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| Tuesday, January 30 | |||||
| Season in review: Cleveland Indians Diamond Mind Baseball | |||||
Diamond Mind is a highly-realistic strategy-oriented computer baseball game. Founder Tom Tippett and a team of top baseball analysts -- Gary Gillette, Stuart Shea and Zack Scott -- are presenting detailed reviews of each team's performance in 2000 (with projected and actual statistics for all key players) along with their thoughts about the outlook for the 2001 season.
This article takes a look at how the Cleveland Indians did in the 2000 season
relative to preseason expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page at the Diamond Mind web site.
Capsule summaryProjected Actual Runs for 934 950 Runs allowed 794 816 Run Margin 140 134 Wins 94 90 Pythagorean wins 94 93 Placement 1st 2ndFollowing their collapse versus Boston in the 1999 ALDS, the Indians fired manager Mike Hargrove for not bringing a world championship to Cleveland. Under Hargrove, the Indians averaged 97 wins over the last five seasons (with their 1995 win total extrapolated to a full season) and won their division in each of those years. It was an impressive run, but they lost in both of their World Series appearances, and their 1999 playoff debacle was the final straw. So Charlie Manuel was hired with the hopes that a new skipper would yield better results, but the Chicago White Sox came out of nowhere to end Cleveland's streak at five AL Central titles. The White Sox took control of the division in June by winning 20 games while Cleveland had their only losing month of the season (13-16). But the Indians made some moves to fill pitching needs, and their veteran players picked it up a notch, leading the team to the AL's best record after the break (46-30). Their late run proved to not be enough, and the Indians came up a game short in the wildcard race and missed the playoffs for the first time in six years. Key position players Cleveland looked to be strong once again, entering the season with essentially the same cast of characters that produced the AL's best offense in 1999. The 2000 edition was even more powerful, blasting 12 more homers than a year ago and hitting more than 200 for the second straight year. Statistically, the offense ranked the same or higher in several categories -- average, OBP, SPC, HR, and total bases -- the offense was not as efficient (or lucky) as it had been the year before. As a result, they scored 59 fewer runs than in 1999 and finished second in scoring behind the White Sox, who trailed the Indians statistically but made the most of their opportunities. Manny Ramirez led the offensive charge with support from typically solid performances by Jim Thome, Roberto Alomar, and Kenny Lofton, Travis Fryman's career year, and the combined efforts of the Davids (Justice and Segui). Defensively, the Tribe made the fewest errors in the league thanks to the remarkably steady defense of Gold Glove winners Omar Vizquel (3 errors), Alomar (15 errors), and Fryman (8 errors) and the combination of Thome, Segui, and Richie Sexson at first (6 errors combined). Sandy Alomar, c, age 34 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Cle 474 127 34 2 14 63 70 3 26 1 58 0 1 .268 .308 .437 .744 61 Prorated Cle 356 95 26 2 11 47 53 2 20 1 44 0 1 .268 .308 .437 .744 46 Actual Cle 356 103 16 2 7 44 42 4 16 1 41 2 2 .289 .324 .404 .728 45Thirteen years and eight knee operations later, Alomar continues to battle through the nagging injuries that plague an aging catcher. But his significant loss of power results in average-at-best production, and his arm continues to be weak (only 20 percent CS over the last two seasons). By acquiring Eddie Taubensee from Cincinnati, the Indians bid Alomar adieu, and he signed with the White Sox to be the veteran presence they feel their young pitching needs. Einar Diaz, c, age 27 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Cle 88 25 5 0 1 11 9 1 5 0 9 1 1 .284 .330 .375 .705 10 Prorated Cle 255 72 14 0 3 32 26 3 14 0 26 3 3 .284 .330 .375 .705 30 Actual Cle 250 68 14 2 4 29 25 8 11 0 29 4 2 .272 .323 .392 .715 30Diaz will never be more than a backup because he has no power and doesn't walk, but he has a slightly above average arm and fields the position well. Basically, he hits like today's Alomar but catches like the Alomar of 5 years ago minus the 13 years of major league experience. Diaz will share time with Taubensee in 2001. Jim Thome, 1b/dh, age 29 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Cle 531 146 32 2 32 105 104 4 119 11 163 0 0 .275 .409 .524 .932 