Clayton 1st and 10

John Clayton

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Wednesday, October 2
Updated: October 3, 1:24 PM ET
 
First ... And 10: AFC East takes top billing

By John Clayton
ESPN.com

Editor's note: ESPN senior NFL writer John Clayton's weekly "First And 10" column takes you around the league with a look at the best game of the week followed by primers for 10 other games. Here's his look at Week 5.

First ... New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: Patriots coach Bill Belichick knew returning to the Super Bowl would be tough.

Opponents treat their games like mini-Super Bowls. Last week's 21-14 loss to the Chargers was a classic example. Chargers coach Marty Schottenheimer devised a smart defensive scheme that tried to take away Tom Brady's first read and fake or run a few blitzes to force him to pat the ball in his hands and be less accurate with his throws.

Ricky Williams
Ricky Williams is averaging 5.6 yards per carry in four games this season.
But the biggest challenge for Belichick this week is fixing his run defense. Priest Holmes of the Chiefs burned the Patriots for 180 yards two weeks ago and LaDainian Tomlinson toasted them for 217 last week. On Sunday, they face a critical AFC East game against the rival Dolphins and halfback Ricky Williams.

Unless Belichick finds ways to solve his defense problems, Williams could burn them for 200 yards and several big plays. Williams leads the NFL with 15 runs longer than 10 yards. Suddenly, the back who was traded from the Saints because he couldn't break long runs has become the league's top big-play runner.

He's averaging 5.6 yards a carry and his running has made Jay Fiedler a dangerous quarterback for play-action passing. Stopping the run is vital in this league. Teams that can't stop the run fall into a tough pattern because play-action teams can keep them off balance all season.

Let's not overreact, though. The Patriots defense is still good and they are going through a stretch in which they are playing some of the league's best running backs and best running teams. They stopped Jerome Bettis and Curtis Martin, but Holmes and Tomlinson came in healthier and more explosive.

The most noticeable problem is that the Patriots are cheating more defenders near the line of scrimmage to stop the run. A lot of times against the Chargers, they stacked eight defenders between the tackles and a missed tackle or a defender who over pursues leaves them vulnerable to long cutback runs.

The Patriots scheme puts a lot of pressure on middle linebacker Tedy Bruschi, who has to handle a key hole in the defense. If he gets caught out of position in the over pursuit, he leaves a cutback lane for a good back.

This week, Belichick may have to have an outside linebacker help out Bruschi on inside runs, but that could leave the Patriots vulnerable to outside plays and screens. Dolphins offensive coordinator Norv Turner will be following those defensive adjustments closely. He's a master of poking holes in defenses.

Of course, the Dolphins have their own problems on defense. They gave up 48 points against the Chiefs. Part of the problem was the absence of cornerback Patrick Surtain, who returns this week now that his knee has had an extra week to heal.

It will be interesting to see how Patriots offensive coordinator Charlie Weis attacks the Dolphins. He continues to order between 45 and 55 passes a week with the confidence that Brady releases the ball so quickly that he's not at risk for sacks. They rarely call running plays.

With the Jets falling off the AFC East map, this is a battle to determine the best team in the AFC East. Should be a classic.

And 10. San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos: The Chargers must have been sick watching the Broncos make so many mental mistakes in the second quarter of the Broncos' Monday night loss to the Ravens. The sickness is the realization that the Broncos won't be as dumb in this key AFC West battle. Coach Mike Shanahan will restore discipline to a team that looked like the Keystone Cops against the Ravens. This is an important three-game stretch for the 4-0 Chargers. They were the true surprise team of September and have a chance to be a true playoff contender if they can win two of three games against teams such as Denver, Kansas City and Oakland. To come out of that stretch with a 6-1 record and having two of three division home games in the second half of the season will make them a solid contender. The key for the Chargers is how well linebacker Junior Seau and safety Rodney Harrison bounce back after playing gutsy games on injuries that would sideline most players. They are such leaders and were vital in trying to slow down the Patriots offense last week. Another key is how well rookie center Jason Ball and right guard Toniu Fonoti can match up against Broncos defensive tackles Chester McGlockton and Lional Dalton. The Broncos tackles can dominate most interior blocking schemes. It will also be an interesting game for Broncos quarterback Brian Griese. He keeps his starting job by winning games, and his 3-1 record should give him some staying power. But this is an important game for the Broncos. He's thrown five interceptions this season, and if he makes mistakes in the first three quarters that cost the team drives, it's not out of the question for Shanahan to look to Steve Beuerlein for help. He almost went to Beuerlein in the opening win over the Rams.

9. Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: Suddenly, the Bears have reached a crisis stage. They are down four key starters on defense and a loss could cause an early-season collapse. It would put them on a three-game losing streak and leave them two games behind the Packers in what is a two-team race in the NFC North. This is a must win, and the Bears must make some changes to win. They rank No. 23 on offense and No. 20 on defense, and they need one of their units to get hot, and that would have to happen on offense. Face it, minus defensive linemen Ted Washington and Phillip Daniels, the Bears aren't are forceful on defense. Not a single defensive linemen has a sack, and coach Dick Jauron is thinking about going with rookie Alex Brown at defensive end. Bryan Robinson, the $4 million-a-year end on the other side, isn't playing as well because of his two broken wrists during the offseason. Where the Bears are fortunate is that the Packers are banged up on offense. With Terry Glenn bothered by migraines and injuries galore on offense, quarterback Brett Favre is trying to beat defenses with Donald Driver and Robert Ferguson and a not-completely-healthy Ahman Green. For the Bears to win, they have to make a big move on offense. They either have to go to more of a power running attack with Anthony Thomas or open things up more with the passing game.

Tommy Maddox completed 11-of-13 passes for 122 yards and one touchdown against the Browns.
8. Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints: Bill Cowher is forced to make some interesting decisions. First, he's decided to start Tommy Maddox at quarterback for Kordell Stewart, who has thrown 15 interceptions in the past seven games dating back to last year. Teams defense the Steelers too easily anymore, so something has to give. Defense stack eight guys near the line of scrimmage to take away Jerome Bettis' power running and Stewart's ability to make runs. If Stewart can't get the ball downfield, the offense is stalled. The next mission is to find out where Bettis is as a running back. He's not hitting the holes as quick, but the extra defenders near the line of scrimmage aren't making life any easier for him. The Saints are coming off a horrible loss to the Lions, and they are falling into a pattern where they're getting behind by two or three touchdowns in the first half. Slow starts kill teams, and this pattern must stop. It will be interesting to see if Jim Haslett will try more no-huddle plays because running against the Steelers defense won't be easy. Last week, the Browns elected not to go no-huddle because of the loud Steelers crowd in Heinz Field.

7. Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills: Last year, the Bills averaged 16.5 points a game. This year, they are averaging 30.5. Drew Bledsoe has meant two touchdowns a game to the Bills. For that alone, he's the most valuable player for the first four games of the season. And this may not be a great matchup for the Raiders. First of all, the Raiders don't have their best cornerback, Charles Woodson. They don't have that every down pass-rushing threat to put pressure on Bledsoe on first and second downs. The Raiders have only five sacks in three games. This might force the Raiders to try to make this a high-scoring game, which they are capable of doing with Rich Gannon. The Raiders are averaging 37.7 points a game. The Bills are on the verge of becoming an NFL Cinderella team. They've had three overtime games. They play an exciting brand of football. Players have bought into Gregg Williams as a head coach and are having fun on Sundays. With the home crowd behind them, the Bills enter this game with confidence. The Raiders come in with that championship swagger.

