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| Monday, January 15 | |||||
| Season in review: Arizona Diamondbacks Diamond Mind Baseball | |||||
Diamond Mind is a
highly-realistic strategy-oriented computer baseball game. Founder Tom Tippett and a team
of top baseball analysts -- Gary Gillette, Stuart Shea and Zack Scott --
are presenting detailed reviews of each team's performance in 2000 (with
projected and actual statistics for all key players) along with their
thoughts about the outlook for the 2001 season.
This article takes a look at how the Arizona Diamondbacks performed in the
2000 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the
approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms
and statistics, please see the overview page at the Diamond Mind web site.
Capsule summaryProjected Actual Runs for 915 792 Runs allowed 789 754 Run Margin 126 38 Wins 92 85 Pythagorean wins 93 85 Placement 1st 3rdEverything went right for the Diamondbacks in 1999. They got a career year from Jay Bell, a healthy and productive season from Matt Williams, breakthrough performances by Omar Daal and Erubiel Durazo, and a Cy Young performance from Randy Johnson. The result was the league's best offense, second best pitching staff, 100 wins and their first NL West title. Although Arizona was returning essentially the same cast of characters, it wasn't reasonable to expect the same outstanding performances from everyone two years in a row, so their projected win total was 8 less than the previous year. But those 92 wins still looked to be good enough to win a second straight title in a division where none of the other teams figured to be much better than .500. It was interesting to see manager Buck Showalter make some significant changes to the lineup after leading the league in scoring the year before. Perhaps he understood that 1999 was unusual in the number of career years he got from his players and that they would be hard pressed to match those results. Trying to fill a gaping hole at shortstop and find a way to get both Travis Lee and Durazo into the lineup more often, he moved Tony Womack from right field to shortstop and Lee from first to right, opening up the first base job for Durazo. In the end, these moves failed and offensive production declined more drastically than expected. Even though the pitching was a little better than expected, thanks in part to another big year from Randy Johnson, the decline in scoring dropped the team to third place, and Showalter was fired after the season. Key position players Despite outstanding efforts by Luis Gonzalez and Steve Finley, Arizona's offense dropped from the top scoring team in the NL one year ago to 10th in 2000. The main causes of the slide were injuries to Matt Williams and Erubiel Durazo, a return to mediocrity by Jay Bell after a monster 1999, Tony Womack's inability to get on base and use his speed, and the black hole that was right field (where 12 different players were used). Damian Miller, c, age 30 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 294 84 19 1 9 36 45 3 23 2 71 0 1 .286 .341 .449 .790 45 Prorated Ari 330 94 21 1 10 40 51 3 26 2 80 0 1 .286 .341 .449 .790 50 Actual Ari 324 89 24 0 10 43 44 1 36 4 74 2 2 .275 .347 .441 .788 50As a second round expansion draft pick of Arizona in 1998, Miller joined Kelly Stinnett to form an unusual platoon of two right-handed hitting catchers. Until now, the duo has essentially split equal time. This year, for the first time, Miller caught significantly more games than Stinnett. The role change can be attributed to Miller's three years of consistent (albeit average) offensive production, a superior arm (40% caught stealing), and a first half power surge (15 doubles, 8 homeruns, .521 slugging). His power disappeared after the break (2 homeruns, .358 slugging), but Stinnett was worse (.195 slugging), and Miller will enter the 2001 season in an unfamiliar situation -- number one catcher. The D-Backs decided they can only afford to keep one member of the platoon, so Stinnett was not tendered a contract and has since signed with Cincinnati. Kelly Stinnett, c, age 30 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 261 66 13 0 12 36 36 5 30 2 71 0 1 .253 .340 .441 .781 40 Prorated Ari 232 59 12 0 11 32 32 4 27 2 63 0 1 .253 .340 .441 .781 35 Actual Ari 240 52 7 0 8 22 33 6 19 4 56 0 1 .217 .291 .346 .636 24 Stinnett's steadily declining offensive numbers (.791/.728/.636 OPS in 1998-2000) as a Diamondback and his unimpressive arm resulted in a demotion to the second slot of the platoon behind Damian Miller. Given Colangelo's money problems and