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| Tuesday, January 16 | |||||
| Season in review: Atlanta Braves Diamond Mind Baseball | |||||
Tom Tippett is the founder of Diamond Mind, developer of a
highly-realistic strategy-oriented computer baseball game. Tom and a team
of top baseball analysts -- Gary Gillette, Stuart Shea and Zack Scott --
are presenting detailed reviews of each team's performance in 2000 (with
projected and actual statistics for all key players) along with their
thoughts about the outlook for the 2001 season.
This article takes a look at how the Atlanta Braves performed in the
2000 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the
approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms
and statistics, please see the overview page at the Diamond Mind web site.
Capsule summaryProjected Actual Runs for 916 810 Runs allowed 703 714 Run Margin 213 96 Wins 101 95 Pythagorean wins 102 91 Placement 1st 1stGeorge Bush (the elder) was President the last time the Braves failed to win their division. The 95 wins they amassed in 2000 was their lowest total since 1991 (if you extrapolate the 1994-95 seasons to 162 games). Atlanta has averaged 36 games over .500 in the past ten years. And in those ten seasons, only six other franchises have produced even one season better than the Braves' composite .615 winning percentage -- Yankees and Indians twice each, and Montreal, Houston, Arizona, and San Francisco once. Unfortunately for Braves fans, their regular season dominance has translated into only one World Series victory. With nine shots at it and either four or eight teams making the playoffs, a normal haul would have been 2-3 championships. In 1991, the Twins beat them in a memorable World Series. The next year, they lost to the Blue Jays in six. The Phillies beat them in the 1993 NLCS. Atlanta finally won it all in 1995, defeating a very good Cleveland team that year. They were in control of the 1996 series before the Yankees rallied to take it in six. Then they went two years without even reaching the World Series, dropping the NLCS to the upstart Florida Marlins in 1997 and to the Padres in 1998. They made it back to the series in 1999 but lost to the Yankees again. Finally, the Cardinals took them out in the first round of the 2000 playoffs. Going into the season, I thought this might be one of their best teams ever. They had loads of pitching, even after John Smoltz was lost for the year, and it seemed as if they had finally assembled a batting order that was among the most potent in the league. But the offense never got going and the Braves were quite fortunate to win 95 games and eke out a one-game victory over the Mets in the NL East. Once again, a very weak bench was a significant part of the story. Key position players The Braves had every reason to believe their NL scoring rank would be significantly better than their 7th place finish in 1999. They improved the top of the order when they traded for Quilvio Veras and Reggie Sanders, and they had to figure that the returns of Andres Galarraga and Javy Lopez would help them cash in those extra baserunners. In fact, it appeared this lineup could easily be among the top three offenses in the league. But Sanders was a bust, Veras missed half the season, a few regulars (Lopez, Galarraga, Brian Jordan) were a little below their normal rates of production, and the bench was awful. Rafael Furcal and Andruw Jones were better than expected, but nobody stepped with with a big-time breakout season that made up for these other problems. The result was an offense that scored 810 runs, good for 6th in the NL. Javy Lopez, c, age 29 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 487 144 29 2 28 71 94 5 41 4 83 2 3 .296 .354 .536 .890 88 Prorated Atl 475 141 28 2 27 69 92 5 40 4 81 2 3 .296 .354 .536 .890 85 Actual Atl 481 138 21 1 24 60 89 4 35 3 80 0 0 .287 .337 .484 .822 73One of the big reasons for Braves fans to be excited about the 2000 was the return of Lopez to the lineup after he missed the second half of 1999 with a knee injury. His power production was down a little, but since his rookie year in 1994, he has produced 22-24 homers per 480 atbats in every season but one. That makes his career high of 34 homers in 1998 look more and more like an anomaly. Still, he remains one of the better hitting catchers in baseball. Eddie Perez, c, age 32 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 89 24 5 0 3 10 11 1 7 1 13 0 0 .270 .327 .427 .753 12 Prorated Atl 20 5 1 0 1 2 2 0 2 0 3 0 0 .270 .327 .427 .753 