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Monday, October 22
Updated: October 24, 1:04 PM ET
 
Eastern team in West will lose lots

Team page/schedule | Stats: Preseason | Roster
Last year: 23-59, seventh in Midwest, 12th in conference
Coach/GM: Sidney Lowe/Billy Knight
Arena, first game: The Pyramid (19,342); Will be Nov. 1, 2001
All-time franchise record/NBA titles: 101-359/0
Notable: Lowe used 18 different starting lineups last year

THE ROTATION
Pos Player Key Stat Skinny
PG Jason Williams .407 FG Will he play out of control for crowd?
SG Michael Dickerson 16.3 ppg Should lead team in scoring easily
SF Shane Battier rookie Best all-around rookie won't like losing
PF Stromile Swift 82 blocks Year two will be better for No. 2 pick
C Lorenzen Wright 12.4 ppg Sleeper can't be worse than Big Country
6th Pau Gasol rookie The next Dirk isn't ready for minutes
7th Brevin Knight .375 FG Tiny, can't shoot, but a good floor general
8th Grant Long 6 ppg Veteran presence at 35


The Grizzlies will be an improved team. I like Shane Battier, who is a solid all-around player. Pau Gasol might be a bolt out of the blue. If he is, then the Grizzlies could be a force. Between Jason Williams and Brevin Knight, they have two contrasting styles at point guard. Knight is very conservative and makes the fundamental play, while Williams tends to look for the spectacular play. Williams will make a big difference if he plays a team-first game. Bryant Reeves needs to step up, although Lorenzen Wright and Ike Austin are there to back him. Michael Dickerson is a solid player. If Gasol comes through and Battier holds up, they could make a run, but I don't see the Grizzlies moving into a playoff position.

By Marc Stein
Special to ESPN.com

The Grizz, folks, are still the Grizz. Doesn't matter where they play. They're still the not-so-cuddly crew that, after six seasons, hasn't come close to Denny McClain territory. Thirty wins? Last season was the best season in franchise history, and Vancouver's record was 23-59. Never have Michael Jordan's mystical digits been so besmirched.

The move to Memphis represents a fresh start, obviously, but the results are bound to get worse before they get better. Overnight. Absolutely. Positively. That's when happens you trade your only Dream Team talent for prospects and castoffs. That's what happens when your map coordinates say East and the schedule says you're still in the unforgiving Western Conference. Twenty-three wins? They'll need the graceland of G-d to get there.

Who's Who
You used to know the Grizz as Shareef Abdur-Rahim and Mike Bibby. They're both gone, replaced by names that don't look so great on paper ... unless the paper in question is a marketing brochure or ticket leaflet. Jason Williams and Memphis' own Lorenzen Wright will generate considerable interest as the new starters in place of Bibby and Reef, along with Rookie of the Year contender Shane Battier, but won't fare so well in the quest for respectability. The West is nasty again this season and the Grizz are fielding too many baby cubs at too many power positions: Battier, Pau Gasol, Stromile Swift. Brevin Knight is all right as a backup point guard, but the other bench headliners are Big Country Reeves, Ike Austin and Nick Anderson. An interior presence, offensively and defensively, is sorely lacking. The guards will have to do the bulk of the scoring.

FANTASY SLEEPER
Lorenzen Wright, C -- Jason Williams, Stromile Swift and Shane Battier all qualify as good sleeper picks on the Memphis roster, but Wright warrants the most attention here due to the league-wide lack of quality at the center position. It's not a stretch to think Wright will put up 15 points, 10 boards and a block per night, which makes him a top 10 fantasy center.

The Big Question
Bitter pretend Canadians we know (yes, us) are still wondering what would possess Michael Heisley to leave breathtaking Vancouver for Fed Ex country. But it's time to let go of that one. Since the Grizz also can't take back the draft-night trades -- you can see trading Reef or Bibby, but both (and for so little)? -- it's time to spin forward. So, what about Pau Gasol? Can he really be the "next Dirk Nowitzki," as some European scouts project? GMs we've checked with are impressed. They say Gasol isn't the offensive machine Nowitzki has become, but that the Spaniard should cope better defensively than Dirk as he develops. Gasol better end up that good if the Grizz ever want to live down their Reef dumping. Just don't expect it in season No. 1; remember how much Nowitzki struggled when he first came over? Eventually, though, the mix will make a lot more sense (or at least some sense) if Gasol becomes the multi-position threat Memphis execs think he can be.

Best Case Scenario
Michael Dickerson will score 20 a game and prove to everyone that, yes, Vancouver/Memphis was smart to keep him and dump the other two horses. JWill, meanwhile, will live up to his contract extension without beheading a single courtside fan with an errant no-looker. Battier will win ROY honors, Gasol will challenge him and Swift will make everyone forget his rookie no-show. And it still won't add up to more than 25 wins.

Worst Case Scenario
Also known as the probable scenario. Dickerson will continue to be unhappy that he didn't get exiled along with his buddy Bibby. Williams will act as a lone gunman too often. Battier will be as unspectacular as draftniks warned. And the Gasol/Swift tag team will progress slowly and painfully. Hope Memphians are enjoying all this preseason success, because wins will be scarce once Halloween comes. Fifteen-to-20 is the safer projection. Denny McClain and MJ are safe this season.

OVERRATED UNDERRATED TEAM MVP
Bryant Reeves. Look up overrated in a dictionary and his picture is there. Michael Dickerson. How many teams wouldn't want this guy around? Lorenzen Wright. Watch him build on those Atlanta numbers and fulfill prior expectations.






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