the fact that Stinnett made $700,000 more than Miller in 2000 while being less effective, it made sense that he was not tendered a contract. In 2001, he will battle Jason LaRue and Matt Walbeck for playing time in Cincinnati. Rod Barajas, c, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 70 18 4 0 2 9 11 1 3 1 10 0 0 .257 .293 .400 .693 8 Prorated Ari 12 3 1 0 0 2 2 0 1 0 2 0 0 .257 .293 .400 .693 1 Actual Ari 13 3 0 0 1 1 3 0 0 0 4 0 0 .231 .231 .462 .692 1Barajas saw little time behind the plate at the major league level and had trouble jumping up one level in the minors. From 1999 to 2000, his OPS dropped from .842 at El Paso (AA) to .633 at Tuscon (AAA). The 1999 Texas League's best defensive catcher (Baseball America) will have to make a more successful jump to the majors or at least live up to his defensive billing in order to seize the opportunity to backup Miller in 2001. Erubiel Durazo, 1b, age 26 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 526 171 20 0 36 102 102 3 78 5 108 3 2 .325 .410 .568 .979 129 Prorated Ari 200 65 8 0 14 39 39 1 30 2 41 1 1 .325 .410 .568 .979 49 Actual Ari 196 52 11 0 8 35 33 1 34 2 43 1 0 .265 .373 .444 .817 35In 1999, amid a Travis Lee slump, this Mexican League All-Star exploded onto the scene and earned at least a platoon starting role with Greg Colbrunn coming out of spring training last year. But Durazo's 2000 season was as forgettable as his 1999 stint was memorable. He played with a wrist injury that landed him on the DL three times. He underwent arthroscopic surgery in early June to repair torn cartilage in his right wrist but later reinjured the wrist and had season ending surgery in August. Only days after his season was cut short, Durazo sustained minor injuries in a three-car accident. Durazo is expecting to be ready for 2001 and hopes his luck will change for the better. So far there hasn't been a change in his luck considering Arizona signed Mark Grace to play first base in 2001, bringing uncertainty to Durazo's role. Greg Colbrunn, 1b, age 30 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 69 21 4 0 2 9 10 1 5 0 13 1 1 .304 .360 .449 .809 11 Prorated Ari 354 108 21 0 10 46 51 5 26 0 67 5 5 .304 .360 .449 .809 57 Actual Ari 329 103 22 1 15 48 57 10 43 2 45 0 1 .313 .405 .523 .928 69Heading into spring training, Colbrunn seemed destined to continue his role of valuable pinch-hitter and occasional starter. But he began the year in a platoon with Durazo and ended it as the everyday first baseman when Durazo suffered chronic wrist problems all season. His 116 games were the most he played since 1996, and he made the most of them. Colbrunn set career highs in on-base percentage (.405) and slugging (.523) as one of the few positives in a disappointing offense. His success is linked to a newfound patience at the plate. He walked at a much improved rate after displaying little plate discipline early in his career. Despite his improvements, Colbrunn may once again find himself in a reduced role in 2001 with the offseason signing of Mark Grace. Jay Bell, 2b, age 34 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 561 154 29 3 28 104 91 5 80 2 124 4 4 .275 .367 .487 .853 103 Prorated Ari 556 153 29 3 28 103 90 5 79 2 123 4 4 .275 .367 .487 .853 102 Actual Ari 565 151 30 6 18 87 68 3 70 0 88 7 3 .267 .348 .437 .786 90After his career year in 1999, we expected Bell's numbers to come back closer to his norms, but they actually dropped all the way down to his career averages. In one year he lost 20 homers and went from leading the league in home runs by a middle infielder to league average offensive production. While his range is declining with age, he cut his errors by 14 from a year ago (22 down to 8). Bell has two years and about $14 million remaining on the large contract he signed before the 1998 season. Craig Counsell, 2b/3b/ss, age 29 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 65 16 3 0 1 9 7 1 8 1 8 0 0 .246 .338 .338 .676 8 Prorated Ari 153 38 7 0 2 21 17 2 19 2 19 0 0 .246 .338 .338 .676 19 Actual Ari 152 48 8 1 2 23 11 2 20 0 18 3 3 .316 .400 .421 .821 26After losing jobs with Florida and L.A. in 1999, Counsell played a lot more than expected as a replacement for the often injured Matt Williams at third. He proved to be a valuable utility infielder, playing solid defense at second and third and reaching base 40 percent of the time. Matt Williams, 3b, age 34 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 382 110 20 1 20 59 73 2 30 5 66 3 1 .288 .341 .503 .843 63 Prorated Ari 364 105 19 1 19 56 69 2 29 5 63 3 1 .288 .341 .503 .843 60 Actual Ari 371 102 18 2 12 43 47 3 20 1 