3 Actual Atl 22 4 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 .182 .182 .227 .409 1 Atlanta's longtime backup and personal catcher for Greg Maddux was sidelined for the year in early May after surgery to his throwing shoulder. He was missed, as the Braves were unable to find another backup catcher to provide even the moderate level of offense that they could expect from a healthy Perez. But his health is a legitimate concern. In December, 1999, he had surgery on his knee and his other shoulder. Even with the advances in modern medicine, one has to wonder whether Perez will make it all the way back after three operations in the past 13 months. Fernando Lunar, c, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Actual Atl 54 10 1 0 0 5 5 3 3 1 15 0 2 .185 .267 .204 .470 2 Actual Bal 16 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 4 0 0 .125 .176 .125 .301 0 Actual Tot 70 12 1 0 0 5 6 4 3 1 19 0 2 .171 .247 .186 .432 3Lunar wasn't even on the radar screen before the season but was promoted to the backup role when Perez went down for the year. He didn't hit a lick and was traded to Baltimore. Paul Bako, c, age 28 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Hou 67 17 4 0 1 6 7 0 7 1 15 0 0 .254 .320 .358 .678 8 Prorated Hou 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .254 .320 .358 .678 0 Actual Hou 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 Prorated Flo 166 42 10 0 2 15 17 0 17 2 37 0 0 .254 .320 .358 .678 20 Actual Flo 161 39 6 1 0 10 14 1 22 7 48 0 0 .242 .335 .292 .627 16 Prorated Atl 56 14 3 0 1 5 6 0 6 1 13 0 0 .254 .320 .358 .678 7 Actual Atl 58 11 4 0 2 8 6 0 5 3 15 0 0 .190 .254 .362 .616 5 Prorated Tot 224 57 13 0 3 20 23 0 23 3 50 0 0 .254 .320 .358 .678 27 Actual Tot 221 50 10 1 2 18 20 1 27 10 64 0 0 .226 .312 .308 .620 21Bako began the season as the Astros third-string catcher and wound up doing a lot of traveling (one of seven players to appear with three or more teams last year). Florida put him on waivers when he didn't hit, preferring to go with prospect Ramon Castro, and Atlanta picked him up on waivers because the inexperienced Lunar was totally ineffective at the plate. This was Bako's worst season as a hitter, and if he can bounce back to his 1999 level (.256 with a good walk rate and doubles power), that plus his strong arm may keep him in the game as a backup for a few more years. Andres Galarraga, 1b, age 39 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 469 138 22 2 32 87 99 17 52 6 116 6 4 .294 .382 .554 .936 101 Prorated Atl 474 140 22 2 32 88 100 17 53 6 117 6 4 .294 .382 .554 .936 102 Actual Atl 494 149 25 1 28 67 100 17 36 5 126 3 5 .302 .369 .526 .895 91One of the feel-good stories of the year was Galarraga's return from a year off while he was treated for cancer. I had doubts about whether he could maintain his skills -- it's hard enough for a player in his late-30s to stay at a high level, but to do so after chemotherapy and a year off is remarkable. He had 20 homers at the break and only 8 thereafter, leading some to speculate that he was wearing down in the second half. After the season, he became a free agent and signed a one-year deal with Texas. Wally Joyner, 1b, age 38 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 122 36 7 1 3 16 20 1 18 2 16 0 0 .295 .387 .443 .830 22 Prorated Atl 223 66 13 2 5 29 37 2 33 4 29 0 0 .295 .387 .443 .830 40 Actual Atl 224 63 12 0 5 24 32 1 31 3 31 0 0 .281 .365 .402 .767 36Atlanta cornered the market on old first basemen last year, but it didn't hurt them. Joyner matched his career on-base average and came up a little short in the power department, but he did bounce back nicely from a horrible 1999 season. He's a free agent now. Quilvio Veras, 2b, age 29 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 554 158 29 3 9 100 54 4 83 1 87 29 13 .285 .380 .397 .778 90 Prorated Atl 312 89 16 2 5 56 30 2 47 1 49 16 7 .285 .380 .397 .778 51 Actual Atl 298 92 15 0 5 56 37 5 51 0 50 25 12 .309 .413 .409 .823 54Veras' ability to get on base was a big reason why the Braves were projected to win 100 games. Their 1999 lineup had real problems at the top of the order, and the trade that sent Ryan Klesko and Brett Boone to San Diego for Veras and Reggie Sanders figured to solve that problem in a hurry. Veras was a terrific leadoff hitter but was lost for the season after tearing a knee ligament and undergoing surgery in mid-July. This was a major blow to the team's chances in the second half and the postseason. Keith Lockhart, 2b, age 35 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 