122 Prorated Cle 552 152 33 2 33 109 108 4 124 11 169 0 0 .275 .409 .524 .932 127 Actual Cle 557 150 33 1 37 106 106 4 118 4 171 1 0 .269 .398 .531 .929 127Since becoming Cleveland's everyday first baseman in 1995, Thome has averaged 34 homers and almost 100 RBI per season, but his overall on-base and slugging numbers have been steadily declining since 1996 (dropping 52 OBP points and 81 SPC points, respectively). Despite the offensive decline, Thome still ranked among the AL's top 5 first basemen, and his defense continues to improve. With David Segui's departure, Thome will see most if not all of his time at first and less at DH. David Segui, 1b/dh, age 33 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tex 567 162 31 3 20 78 75 1 55 6 80 1 1 .286 .347 .457 .803 89 Prorated Tex 350 100 19 2 12 48 46 1 34 4 49 1 1 .286 .347 .457 .803 55 Actual Tex 351 118 29 1 11 52 57 0 34 1 51 0 1 .336 .391 .519 .909 69 Prorated Cle 221 63 12 1 8 30 29 0 21 2 31 0 0 .286 .347 .457 .803 35 Actual Cle 223 74 13 0 8 41 46 1 19 1 33 0 0 .332 .384 .498 .881 41 Prorated Tot 571 163 31 3 20 78 75 1 55 6 81 1 1 .286 .347 .457 .803 90 Actual Tot 574 192 42 1 19 93 103 1 53 2 84 0 1 .334 .388 .510 .898 110After losing the productive bat of David Justice, Cleveland added punch to the lineup by sending Ricky Ledee to Texas for Segui. As an Indian, Segui was an RBI machine, knocking in 46 runs in just 57 games as he continued to hit at his career best average. Segui also achieved career bests in hits, doubles, runs, and RBI, driving in over 100 runs for the first time. After the season, he signed a 4-year, $28 million contract to return to Baltimore, where his career began. Roberto Alomar, 2b, age 32 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Cle 563 172 38 2 17 107 87 5 80 2 80 23 5 .306 .391 .471 .862 110 Prorated Cle 590 180 40 2 18 112 91 5 84 2 84 24 5 .306 .391 .471 .862 116 Actual Cle 610 189 40 2 19 111 89 6 64 4 82 39 4 .310 .378 .475 .853 114As expected, Alomar's numbers came back towards their norms following his career year in 1999. Despite the drop in production, he was still the best second baseman in the AL, and he maintained his defensive reputation by winning his ninth Gold Glove. Offensively, Alomar is great asset in the second or third spot in the batting order because he gets on base (career .375 OBP), has speed (39 steals, league-leading 91% success rate), and drives in runs with his .300+ average. Alomar's impressive offense from a middle infielder and defensive reputation make him a sure-bet Hall of Famer. Travis Fryman, 3b, age 31 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Cle 535 143 29 2 20 73 85 3 46 1 105 7 4 .267 .326 .441 .767 74 Prorated Cle 598 160 32 2 22 82 95 3 51 1 117 8 4 .267 .326 .441 .767 83 Actual Cle 574 184 38 4 22 93 106 1 73 2 111 1 1 .321 .392 .516 .908 118Fryman came back from a torn knee ligament (1999) to put up his best numbers to date, setting new career highs in batting average, OBP, SPC, hits, doubles, total bases, and RBI. His production was second among third basemen only to AL homerun champ Troy Glaus. Fryman even managed to win his first Gold Glove -- a dubious choice that was based on his league-leading fielding percentage but ignored his well-below-average range. Perhaps Cleveland realized that his defense really wasn't Gold Glove caliber, because they were reportedly interested in Ken Caminiti and Phil Nevin during the off-season. If Fryman returns to average offensive production in 2001, expect Russell Branyan to get a shot at third. Enrique Wilson, 3b/ss/2b, age 24 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Cle 90 24 5 0 1 13 8 0 7 0 10 2 1 .267 .316 .356 .672 10 Prorated Cle 115 31 6 0 1 17 10 0 9 0 13 3 1 .267 .316 .356 .672 13 Actual Cle 117 38 9 0 2 16 12 0 7 0 11 2 1 .325 .360 .453 .813 19 Prorated Pit 124 33 7 0 1 18 11 0 10 0 14 3 1 .267 .316 .356 .672 14 Actual Pit 122 32 6 1 3 11 15 0 11 2 13 0 1 .262 .321 .402 .723 15 Prorated Tot 239 64 13 0 3 35 21 0 19 0 27 5 3 .267 .316 .356 .672 27 Actual Tot 239 70 15 1 5 27 27 0 18 2 24 2 2 .293 .340 .427 .767 34Cleveland has wasted more than three years of Wilson's career by keeping him on a roster loaded with infield talent. While his poor range and less-than-thrilling hitting ability don't bode well for Wilson's career, the Indians did him a favor by trading him to Pittsburgh in the Wil Cordero deal, and Wilson will challenge the Pirates incumbent starting infielders for a job. Omar Vizquel, ss, age 33 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Cle 616 184 34 5 6 102 62 3 68 0 63 37 10 .299 .368 .399 .767 97 Prorated