51 1 2 .275 .315 .431 .746 47Williams was coming off an unusually healthy season in which he hit the most homers (35) since his strike-shortened run at Maris' record in 1994. But he began 2000 on the DL after a metal plate was inserted in his broken right foot. Williams missed the first 43 games of the season then struggled with a disabling strained right quadriceps and was bothered by a plantar fasciatis in his left foot. The result of all these injuries was Williams' worst power output in 12 seasons. Arizona hopes the more Williams-esque numbers of September (.315, 6 HR, 20 RBI) are an indication that he is healthy and on track for a better performance in 2001. Danny Klassen, 3b/ss, age 24 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 68 16 3 0 2 10 8 1 5 0 15 1 1 .235 .293 .368 .661 7 Prorated Ari 79 19 3 0 2 12 9 1 6 0 17 1 1 .235 .293 .368 .661 8 Actual Ari 76 18 3 0 2 13 8 1 8 0 24 1 1 .237 .318 .355 .673 9Klassen showed some pop for a middle infielder while playing in the Texas League but has yet to do much in 59 games with the D-Backs over the past three years. There appeared to be some hope for Klassen when Tony Batista was traded in 1999, but Andy Fox and Hanley Frias were given a shot instead. His opportunity diminished even more when Tony Womack was moved to short last year, and Klassen can expect to be used only to fill in for the highly-paid infield of Williams, Womack, and Bell in 2001. Lenny Harris, 3b/rf, age 35 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 152 41 8 0 2 16 16 1 9 1 11 2 2 .270 .313 .362 .675 16 Prorated Ari 84 23 4 0 1 9 9 1 5 1 6 1 1 .270 .313 .362 .675 9 Actual Ari 85 16 1 1 1 9 13 0 3 1 5 5 0 .188 .209 .259 .468 5 Prorated NYN 146 39 8 0 2 15 15 1 9 1 11 2 2 .270 .313 .362 .675 15 Actual NYN 138 42 6 3 3 22 13 0 17 1 17 8 1 .304 .381 .457 .837 25 Prorated Tot 230 62 12 0 3 24 24 2 14 2 17 3 3 .270 .313 .362 .675 24 Actual Tot 223 58 7 4 4 31 26 0 20 2 22 13 1 .260 .317 .381 .698 28Although his total production fell in line with our projection, Harris' contribution to Arizona was minimal. Harris was one of the many replacements for Matt Williams who missed the first 43 games of the season. His offensive numbers were worse than any of the other guys given a shot at third, so it was no surprise when he was traded in early June to the Mets for pitcher Bill Pulsipher. The surprise came when Harris completely turned his season around with the Mets by getting on base often and showing improved extra base power. His reward was more playing time and his first World Series appearance. Andy Fox, 3b/ss, age 29 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 197 53 8 1 4 29 21 6 24 3 42 5 2 .269 .364 .381 .745 30 Prorated Ari 78 21 3 0 2 11 8 2 9 1 17 2 1 .269 .364 .381 .745 12 Actual Ari 86 18 4 0 1 10 10 0 4 1 16 2 1 .209 .244 .291 .535 6 Prorated Flo 160 43 6 1 3 24 17 5 19 2 34 4 2 .269 .364 .381 .745 24 Actual Flo 164 40 4 2 3 19 10 3 18 3 37 8 3 .244 .330 .348 .677 20 Prorated Tot 238 64 10 1 5 35 25 7 29 4 51 6 2 .269 .364 .381 .745 36 Actual Tot 250 58 8 2 4 29 20 3 22 4 53 10 4 .232 .302 .328 .630 26Fox was almost as bad as Lenny Harris in his attempt to fill the gaping hole left by the injured Matt Williams through the first 7-plus weeks of the season. In his defense, Fox missed the first two weeks of the season with a broken left hand which may have affected his performance. Like Harris, the D-Backs gave up on Fox and traded him in early June to Florida for right fielder Danny Bautista. And like Harris, Fox improved his numbers with his new team but still put forth a below average performance. Tony Womack, ss, age 30 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 626 182 25 6 7 99 50 2 52 1 85 60 10 .291 .345 .383 .728 93 Prorated Ari 596 173 24 6 7 94 48 2 50 1 81 57 10 .291 .345 .383 .728 88 Actual Ari 617 167 21 14 7 95 57 5 30 0 74 45 11 .271 .307 .384 .692 77No one will argue that Womack can fly on the base paths, but he's one of those players who brings to mind the cliche that you can't steal first base. Showalter moved Womack from right field to short in the belief that having Womack, Durazo, and Lee in the lineup would improve the offense. This move mistakenly assumed that keeping a guy in your lineup with a career on-base percentage of .322 and no power is good for your offense. (A better move would have been not trading the powerful bat of Tony Batista to Toronto in 1999, but what's done is done.) Womack dropped 22 walks from a year ago, resulting in his lowest OBP since becoming an everyday player in 1997. Not coincidentally, his stolen base total was also at an all-time low since becoming