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Monday, October 22
Updated: October 24, 12:51 PM ET
 
Rotten summer might prevent playoff berth

Team page/schedule | Stats: Preseason | Roster
Last year: 45-37, fifth in Midwest, ninth in conference
Coach/GM: Rudy Tomjanovich/Carroll Dawson
Arena, first game: Compaq Center (16,285); Nov. 2, 1975
All-time franchise record/NBA titles: 1,376-1,380/2
Notable: Became second team to sweep a division (Central)

THE ROTATION
Pos Player Key Stat Skinny
PG Steve Francis 6.5 apg Only NBA player with 500 rebs and assists
SG Cuttino Mobley 20.5 ppg Started 49 times, now starts for good
SF Glen Rice 12 ppg Last few years haven't gone well at all
PF Kenny Thomas .443 FG Man, Mo Taylor would have gone well here
C Kelvin Cato 31 blocks Marc Jackson would've gone well here
6th Moochie Norris 151 FT Sparkplug insomniac has big contract
7th Eddie Griffin rookie Should block shots, but very raw
8th Kevin Willis 9.3 ppg Nugget castaway may start over Thomas


The Rockets' biggest factor is for Kelvin Cato to step up and be a defensive asset in the middle and score enough to keep other teams honest. Houston has firepower, with a great player in Steve Francis and a solid Cuttino Mobley. Maurice Taylor is lost for the season, but the Rockets now have Kevin Willis to go with Kenny Thomas and some younger players. The Rockets are salivating over making the playoffs, but I don't know if they can make it. Cato will be the key, as well as anything they can get from their big forwards. It will be tough for Houston to move ahead of a playoff team from a year ago.

By Marc Stein
Special to ESPN.com

Cal Ripken and Tony Gwynn just left their game, only a month or so ago, wearing (roughly) the same uniforms they came in sporting. Hakeem Olajuwon simply left. The dreamy face of the Rockets' franchise, not satisfied with his two championships and the chance to retire in the only American city he has ever known, bolted for Canada and the prospect of one last title run.

Although the Rockets can't say so publicly, given Dream's status as Houston royalty, they actually might not have minded so much had they been able to count on Maurice Taylor. Or if they could have replaced Mo with Marc Jackson. Instead, with Taylor out for the season and Jackson stuck in Golden State, the Rockets are missing Dream already. They've got no dependable size otherwise (thus the Kevin Willis deal) and are thus forced to put their faith in Kelvin Cato, who one Houston columnist has dubbed "The Hallucination." Which is why a playoff berth, no matter how good Stevie Franchise and Cuttino Mobley look, is probably fantasy this season.

Who's Who
Had they known how it would all turn out, Rockets management would undoubtedly ask for a summer do-over and go with the original plan: Go after Chris Webber. They scratched that idea to focus on keeping their own free agents, but, as noted earlier in the Olajuwon tribute, the plan didn't pan out. Shandon Anderson (New York) and Matt Bullard (Charlotte) also departed. And the attempt to sign Jackson with Taylor's injury exception was foiled by Golden State at the matching buzzer. Thus the only impact newcomers are Eddie Griffin and Glen Rice, and each comes with a disclaimer. Griffin could be a steal as the No. 7 pick in the draft, or he could live up to the character concerns that dropped him from the top three to seven. Rice could be the perimeter threat Houston has needed, but his suspect feet have to keep him on the court. Plantar and fasciitis are words you don't want to be hearing at Rice's age (34). Especially since the Rockets have already lost Taylor to an Achilles' tear, which seemingly happened about five minutes after Mo got that six-year, $48 million contract.

FANTASY SLEEPER
Kenny Thomas, SF -- Despite standing just 6-7, Thomas will be asked to man the power forward spot, with rail thin 19-year old Eddie Griffin backing up. You can see why Marc Jackson was considered such a big opportunity lost for Houston. But all is not lost if Thomas can stay healthy. He has solid post moves and a good ability to clean the glass. Don't be surprised if he's winds up averaging a double-double in the neighborhood of 11 points and 10 rebounds.

The Big Question
As always, there are a few. Who will get rebounds on this team? It was Stevie F. last season, and, frankly, he has enough to do elsewhere. Rudy T. would really appreciate it if his point guard didn't have to serve as the team's leading board man. Another uncertainty: How will the Rockets adjust to the new rules? Isolation was the bastion of the Houston offense, and Tomjanovich still thinks Francis and Mobley will get quality looks, but they all know the new rules were aimed specifically at stopping their brand of clear-out ball. Furthermore, there is some skepticism about Rice's ability to prosper on the perimeter without an attention-grabber down low. Tomjanovich disputes that one, too, insisting that Rice can get just as many open shots from Francis and Mobley drives as he might have from Dream kick-outs. As big Rudy T. fans, we'll trust him there.

Best Case Scenario
Francis will make the All-Star team, Mobley and Rice will stay healthy and score freely, rookies Terence Morris and Oscar Torres will contribute immediately and The Hallucination will decide, just for fun, to live up to his $42 million contract and average a double-double. Best-case still only adds up to 40-something wins and maybe the No. 8 slot in a conference that shows no mercy.

Worst Case Scenario
Mobley's pre-season aches and pains will linger, Rice will limp and sulk and Francis will wind up having to grab the rebounds, hustle the ball across the timeline in eight seconds every time and throw alley-oops to himself. Remember last season, when the Rockets won more games (45) than any non-playoff team since the NBA Tournament was expanded to eight teams in each conference. Without a tangible frontcourt or bench, they could end up closer to 35 wins this time.

OVERRATED UNDERRATED TEAM MVP
Kelvin Cato. At his size and relative experience, his numbers really don't cut it. Moochie Norris. Some teams could start this guy at PG. Steve Francis. Only 18 players in history have led a team in pts, rebs and asts.






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