Cle 624 186 34 5 6 103 63 3 69 0 64 37 10 .299 .368 .399 .767 99 Actual Cle 613 176 27 3 7 101 66 5 87 0 72 22 10 .287 .377 .375 .753 93Vizquel joined Roberto Alomar and Fryman as Gold Glove winners, notching his 8th consecutive award. While his range has deteriorated slightly, he has the best hands in the biz and made only 3 (!) errors at the most demanding position. At the plate, Vizquel's bat came back to earth after a career year in 1999, but he reached base often by walking 22 times more than his previous high. His ability to get on base helped him score over 100 runs for the second straight season. David Justice, lf/rf/dh, age 34 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Cle 530 148 30 1 23 88 94 2 91 9 98 3 3 .279 .383 .470 .853 99 Prorated Cle 243 68 14 0 11 40 43 1 42 4 45 1 1 .279 .383 .470 .853 45 Actual Cle 249 66 14 1 21 46 58 0 38 2 49 1 1 .265 .361 .582 .943 52 Prorated NYA 268 75 15 1 12 44 48 1 46 5 50 2 2 .279 .383 .470 .853 50 Actual NYA 275 84 17 0 20 43 60 1 39 1 42 1 0 .305 .391 .585 .977 64 Prorated Tot 511 143 29 1 22 85 91 2 88 9 94 3 3 .279 .383 .470 .853 95 Actual Tot 524 150 31 1 41 89 118 1 77 3 91 2 1 .286 .377 .584 .961 116In the midst of one of his best years, the Indians sent Justice and his $7 million salary to the Yankees, perhaps looking to free up funds to re-sign Manny Ramirez after the season. Justice went on to play even better with New York and won his second World Series ring while Cleveland finished one game out of the wild card. What if the Indians never traded Justice for Ledee? Cleveland essentially replaced Justice by sending Ledee on to Texas for Segui. The combination of Segui and Ledee created 48 runs (RC) for Cleveland while Justice created 64 for the Yanks, a difference of 16 runs. Forgive me for oversimplifying (not taking defense into account or other possible replacements), but if Cleveland keeps Justice, they score 16 more runs which typically wins them 2 more games and a playoff birth. In the end, this trade may have kept the Indians out of the playoffs, and the money saved didn't help them retain Ramirez. Richie Sexson, lf/1b/dh, age 25 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Cle 598 153 29 3 31 88 125 5 48 1 131 3 3 .256 .313 .470 .783 83 Prorated Cle 324 83 16 2 17 48 68 3 26 1 71 2 2 .256 .313 .470 .783 45 Actual Cle 324 83 16 1 16 45 44 4 25 0 96 1 0 .256 .315 .460 .774 46 Prorated Mil 228 58 11 1 12 34 48 2 18 0 50 1 1 .256 .313 .470 .783 32 Actual Mil 213 63 14 0 14 44 47 3 34 2 63 1 0 .296 .398 .559 .957 50 Prorated Tot 552 141 27 3 29 81 115 5 44 1 121 3 3 .256 .313 .470 .783 77 Actual Tot 537 146 30 1 30 89 91 7 59 2 159 2 0 .272 .349 .499 .848 95How long will it take before we add Sexson to the list of young talent (already includes Brian Giles, Sean Casey, and Jeromy Burnitz) traded away by the Indians only to become stars with other teams? In return for Sexson, Milwaukee gave Cleveland two below average starting pitchers (Steve Woodard and Jason Bere) and a closer (Bob Wickman) who was only slightly better than the pitcher he replaced (Steve Karsay). But perhaps they had good reason to believe Sexson was expendable. As an Indian, he displayed impressive homerun power but was impatient at the plate, striking out almost 4 times as often as he walked. But right on cue, Sexson showed flashes of superstar potential as a Brewer by adding 40 points to his batting average, hitting for more power, and almost doubling his walk rate. I wonder if Cleveland would be better off in 2001 (competitively and financially) if they kept Justice and Sexson and didn't sign Ellis Burks and Juan Gonzalez. I guess time will tell. Wil Cordero, lf, age 28 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Pit 557 156 34 2 21 93 83 8 43 2 109 2 1 .280 .338 .461 .799 86 Prorated Pit 343 96 21 1 13 57 51 5 26 1 67 1 1 .280 .338 .461 .799 53 Actual Pit 348 98 24 3 16 46 51 4 25 1 58 1 2 .282 .336 .506 .842 55 Prorated Cle 143 40 9 1 5 24 21 2 11 1 28 1 0 .280 .338 .461 .799 22 Actual Cle 148 39 11 2 0 18 17 3 7 0 18 0 0 .264 .310 .365 .675 15 Prorated Tot 486 136 30 2 18 81 72 7 38 2 95 2 1 .280 .338 .461 .799 75 Actual Tot 496 137 35 5 16 64 68 7 32 1 76 1 2 .276 .328 .464 .792 70After moving Justice and Sexson to cut payroll and acquire pitching help, the Indians filled the outfield void by trading Alex Ramirez and Enrique Wilson to Pittsburgh for Cordero. Cleveland hoped he could duplicate his 1999 success and continue to hit with the power he displayed as a Pirate. But Cordero's power disappeared upon his return to Cleveland (no homeruns) before his season was cut short when a