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National Notebook
Thursday, September 7
The band marches on as we reach the midseason mark



While the band marches onto the field at the intermission of the 1999 college football season, there is plenty of time to ponder what will happen in the second half.

Eric Crouch
Eric Crouch quarterbacks a Nebraska team capable of winning the first national title of the post-Osborne era.

It promises to be quite interesting, with a battle to the finish for the national championship, and no clear-cut Heisman Trophy winner. If the first half taught us anything, surprises should be expected.

Here is a look ahead to the final six weeks of the regular season, with a few predictions.

Who will cry foul about the BCS?
Virginia Tech is a good possibility. The Hokies are ranked fourth in the nation, the highest in school history. Saturday's impressive victory over Syracuse should give them the respect they deserve, and the likelihood of an undefeated season is even stronger. But much like Kansas State last year, Virginia Tech will suffer from a poor non-conference schedule.

Coach Frank Beamer would have been better off not saying anything last week when asked about the schedule, lauding James Madison, one of Virginia Tech's victories. "I don't think they've lost since we played them," Beamer said.

Doesn't matter. James Madison is a Division I-AA school. Alabama-Birmingham recently made the move to I-A. Even rival Virginia doesn't look so good after losing to Duke.

When the first Bowl Championship Series rankings come out on Oct. 25, look for Virginia Tech to be hurt by strength of schedule. Even undefeated, the Hokies will need help to get to New Orleans.

Kansas State could again be the answer to this question. The Wildcats, with Temple and UTEP on the schedule, might even find themselves trailing some one-loss teams.

Who will emerge as the nation's dominant team?
Probably no one, which will make for an exciting finish to the season. No team stands out as unbeatable, not even top-ranked Florida State and second-ranked Penn State. The Seminoles struggled at home against Wake Forest, while Penn State had a dominant defensive performance against Ohio State, with offensive inconsistencies. Neither team, however, has a clear path to New Orleans. Florida State plays at Florida on Nov. 20 and Penn State visits Michigan State the same day.

Will Lou Holtz win a game this year?
Probably, but don't be surprised if he doesn't. Holtz is a magician, but he can't make his bad players disappear. Not yet. It won't get any easier in the future, playing in the SEC East and having to face Florida, Tennessee and Georgia every year. The Gamecocks are going on two years since they last won an SEC game. "This is uncharted territory for me," said Holtz, known for turning around programs at Arkansas, Minnesota and Notre Dame. "I've never been here."

Get used to it, Lou. At least he'll have a chance when Vanderbilt visits on Saturday.

Who will walk off with the Heisman?
The race is now wide open. Even if Florida State's Peter Warrick returns and continues to dazzle, he blew it with his ill-advised shopping spree. Not so much because he was arrested, but because he has been unable to impress voters the past two weeks while waving a towel on the sideline. And plenty of other players showed off their skills on Saturday.

Purdue's Drew Brees threw for more than 500 yards and five touchdowns against Michigan State; Wisconsin's Ron Dayne had 167 yards in limited action against Indiana. Alabama's Shaun Alexander had three touchdowns and 214 yards against Mississippi. And Joe Hamilton drove Georgia Tech to another late score and a victory.

Hamilton is the biggest beneficiary of Warrick's mistake. He is on pace to break the NCAA's season passing efficiency record, and he had a fabulous game in defeat at Florida State, throwing just three incompletions and putting up 387 yards. Hamilton rallied the Yellow Jackets -- who have the nation's No. 1 offense -- to victory last week against North Carolina, and they have a chance to win the rest of their games. All of that can lead to a successful Heisman campaign, especially with a strong game against rival Georgia on Thanksgiving weekend.

Can Ron Dayne catch Ricky Williams?
Not if his coach won't let him. Wisconsin coach Barry Alvarez was in a tough spot on Saturday, with a huge victory over Indiana assured. Does he let Dayne play and be accused of piling on? Or does he take Dayne out, denying the running back a chance to pad his stats? Alvarez chose the latter.

Williams could have got back on pace to break Williams' record with a few more carries. Heading into the game, he needed to average 173 yards in the last five games. He got 167, but getting that many the rest of the way will be difficult. This week's game against Michigan State is key, because without a strong performance, Dayne's chances drop drastically.

Who is this year's Tulane?
Marshall has already won this award. The Thundering Herd are climbing the rankings, but doing it in a conference (MAC) that will not get them enough respect. Unless Marshall finishes among the top six, which is virtually impossible, the Thundering Herd cannot get to a big bowl game.

What's wrong with Tennessee?
Nothing, really. The Vols simply lost at Florida, where most teams struggle. If they have learned anything this decade, it is to put defeats to the Gators behind them. They did that with a big victory at home over Georgia last week. Now they must prepare for Shaun Alexander and Alabama. If the Vols get past the Crimson Tide, they are a couple of upsets away from being able to defend their title.

Can the Pac-10 save face?
Only if the conference champion (does anybody want the title?) can win the Rose Bowl. The Pac-10 has been a major disappointment, with no team ranked among the Top 25 last week, a first since 1985, when just 20 teams were ranked. There have been several embarrassing losses, including Arizona's defeat to Penn State when the Wildcats were considered a national title contender. How about New Mexico State over Arizona State or San Jose State over Stanford?

"It's obviously a down kind of year, I guess," said UCLA coach Bob Toledo, whose Bruins were a game away from playing for the national title last but slipped to under .500 with a shutout loss to Cal. "I don't know how to explain it, other than to say it's just one of those years -- crazy."

Who is on the hot seat?
Coming off a 4-7 season when many picked his team to win the SEC West, LSU coach Gerry DiNardo was bound to feel the heat this season. It won't let up, not with a 2-4 start, including an embarrassing home loss to Auburn and the one-point defeat on the road to Georgia, when DiNardo elected to go for two points instead of kicking the tying extra point. Another defeat at Kentucky didn't help.

West Virginia's Don Nehlen is hearing complaints, as is North Carolina's Carl Torbush. For Bob Davie, it will always be part of the job at Notre Dame. Saturday's comeback win over USC helps, but missing out on another big bowl is a no-no.

Will two 70-something-year-olds coach in the national title game?
Florida State's Bobby Bowden (who turns 70 on Nov. 8) and Penn State's Joe Paterno (who turns 73 in December) have teams capable of meeting for the national championship. They are ranked 1-2 in both polls at the moment, and should they win out, it is difficult to envision any other team passing them.

But it won't be easy.

Penn State has been inconsistent offensively, unable to run the ball when necessary.

Florida State has been inconsistent defensively, unable to stop strong passing attacks.

If they make it to New Orleans, however, it sure would be a fitting way to end the decade and begin a new one.

If not FSU or Penn State, then who?
Look out for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers have overcome some early-season problems to roll over three consecutive Big 12 opponents. Much like in their heyday under Tom Osborne, second-year coach Frank Solich is going to a punishing ground game. Quarterback Eric Crouch throws well enough to keep defenses honest. Don't count out the Big Red.

Bob Harig, who covers college football for the St. Petersburg Times, writes a weekly college football column for ESPN.com.


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