 1.300. Bonds' current mark is nearly 100 points better than Hornsby's NL record of 1.245. Maybe you know all this. Maybe you still think Sosa is the MVP. After all, Sosa has both scored more runs (135 to 117) and driven in more (148 to 128) than Bonds. And the Cubs have scored fewer runs than the Giants (715 to 743), perhaps making Sosa even more valuable in your mind. Maybe even Bonds isn't hitting in clutch situations? Wrong. Situation AVG OBP SLG Overall .319 .502 .837 Empty .285 .444 .802 Runners on .365 .569 .885 Scoring pos. .360 .627 .930 Close & late .319 .539 . 841 As you can see, Bonds' performance is actually better with runners on base than his overall performance. So why does Sosa have more runs and more RBI? Those are team function -- and even though the Cubs have scored fewer runs overall than the Giants, Sosa has benefited more from his place in the lineup. Cubs' leadoff hitters' OBP: .325 Giants' leadoff hitters' OBP: .306 Cubs' No. 2 hitters' OBP: .367 Giants' No. 2 hitters' OBP: .371 Both Bonds and Sosa have hit primarily in the No. 3 spot, but Sosa has had more runners on base for him -- especially when you consider that Rich Aurilia, the Giants' No. 2 hitter, has cleared the bases a few times himself (Giants' No. 2 hitters have 35 home runs and 99 RBI, compared to 15 and 64 for the Cubs). Also, the Cubs' No. 4 and No. 5 hitters have outperformed the Giants': Cubs' No. 4 hitters: 26 HR, 117 RBI Cubs' No. 5 hitters: 28 HR, 96 RBI Giants' No. 4 hitters: 26 HR, 105 RBI Giants' No. 5 hitters: 18 HR, 78 RBI And just because Bonds doesn't get the run scored or RBI doesn't mean he isn't contributing to the Giants scoring a run. Imagine this scenario: Marvin Benard or Aurilia singles, Bonds walks, Jeff Kent knocks in a run. The Giants have scored a run -- in part, thanks to Bonds' base on balls. There is an easy way to figure out how many runs Bonds has helped create. Bill James invented a statistic called Runs Created. We keep track of it here at ESPN.com. Runs Created works; if you add up all the individual totals for a team, they come very close to the team total of runs scored. Bonds has created 210 runs; Sosa 181. That 210 is a remarkable total -- the fifth-highest of all time, with nine games still to play. In case you're interested, here's the list 200 Runs Created in one season: Babe Ruth, 1921 239 Babe Ruth, 1923 223 Lou Gehrig, 1927 212 Babe Ruth, 1920 212 Barry Bonds, 2001 210 Jimmie Foxx, 1932 209 Babe Ruth, 1927 208 Ty Cobb, 1911 207 Babe Ruth, 1924 205 Ted Williams, 1941 202 Rogers Hornsby, 1922 200 By the way, I mentioned earlier that the Giants have outscored the Cubs by 22 runs this year; Bonds has created 29 more runs than Sosa. Thus, instead of giving extra to Sosa for playing in a worse offense, I would say that it's actually the difference between Bonds and Sosa that has made the Giants more productive than the Cubs. One last argument. And this is important as well. Bonds has done all this while creating fewer outs than Sosa.
Sosa has 368 at-bats minus hits, plus 11 sacrifice flies, 5 GIDPs and 2 caught stealings for 386 outs You can probably do the math, but that's 67 fewer outs Bonds has made -- that means more plate appearances and more chances for his teammates to help score more runs. Look, Sosa has been amazing this year. But he doesn't get any extra credit for his fielding or baserunning over Bonds. Both players have performed in a playoff chase. But only one of them is the MVP. Consider your vote carefully.
David Schoenfield |
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