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| Sunday, December 23 Updated: December 28, 12:04 PM ET Reaching NBA easy as 1, 2, 3 seasons By Andy Katz ESPN.com |
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This isn't about the NBA draft. This isn't about underclassmen in the NBA draft. It isn't about high school players skipping college. This is about the changing landscape of college basketball. This is about how 2001-02 will be remembered as the season when the four-year player was surpassed by the three-year player. This is the season coaches will remember when having a three-year player meant having a veteran, an elite player, a leader, a go-to guy who was in the stable and felt he had no where else to go after year three but to the NBA.
It's the time when the "Three-Year Plan" went public. When the junior partners took over. When names like Jason Williams, Mike Dunleavy, Carlos Boozer, Kareem Rush, Casey Jacobsen, Jason Kapono, Troy Bell, Brett Nelson, Drew Gooden, Nick Collison, Jason Gardner and Frank Williams changed the way those who followed planned for their basketball futures. Each are leaders of their respective teams. All are in their third season of eligibility. Every one of them could declare for the NBA draft in June and no one would be shocked -- not even the coaches on their respective teams. In reality, their coaches would feel blessed they had each this long. "If you stay in school more than two years then you're considered to be a veteran," said Kapono, an all-American candidate at UCLA. "Two years of college basketball makes you a savvy veteran." This isn't about whether or not they're ready to play in the NBA. This is more about the reality of the culture in college basketball. It's about adapting to an era when players are being lured into The League earlier and earlier. It's about adopting a "Three-Year Plan" that just may give those players a chance to also leave with a degree in hand. It's no secret the stay in college is becoming shorter for the elite players, save a few exceptions like Kentucky's Tayshaun Prince, Temple's Lynn Greer, Syracuse's Preston Shumpert and UCLA's Dan Gadzuric. But at least two of these seniors thought about leaving last season (Greer and Shumpert didn't), and none are locks for the lottery, anyway. And we're not even discussing the need for four-year guys, who have always been perceived as the glue on the team, the locker room guys who are a necessity to help a team win a conference or national title. No, we mean the money players, the ones who are going to be the names discussed nationally and will get drafted, albeit may never really reach their potential. Their time to get out comes after Year 3, usually because they have gone through the first-year hype and summer improvement in between their freshman and sophomore seasons; then broken out in that sophomore season before enjoying the stardom that comes during a junior season filled with acolades. And, with that, the need for a fourth season is gone. "The concept of a high-level player in a program for four years is going to be a special case from now on," DePaul coach Pat Kennedy said. "Shane Battier might the last one of the special cases unless the NBA changes what it's doing." The players know this to be true. They look around and see the number of elite senior players shrinking each year. Sure, every situation is unique. A team on track to make a run for the national title might entice a senior-to-be to stay home. An injury could force a player to come back for his senior season. Players could declare for the draft as a junior, not play well in the draft camps (see: Jason Gardner) and essentially be forced to return for their senior season if he wants to be a high draft pick. But even that scenerio is a gamble. Oh, and there are even players who actually might want to graduate, although that's even changing -- at least the traditional four-year plan. Duke has altered the landscape in three-year players with an accelerated academic program and summer school work -- even around USA basketball -- that has allowed Williams and Boozer to rack up credits and be close enough to graduating in three years that it's not worth coming back for a fourth. Neither will next season, and are expected to be lottery picks in the draft come June.
Connecticut coach Jim Calhoun is one coach who is already trying to get in on this trend. Emeka Okafor, his talented freshman, came to Connecticut with six college credits and he's loading up this year. He'll get a slew more during the next two summers and Calhoun hopes he'll be able to graduate in three years. "We're investigating how to do this in three," Calhoun said. "If you do have a lot of three-year players then you do have an old team. Kids don't want to wait. They view three years as a long time. It used to be four years, but now it's down to three. Three years produces a grizzly veteran today. "If you have juniors then you have an old team," Calhoun adds. "We won it with Richard Hamilton as a junior. Jim Boeheim has been fortunate at Syracuse because he told me he has had players who were good, just not good enough to leave after three years. Generally the older teams win." But graduating in three years isn't always possible at every institution, especially large universities. N.C. State coach Herb Sendek said he doesn't see too many players being able to pull off a three-year plan of basketball and diploma. But it's at least worth a recruiting pitch. A number of them are willing to stick school out for three, but four is pushing their patience. "You get anxious when you're around for three years," said Rush, who probably would have bolted Missouri last season had he not broken his thumb late in the season. "As a junior you're polished and ready to go, but as a senior it seems you slow down a bit. Getting through the junior year means you're that much closer to your degree. If you only go a year or two it could be 10-15 years to get that degree because there are too many classes. If you never plan on finishing school then there is no reason to stay as long as three." Having players come to school prior to their freshman season is another way they're gaining credits toward graduation. Add in two more summers and a heavier load during the season and it's not out of the question. Get close enough and fewer players will stay for their senior season, regardless of where their games may be in the developmental stages. "I don't know if it's realistic at Stanford, in fact it's almost impossible to graduate in three years," Jacobsen said. "But it could be manageable to get it sooner if you left after three years. Our president told me recently that Tiger Woods wants to graduate, but he left after his sophomore year and being two years away is really tough. If he had stayed one more season then he could be close. People who leave after freshman year have basically no chance to get their degree." All of these players leaving early, or threatening to leave, means better roster management, according to UCLA coach Steve Lavin. Redshirting role players becomes more of an option to have better balance in the classes. But the players being redshirted aren't the stars, players like Rico Hines and Ray Young, who have redshirted for Lavin in consecutive seasons. But staying three years doesn't mean it's a slam dunk for elite players to get to the NBA. Arizona junior Richard Jefferson looks like he made the right call, getting quality minutes and producing for the surging New Jersey Nets. Teammate and classmate Michael Wright got picked in the second round by the Knicks and never made the opening day roster. Both were big-time names in college last season, but leaving after three years was the right move for Jefferson, clearly the wrong one for Wright. "After seeing the disaster with our guys coming out you hope they'll listen to the right people in the future," Arizona coach Lute Olson said. "Take a look at JaRon Rush and how he was supposed to be a great player and now he's nowhere to be found. Michael Wright is now playing in Poland and he could have been better off after his senior year. I'm hoping sooner or later the kids will wise up." But that would mean they would have to listen, listen to the right people who know their real draft status. And even that isn't a reason to leave if the player doesn't have the fundamental skills necessary to make the jump. But if the player is an elite player, like the ones already mentioned, then a fourth season is gravy for the coach, the program and the school. "I always thought what Mike Krzyzewski said to Carlos Boozer makes a lot of sense when he said to unpack his bags and enjoy the process and experience of going through college instead of focusing on what's next," Marquette coach Tom Crean said. "The opportunities are going to be there." But the reality is three years seems to be enough for most of these guys and the year this trend becomes the norm might be at hand. There could be a mass exodus in the spring, leaving next season's senior class devoid of a host of elite players. Andy Katz is a senior writer for ESPN.com. |
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