6. St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers: Before the season, this was one of the marquee games. The Rams 0-4 start has made this an afterthought. The 49ers have lost six in a row against the Rams, but the Rams have lost nine consecutive games dating back to the Super Bowl and the exhibition season. If the 49ers can't win this game, they might never beat the Rams. Jamie Martin takes over for Kurt Warner until December. Orlando Pace is missing at left tackle because of a calf injury. For the 49ers to win, they have to establish their offense. Their 2-1 start is mostly credited to their defense and their running attack. The Rams will have to play their best defensive game to keep this contest competitive. There is pressure on quarterback Jeff Garcia. In these games against the Rams, Garcia hasn't been able to outduel Warner. If he can't outduel Martin, fingers will be pointing at him.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons defense, which has been thin throughout because of injuries, has had a chance to get healthy during the bye week. Can they offer an ambush to the Bucs and first-year coach Jon Gruden? They could. The Bucs inability to run the ball consistently has made them a passing team. The Bucs are averaging only 77.5 yards a game on the ground, and that has to make new Falcons halfback Warrick Dunn smile. The Bucs elected not to re-sign Dunn, who is part of a running attack that is averaging 148.3 yards a game in Atlanta. Falcons defensive coordinator Wade Phillips will have to try to get Bucs quarterback Brad Johnson out of his comfort zone. Despite playing behind a struggling, battered offensive line, Johnson is completing 64.8 percent of his passes and has been sacked just seven times. The challenge for the Bucs defense is chasing quarterback Michael Vick. The strength of the Bucs defense is their speed at linebacker, but no Buc linebacker is fast enough to completely contain Vick. Their mission is try to force Vick into make turnovers.

4. New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys:The Giants open their division schedule Sunday with a visit to Texas Stadium. From the looks of things, the winner of this game can claim to be the only challenger to the Eagles, who could be set to run away with the division. Giants coach Jim Fassel is still kicking himself for allowing an end of the half interception that the Cardinals took back for a touchdown Sunday and cost him a chance to be 3-1. Overall, Fassel isn't happy with his missing running attack, which is averaging a league low 2.7 yards a carry. Is it the offensive line or the backs? Tiki Barber is explosive and has been fighting through injuries. Ron Dayne has been invisible. No one can figure what Cowboys team they will see from week to week. The Cowboys revamped their offensive line last week by moving Larry Allen from guard to right tackle, but Allen is playing on a bum ankle. The Cowboys got by last week with a decent effort by rookie cornerback Derek Ross, but Giants quarterback Kerry Collins will give him a true test this week.

3. Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers: The Panthers proved that they were indeed for real last Sunday by being a short field-goal kick from taking the Packers into overtime at Lambeau Field. The next three games give them realistic chances to win. They play the Cardinals, who are playing a little better on defense despite the lack of impact defensive linemen. They follow Sunday's game with trips to Dallas and Atlanta. Believe or not, quarterback Rodney Peete is among the league leaders in big plays and is averaging 8.28 yards per pass play, best in the NFC. No one thought Peete would be able to play this season let alone be the big-play quarterback in the NFC. The Cardinals have questions at running attack. Thomas Jones has a sore ankle and Marcel Shipp will sit out the game with a sore knee. The best matchup will be the Panthers front seven trying to go against the powerful Cardinals offensive line.

2. Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets: Herman Edwards is shaking up everything after a 1-3 start. He benched Vinny Testaverde and will see whether Chad Pennington is going to get the team out of its offensive funk. He's changing around a defense in which the six new starters from the offseason aren't working out. Is this a playoff season or a rebuilding year? Sunday's game will give the Jets the direction they are heading. The Chiefs are coming into this game with momentum. Trent Green finally had a breakout game by throwing five touchdown passes against the Dolphins. Halfback Priest Holmes has been a touchdown machine. The Jets can't stop anybody, and they need to make a stand in the Meadowlands. If they don't, it could be their last stand this season.

1. Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans: It's pretty much gone like outsiders expected for Steve Spurrier. Everyone told him that he didn't have outstanding talent at quarterback and wide receiver. Spurrier keeps juggling quarterbacks and receivers and is still coming out with inferior performances against good defenses. This week, he won't announce his starting quarterback until the eve of the game but everyone believes it will be Danny Wuerffel. Kevin Lockett draws the starting receiver assignment on the other side of Rod Gardner. Meanwhile, halfback Stephen Davis remains underutilized. He's averaging only 17 carries a game. The Titans have to be concerned about Eddie George's start. George is averaging only 2.7 yards a carry. The Titans can't shake the penalties and mistakes that are costing them games. Still, they have a relatively easy schedule. If they can win this game, win next week's home game against the Jaguars and whip the Bengals after the bye week, they could be 4-3 going into a November game against new AFC South rival Colts.

John Clayton is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com.









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