pitch broke the little finger on his right hand. Cordero will be part of a crowded corner outfield/DH mix (along with Burks, Gonzalez, Branyan, and Butch Huskey) in 2001. Ricky Ledee, lf/rf, age 26 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection NYA 397 105 21 4 15 70 57 1 46 4 108 8 4 .264 .339 .451 .790 62 Prorated NYA 195 51 10 2 7 34 28 0 23 2 53 4 2 .264 .339 .451 .790 31 Actual NYA 191 46 11 1 7 23 31 1 26 2 39 7 3 .241 .332 .419 .751 26 Prorated Cle 63 17 3 1 2 11 9 0 7 1 17 1 1 .264 .339 .451 .790 10 Actual Cle 63 14 2 1 2 13 8 0 8 0 9 0 0 .222 .310 .381 .691 7 Prorated Tex 212 56 11 2 8 37 30 1 25 2 58 4 2 .264 .339 .451 .790 33 Actual Tex 213 50 6 3 4 23 38 1 25 2 50 6 3 .235 .317 .347 .664 23 Prorated Tot 470 124 25 5 18 83 67 1 54 5 128 9 5 .264 .339 .451 .790 74 Actual Tot 467 110 19 5 13 59 77 2 59 4 98 13 6 .236 .322 .381 .703 56It was only a matter of time before George Steinbrenner grew tired of his inexperienced left fielders and acquired a high-priced veteran. Ledee's brief stopover in Cleveland was bad, and he was even worse after being sent to Texas for a more established bat (Segui). Ledee plays good defense but hasn't hit for the average or power that is necessary to be a big-league corner outfielder. In 2001, Ledee may be Texas' fourth outfielder behind Gabe Kapler, Ruben Mateo, and Rusty Greer. Kenny Lofton, cf, age 33 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Cle 575 166 31 7 10 109 55 4 83 2 90 33 9 .289 .380 .419 .799 100 Prorated Cle 550 159 30 7 10 104 53 4 79 2 86 32 9 .289 .380 .419 .799 96 Actual Cle 543 151 23 5 15 107 73 4 79 3 72 30 7 .278 .369 .422 .791 92 Lofton's dislocated left shoulder (injured while sliding into first during the 1999 ALDS) required off-season rotator cuff surgery, and he was expected to miss at least the first three months of the season. But Lofton rehabbed vigorously and was Cleveland's starting CF on opening day. While his determination is commendable, his numbers through June (.237 AVG, 17 extra-base hits) suggest Lofton may have come back too soon. The doctors' timetable of three months appeared to be right on because Lofton was outstanding for the rest of the season (.306 AVG, 26 extra-base hits). Despite his slow start, Lofton got on base enough to score more than 100 runs for the 6th time in his eight seasons as an Indian. Cleveland rewarded Lofton's strong second half by picking up his $8 million option, and they're counting on him to set the table for Burks, Gonzalez, and Thome. Manny Ramirez, rf, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Cle 546 167 35 1 36 112 133 10 85 6 118 2 2 .306 .404 .571 .976 128 Prorated Cle 448 137 29 1 30 92 109 8 70 5 97 2 2 .306 .404 .571 .976 105 Actual Cle 439 154 34 2 38 92 122 3 86 9 117 1 1 .351 .457 .697 1.154 144Ramirez appeared in his fewest games in six years due to a hamstring injury that caused him to miss all of June, half of July, and a week in August. Manuel didn't help the Indians' chances of re-signing Ramirez by making it known that he wasn't happy with Manny's long absence due to a common injury. But you can't blame the manager for wanting Manny's bat in the lineup as often as possible. Ramirez led the league with a Ruthian slugging percentage and finished third in batting average, resulting in his third consecutive season with at least 120 RBI. He has averaged 144 RBI in that time and is the major league's active career leader in RBI rate (minimum 1000 AB) with one per 4.3 atbats. And he's only 28! The only numbers more mind-boggling may be on the contract he signed with the Red Sox, where the game's best hitter will join the game's best pitcher in 2001. Alex Ramirez, rf/lf, age 25 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Cle 72 20 4 1 2 11 11 1 2 0 14 1 1 .278 .307 .444 .751 9 Prorated Cle 112 31 6 2 3 17 17 2 3 0 22 2 2 .278 .307 .444 .751 14 Actual Cle 112 32 5 1 5 13 12 0 5 0 17 1 0 .286 .316 .482 .798 16 Prorated Pit 118 33 7 2 3 18 18 2 3 0 23 2 2 .278 .307 .444 .751 15 Actual Pit 115 24 6 1 4 13 18 0 7 2 32 1 0 .209 .254 .383 .637 9 Prorated Tot 230 64 13 3 6 35 35 3 6 0 45 3 3 .278 .307 .444 .751 28 Actual Tot 227 56 11 2 9 26 30 0 12 2 49 2 0 .247 .285 .432 .716 25The much less significant outfielder named Ramirez played adequate defense but was a huge downgrade on offense (who wouldn't be?) as a replacement for the injured Manny. After his trade to Pittsburgh, Ramirez played himself out of a job and will earn his salary in Japan this season. Jolbert Cabrera, of/2b/ss, age 27 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Cle 67 17 3 0 0 10 5 1 6 0 10 3 1 .254 .324 .299 .623 7 Prorated Cle 167 42 7 0 0 25 12 2 15 0 25 7 2 .254 .324 .299 .623 17 Actual Cle 175 44 3 1 2 27 15 2 8 0 15 6 4 .251 .290 .314 .605 16Cabrera played more than expected to give Lofton's shoulder a rest, but he was mostly used as a defensive replacement. While he's a good outfielder and adequate middle infielder, Cabrera can't hit so he'll never be more than a utility guy. Russ Branyan, dh/lf/rf/3b, age 24 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Cle 66 13 2 0 4 8 11 1 8 0 28 1 0 .197 .293 .409 .702 8 Prorated Cle 194 38 6 0 12 23 32 3 23 0 82 3 0 .197 .293 .409 .702 25 Actual Cle 193 46 7 2 16 32 38 4 22 1 76 0 0 .238 .327 .544 .871 36Branyan hit with the power of Jason Giambi but the batting average of Ricky Ledee, suggesting he may become a star if he learns to make consistent contact. But Branyan's minor league career .251 AVG and 838 strikeouts (in only 601 games) indicates he may be an all-or-nothing hitter. The good news: he turned 25 in December, so there's plenty of time for development. Branyan was mostly a third baseman in the minors but, with Fryman at third, has played in the outfield for Cleveland. With Burks, Gonzalez, Cordero, and Huskey expected to share time in the outfield and at DH, Fryman at third, and Thome at first, there may not be enough playing time for Branyan. The situation is reminiscent of the circumstances surrounding Giles, Casey, Burnitz, and Sexson. Will the list keep growing? Key pitchers The 2000 Indians used 32 pitchers which, to no surprise, was the most in the majors. Among those 32, eight of them attempted to fill in as the 4th and 5th starter for the injured Charles Nagy and Jaret Wright. Their minor-league callups and washed-up veterans (including Jaime Navarro -- ugh) didn't pan out, and they were forced to trade the awesome power potential of Sexson for Steve Woodard and Jason Bere. Despite the disaster at the bottom of their rotation, Cleveland's starters finished with an ERA in the middle of the pack thanks to typically strong performances from Bartolo Colon, Chuck Finley, and Dave Burba. Finley was their big off-season signing and a big reason why their staff allowed 44 fewer runs than the previous year (moving up from 8th to 5th in the league). Cleveland cycled even more bodies through their bullpen, and the results were slightly better (AL's 5th best bullpen ERA). Although the Tribe relievers allowed only 31% of inherited runners to score (2nd best in AL), they were shaky at the end of games, making good on only 57% of their save opportunities (4th worst in AL). Bartolo Colon, starter, age 25 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Cle 3.73 32 32 15 7 0 198 186 19 74 150 .250 .709 Prorated Cle 3.73 31 31 15 7 0 192 180 18 72 145 .250 .709 Actual Cle 3.88 30 30 15 8 0 188 163 21 98 212 .233 .701Despite throwing his fewest innings in three years, the Indian's ace struck out 51 more batters than his previous high set one year earlier. Colon also walked opponents at his highest rate ever while holding them to a career-low batting average. His lower inning total resulted from an early-season trip to the DL, and he later removed himself from a September start because he felt pain in his shoulder. Manuel was upset with Colon for taking himself out at a crucial time in the season, when his performance showed no ill effects of an injury (3-0, 1.94 ERA in September). Chuck Finley, starter, age 37 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Cle 4.44 32 32 13 10 0 205 206 22 95 186 .264 .755 Prorated Cle 4.44 33 33 14 10 0 214 215 23 99 194 .264 .755 Actual Cle 4.17 34 34 16 11 0 218 211 23 101 189 .256 .729Since becoming a starter in 1988, Finley has never had an ERA over 4.43 (1999), and it is this consistency that landed him a 3-year, $27 million contract with Cleveland. He lived up to his end of the bargain, pitching more than 200 quality innings for the tenth time in the last eleven years (1994 innings extrapolated for a full season). Although he's getting up there in years, Finley continues to be extremely durable, missing significant time to injury only once as a starter (1997). This year, he finished in the top 10 in several pitching categories and was especially good down the stretch, going 6-1 with a 3.38 ERA in September. Finley may miss part of April, 2001 due to off-season surgery to repair a knee injury sustained while conditioning. Dave Burba, starter, age 33 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Cle 4.50 32 32 13 10 0 206 208 28 86 152 .263 .767 Prorated Cle 4.50 30 30 12 9 0 195 197 27 81 144 .263 .767 Actual Cle 4.47 32 32 16 6 0 191 199 19 