67 17 3 0 1 9 8 0 7 0 8 0 0 .254 .320 .343 .663 8 Prorated Atl 280 71 13 0 4 38 33 0 29 0 33 0 0 .254 .320 .343 .663 32 Actual Atl 275 73 12 3 2 32 32 0 29 7 31 4 1 .265 .331 .353 .684 32Lockhart stepped into the void created by Veras's injury and gave the team exactly what they had a right to expect given his age and past performance. Chipper Jones, 3b, age 28 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 578 178 35 2 35 115 109 1 109 9 92 18 3 .308 .415 .557 .972 139 Prorated Atl 571 176 35 2 35 114 108 1 108 9 91 18 3 .308 .415 .557 .972 137 Actual Atl 579 180 38 1 36 118 111 2 95 10 64 14 7 .311 .404 .566 .970 136Chipper wasn't quite able to replicate his MVP season from the year before, but he remained one of the top players in the league and was rewarded for several years of consistently excellent play with a big contract extension that should keep in Atlanta for many years to come. Drafted as a shortstop, Jones has average range at third but made 23 errors last year (that's about four more than the average 3B in the same amount of playing time), and there was some talk that Jones might be moved to the outfield to make room for prospect Wes Helms (.288 with 20 homers at AAA, but very few walks) at third. That now seems unlikely, as the Braves have been unable to unload Brian Jordan's salary and probably won't move anyone to first now that they have signed Rico Brogna as a free agent. Walt Weiss, ss, age 36 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 412 103 20 4 3 62 40 3 64 1 67 7 2 .250 .352 .340 .692 56 Prorated Atl 190 47 9 2 1 29 18 1 29 0 31 3 1 .250 .352 .340 .692 26 Actual Atl 192 50 6 2 0 29 18 3 26 1 32 1 1 .260 .353 .313 .665 24Last spring, manager Bobby Cox said Weiss was his starter but he would try to find opportunities to get youngster Rafael Furcal into the lineup a couple of days a week. Even though Weiss continued to get on base at a respectable clip, his lack of power became more acute and his defense declined significantly. As a result of his decline and Furcal's surprising ability to make the leap all the way from A ball, Weiss played only sparingly (and much less effectively) in the second half. He retired after the season. Rafael Furcal, ss, age 19 (or 21?) AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 186 48 7 2 0 32 10 2 16 0 27 22 6 .258 .324 .317 .641 21 Prorated Atl 492 127 19 5 0 85 26 5 42 0 71 58 16 .258 .324 .317 .641 57 Actual Atl 455 134 20 4 4 87 37 3 73 0 80 40 14 .295 .394 .382 .776 79After much was made of Furcal's surprising maturity for a 19-year-old and the fact that he'd be the first player born in the 1980s to play in the big leagues, it was reported (but never confirmed) that Furcal might actually be two years older than that. Either way, it was a very impressive debut for a young player who had never played above A ball before. His strike zone awareness is very unusual for such a young player. He should add power as he develops, and his defense should improve with experience, but he'll be a valuable player for many years to come even if he merely maintains his current level. Reggie Sanders, lf, age 32 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 593 166 28 7 27 108 86 8 74 2 142 30 12 .280 .367 .487 .854 108 Prorated Atl 330 92 16 4 15 60 48 4 41 1 79 17 7 .280 .367 .487 .854 60 Actual Atl 340 79 23 1 11 43 37 2 32 2 78 21 4 .232 .302 .403 .705 42What a disappointment. Atlanta scored 106 fewer runs than projected, and Sanders accounts for a big chunk of that deficit. Hopes were high after Sanders reached base 38% of the time, hit 26 homers and stole 36 bases with San Diego the year before. But he got off to an awful start (.179 with minimal power through the break) and struggled with ankle and hamstring injuries that landed him on the disabled list for a total of five weeks. Lost in his season totals is the fact that he really got it going in the second half. Had he played that well for the full season, he would have had one of the two best seasons of his career. But if his strong finish turns out to be an omen for 2001, the Braves won't benefit. Sanders became a free agent and signed with Arizona. Bobby Bonilla, lf, age 37 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 65 16 3 0 2 8 10 0 9 1 10 0 0 .246 .333 .385 .718 8 Prorated Atl 241 59 11 0 7 30 37 0 33 4 37 0 0 .246 .333 .385 .718 31 Actual Atl 239 61 13 3 5 23 28 1 37 2 51 0 0 .255 .356 .397 .754 36Bobby Cox is often referred to as one the of the better managers of our time. But some of his personnel decisions have