a regular. From a defensive standpoint, Showalter's decision seemed puzzling because Womack never showed good range as a second baseman with Pittsburgh, yet he was now being moved to a more challenging position. In fact, Tony's best position may be in the outfield where he can make better use of his speed. Hanley Frias, ss/2b/3b, age 26 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 66 16 2 0 0 10 6 0 8 0 10 3 1 .242 .324 .273 .597 7 Prorated Ari 114 28 3 0 0 17 10 0 14 0 17 5 2 .242 .324 .273 .597 11 Actual Ari 112 23 5 0 2 18 6 0 17 0 18 2 2 .205 .310 .304 .614 11Frias saw significant time as the starting shortstop after Tony Batista was traded in 1999. He filled in adequately by playing steady defense and taking a lot of walks. In 2000, he walked less often and still had no power. He's a versatile player who remained an asset on defense, but he won't hold even a utility job much longer if doesn't hit more in the future. Luis Gonzalez, lf, age 32 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 568 178 36 4 24 98 91 7 63 5 63 8 5 .313 .386 .518 .903 115 Prorated Ari 638 200 40 4 27 110 102 8 71 6 71 9 6 .313 .386 .518 .903 129 Actual Ari 618 192 47 2 31 106 114 12 78 6 85 2 4 .311 .392 .544 .935 135Gonzalez cannot be blamed for Arizona's decline in offensive production. After a career year in 1999, he essentially matched his production in 2000. Actually, this may have been his career year as he established career highs in homers, RBI, doubles, and walks to name a few. The D-Backs recently picked up his option for 2003, and you can bet Gonzalez doesn't miss his Astrodome days. Steve Finley, cf, age 35 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 577 155 32 7 27 99 90 3 56 3 92 8 3 .269 .334 .489 .823 97 Prorated Ari 560 150 31 7 26 96 87 3 54 3 89 8 3 .269 .334 .489 .823 94 Actual Ari 539 151 27 5 35 100 96 8 65 7 87 12 6 .280 .361 .544 .904 108Finley is another one of the few players who was not responsible for the dropoff in scoring. The oldest everyday center fielder in the NL got another year older but still managed to improve on his good 1999 numbers, recording a new career high in home runs. Defensively, Finley was inexplicably awarded the Gold Glove this year. Our analysis has never shown him to have better than average range and it is only declining with age. It will be interesting to see if Finley can maintain his offensive production in 2001. Danny Bautista, rf/cf/lf, age 28 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Flo 72 18 3 0 2 10 9 0 3 0 11 1 0 .250 .280 .375 .655 7 Prorated Flo 90 23 4 0 3 13 11 0 4 0 14 1 0 .250 .280 .375 .655 9 Actual Flo 89 17 4 0 4 9 12 0 5 0 20 1 0 .191 .234 .371 .605 8 Prorated Ari 282 71 12 0 8 39 35 0 12 0 43 4 0 .250 .280 .375 .655 28 Actual Ari 262 83 16 7 7 45 47 3 20 4 30 5 2 .317 .366 .511 .877 47 Prorated Tot 372 93 16 0 10 52 47 0 16 0 57 5 0 .250 .280 .375 .655 37 Actual Tot 351 100 20 7 11 54 59 3 25 4 50 6 2 .285 .333 .476 .809 54When the platoon of Travis Lee and Bernard Gilkey failed early in the season, Arizona acquired Bautista from Florida for Andy Fox in early June. When the D-Backs packaged Lee and others in a trade to acquire pitching help from Philly, Bautista was handed the everyday right field job. He excelled with Arizona, posting his best offensive numbers to date. Bautista may finally be coming into his own at age 28. Then again, he might revert back to his career norms if he's given even more playing time in the future. Arizona seems hesitant to hand him the starting job, having recently signed Reggie Sanders, presumably as the starter in right. If Sanders is unable to improve from his awful 2000 season, Bautista will be next in line. Travis Lee, rf/1b, age 25 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 387 102 15 1 15 59 56 1 58 4 72 10 1 .264 .360 .424 .784 62 Prorated Ari 216 57 8 1 8 33 31 1 32 2 40 6 1 .264 .360 .424 .784 35 Actual Ari 224 52 13 0 8 34 40 0 25 1 46 5 1 .232 .308 .397 .705 28 Prorated Phi 193 51 7 0 7 29 28 0 29 2 36 5 0 .264 .360 .424 .784 31 Actual Phi 180 43 11 1 1 19 14 2 40 0 33 3 0 .239 .381 .328 .709 26 Prorated Tot 410 108 16 1 16 62 59 1 61 4 76 11 1 .264 .360 .424 .784 65 Actual Tot 404 95 24 1 9 53 54 2 65 1 79 8 1 .235 .342 .366 .709 54In 1996, 21-year-old Travis Lee signed a record $10 million bonus with Arizona. Since then, Lee has not lived up to the expectations that come with such a large price tag. Lee struggled to hit for average last year, and his power was well below the norm for a right fielder. When Arizona had the opportunity to acquire Curt Schilling, they sent Lee packing for Philly in July. Philadelphia