91 180 .267 .761In his three years as an Indian, Burba has averaged 205 innings and 15 wins, but his ERA has increased each year. His strikeouts have also been on the rise, setting a new career high this season, good enough for 7th best in the league. Like Colon and Finley, Burba was great down the stretch (4-0, 3.34 ERA in September), resulting in a combined 13-1 record with a 2.88 ERA for Cleveland's top three starters in the final month. Charles Nagy, starter, age 33 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Cle 5.24 32 32 12 12 0 206 239 28 64 124 .294 .816 Prorated Cle 5.24 10 10 4 4 0 61 71 8 19 37 .294 .816 Actual Cle 8.21 11 11 2 7 0 57 71 15 21 41 .300 .933The 10th-winningest pitcher in Indians history failed to pitch 200 innings for the first time in five years because of bone chips in his right elbow that required surgery in May. When he did pitch, Nagy was shelled for 15 homers in only 57 innings (extrapolates to 53 homeruns in 200 innings) which is by far his worst rate allowed. Cleveland tried to get three more starts out of him in September, but Nagy had nothing left. They hope the off-season allows him to regain arm strength and return to his reliable self in 2001. Jaret Wright, starter, age 24 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Cle 4.58 27 27 10 8 0 159 160 17 76 115 .264 .760 Prorated Cle 4.58 8 8 3 2 0 49 49 5 23 36 .264 .760 Actual Cle 4.70 9 9 3 4 0 52 44 6 28 36 .235 .754Like Nagy, Wright was only able to contribute 50+ innings to the Tribe because of arm problems. The young righty pitched well in his first seven starts (3-2, 3.15 ERA) before straining a muscle in his right shoulder in mid-May. He returned to get racked in two more starts before doctors diagnosed the injury as a partially frayed labrum, requiring season-ending arthroscopic surgery. If Wright returns to full strength in 2001, he will be part of a rotation that may be second only to the Yankees in the AL. Steve Woodard, starter, age 25 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mil 4.49 32 32 12 12 0 213 232 25 43 158 .279 .765 Prorated Mil 4.49 15 15 6 6 0 103 112 12 21 76 .279 .765 Actual Mil 5.96 27 11 1 7 0 94 125 16 33 65 .325 .906 Prorated Cle 4.49 8 8 3 3 0 54 59 6 11 40 .279 .765 Actual Cle 5.67 13 11 3 3 0 54 57 10 11 35 .269 .800 Prorated Tot 4.49 24 24 9 9 0 156 171 18 32 116 .279 .765 Actual Tot 5.85 40 22 4 10 0 148 182 26 44 100 .305 .869 Milwaukee hoped Woodard would become their No. 1 starter, but his awful performance coupled with the emergence of Jeff D'Amico made it easier to trade the young pitcher to Cleveland for a young slugger (Sexson). Woodard was better in Cleveland but still surrendered too many longballs. The highlight of his season was being the first Indian to ever beat Pedro Martinez, pitching six shutout innings in a key September game with huge wild card implications. Woodard heads into the upcoming season as the sixth starter and may make more starts if Nagy or Wright are not ready. Jason Bere, starter, age 29ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mil 5.94 27 27 6 10 0 126 146 17 80 92 .291 .859 Prorated Mil 5.94 23 23 5 9 0 109 127 15 69 80 .291 .859 Actual Mil 4.93 20 20 6 7 0 115 115 19 63 98 .264 .794 Prorated Cle 5.94 11 11 3 4 0 53 62 7 34 39 .291 .859 Actual Cle 6.63 11 11 6 3 0 54 65 6 26 44 .297 .820 Prorated Tot 5.94 35 35 8 13 0 162 189 22 103 119 .291 .859 Actual Tot 5.47 31 31 12 10 0 169 180 25 89 142 .275 .803Bere came over to Cleveland with Woodard and Bob Wickman to give the Indians some much needed pitching depth. Despite pitching worse as an Indian, Bere was a winning pitcher thanks to the support of the AL's second highest scoring offense. Bere made 30 starts for the first time in his 8-year career, which apparently impressed the Cubs enough to foolishly give him almost three times as much money for next season. Jim Brower, starter, age 27 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Cle 6.75 9 0 1 1 0 17 23 4 7 9 .324 .965 Prorated Cle 6.75 33 0 4 4 0 63 83 14 25 33 .324 .965 Actual Cle 6.24 17 11 2 3 0 62 80 11 31 32 .309 .873Brower was one of several pitchers that attempted to fill the shoes of Nagy and Wright, and, like most of the others, he failed. While he did pitch slightly better than expected, he kept his fielders busy by putting almost 2 runners on base per inning, and averaging less than 5 innings per start didn't help Cleveland's bullpen. After the season, the Indians traded Brower to Cincinnati (for Taubensee) where he will fight for a spot in an inexperienced rotation. Steve Reed, middle reliever, age 34 