left me wondering what he was thinking, and this was one of them. Bonilla is a terrible outfielder, but Cox gave him 63 starts (plus one at third) anyway. He was ok as a hitter, but his power was well below the league average and much less than you need from an outfielder in today's game. In Cox's defense, he couldn't have known that Reggie Sanders would have such a terrible, injury-riddled season, but I still wonder why he would set aside a precious roster spot for a one-dimensional player like Bonilla. B.J. Surhoff, lf, age 35 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Bal 607 173 34 1 25 90 96 2 47 5 74 4 2 .285 .334 .468 .802 94 Prorated Bal 405 116 23 1 17 60 64 1 31 3 49 3 1 .285 .334 .468 .802 63 Actual Bal 411 120 27 0 13 56 57 2 29 3 46 7 2 .292 .341 .453 .793 64 Prorated Atl 131 37 7 0 5 19 21 0 10 1 16 1 0 .285 .334 .468 .802 20 Actual Atl 128 37 9 2 1 13 11 1 12 0 12 3 0 .289 .352 .414 .766 19 Prorated Tot 536 153 30 1 22 79 85 2 41 4 65 4 2 .285 .334 .468 .802 83 Actual Tot 539 157 36 2 14 69 68 3 41 3 58 10 2 .291 .344 .443 .787 83Desperate for a solution to their left field problem, Atlanta dealt for Surhoff in one of last year's better trade deadline deals. Atlanta needs to go all out to win another World Series or two before Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz get too old. Surhoff is not a superstar -- his offensive production was only at the league average last year -- but he's a good hitter, a very good fielder, and a solid professional. Andruw Jones, cf, age 23 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 572 161 33 6 30 98 91 6 66 7 111 24 8 .281 .361 .517 .878 108 Prorated Atl 644 181 37 7 34 110 103 7 74 8 125 27 9 .281 .361 .517 .878 121 Actual Atl 656 199 36 6 36 122 104 9 59 0 100 21 6 .303 .366 .541 .907 132Jones has been around long enough that it's easy to forget that he's still only 23 years old. Each of his last four seasons has been better than the one before, and if he continues to improve at the current rate, he'll be incredible in his prime and his career numbers will be among the best ever. Bill James gives him a 29% chance for 500 career homers, a 12% chance for 600 homers, and a 22% chance for 3000 hits. Andruw is also among the best defensive CFs in the game, even though our analysis suggests that he wasn't quite as good in 2000 as in the previous two years, when he was far and away the best. He has always played very shallow, enabling him to make a lot of plays on short line drives that fall in front of most CFs. Through 1999, he also showed an amazing ability to chase down the long drives in the gaps and to deep center field. Our analysis shows that more of those deep balls dropped for extra base hits in 2000, but even so, he remained among the best at his position. Brian Jordan, rf, age 33 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 570 165 30 4 22 97 100 9 50 1 75 13 6 .289 .353 .472 .825 95 Prorated Atl 482 140 25 3 19 82 85 8 42 1 63 11 5 .289 .353 .472 .825 80 Actual Atl 489 129 26 0 17 71 77 5 38 1 80 10 2 .264 .320 .421 .742 66Jordan's disappointing season was one of the reasons why the Braves didn't meet expectations on offense. Early in the year, he spent two weeks on the disabled list with a sore rib-cage muscle and played with the same injury for several more weeks. A partially torn rotator cuff plagued him all year and led to speculation that he would need off-season surgery. And he was forced to alter his stance to keep his weight off a banged-up knee for a while. Jordan deserves praise for refusing to leave the lineup despite all of these ailments. His numbers might have improved had he been given time off to recover, but the Braves didn't have any other options for most of the year. George Lombard, rf, age 24 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 66 15 3 1 2 8 7 1 8 1 23 5 1 .227 .320 .394 .714 9 Prorated Atl 36 8 2 1 1 4 4 1 4 1 13 3 1 .227 .320 .394 .714 5 Actual Atl 39 4 0 0 0 8 2 1 1 0 14 4 0 .103 .146 .103 .249 1Once a hot prospect, Lombard had a respectable AAA season (.365 on-base percentage with moderate power) but did nothing in two stints with the big club -- 2-for-21 in July/August and 2-for-18 in September. Had Lombard realized the potential he showed in 1998, when he reached base 41% of the time and slugged .543 at Double-A, Cox might have been able to give Jordan some rest and keep Bonilla out of the lineup. Key pitchers It's amazing, when you think about it, that a team could lose a pitcher like John Smoltz for the year (Tommy John surgery) and still be favored to lead the league in staff ERA. The league's best four-deep rotation became the league's best three-deep rotation, but even with so-so veterans like John Burkett and Terry Mulholland filling out the starting five, the Braves led the league in fewest runs allowed for the ninth consecutive year. Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine bounced back from subpar 1999 seasons to combine for 40 wins, helping to offset the loss of Smoltz and a disappointing campaign from Kevin Millwood. The bullpen, a major weakness for this club a few years ago, has become an asset, finishing fourth in the league in relief ERA despite losing Kevin McGlinchey and Rudy Seanez for long stretches. Bruce Chen, Kerry Ligtenberg, John Rocker and (especially) Mike Remlinger carried most of the load, regularly coming to the rescue of the starters at the tail end of the rotation. Greg Maddux, starter, age 34 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Atl 3.63 32 32 15 9 0 221 226 16 38 155 .268 .678 Prorated Atl 3.63 36 36 17 10 0 249 255 18 43 175 .268 .678 Actual Atl 3.00 35 35 19 9 0 249 225 19 42 190 .238 .614Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson have grabbed most of the headlines the past two seasons, but let's not forget about Maddux. When his ERA ballooned to 3.57 in 1999, it was still a run below the league average, and he still went 19-9. And that was the first time since 1991 that his ERA had a three on the front end. In fact, the high-water mark in that span was 2.72 (in 1996) and each of the other six seasons were below 2.40. His 1999 season was so out of character -- enemy hitters batted .294 and his strikeout rate dropped by more than 20% -- that I have to believe that he was pitching hurt. I recall reading about a wrist injury that cost him a start in late August, but it wasn't made out to be anything series. Maybe it was more serious than they let on, or maybe there was another problem that nobody talked about. It didn't take long for Maddux to show that he was back in good form last year. He ended May with a 7-1 record and an ERA in the low twos, struggled a little through the summer months, then finished strong (5-1, 2.03) when the Braves were battling the Mets for the division lead and pushing for home-field advantage in the playoffs. Tom Glavine, starter, age 34 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Atl 3.97 32 32 13 10 0 211 219 18 72 133 .271 .717 Prorated Atl 3.97 35 35 14 11 0 234 242 20 80 147 .271 .717 Actual Atl 3.40 35 35 21 9 0 241 222 24 65 152 .244 .672Like Maddux, Glavine struggled in 1999 but picked it up a notch when the Braves needed it most. With Smoltz out for the season and Millwood struggling, Glavine responded with his fifth 20-win season, a total that is matched only by Roger Clemens among active pitchers and that leaves the other aces of our day -- including Maddux 2, Cone 2, Johnson 1, Brown 1, Martinez 1, Schilling 0 -- in the dust. Kevin Millwood, starter, age 25 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Atl 3.23 32 32 15 7 0 203 175 21 62 177 .232 .662 Prorated Atl 3.23 35 35 16 8 0 221 190 23 67 192 .232 .662 Actual Atl 4.66 36 35 10 13 0 213 213 26 62 168 .258 .731Coming off a superb 1999 season (18-7, 2.68) in which he was arguably the second- or third-best pitcher in the league, it seemed as if Millwood was ready to take over the role of staff ace. Roughly ten years younger than Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz, Millwood presumably still had his best years in front of him. That's probably true, but 2000 wasn't one of them. His strikeouts were down, and a lot of those extra batted balls turned into hits. His stats are more consistent with an ERA in the 3.80 range, but even if his real ERA had been that low, it's a far cry from what Atlanta rooters were looking for. Terry Mulholland, reliever, age 37 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Atl 4.51 32 32 11 11 0 196 214 21 57 106 .281 .761 Prorated Atl 4.51 27 27 9 9 0 165 181 18 48 89 .281 .761 Actual Atl 5.11 54 20 9 9 1 157 198 24 41 78 .308 .825The Smoltz injury opened up a spot in the rotation for the left-handed Mulholland, who has been more effective as a reliever than as a starter in recent years. That was true again last year, and Mulholland was moved back into the bullpen midway through the season after giving up a whopping 165 hits and 20 homers in 122 innings as a starter. In 34 relief appearances, he gave up less than a hit per inning, kept the ball in the yard, and reduced his ERA to 3.37. His future would