Upsets! We Got Upsets!
Giants and Killers fit into clans--and knowing them could predict the next Harvard-Style shocker.
IT SEEMS LIKE YESTERDAY that George Mason popped out of our primitive Cinderella-spotting spreadsheets, but The Mag's
Giant Killers project has been predicting tourney upsets for a decade. That bodes well for your bracket when the tournament
starts March 17. Last year our model correctly pegged Harvard and Stephen F. Austin as lethal underdogs. Now, after analyzing
tourney games dating to '07, we found that Giants and Killers cluster into families that share statistical profiles. And upsets are
more likely to follow from certain clans clashing than others. Baylor, for example, plays more like North Carolina than Virginia--
and that makes the Bears more likely to fall to Old Dominion than New Mexico State. Consider this our anniversary gift to you.
1
MEET THE FAMILIES
Above all else, Giants looking to ward off Killers need to win the battle of the ball. But there are different ways to build extra possessions, and they involve trade-offs that can leave top seeds vulnerable to underdogs taking risks of their own. Gambling Giants, for instance, pressure the perimeter, forcing oodles of turnovers, but they're prone to upsets by Slow Killers, who operate at a crawl and focus on limiting opponents' looks. Think Harvard upending Cincinnati last year.
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2
BOARD TO DEATH
When strength meets strength, it makes sense that a Giant should prevail. In 15 matchups between the Power Giants family of top seeds and High-Possession Killers since 2007, the Killer has prevailed just once. Why? The Killers' offensive rebounding edge disappears; Giants overwhelmingly have the superior OR rate. Even in the lone upset, San Diego over Connecticut in 2008, the underdog got worked on the offensive boards. In a brawl under the basket, trust the big(ger) boys.
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