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Cle 3.73 70 0 7 3 3 99 94 13 35 74 .252 .731 Prorated Cle 3.73 41 0 4 2 2 57 54 8 20 43 .252 .731 Actual Cle 4.34 57 0 2 0 0 56 58 7 21 39 .269 .738Reed was one of the best relievers in baseball before coming to Cleveland in the middle of the 1998 season (3.35 career ERA -- impressive considering 84% of his innings were with Colorado). Since joining the Indians, he has suffered a series of injuries including a blood clot in his right wrist, a strep infection, and a sore right elbow. Perhaps arm injuries were related to his poor first-half performance (6.04 ERA), but Reed picked it up after the break (2.60 ERA) which has the Indians optimistic for 2001. Tom Martin, middle reliever, age 30 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Cle 6.78 53 0 2 5 0 66 92 11 33 53 .330 .940 Prorated Cle 6.78 24 0 1 2 0 30 41 5 15 24 .330 .940 Actual Cle 4.05 31 0 1 0 0 33 32 3 15 21 .254 .709Coming off of shoulder surgery in 1999, there weren't high expectations for Martin, and while he pitched well, he wasn't a key member of the staff. With lefties Ricardo Rincon and Cam Cairncross already in the bullpen, Martin was expendable, so the Indians recently traded him to the Mets. Scott Kamieniecki, middle reliever, age 36 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Cle 5.23 27 4 3 3 0 52 59 6 24 30 .291 .819 Prorated Cle 5.23 18 3 2 2 0 35 40 4 16 20 .291 .819 Actual Cle 5.67 26 0 1 3 0 33 42 6 20 29 .311 .930 Prorated Atl 5.23 13 2 1 1 0 25 29 3 12 15 .291 .819 Actual Atl 5.47 26 0 2 1 2 25 22 3 22 17 .239 .799 Prorated Tot 5.23 31 5 3 3 0 60 68 7 28 35 .291 .819 Actual Tot 5.59 52 0 3 4 2 58 64 9 42 46 .282 .876The Indians signed Kamieniecki hoping he could add depth to the bullpen as a long reliever. But putting two runners on base per inning didn't keep him in many games too long, and Cleveland released Kamieniecki in June. For some reason, the Braves signed him a week later, and, while he gave up fewer hits, he walked almost one batter per inning. Kamieniecki signed a minor league contract with the Yankees and will try to earn a spot on the team with whom he spent his first six years in the majors. Sean DePaula, middle reliever, age 26 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Cle 4.76 40 0 2 2 0 40 41 5 24 38 .270 .815 Prorated Cle 4.76 18 0 1 1 0 18 19 2 11 18 .270 .815 Actual Cle 5.94 13 0 0 0 0 17 20 3 14 16 .294 .866In the 1999 ALDS, Manager Mike Hargrove was criticized for removing DePaula after he shut down the Red Sox for three innings. Paul Shuey was brought in, Troy O'Leary went deep, Boston completed their improbable comeback, and Hargrove was fired. This year DePaula did not play much for his new manager, and when he did, he had control problems and got smacked around by the opposition. DePaula is young and still has a chance to contribute to the 2001 Indians as a long reliever. Justin Speier, long reliever, age 26 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Cle 6.19 11 0 1 1 0 16 21 4 9 13 .323 .977 Prorated Cle 6.19 41 0 4 4 0 60 79 15 34 49 .323 .977 Actual Cle 3.29 47 0 5 2 0 68 57 9 28 69 .226 .694After poor performances in the previous two years, the Indians called Speier up from the minors in late May, becoming the fourth team in three years to give him a shot. He was outstanding in his first 25 innings (1.44 ERA, 32 strikeouts, and only 5 walks) but was only mediocre at best the rest of the way. Speier was particularly unreliable in the late innings of close games, allowing batters to hit .367 with 4 homeruns in only 49 atbats. He will need to pitch better in these situations to gain the confidence of his manager and keep him employed with one team for more than a year. Ricky Rincon, lefty specialist, age 30 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Cle 3.53 70 0 5 2 1 74 66 9 33 61 .240 .715 Prorated Cle 3.53 20 0 1 1 0 21 19 3 9 17 .240 .715 Actual Cle 2.70 35 0 2 0 0 20 17 1 13 20 .224 .687After the 1998 season, Cleveland gave Pittsburgh superstar-to-be Brian Giles in return for Rincon, a situational reliever. Ouch! The deal looks even more lopsided considering Rincon's disappointing 1999 season and the fact that he missed half of 2000 due to bone spurs in his elbow (arthroscopic surgery in June). When he did pitch, Rincon was tough on lefties as usual, holding them to a .216 average, and he led the AL by only allowing 4% of inherited runners to score. The Indians picked up Rincon's contract option for 2002, suggesting they're not worried about his arm problems. Paul Shuey, setup man, age 29 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Cle 3.41 70 0 5 2 31 