appear to be in the bullpen even though he's allowed lefties to hit over .290 in each of the past two seasons. Mulholland became a free agent after the season and will be with Pittsburgh in 2001. Terry is still next to impossible to run on -- one runner actually succeeded this year, but three other brave souls were cut down. Since 1995, opposing runners have dared to challenge him only 24 times in 1649 opportunities -- an average pitcher would have seen 101 attempts in this span -- and 18 of them have failed. That's an average of one SB allowed per year. It doesn't get any better than that. Bruce Chen, reliever, age 23 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Atl 4.61 27 27 8 8 0 160 155 28 73 166 .253 .776 Prorated Atl 4.61 7 7 2 2 0 40 39 7 18 42 .253 .776 Actual Atl 2.50 22 0 4 0 0 40 35 4 19 32 .232 .715 Prorated Phi 4.61 15 15 4 4 0 87 85 15 40 91 .253 .776 Actual Phi 3.63 15 15 3 4 0 94 81 14 27 80 .232 .687 Prorated Tot 4.61 22 22 6 6 0 127 123 22 58 132 .253 .776 Actual Tot 3.29 37 15 7 4 0 134 116 18 46 112 .232 .696Even though Chen is young and gave up a bunch of homers (11 in 51 innings) the year before, I don't see why Bobby Cox didn't open the season with Chen in the rotation ahead of Burkett and Mulholland. Or why he didn't give Chen a shot when those two were getting rocked so often early in the year. Or why he was traded for a guy (Ashby) who had an ERA in the mid-5s at the time. Chen went on to pitch pretty well for Philly, though he continued to give up the longball too often. Ashby pitched fairly well for the Braves, but he's now with the Dodgers, and I'll bet Atlanta is wishing they still had Chen on the roster. John Burkett, starter, age 35 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Atl 5.01 4 4 1 2 0 23 28 3 7 18 .298 .807 Prorated Atl 5.01 23 23 6 12 0 135 162 17 41 104 .298 .807 Actual Atl 4.89 31 22 10 6 0 134 162 13 51 110 .303 .810Going into the season, it had been four years since Burkett had given up fewer than 37 more hits than innings pitched. That's a lot of base hits, friends, and you'd better have good control and keep the ball in the yard if you're going to survive at that rate. After back-to-back seasons with ERAs above 5.60, we didn't think Burkett would win a job in 2000, so he was projected to be nothing more than a guy who would fill in when someone got hurt. For reasons that I don't fully understand, Bobby Cox handed him the ball 23 times. Granted, he didn't have a lot of options after Smoltz went down for the year, but he did have Bruce Chen. And where exactly is the evidence that Burkett was suddenly going to start getting guys out on a regular basis? He wasn't terrible, but he did allow the league to bat over .300 for the third time in four years. Surely a smart guy like Cox wasn't suckered by Burkett's 10-6 record, a mark that was built not on pitching prowess but 7.1 runs per game of support from his offense. Andy Ashby, starter, age 32 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Phi 4.45 32 32 12 12 0 212 225 27 59 133 .275 .765 Prorated Phi 4.45 16 16 6 6 0 108 114 14 30 68 .275 .765 Actual Phi 5.68 16 16 4 7 0 101 113 17 38 51 .288 .831 Prorated Atl 4.45 15 15 6 6 0 98 103 12 27 61 .275 .765 Actual Atl 4.13 15 15 8 6 0 98 103 12 23 55 .271 .743 Prorated Tot 4.45 31 31 12 12 0 205 218 26 57 129 .275 .765 Actual Tot 4.92 31 31 12 13 0 199 216 29 61 106 .280 .788Ashby has averaged over 200 innings per year since 1997 and has consistently produced at the league average or better in that span. Except for the drop in strikeouts, this season was in line with his recent years, allowing for a slight decline due to age. A free agent after the season, Ashby signed a three-year, $22.5 million deal with the Dodgers. That might seem like a lot of money for a guy with a 4.92 ERA, but with really good pitchers going for $15-17 million per, it's not out of line. Stan Belinda, reliever, age 33 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Col 5.20 40 0 3 3 0 54 59 11 22 55 .280 .860 Prorated Col 5.20 28 0 2 2 0 37 41 8 15 38 .280 .860 Actual Col 7.07 46 0 1 3 1 36 39 10 17 40 .277 .961 Prorated Atl 5.20 9 0 1 1 0 12 13 2 5 12 .280 .860 Actual Atl 9.82 10 0 0 0 0 11 16 4 5 11 .348 1.168 Prorated Tot 5.20 37 0 3 3 0 49 54 10 20 50 .280 .860 Actual Tot 7.71 56 0 1 3 1 47 55 14 22 51 .294 1.012Unfortunately, this may be the end of the road for Belinda. Two years ago, he was diagnosed as being in the early stages of multiple sclerosis, and he's waged a courageous battle to prolong his career in the face of that illness. Colorado