We figure in year two of the Bowl Championship Series formula, you've got it all down. Even if the fine points still seem a little fuzzy, we're guessing you're more sick of it than Ricky Martin's "La Vida Loca."

	Florida's Steve Spurrier could see his consecutive home win streak threatened this year.

Besides, by the time the orange-clad crowd spills out of the Georgia Dome to celebrate an SEC championship (be they from Tennessee or Florida), it'll probably be pretty clear who deserves to weather the millennium mega-hype in New Orleans.

Once again, we will not have three major conference teams with perfect records heading to the bowls.

That doesn't mean the BCS formula is a better way of settling the title than a playoff. It just means the BCS brass will again be saved from an embarrassing controversy at the last minute.

Other good bets
Streaks will die. Last year Texas ended Nebraska's pursuit of Miami's record for consecutive home wins. This year, Florida's home unbeaten streak is in jeopardy. The Vols have the goods to win in Gainesville for the first time since '71. If UT doesn't conquer the Swamp, FSU probably will.

Hawaii will win! At least one. Finally. June Jones inherits trouble in paradise, but the losers of 18 straight play nine home games, including September visits from Eastern Illinois and Boise State.

Penn State will not live up to the preseason hype. At least history says so. This is a phenomenon we've charted in our research department: Teams finishing well out of the top 10 (the Lions were 15th in the final coaches poll and 17th in AP) which are then picked in the top 5 the following year -- ALMOST ALWAYS ... FLOP. Put another way, they rarely finish the season ranked as highly as they were at the start. A few teams each year become fashionable picks for dramatic improvement, and most disappoint. More on the specifics of this syndrome in my next column.

Nebraska falls into the same category of a team expected to bounce way back after a disappointing year -- in this case the Huskers losing four of its last eight games (more in two and a half months than Tom Osborne lost in his last five years.). The difference is, however, I think Nebraska will do it. The Huskers are a good pick for the national title game. It's been an excellent summer of workouts in Lincoln.

Another bounce-back: Arizona State. The Sun Devils bring in a squadron of JUCO help and with a little luck on the injury front, should have a superb offense and much better defense. Last year's decline was a fluke -- a product of overconfidence.

Other teams on the move up: Ole Miss, which could be 6-0 when Bama comes calling in October and Cal, which has a strong defense but faces road games at Nebraska and improved BYU. A win at Provo, or at UCLA the next week could be the key to a Bowl season. Cupcake King
This is a dramatic change for 1999. Kansas State does not have the most laughable non-conference schedule among the contenders.

The Wildcats hardly face a murderer's row in Temple, UTEP, and Utah State. But the title of "Cupcake King" this season goes to Wisconsin. The Badgers' embarrassing September includes Murray State, Ball State and Cincinnati.

In hoops, that's not too bad a trio. In football, they all finished last season ranked below 110 in Jeff Sagarin's ratings. Murray State's in 1-AA, Ball State was 1-10 and Cincy 2-9. Their prospects don't look much better for '99.

Nothing personal against Wisconsin's program, but that schedule is a joke. No excuses.

Minnesota's is laughable, too: Ohio, NE Louisiana, and Illinois State. C'mon. No Big Ten team -- ever -- should avoid playing at least one opponent from another established conference.

It's demeaning to a conference that has never backed away from challenges. Iowa tackles Nebraska. Indiana gets North Carolina and Kentucky. Purdue and Michigan State play Notre Dame. The traditional "Big Three" always face a challenge or two before the conference schedule kicks in.

Sure, both Wisconsin and Minnesota will face severe tests when the conference slate starts; the Badgers open with Michigan and then visit Ohio State. But it's bad for the game to follow the lead of K-State and avoid anything remotely resembling a competitive non-conference game. Hell month
On the subject of schedules ... some teams have been left with brutal stretches of games by the random factors of computer conference scheduling.

Who do you think faces the toughest month in college football? Is it Purdue's October: at Michigan, at Ohio State, Michigan State, Penn State, at Minnesota?

Or Georgia's: LSU, at Tennessee, at Vandy, Kentucky, and Florida in Jacksonville?

For fun, check out the schedule you'd have if you combined Louisiana Tech's September, Purdue's October, and Texas A&M's November:
at Florida State
Texas A&M
at Alabama
at Michigan
at Ohio State
Michigan State
Penn State
at Minnesota
at Nebraska
at Missouri
Texas

That's six of the top nine preseason teams, and four of them on the road. I wouldn't plan on a postseason.

Bad blood
OK, so Auburn backed out of the opener with Bobby Bowden's bunch. The Tigers instead treat us to an opener with 1-AA Appalachian State. The Tigers were spared the wrath of an angry Papa Bowden.

But other battles remain, the two biggest on Sept. 25, which you can label "Bad Blood Saturday."

Which will produce more passion from teams feeling betrayed? Is it Ole Miss' visit to Tommy Tuberville's new home at Auburn? Or Colorado's clash with Rick Neuheisel's Washington?

The answer: The Rebels' ire runs a little deeper.

A future Bad Blood game to look for: Kansas State and Oklahoma. Bob Stoops not only hired his brother Mike away from Bill Snyder's staff, but two other assistants as well. There's no love between the Sooners' new boss and the Wildcats' chief. They don't play this season, though. Gameday hits the road
We'll debut the 1999 season August 28th in Happy Valley, where I first fell in love with college football as a 7th grader. It's the first time Lee, Kirk and I have done a Gameday from Penn State.

The following Saturday -- it's back to Ann Arbor for the fifth time. I never get tired of watching the Wolverines and Fighting Irish collide.

I'll keep you posted here on future road show plans. Please, no lobbying via email, voice mail, or U.S. mail!

Chris Fowler is the host of ESPN's College GameDay show.