Breaking down the championship matchupsBy Joe Theismann ESPN.com There are no surprises among the four teams left standing in the NFL playoffs. The Philadelphia Eagles and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been the NFC's two best teams. The Tennessee Titans were playing better than any team at the end of the season. And it was a foregone conclusion that the Oakland Raiders would be in the AFC championship game -- and possibly going on to the Super Bowl. The Final Four may be predictable, but the remaining outcomes are still unpredictable. Here is my take on the two conference championship games:
NFC: Tampa Bay at Philadelphia -- Sunday, 3 p.m. ET
On the other side, Tampa Bay has the NFL's No. 1 defense and an offense that is nothing spectacular, except for head coach Jon Gruden's creative play-calling and the 7,000 plays he will have prepared for the game. The Bucs receivers are big, but not fast. The running game is only decent, but not outstanding. And their offensive line is the team's Achilles' heel. While I don't take anything away from Tampa Bay's offensive prowess last week against San Francisco's defense, which wound up having safeties covering wide receivers, Tampa Bay's defense and Brad Johnson's passing efficiency will make for a close, low-scoring game. I'd be surprised if either team scores in the 20s. Under Gruden, Tampa's offense is much more diverse and efficient than it was when the Bucs lost to the Eagles the last two years in the playoffs, without scoring a touchdown. When the Bucs and Eagles met in Week 7, Gruden was still trying to figure out what he had offensively. Meanwhile, the Eagles' Donovan McNabb was 100 percent and playing like the league MVP. On Sunday, McNabb has to run the ball for the Eagles' offense to be effective. But the Bucs have dealt with his kind of mobility before. When they switched divisions this season, the Bucs' defense moved into one with Michael Vick and Aaron Brooks. Dealing with mobile quarterbacks have become a priority for the Bucs. As for this being the last NFL game at Veterans Stadium, thank God. I remember playing in Philadelphia one year, and I ran into the Redskins' mascot, the Indian, a week later with a broken arm. The Eagles' fans at the Vet had thrown him out of the stands. There is probably a bigger chance of there being hostility in the stands than there is on the field. To understand the importance of home field, look back at last week. All four home teams won. I don't care if it's the Vet, Raymond James Stadium or the USS Kennedy; everybody wants to play on their home field because it is such an advantage. Plus, the Eagles will be playing on turf, a surface that is comfortable for them. Key matchup: The Bucs' offensive line vs. the Eagles' front seven. If the Bucs have a problem on offense, it has been their offensive line's ability to block. And Brad Johnson isn't going to run away from anybody.
AFC: Tennessee at Oakland -- Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET
The responsibility of this game falls on the Titans' ability to keep pace with the Raiders, and Oakland has the most complete offense in football. The Raiders have the best quarterback (Rich Gannon), one of the top running backs (Charlie Garner) and the most efficient receiving corps that includes the threat of Jerry Porter. Oakland has to feel like it can move the ball against the Titans. In contrast to Tampa Bay's offensive line being a liability, the Raiders might have the best offensive line in football. Tennessee's challenge will be for its wide receivers to make plays against the Raiders' defensive backs. For everything he accomplished, Jets quarterback Chad Pennington really got out of whack last week. Can Steve McNair come up with the key third downs running the football as he has in the playoffs? No team is more reliant on one player more than the Titans are on McNair. If the Titans go back to the Super Bowl, it will be because of McNair. So far he's the MVP of the playoffs. This game will be difficult for Tennessee to win. So how can the Titans win? They can if the Raiders do what they did during their four-game losing streak -- fail to make plays in the passing game. If the Oakland receivers drop five passes, Tennessee will win. Key matchup: McNair vs. Oakland's defense. The more first downs McNair can convert, the longer he can keep Oakland's offense off the field. A game analyst for ESPN's Sunday Night Football, former NFL QB Joe Theismann won a Super Bowl and a league MVP award. He reviews the NFL each week for ESPN.com in Cup o' Joe. |
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Conference Championship