| | | On Friday, I predicted that if it were a Ravens-Giants Super Bowl, I would show reruns of last year's game and go home and cry. Although I still think it could be the worst action we've seen in a while -- we're talkin' about one coast and two defensive teams here, people -- I'm optimistic that big city New York will pull through for me here.
|  | | Michael McCrary, sacking Oakland's Rich Gannon, and the Ravens defense deserve to be Super Bowl favorites. |
My name's Johnny Avello. As director of a race and sports book in Las Vegas, I'm just beginning my annual two-week Super Bowl betting run. I actually grew up in New York watching the Big Blue and the Mets, while eating pasta and jelly doughnuts on weekends. But it's kind of hard to root for them and do my job. You simply can't mix personal feelings with business.
I wanted to do this when I was growing up -- literally. My mother and father were taking me to the racetrack with them since I was 5. I learned all the casino games in a gaming school in New York City and headed out to Las Vegas in 1979. I've been here ever since.
So let's talk game. When the Raiders vs. Ravens ended, we opened up with the Ravens giving one point. Both teams are pretty similar, but the Ravens deserved the favorite spot. Come on, these guys convincingly beat both Tennessee and Oakland on the road. Their defensive ends give the quarterback no time to throw the ball, and if he can ever get it off, the secondary is excellent at reading the plays. The linebackers are great at cutting off the run, and overall I might even go so far as saying that the guys from Baltimore are the best defense I've ever seen. The Giants? Forget about the 41 they put up against the Vikings. That was an aberration, though New York is a close-knit team that knows it can win this game.
So it's at 1, right? After about 20 minutes, the action was so lopsided that we went to 1½. Forty minutes later, it's still too much Ravens, so we push it to 2 and then eventually up to 2½. At one point Sunday night, we had $150,000 bet for the Ravens and $5,000 for the Giants. That 2½ might hold until the Thursday before the game, and then there figures to be some more movement.
I think the line will eventually go up to three by gametime, but -- assuming nobody is out with an injury -- it shouldn't be any more than that. However, since one out of every eight football games has a team winning by three, a line of three would be disconcerting. That's because we have to worry about "being sided." If the line is three and the Ravens win by three, all Ravens fans wagering at any number up to 2½ win and Giants fans who took at three get a push, so you'll end up paying everyone. But if it has to be three, then it's three. Because you certainly can't just jump to halves just because you are scared of the three. Jumping from 2½ to 3½ would be like sticking a dagger in your heart.
You don't want your line to move too much, because then you are opening yourself up for a middle -- where everyone who got in wins if the number falls right in the middle. This state's biggest nightmare was Super Bowl XIII in 1979. Early bettors laid 3½ with Pittsburgh and late bettors got 4½ with Dallas. So when Pittsburgh won 35-31, everyone laying 3½ with Pittsburgh and taking Dallas at 4½ won, and even players who took either team at four had their money returned.
I also remember Super Bowl XXIII with Dallas and Buffalo in 1994. A couple of sports books had Dallas laying 6½ and Buffalo taking 7½. At one point, the score was 27-13 and Buffalo was driving. Dallas won 30-13, but had Buffalo lost by seven, a couple of sports books would have been out of business.
When you are making your number, you are just looking for balanced action. You better get into the bettor's head when doing the Super Bowl, because it's not like the season. Last year, if the Rams had played the Titans in a regular season game, the line would have been four. But for the Super Bowl, everyone loved the Rams, so you put them at seven -- and that's pretty much where it stayed. I opened XXIV (49ers-Chargers) at 19, because that was what I thought it would take for someone to bet on the Chargers. Do I do that for the regular season? No way.
People always ask me, "What does it take to move the line?" Different sports books move in different ways because it depends on who's betting
what. In some cases, a $10,000 bet will move it, sometimes it's $50,000. Then again, I've also seen a line that didn't move after someone dropped
$200,000 on one side.
We'll have some fun with propositions. One of my favorites was a bet on which team would run the first offensive play from scrimmage. About five years ago, the gaming control board stipulated that we couldn't take bets on the coin toss. So I modified it to which team would run the first play. Therefore, it didn't solely rely on the toss. It was really who won the toss and what they elected to do with the ball -- barring a turnover.
For this one, I like: Who will score first -- the Giants' offense or the Ravens' defense? I'm also thinking we'll have an over-under of about 117 for Dilfer's total passing yards. Usually, it's about 250. I mean, the guy throws a slant pass for a 7-yard gain and Shannon Sharpe goes for 90 more. He's not a good quarterback, he just plays his role.
You should see this place on Super Bowl Sunday. We'll have guys in cowboy hats and boots opening up briefcases with $100,000 in cash. I'd say 84 percent of our crowd will be in casual clothes, 10 percent will be dressed in jerseys, 5 percent in Mardi Gras clothes and a slim 1 percent decked out in a suit.
If you stop by, I'll be the guy in the glasses dripping sweat on the counter.
Johnny Avello is director of the sports and race book at Bally's and Paris Las Vegas.
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