The late Peter Blake, mastermind of two America's Cup victories (1995, 2000), warned the challengers in 1997 not to race during the month of October. The Italian Challenger of Record group ignored the warning and orchestrated two round robins in the month.

Since the trials began on Oct. 1, half of the days have been marred by weather delays. Worse, much of the racing that does take place is in extremely poor conditions. The early spring on the Haruaki Gulf features frequent squalls, dramatic wind shifts and unreliable weather. These races are important. One boat goes home at the end of round robin two and the other eight end up being seeded for the quarterfinals. It is crucial to qualify for the top four tier because this group, in essence, is sailing a double elimination series going forward. The bottom tier races in a single elimination series.

The purpose of the trials is to select the best boat and to train that boat to be ready to defeat the defender, Team New Zealand. But these trials are doing neither. As the dramatic wind shifts take place, the races have been thrown into chaos. While the sailors search for wind, they often separate by hundreds of yards, which kills any chance of meaningful speed testing.

For its part, the race committee has been working hard to get races in. Two races are scheduled every day. But this new format is proving difficult to achieve.

In spite of all the weather problems, the intensity is picking up. The weather delays are testing the patience of everyone. There are some interesting trends developing. Here is an overview.

Alinghi Challenge (12-1)
Skipper Russell Coutts and his brain trust are very much on track. As time goes on they are getting stronger. The scary thing for the rest of the challengers is the unknown speed of their second boat, which is waiting in the wings. If it is faster than the boat they are sailing now, Alinghi likely will become the challenger.

OneWorld (11-2)
In spite of having one point deducted from each of the first two rounds, OneWorld is fast and the crew is solid. Helmsman James Spithill is proving to be the early MVP of the regatta. The Americans on the boat, two-time Olympic medalists Jonathan and Charlie McKee, have been a huge asset.

Oracle BMW Racing (7-4)
After losing four races in short order, Larry Ellison fired his afterguard and brought Chris Dickson back to run the sailing program and skipper the boat. Dickson has twice been suspended from the team over the past two years. But Ellison has great faith in Dickson's ability based on the New Zealand sailor's performance aboard Ellison's maxi yacht, Sayonara. The move was not popular with the crew because Dickson is hard to take. One highly respected sail trimmer, Stu Argo of Detroit, went home. Argo won the Cup aboard America3 in 1992 but did not see the chemistry coming together with Dickson in charge. One wonders if Dickson doesn't work out whether Paul Cayard, who is on Ellison's payroll, will be asked to return to the team? Those close to Ellison say no way. Oracle needs a little bit more speed if they hope to prevail.

Prada (10-4)
Give this team credit, it has improved and is now winning. But the Italians seem to be lucky. In a race Oct. 30, they were well behind their archrival Mascalzone Latino. Mascalzone Latino hopelessly wrapped its spinnaker a mile from the finish line and lost the race. The biggest problem for the Italians is a lack of boatspeed. Their second boat is currently in the shed undergoing major modifications. Designer Doug Peterson was fired after the first race.

Victory Challenge (6-7)
The Swedish entry shows surprising speed, a tribute to young designer Mani Frers. The all-Scandinavian crew is performing well and getting better every day. This team could prove to be a spoiler down the stretch.

GBR Challenge (6-7)
GBR's fortunes changed when young helmsman Andy Green was excused in favor of Olympian Andy Beadsworth. The team is tenacious and is in the game every race. They have a good chance of ending up in the top tier.

Stars & Stripes (5-8)
So far the New York Yacht Club entry has had a disappointing performance. The radically narrow design, USA66, seems to have stability problems. The boat is fast downwind but struggles to windward. The word from the camp is optimism since it has a second boat, USA77, that is said to be slightly faster. We will likely see USA77 in November. One has to wonder when Dennis Conner might rejoin the crew on the boat to change the team's fortune?

Mascalzone Latino (1-13)
This team suffered what they called a "cruel defeat" when the spinnaker wrapped against Prada. If they can defeat Le Defi one more time, they will most likely make the cut.

Le Defi (0-12)
Everyday the Greenpeace activists find a way to make noise about Le Defi's nuclear energy sponsor Areva. The crew is having enough trouble sailing its slow boat. Baring an unlikely rally, Le Defi will be excused at the end of round robin two. Simultaneously, no one will miss the Greenpeace crowd unless they decide to protest Team Dennis Conner's newest sponsor -- Viagra.

In 1977, Gary Jobson served as tactician to win the America's Cup for Ted Turner. ESPN's lead sailing analyst, Jobson is writing a weekly column during the Challenger Trials. E-mail him at garyjobson@cs.com or check out his Web site at jobsonsailing.com.