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Sunday, October 7
Updated: October 8, 3:53 PM ET
 
Miami no longer a lock to reach the Rose Bowl

By Brad Edwards
Special to ESPN.com

In college football, October means shakeup, and the excitement has already begun.

Two contenders -- Texas and Tennessee -- saw their national title hopes hit dire straits following losses on Saturday. More teams will surely join them in the coming weeks.

The first official release of the BCS Rankings is set for Oct. 22, so here's one last look at how things stand before the rest of America starts paying attention.

Stock up: Oklahoma
The Sooners have won the BCS Game of the Week the last two Saturdays and now sit firmly entrenched as the top team in the standings. Even though they are number three in both polls, it certainly seems that OU is in good shape to defend its title IF it can run the table. That, of course, is the hard part.

Oklahoma's BCS potential is boosted by a strong remaining schedule that includes both Nebraska and the Big 12 title game (assuming an undefeated regular season) as well as an excellent chance to receive significant bonus points from its victory over Texas. The Longhorns have a good opportunity to finish 10-1 and get back fairly high into the rankings, while the champion of the Big 12 North should not be too far behind them at season's end.

Stock down: Miami
Even though they have won each game convincingly, the schedule is currently killing the Hurricanes in the BCS. Miami's four opponents to date are a combined 1-14 against Division I-A competition -- the lone win coming against Buffalo. Because the formula only considers the games that have been played, the Canes have one of the nation's weakest schedules, which also has a profound effect on their ranking in several computers

Miami Opponents
Opponent Record vs. I-A
Penn St. 0-4
Rutgers 1-4
Pittsburgh 1-3
Troy St. 0-3

Miami's schedule strength will certainly improve, starting with this week's game against Florida State. But, as long as there are at least two other major-conference unbeaten teams, it remains important for the Canes that future opponents such as FSU, Washington and Virginia Tech continue to win. Each loss by those teams to an opponent other than Miami will hurt the Hurricanes' prospects to receive bonus points on Dec. 9.

This translates to say that their chances of reaching Pasadena with one loss are not as good as those of most other contenders, and -- at this time -- it is still conceivable that an undefeated season might not be enough if none of their opponents finishes in the Top 10. The first cause for concern was losing the top spot in the AP Poll this week. Without being No. 1 in both polls, the Hurricanes are a lot more vulnerable to the possibility of being jumped.

Under the radar
The Pac-10 gained much respect with last season's success, and that has carried over into this year. Wins over teams such as Michigan, Ohio State, Alabama, Boston College and Wisconsin have vaulted the conference to the top spot within most of the BCS computers. The Pac-10 still has five unbeaten teams, while no other conference currently has more than three. UCLA is ranked first in the nation by four computers, Stanford is ranked in the top seven by six computers and Washington, Oregon and Washington State are all found in the top six of at least one ratings index. This could bode very well for the national championship hopes of any team that is able to survive the conference schedule without a blemish.

Fresno State didn't take the field on Saturday but had its worst weekend of the season by BCS standards. The Bulldogs' five non-conference opponents went 1-4, including an unexpected loss by Wisconsin to Indiana. The lone win was a big one, however, as Colorado put itself in position to challenge for the Big 12 North title with an upset over Kansas State. The Buffaloes now appear to be the only chance Fresno has to receive quality win points in the BCS formula. What was once a promising collection of non-conference foes now seems to be a predominantly mediocre group. Consequently, the chances of the Bulldogs reaching the BCS promised land are growing slimmer by the day.

If the season ended today...
The Sooners and Gators would be playing for the national title, as of now, after Florida moved up in the standings on the strength of its jump to No. 1 in both the AP poll and the Rothman computer. UCLA is also in a solid position with loads of love from the computers.

Unofficial BCS Rankings
1. Oklahoma
2. Florida
3. UCLA
4. Nebraska
5. South Carolina
6. Virginia Tech
7. Oregon
8. Washington
9. Fresno State
10. Texas

Inside the BCS Computers

Miami No. 1 Anderson-Hester 20 UCLA Billingsley 8 Oklahoma Colley 25 UCLA Massey 47 UCLA Matthews 17 UCLA Rothman 29 Florida Sagarin 25 Florida
Peter Wolfe’s ratings will debut next week.

BCS Game of the Week: Washington at UCLA
It might not receive the glamorous hype of Miami-Florida State, but this game will have a more immediate impact on the BCS Rankings. It is the first in a series of Pac-10 showdowns, and since neither of these teams plays at Oregon this season, the winner will become the frontrunner in the conference race. As explained above, that is a very enviable position to hold.

The Miami-FSU game will be more significant within the BCS world only if the Seminoles win, knocking the No. 1 team in the coaches poll off that perch. Otherwise, it will simply be noteworthy that the one fixture in BCS title game history will be absent from that stage for the first time in four years.

Brad Edwards is a college football researcher for ESPN. Inside the BCS appears weekly.







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