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Saturday, November 24
 
Turnovers plague even the NFL's best teams

By John Clayton
ESPN.com

The name of the game in 2001 is turnovers. More and more each week, NFL games are being polluted by turnovers.

Kurt Warner has thrown 13 interceptions to go along with his 17 touchdowns this season.

The reason I use the word polluted is that so many of these turnovers are more unforced errors than great defensive plays. It's affecting the quality of games -- even the good ones. Two weeks ago, the Colts battled the Dolphins in a great 27-24 game won by the Dolphins, but each team committed three turnovers.

The Rams execute the game's most exciting offense but they lead the league in give-aways with 27. Even scarier is the fact that the game's best quarterbacks -- Kurt Warner, Brett Favre and Peyton Manning -- rank among the league's worst in interception percentage. The Rams, 49ers and Dolphins rank among the league's best teams, but they are among five winning teams with negative give-away/take-away margins.

Teams' inability to keep the ball has made for closer, more exciting games. But it also explains why week in and week out it's impossible to tell which are the good teams in this league.

For example, the Ravens won the Super Bowl last season with great defense, great special teams and a quarterback (Trent Dilfer) who didn't turn over the ball. Elvis Grbac is on the verge of screwing up a great situation by throwing 13 interceptions for a team that has had nine more turnovers than it has created.

Historically, you have to go back to 1992 to find a worse year for turnovers. Currently, teams are combining for 3.85 turnovers a game, a figure that will probably increase because of cold weather over the final weeks of the season. That would put the league on pace for 955 turnovers for the year, and it's not out of the question for the NFL to have its first 1,000-turnover season since 1986.

That's scary in itself. From 1983 through 1986, turnovers were ridiculously high. In 1983, for example, 28 teams -- not the 31 that currently exist -- combined for 1,114 turnovers, including 620 interceptions. That, of course, was the beginning of a new era, with pass-happy Dan Marino and John Elway joining the league. Until they became accomplished at their jobs, interceptions came at an alarming rate.

Plus, it was a different era, the age of the Raiders' Vertical Stretch. There wasn't the overuse of four- and five-receiver sets, so quarterbacks zeroed in on their two or three receivers and sent them into longer routes. The average completion in 1983 was 12.6 yards, almost a yard more per completion than today.

More teams started copying Bill Walsh's West Coast offense at the beginning of the 1990s, and two things happened. The length of the completions dropped, but the passing offense became more efficient. Interceptions dropped below four per game in 1992 and stayed below that level. Completion percentages improved.

This season's increase in interceptions and fumbles is an illustration that the quarterbacks are experiencing growing pains. The league has witnessed an amazing quarterback transition over the past three seasons. Out went the pocket passers such as Elway, Marino and others. In came the scramblers such as Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper and others.

The presence of these good, young quarterbacks bodes well for the future, but it also has its downside. With 31 teams, you wonder if there are enough quarterbacks ready to start. Watching Thursday's Thanksgiving specials confirms the problem. Ryan Leaf has no right to be on the field at this stage despite his once-great talent. Quincy Carter won't do that much better for the Cowboys when he takes over next week.

Mike McMahon created fourth-quarter excitement for the Lions in coming back against the Packers, but to live with the excitement, the Lions will have to suffer through mistakes. It seems apparent that they are itching to replace a good, young quarterback in Charlie Batch, who may not fit into the West Coast offense but clearly has a place in the league.

Nobody understands this new era better than Herm Edwards, an Eagles defensive back during those crazy turnover days in the early 1980s. He took a couple of simple theories to the Jets. He doesn't want veteran quarterback Vinny Testaverde to turn the ball over. And on defense, he wants his front seven to hustle for fumbles and his back seven to be on alert for interceptions.

The result is a plus-22 turnover margin and a 7-3 record.

"I was playing in 1983 when the Redskins set the NFL record with a plus 43," Edwards said.

Teams' inability to keep the ball has made for closer, more exciting games. But it also explains why week in and week out it's impossible to tell which are the good teams in the league.

"They did not turn the ball over. We were pretty good back with the Eagles but we watched what the Redskins did. They got the ball to Art Monk, but they ran it with John Riggins. They hustled on defense."

Back then, critics looked at how the Redskins were put together and wondered how they dominated the league that year. It was part coaching and part being opportunistic. Joe Gibbs had a bright, offensive mind, but his discipline in minimizing the mistakes of his team won Super Bowls.

Edwards is one of the first to capture the trend of this year and capitalize on it. Win the turnover battle and win games. If opponents come into stadiums, accept their gifts.

"We have about 17 interceptions, but we probably dropped about 10 more," Edwards said. "I told the players if we would have kept maybe five of those interceptions, we'd be doing even better."

This is the year of the turnover, particularly from the quarterback position. Sure, some of the young running backs may have a tendency to fumble, but there aren't any who have glaring, major fumbling problems. So defenses are stacking the line against the run and let the quarterbacks try to win the game.

Or lose them with turnovers.

"I think a lot has to do with people throwing the ball more," Edwards said. "The games have changed. There are a lot of young quarterbacks. A factor that a lot of people aren't mentioning is that linebackers and defensive backs are probably better at catching the ball. Many were former running backs in high school or in college. One thing that has helped us is getting those turnovers, it shortens the field. It's harder to create turnovers when you are driving a short field."

Maybe the quality of the games is sloppier than even the past couple of years. But at least many of those young quarterbacks will get better. They will get through this learning phase and not make as many turnovers.

Once they do, some of the inconsistencies of the good teams will start to vanish. That isn't a bad thing now. This might be the season of giving, but NFL charities shouldn't be coming from the quarterback position during games.

John Clayton is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com.








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