manager Terry Francona moved Lee back to first, where he has very good range. Unfortunately for Lee and the Phillies, he hit like a utility infielder the rest of the way. Bernard Gilkey, rf, age 33 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 209 54 12 0 6 30 31 2 28 1 43 3 2 .258 .347 .402 .749 30 Prorated Ari 70 18 4 0 2 10 10 1 9 0 14 1 1 .258 .347 .402 .749 10 Actual Ari 73 8 1 0 2 6 6 0 7 2 16 0 0 .110 .185 .205 .391 2 Prorated Bos 89 23 5 0 3 13 13 1 12 0 18 1 1 .258 .347 .402 .749 13 Actual Bos 91 21 5 1 1 11 9 3 10 0 12 0 0 .231 .327 .341 .668 10 Prorated Tot 159 41 9 0 5 23 24 2 21 1 33 2 2 .258 .347 .402 .749 23 Actual Tot 164 29 6 1 3 17 15 3 17 2 28 0 0 .177 .265 .280 .545 11Gilkey slugged .500 in a part-time role in 1999, showing signs of returning to his 1996 form (.317, 30 HR, 117 RBI for the Mets), and entered the 2000 season as the right-handed member of the RF platoon with Lee. But it took only 81 plate appearances (including a 1 for 47 stretch) before the plug was pulled on the platoon and Gilkey was released. He finished the season with Boston but did not prove to be valuable there either. He was recently signed by St. Louis and will try to earn a spot on their bench in 2001. Jason Conti, rf, age 25 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 68 17 2 1 1 12 6 1 6 0 11 2 1 .250 .320 .353 .673 8 Prorated Ari 90 22 3 1 1 16 8 1 8 0 15 3 1 .250 .320 .353 .673 10 Actual Ari 91 21 4 3 1 11 15 1 7 2 30 3 0 .231 .293 .374 .667 10This former system Player of the Year got an opportunity when right field became a black hole for the big club. In limited time he showed his speed and pop (3 for 3 on steals, 3 triples in only 91 atbats) and displayed a good arm in right. With the signings of Reggie Sanders and Midre Cummings, Conti may not see much if any action at the major league level in 2001. David Dellucci, rf, age 26 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 93 28 5 2 2 15 13 1 9 0 21 1 1 .301 .369 .462 .831 16 Prorated Ari 49 15 3 1 1 8 7 1 5 0 11 1 1 .301 .369 .462 .831 8 Actual Ari 50 15 3 0 0 2 2 0 4 0 9 0 2 .300 .352 .360 .712 6Dellucci's league-leading 12 triples in 1998, solid glove work, and gaudy .394 average (only 109 atbats) in 1999 had us wondering why this young outfielder couldn't find a more prominent role with a big league club. Unfortunately his 1999 season was cut short due to a left wrist injury, and Dellucci was later diagnosed with a degenerative bone condition called Kienbock's disease. In July of 1999, he had surgery to shorten a bone in his left forearm. In 2000, he struggled in AAA and was not called up until mid-August. Dellucci may see more time in the minors in 2001 due to the signings of Reggie Sanders and Midre Cummings. Key pitchers The oldest pitching staff in the majors started the season with its 1999 core intact. A year ago they finished second in the league in ERA and third in runs allowed. While the 2000 staff didn't fare as well, pitching was not this team's weakness. After two solid seasons, Omar Daal had a horrible year, and the team failed to adequately fill the hole left by the injured Todd Stottlemyre. The result was a team ERA that was half a run higher than a year earlier and a slight drop to 5th in runs allowed. But for the second straight year management made changes to fix pitching problems. This time they didn't trade away guys with big upsides like Tony Batista, Brad Penny, and Vladimir Nunez. Instead they sent a package that included the disappointing Daal and Travis Lee to Philly for proven starter Curt Schilling. While the trade did not result in a spot in the playoffs, it solidifies their rotation for 2001. Randy Johnson, starter, age 36 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Ari 3.24 32 32 17 8 0 234 198 27 74 304 .230 .661 Prorated Ari 3.24 33 33 18 8 0 244 206 28 77 317 .230 .661 Actual Ari 2.64 35 35 19 7 0 249 202 23 76 347 .224 .643Johnson's first-half dominance (14-2, 1.80) almost single-handedly kept the Diamondbacks in first place through the All-Star break. He was brilliant in the second-half of 1999 as well, and those two halves added up to a 22-4 record with a 1.85 ERA. Although he showed signs of being human in the second half of 2000, his season was still good enough to earn his second straight NL Cy Young award. It's possible that his high pitch totals are starting to wear on the 36-year-old. Since joining the D-Backs, Johnson led the league in average number of pitches per start with 120 in 1999 and finished second in 2000 with 115. The breaking point may have come on July 30th when Johnson threw 146 pitches against Florida in a seven-inning