74 67 8 34 84 .244 .722 Prorated Cle 3.41 60 0 4 2 27 63 57 7 29 72 .244 .722 Actual Cle 3.39 57 0 4 2 0 64 51 4 30 69 .219 .626Shuey was expected to finally assume the role of closer (the reason Cleveland drafted him in 1992), but Steve Karsay won the job and Shuey remained a setup man. Despite missing more than a month due to hip surgery, he had a successful season which included a league-leading 28 holds. Shuey kept the ball in the park, allowing homers at his lowest rate since becoming a staple in the Indian bullpen in 1996. He will share setup duty with Karsay in 2001. Steve Karsay, closer/setup man, age 28 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Cle 4.91 53 0 4 3 0 73 82 8 24 56 .286 .791 Prorated Cle 4.91 55 0 4 3 0 76 85 8 25 58 .286 .791 Actual Cle 3.76 72 0 5 9 20 77 79 5 25 66 .266 .701Although he pitched better than expected, Karsay's first season as a closer was rough, blowing a league-high 31 percent of his save opportunities and allowing 46 percent of inherited runners to score (6th worst in the AL). He hasn't handled pressure situations well over the last five years (batters hit 25 points higher in the late innings of close games), so he may not be cut out for late-inning relief. The acquisition of Wickman ended Karsay's term as closer, and he will continue to setup Wickman in 2001. Bob Wickman, closer, age 31 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mil 3.58 70 0 4 6 30 73 72 6 34 62 .262 .720 Prorated Mil 3.58 43 0 2 4 18 45 44 4 21 38 .262 .720 Actual Mil 2.93 43 0 2 2 16 46 37 1 20 44 .215 .572 Prorated Cle 3.58 26 0 1 2 11 27 26 2 12 23 .262 .720 Actual Cle 3.38 26 0 1 3 14 27 27 0 12 11 .270 .688 Prorated Tot 3.58 69 0 4 6 29 72 71 6 33 61 .262 .720 Actual Tot 3.10 69 0 3 5 30 73 64 1 32 55 .235 .615The Indians acquired Wickman to provide much needed help at closer after growing tired of watching Karsay blow so many saves. Wickman, a former University of Wisconsin-Whitewater student, was enjoying a very good season in Milwaukee when they traded him to Cleveland. As an Indian, Wickman wasn't as good but was still slightly better than Karsay, so he will retain the closer job in 2001. The most impressive aspect of Wickman's season was that he only surrendered one homer all year (career low) which resulted in opponents slugging only .298. To put that in perspective, the amazing Pedro Martinez (.259) was the only qualifying starting pitcher in baseball with an opponents' slugging percentage under .300. Outlook Cleveland looks to build off of their strong second half and recapture the division crown, but they'll have to do it without Manny Ramirez, one of the most prolific run producers of the last six years. Losing the bidding war to the Red Sox was the second biggest story of baseball's off-season (A-Rod gets top billing), but the Indians feel they replaced a big chunk of his offense by signing Ellis Burks and Juan Gonzalez. Cleveland committed $17 million to two guys whose average age is five years older than Ramirez and who had injury problems (Burks' knees and Gonzalez' back) that limited their playing time last year. When he did play, Burks was outstanding, and Gonzalez may benefit from leaving the worst homerun park for right-handed hitters, but the jury is still out on how much the Indians offense might suffer with these two replacing Justice and Ramirez. If Nagy and Wright are healthy and return to form, the Indians have a deep starting rotation that may be second in the league behind the Yankees. Should Nagy or Wright not be ready or go down to injury, a full season with Woodard as insurance makes them better equipped to handle the situation. Likewise, a full season with Wickman improves their bullpen depth, although a reliable closer has yet to emerge. One concern is that the team isn't getting any younger. Russ Branyan is the only member of the projected starting lineup who will be under thirty on opening day, and two-thirds of their key pitchers have also bid their twenties goodbye. GM John Hart was praised in the past for tying up his young talent to long term contracts, but now it seems as if he trades away one potential star per year for aging veterans. Sexson was sacrificed last year and Branyan may be the next to go if Hart feels he's one veteran away from winning it all. The end result is a bleak future and an old team running out of time to bring Cleveland their first World Series championship since 1948. Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond Mind, Inc. All rights reserved. Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights reserved. | Diamond Mind reports | ||||