released him in late July, and when Belinda didn't fare any better with Atlanta, he left the team in early September to return home and ponder his retirement. As far as I know, he hasn't formally announced his retirement, but he hasn't signed with anyone for the coming season, either. Scott Kamieniecki, reliever, age 36 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Cle 5.23 27 4 3 3 0 52 59 6 24 30 .291 .819 Prorated Cle 5.23 18 3 2 2 0 35 40 4 16 20 .291 .819 Actual Cle 5.67 26 0 1 3 0 33 42 6 20 29 .311 .930 Prorated Atl 5.23 13 2 1 1 0 25 29 3 12 15 .291 .819 Actual Atl 5.47 26 0 2 1 2 25 22 3 22 17 .239 .799 Prorated Tot 5.23 31 5 3 3 0 60 68 7 28 35 .291 .819 Actual Tot 5.59 52 0 3 4 2 58 64 9 42 46 .282 .876Gotta love those veterans. Cox seems to, anyway. Kamieniecki was designated for assignment by the Indians in late June and was signed by the Braves after he exercised his right to refuse the assignment and become a free agent. An appalling lack of control limited his effectiveness, and he is once again a free agent. Kerry Ligtenberg, reliever, age 29 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Atl 2.88 53 0 4 2 6 59 46 7 20 64 .214 .637 Prorated Atl 2.88 48 0 4 2 5 54 42 6 18 58 .214 .637 Actual Atl 3.61 59 0 2 3 12 52 43 7 24 51 .226 .717Nobody really knew how well Ligtenberg would pitch, or how long he would last, after a torn elbow ligament cost him the entire 1999 season. He was inconsistent in the early going but was in top form the rest of the way after spending ten days in AAA in mid-May. Ligtenberg came out of nowhere (well, out of an independent league) to save 30 games in 34 chances in 1998, then picked up another 12 saves in 14 chances last year. Jason Marquis, reliever, age 21 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Atl 5.82 3 3 1 1 0 17 19 3 9 11 .288 .877 Prorated Atl 5.82 4 4 1 1 0 22 25 4 12 15 .288 .877 Actual Atl 5.01 15 0 1 0 0 23 23 4 12 17 .261 .796This hard-throwing youngster has moved quickly through the Braves system, never really dominating at any level, but showing no signs that he was being rushed, either. He was banged around pretty good in six AAA starts, but held his own in his first exposure to major-league hitters. Should be a good one, but might need one more year of seasoning. (Then again, Cox might wait until Marquis is in his thirties before he gains enough confidence in him. I know, that was a cheap shot, and I apologize. I guess I still harbor some resentment from my Toronto days. I thought Cox should have been fired for the dreadful way he managed the talented Blue Jays teams in the mid-1980s, especially in the 1985 ALCS against Kansas City, when he chose to start Dave Stieb on three days rest and committed many other tactical sins. But I digress. To be fair, Cox has occasionally shown faith in young pitchers -- Steve Avery comes to mind -- and has a very good track record of keeping pitchers healthy.) Kevin McGlinchy, reliever, age 23 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Atl 3.82 70 0 6 4 3 97 98 9 39 88 .263 .725 Prorated Atl 3.82 7 0 1 0 0 10 10 1 4 9 .263 .725 Actual Atl 2.16 10 0 0 0 0 8 11 1 6 9 .314 .843After a terrific debut season in 1999 (7-3, 2.82 in 70 relief innings), McGlinchy allowed 17 baserunners in 8 innings in three brief stints that were sandwiched around a pair of long visits to the disabled list (shoulder tendinitis). He's rehabbing that shoulder again, but after three setbacks in eight months, cannot be sure he'll be ready for the coming season. Greg McMichael, reliever, age 33 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Atl 5.18 30 0 1 3 0 40 46 7 18 32 .291 .856 Prorated Atl 5.18 10 0 0 1 0 14 16 2 6 11 .291 .856 Actual Atl 4.41 15 0 0 0 0 16 12 3 4 14 .214 .637McMichael was pitching quite well when he tore his rotator cuff on May 27th. He tried rehabbing the shoulder for a month but chose to have surgery in July when it became clear that he wouldn't be able to pitch again in 2000. He's now a free agent. Gabe Molina, reliever, age 25 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Bal 4.08 13 0 1 1 0 18 17 3 10 15 .258 .790 Prorated Bal 4.08 12 0 1 1 0 17 16 3 9 14 .258 .790 Actual Bal 9.00 9 0 0 0 0 13 25 2 9 8 .397 .983 Prorated Atl 4.08 2 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 1 2 .258 .790 Actual Atl 9.00 2 0 0 0 0 2 3 1 1 1 .375 1.205 Prorated Tot 4.08 14 0 1 1 0 19 19 3 11 16 .258 .790 Actual Tot 9.00 11 0 0 0 0 15 28 3 10 9 .394 1.008As you can see, Molina has struggled mightily at the major-league level to this point, but better