no-decision. He was 4-4 with a 3.72 ERA after that. Todd Stottlemyre, starter, age 35 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Ari 4.52 32 32 11 11 0 191 197 23 77 163 .268 .765 Prorated Ari 4.52 16 16 5 5 0 94 97 11 38 80 .268 .765 Actual Ari 4.91 18 18 9 6 0 95 98 18 36 76 .268 .799It's been a tough couple of years for Stottlemyre, who came back from ACL surgery in 1999, had his season cut short because of elbow problems in 2000, and is dealing with his father's (Yankee pitching coach Mel Sr.) cancer treatments. The bottom line for the D-Backs is that in two years they've paid about $16 million for 196.2 innings, a 15-9 record, and a 4.48 ERA. Those numbers may not be bad for one season, but that kind of money calls for at least 400 productive innings in two years. He entered the season knowing he had problems with his right elbow, but he tried to battle through the tendinitis. The result was his highest ERA since his rookie season (1988). Much of that can be linked to his trouble with the long ball, allowing homers at the highest rate of his career. In 2001, Stottlemyre hopes to fully recover from offseason surgery that repositioned the ulnar nerve in his right elbow. Omar Daal, starter, age 28 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Ari 3.91 32 32 15 9 0 212 203 22 78 164 .254 .714 Prorated Ari 3.91 16 16 8 5 0 109 104 11 40 84 .254 .714 Actual Ari 7.22 20 16 2 10 0 96 127 17 42 45 .315 .904 Prorated Phi 3.91 11 11 5 3 0 74 71 8 27 58 .254 .714 Actual Phi 4.69 12 12 2 9 0 71 81 9 30 51 .290 .810 Prorated Tot 3.91 28 28 13 8 0 183 176 19 67 142 .254 .714 Actual Tot 6.14 32 28 4 19 0 167 208 26 72 96 .305 .866You know you had a bad season when the best thing that can be said is, "At least he didn't lose 20 games." In his first two seasons with Arizona, Daal was one of the best lefties in the league, allowing opponent batting averages of .245 and .236 in 1998 and 1999, respectively. No one could predict the freefall he experienced in 2000. The results were awful across the board including a jump in opponents batting average to .315 (with Arizona). The Diamondbacks got fed up and included Daal in a deal with Philly to bring a proven veteran starter (Schilling) to their rotation. Daal pitched slightly better in Philadelphia but his record suffered the same fate thanks to a lack of run support from the league's worst offense. Armando Reynoso, starter, age 34 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Ari 5.22 32 32 10 12 0 186 214 23 76 102 .291 .809 Prorated Ari 5.22 28 28 9 11 0 163 188 20 67 89 .291 .809 Actual Ari 5.27 31 30 11 12 0 171 179 22 52 89 .273 .772Reynoso was better than his ERA indicates. While he averaged less than six innings per start, he still managed to have more quality starts than Curt Schilling. His underlying numbers are more consistent with an ERA in the 4.25 range. So why was his real ERA a full run higher? Reynoso got pounded with runners in scoring position, allowing batters to hit .310 and slug .535. Maybe he couldn't get the big out this season or maybe he was just unlucky. There is no historical trend that implies he has trouble in these situations so I wouldn't be surprised to see Reynoso's ERA bounce back in 2001. Brian Anderson, starter, age 28 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Ari 5.08 27 27 9 9 0 165 188 29 34 95 .287 .795 Prorated Ari 5.08 34 34 11 11 0 205 235 36 42 119 .287 .795 Actual Ari 4.05 33 32 11 7 0 213 226 38 39 104 .275 .789Anderson was projected to be Arizona's 5th starter but ended up being their next best after Randy Johnson. He and his left-handed teammate finished in the top 10 in quality starts on a list that also includes guys named Brown, Glavine, and Maddux. His success lies with his control. Anderson's 39 walks were the second fewest in the NL and his walks per 9 innings were second only to Greg Maddux. His achilles heel is the long ball. Anderson's 38 long flies were second in the majors only to Jose Lima's record-chasing 48 with Houston. If he can cut down the homerun totals, Anderson can contribute more in 2001 as the 3rd or 4th starter. Curt Schilling, starter, age 33 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Phi 3.64 26 26 13 8 0 190 175 23 51 183 .245 .703 Prorated Phi 3.64 16 16 8 5 0 116 106 14 31 111 .245 .703 Actual Phi 3.91 16 16 6 6 0 113 110 17 32 96 .253 .737 Prorated Ari 3.64 13 13 6 4 0 95 87 11 25 91 .245 .703 Actual Ari 3.69 13 13 5 6 0 98 94 10 13 72 .257 .679 Prorated Tot 3.64 29 29 14 9 0 210 193 25 56 202 .245 .703 Actual Tot 3.81 29 29 11 12 0 210 204 27 45 168 .255 .711When Schilling was acquired on July 26th, the