It's not that we don't buy into the adage that it takes three seasons to
legitimately evaluate a draft, but since most teams don't believe that
anymore, why should we argue?
This is a tough process, because any year when the best offensive rookie
in the league is a player no one ever hears or reads about (Arizona guard
Leonard Davis), everything is out of whack. That said, it's a dirty
job ... but someone has to do it.
So here is a glance at the best and the most dubious draft classes:
Thumbs up (starting with the best)
Buffalo Bills: Yes, we have looked at the Bills' record, so don't suggest that we
ought to be fitted for a straitjacket. Eleven of the 12 choices are still on
the active roster or injured reserve, and this group, which is starting to
produce modest results, will represent the foundation for the future. The
top three choices have combined for 14 starts, and corner Nate Clements is
going to be a "shut down" defender. Buffalo is taking its lumps now, for
sure, but the Class of '01 will contribute to improved play over the final 1½ months of this season. The Bills got quality and quantity.
Miami Dolphins: First-round cornerback Jamar Fletcher hasn't lived up to his press
clippings yet but his former Wisconsin teammate, second-rounder
Chris Chambers, looks like he is the most explosive wide receiver in this rookie
class. And the truth is, now that he is over a few injuries and some
immaturity, Fletcher is playing much better as well. Running back
Travis Minor has become a decent third-down player and fellow third-round selection
Morlon Greenwood is starting at linebacker. Sixth-round choice Brandon Winey is a guy who, with a year on the practice squad, could become a good player.
Washington Redskins: The Skins' draft wasn't very deep but, then again, Marty
Schottenheimer owned just five selections. He could have stopped after the
first two, wide receiver Rod Gardner and cornerback Fred Smoot. The physical
Gardner has turned out to be the best of the big receivers in the first
round, and Smoot, despite some attitude problems, is a pure man-to-man
defender. Fourth-round quarterback Sage Rosenfels, who hasn't played yet,
looks like a career backup.
San Diego Chargers: First-round tailback LaDainian Tomlinson probably will win the
offensive rookie of the year award and, even though he hasn't been as good
lately as he was earlier in the season, will be a workhorse for years.
Third-rounder Tay Cody has been a pleasant surprise at safety and linebacker
Carlos Polk (No. 4) looked like a good player before he went out for the
season with an injury. The key to this class will be how quickly coaches
turn the team over to quarterback Drew Brees, the second-round choice and a
savvy kid who some feel is ready to be the starter.
Pittsburgh Steelers and the New York Giants (tie): Each got tremendous choices early
in the draft. The Steelers got a pair of defensive starters in nose tackle
Casey Hampton and inside linebacker Kendrell Bell, who will win defensive
rookie of the year honors. New York added speed and toughness to the
secondary in cornerbacks Will Allen (No. 1) and also William Peterson (No.
3). They've taken some lumps, but figure to be the starting tandem for a lot
of years.
Thumbs down (starting with the worst)
Dallas Cowboys: OK, three words: Quarterback Quincy Carter. And just for the heck of it, six more words:
Actually traded up to get him. 'Nuff said, don't you think? There were a lot of quality players the Cowboys could have had at that spot.
Oakland Raiders: Nettlesome owner Al Davis overruled his scouts, even though he
spent much of the predraft evaluation sessions in a courtroom, and chose
former Florida State safety Derrick Gibson over Memphis counterpart Idrees
Bashir. The latter has started nine of 10 games for the Colts, and Gibson is
little more than a "dime" coverage and special teams guy. Second-round
quarterback Marques Tuiasosopo isn't near ready to play. The best
choice was defensive lineman Chris Cooper, taken in the sixth round.
Baltimore Ravens: It's tough to knock any draft when a team is choosing last after
winning a Super Bowl, and first-round tight end Todd Heap has
suffered though injuries, which hasn't helped. There is some
long-term promise with prospects like center Casey Rabach (No. 3) and
linebacker Edgerton Hartwell (No. 4), but what these guys really needed to
do was invest a second- or third-round choice on a tailback. And, no, that's
not second-guessing in light of the Jamal Lewis injury, because we noted it
in a draft recap a day after the lottery ended.
Denver Broncos: The team's football grand-poobah, coach Mike Shanahan, is usually
pretty good at collecting extra choices and then not doing much with them.
This year he had just six picks and the Broncos draft class has been
nondescript. First-round cornerback Willie Middlebrooks has been hurt and
second-round defensive end Paul Toviessi is on injured reserve. Denver
grabbed Nick Harris in the fourth round to supplant incumbent punter Tom Rouen; he was a preseason bust and was waived.
Green Bay Packers: Too bad the Packers brass couldn't look into the crystal ball and
see second-year veteran Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila would become a pass-rush force. Because then the team could have passed on Florida State defensive end Jamal
Reynolds in the opening round and chosen a much-needed wide receiver.
Neither Reynolds nor second-rounder Robert Ferguson, a wide receiver from
Texas A&M, has played in even one game yet. Were it not for third-rounder
Bhawoh Jue, who has taken over for injured LeRoy Butler at strong safety,
the Packers would be getting nothing from their first four picks. Tight end
David Martin, a sixth-rounder, has been a solid low choice.
Len Pasquarelli is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com.