things should lie ahead. Groomed as a closer, he's been effective in just about every way in a strong minor-league career -- low hits to innings ratio, good control, few homers allowed, and more than one strikeout per inning -- so better things lie ahead for this young man. Mike Remlinger, reliever, age 34 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Atl 4.39 70 0 5 5 1 96 93 13 45 90 .254 .753 Prorated Atl 4.39 52 0 4 4 1 71 69 10 33 67 .254 .753 Actual Atl 3.47 71 0 5 3 12 73 55 6 37 72 .207 .628After Remlinger had a couple of mediocre seasons with Cincinnati, who tried him as a starting pitcher, Remlinger has put together two terrific seasons in the Atlanta bullpen. You'd like to see him reduce his walk rate a little, but there's precious little to complain about other than that. He held opposing hitters to a .207 batting average and a .320 slugging average -- shutting down both left- and right-handed hitters for the second year in a row -- and notched 5 wins, 23 holds and 12 saves. Rudy Seanez, reliever, age 31 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Atl 2.96 23 0 2 1 0 24 21 2 11 24 .233 .654 Prorated Atl 2.96 20 0 2 1 0 21 18 2 9 21 .233 .654 Actual Atl 4.29 23 0 2 4 2 21 15 3 9 20 .192 .605When healthy, Seanez has been a valuable right-handed setup man for the Braves since 1998. Unfortunately, he has battled a series of injuries in that time and saw his 2000 season end in June when an MRI revealed a complete tear in the medial collateral ligament in his elbow. That led to Tommy John surgery and a projected 12-18 months of rehab. If all goes well, Seanez could be available in the second half of the coming season, but he's a free agent now, so it's not clear where he'll be pitching when he does come back. John Rocker, closer, age 25 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Atl 2.77 70 0 5 5 36 75 57 7 39 89 .212 .648 Prorated Atl 2.77 56 0 4 4 29 59 45 6 31 71 .212 .648 Actual Atl 2.89 59 0 1 2 24 53 42 5 48 77 .210 .678The story of Rocker's season was control, specifically the lack of it. (I'm talking about walks, not his emotional makeup, though the two may well be related.) When he got the ball over the plate, he was very good -- 24 saves in 27 chances -- but there were stretches when Cox lost confidence in him and handed the ball to Ligtenberg or Remlinger in save situations. When a pitcher allows 100 baserunners in 53 innings, he usually has an ERA a full two runs higher than Rocker's actual 2.89 mark. He was lucky to get away with it this time around, and he needs to cut his walks in half to remain an effective closer in the future. Outlook It's a tribute to their management prowess that they have been able to stay ahead of the curve for so long, replacing aging players with youngsters developed through their farm system, making key trades at the right time, locking up the core of the team to long-term contracts before they made it onto the free agent market, and refusing to be panicked into any stupid moves along the way. Atlanta has been pretty quiet since the end of the season. They didn't lose any of their core players (Galarraga is a little too old to be considered in that group), but they didn't make a serious run at any of the top free agents, either. While there's no question that Mike Hampton, Alex Rodriguez or Manny Ramirez would have made them a better team right now, their decision to hold onto their money will give them more flexibility down the road. If Smoltz comes back, their starting rotation remains the best in the game, so the big question is whether they will score enough runs to be a great team. Rico Brogna replaces Galarraga, a move that should help the defense and hurt the offense. Andruw Jones should continue to improve. Brian Jordan could have a better season if he's healthy. They have money to rebuild their bench, though they have not yet made any meaningful moves in that direction. As currently constituted, I think it's 50-50 as to whether the 2001 Braves outscore their 2000 counterparts. With the Mets having been weakened by the loss of Mike Hampton, and with John Smoltz on track to return, I don't see any reason why the Braves won't win their 11th straight division title. But the measure of this franchise will be whether they can go all the way, and I think they need another bat or two to enter the post-season as favorites to win it all. Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond Mind, Inc. All rights reserved. Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights reserved. | Diamond Mind reports | ||||