Diamondbacks were in a virtual tie for first place (56-45) with the Giants. From that point the team went 29-32 and finished in third place, 12 games behind San Fran. How could a team with two proven aces in their starting rotation play under .500? The answer has very little to do with Curt Schilling. As a D-Back, he pitched as well as you would expect for a guy coming off shoulder surgery. He beat the mid-May return as projected by the Phillies, but he may have come back too soon. It looks like it took him 8 starts for his shoulder to be back to normal. In his first 8 starts he was 1-4 with a 6.34 ERA. In his final 21 starts, he improved to 10-8 with a 3.02 ERA. Despite the late start and weak shoulder, he still managed to lead the league in complete games for the third time in his career. If the shoulder is back to full strength, the combination of Schilling and the Big Unit could give Arizona the best one-two punch in 2001. Geraldo Guzman, starter, age 27 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual Ari 5.37 13 10 5 4 0 60 66 8 22 52 .286 .776Arizona signed Guzman out of the Dominican Republic prior to the 2000 season so we had no basis for a projection. He made six excellent starts in AAA before getting a mid-season callup to help fill the void left by the injured Todd Stottlemyre. His first two major league starts were brilliant (2-0, .56 ERA), earning him a spot in the rotation. Guzman's success was short lived as his next six starts lasted less than 5 innings per start, compiling an 8.89 ERA in that time. He finished the season in the bullpen and as a spot starter. I expect Guzman to make more minor league starts in 2001, but he may get a callup if there are injuries to the Arizona rotation. Mike Morgan, reliever/starter, age 40 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Ari 6.21 34 4 4 6 0 83 101 14 28 45 .306 .884 Prorated Ari 6.21 42 5 5 7 0 101 124 17 34 55 .306 .884 Actual Ari 4.87 60 4 5 5 5 102 123 10 40 56 .311 .814Morgan's 20th season with his record 12th different team may have been his most interesting. Arizona allowed him to try every pitching role -- closer, setup man, long reliever, and starter. He succeeded in the first two months of the season as fill-in closer for the injured Matt Mantei and as setup man when Byun-Yung Kim became the fill-in closer. In that time Morgan was 1-0 with a 2.65 ERA, 5 for 6 in save opportunities, and had 4 holds. The rest of the season was spent mostly as a middle reliever and spot starter, but the results were disappointing (4-5, 5.99 ERA). I'm guessing the D-Backs will use Morgan in a similar fill-in role in his 21st season. Vicente Padilla, middle reliever, age 22 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Ari 5.29 19 0 1 1 0 17 21 2 6 10 .309 .854 Prorated Ari 5.29 36 0 2 2 0 32 40 4 11 19 .309 .854 Actual Ari 2.31 27 0 2 1 0 35 32 0 10 30 .242 .582 Prorated Phi 5.29 37 0 2 2 0 33 41 4 12 19 .309 .854 Actual Phi 5.34 28 0 2 6 2 30 40 3 18 21 .328 .921 Prorated Tot 5.29 73 0 4 4 0 65 80 8 23 38 .309 .854 Actual Tot 3.72 55 0 4 7 2 65 72 3 28 51 .283 .747If nothing else, Padilla's outstanding 35 innings for Arizona upped his trade value to help bring Schilling over from Philly. As a D-Back he did not allow a homerun and only 5 of the 32 hits he allowed went for extra bases. The Phillies welcomed the effective 22-year-old as a throw-in to the trade, but it didn't take much time for Padilla to fit in with his last place teammates. Opponents showed no brotherly love and slugged 220 points higher against Padilla with his new team. Dan Plesac, lefty specialist, age 38 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Ari 4.42 53 0 3 2 0 55 58 8 20 65 .270 .780 Prorated Ari 4.42 40 0 2 2 0 42 44 6 15 49 .270 .780 Actual Ari 3.15 62 0 5 1 0 40 34 4 26 45 .228 .670Plesac entered his free agent year with Arizona thinking it would be his last. His success resulted in a change of plans, and he recently signed a two year deal with Toronto. Righties had more trouble against the lefty specialist, hitting a mere .194 with only 2 extra base hits. Lefties may have fared slightly better against Plesac, but we can assume only the best hitting lefties were allowed to face him. In 2001, he returns to the team that traded him to Arizona. He will be 40 when the contract expires. Russ Springer, middle reliever, age 31 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Ari 3.22 70 0 5 2 2 73 63 7 36 75 .232 .688 Prorated Ari 3.22 63 0 4 2 2 65 56 6 32 67 .232 .688 Actual Ari 5.08 52 0 2 4 0 62 63 11 34 59 .261 .818The Diamondbacks signed Springer to be the right-handed setup man to Matt Mantei. He was coming off his best season with Atlanta the year before, so Arizona had high hopes for an improved bullpen. Springer got off to a rocky start and never really recovered. In Atlanta, he allowed the third fewest percentage of inherited runners to score (14%), but a year later he fell to the 10th worst (41%). It's hard to be a successful late inning reliever when you frequently allow homeruns. Springer allowed round-trippers at his highest rate in five years. As he enters 2001 in the last year of a two-year deal (club option for 2002), Springer hopes to return to his 1999 form. Greg Swindell, middle reliever, age 35 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Ari 3.91 70 0 4 3 1 74 73 10 26 56 .259 .755 Prorated Ari 3.91 71 0 4 3 1 74 74 10 26 57 .259 .755 Actual Ari 3.20 64 0 2 6 1 76 71 7 20 64 .247 .673Since becoming a full-time reliever in 1997, Swindell has been one of the best bullpen lefties around. For the second straight year with Arizona, Swindell dominated left-handed hitters. He was even better this year, holding them to a .159 average and only 4 extra base hits in 107 atbats. Swindell had a tougher time with the fair share of righties he faced. He was also effective when brought in with men on base, finishing 6th in the league in fewest inherited runners allowed to score (15%). With the departure of Dan Plesac, Swindell will be relied on more heavily against lefties in 2001. Byung-Hyun Kim, middle reliever/closer, age 21 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Ari 2.95 40 0 4 2 0 55 39 5 35 70 .200 .649 Prorated Ari 2.95 53 0 5 3 0 73 52 7 47 93 .200 .649 Actual Ari 4.46 61 1 6 6 14 71 52 9 46 111 .200 .683Kim's versatility was tested in 2000. Early in the season, he filled in as closer for the injured Mantei. He even made his first major league start (a forgettable experience), but he mostly remained in his long relief role. Kim's sidearm delivery makes him virtually unhittable against righties (.170 AVG), but he must improve his control to be an effective late-inning reliever. He issued free passes at an astounding rate of almost 6 walks per 9 innings. He did allow the fourth fewest inherited runners to score, so he performed well in crucial situations. If Kim decreases his walk rate, he can expect to be brought into more crucial situations in 2001. Matt Mantei, closer, age 26 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Ari 3.07 70 0 5 5 36 70 56 6 45 97 .218 .688 Prorated Ari 3.07 44 0 3 3 23 45 36 4 29 62 .218 .688 Actual Ari 4.57 47 0 1 1 17 45 31 4 35 53 .193 .660Mantei spent time on the DL in April and May with arm problems. When he wasn't on the DL, he walked just about everyone in sight, and his ERA was 9.72 at the end of June. But from July 1st to the end of the season, Mantei's control was a little better, and he had a 1.57 ERA and converted 15 of 16 save opportunities. Although he's a flyball pitcher, he keeps the ball in the park because batters struggle to get good wood on his high heat. If he improves his control, Mantei can be a dominant closer for years to come. Outlook The Diamondbacks were old to begin with, and the moves they've made in the past six months have made them even older. Going into 2001, the average age of their projected starting lineup and rotation is 34. It's risky to depend on older players to remain healthy for an entire season. Will Johnson and Schilling be at their peak, or will they be worn down by age and their high workloads? Will Todd Stottlemyre have his first healthy season in three years? Will Matt Williams be at full strength? The answers to these questions will largely determine Arizona's success. Mark Grace and Reggie Sanders were the significant signings of the offseason. If Sanders can return to his 1999 form he becomes a steal at $1.5 million and stabilizes the right field situation. Grace improves their defense at first but creates a logjam at that position if Durazo is healthy. If Sanders and Grace play to their capabilities, and Womack gets on base at a respectable rate, they should score more runs next year, assuming players like Finley and Gonzalez don't suddenly get old. They didn't lose any key players to free agency, so there's enough veteran talent here to give new manager Bob Brenly reason to believe they can make a run at the division title if everything goes right. But it's a tough division, and if age begins to catch up with this team, they could finish as low as fourth. Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond Mind, Inc. All rights reserved. Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights reserved. | Diamond Mind reports | ||||