|
|
|
|
 |
| MLB |
|
Scores Schedules Standings Statistics Transactions Injuries: AL | NL Players Offseason moves Free Agents Message Board Minor Leagues MLB Stat Search MLB en español Clubhouses |
|
SportsMall
|
| Sport Sections |
|
|
| Wednesday, January 31 | |||||
| Season in review: Colorado Rockies Diamond Mind Baseball | |||||
Diamond Mind is a highly-realistic strategy-oriented computer baseball game. Founder Tom Tippett and a team of top baseball analysts -- Gary Gillette, Stuart Shea and Zack Scott -- are presenting detailed reviews of each team's performance in 2000 (with projected and actual statistics for all key players) along with their thoughts about the outlook for the 2001 season.
This article takes a look at how the Colorado Rockies did in the 2000 season
relative to preseason expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page at the Diamond Mind web site.
Capsule summaryProjected Actual Runs for 1009 968 Runs allowed 1041 897 Run Margin -32 71 Wins 78 82 Pythagorean wins 79 87 Placement 4th 4thLast spring, I wrote: "This is a very interesting team. Two years ago (1998), we projected the Rockies to win 77 games, they won 77 games, and a highly-respected manager (Don Baylor) was fired for failing to live up to expectations. Last spring [1999], we projected them to win 79 games, they won 72, and another highly-respected manager (Jim Leyland) resigned in frustration. This winter, ownership decided the problem was higher in the organization and brought in a new GM (Dan O'Dowd) who promptly turned over half the roster." I liked the changes they had made -- replacing a few aging veterans (Dante Bichette, Vinny Castilla, Ellis Burks) with younger, faster athletes -- and I picked the Rockies as the NL team most likely to surprise. For a while, it looked like that might happen. The Rockies woke up on the morning of July 4th with the division lead and a 45-33 record. But they were swept by the Giants in a holiday double-header that day and proceeded to lose eleven straight games. They made a bit of a run in August, but the Giants were red hot and running away with the division by then. Still, it was a marked improvement from their disappointing 1999 campaign. A breakout season from Todd Helton helped Colorado lead the league in scoring in spite of Larry Walker's absence and power shortage. But the real story was on the other side of the ball. The Rockies allowed 131 fewer runs than they had the year before, and the upgraded defense deserves at least some of the credit for that. Special note on park effects In the past couple of years, a few Rockies fans have written to me to express their frustration over our repeated references to the effects of Coors Field. They don't like it when we say things like "he batted .320, but the park gets most of the credit." But there's no way you can ignore such a powerful force. Last year, excluding inter-league games, there were 1063 runs scored at Coors and 643 in Colorado's road games. In other words, the same batters and pitchers produced 14.1 runs per game at home and 8.6 on the road. Batting averages were sixty-five points higher at home. There were 101 more homers at home than on the road. If you don't take this into account, you'd have to conclude that the club is stocked with great hitters and lousy pitchers, when the opposite is much closer to the truth. While it's clear that you can't take the stats of Rockies players at face value, it's not as easy to figure out how much different those stats would be in a neutral setting? So here are a few rules of thumb. The park increases batting averages by 60-70 points, but they only play half the games there, so take 30-35 points off all batting averages. Coors Field also adds doubles, triples and homers, so take 70-80 points off all slugging averages. As a result, it increases scoring by five to six runs per game, but (a) that includes both teams, (b) they only play half their games at home, and (c) some of those runs are unearned, so take about 1.25 off the ERA of any Rockies pitcher. Those adjusted figures give you a better handle on who's helping and who's hurting the team. Key position players The Rockies led the league in scoring, but not by as much as we projected. Todd Helton was incredibly good, but that's about it for positives. Larry Walker missed half the season and didn't hit for power the other half. Jeffrey Hammonds played well but missed forty games. Mike Lansing disappointed, though Todd Walker helped recoup some of those losses with a strong finish. Jeff Cirillo was awesome at home but horrible on the road. The catching corps didn't contribute much. The center fielders (Tom Goodwin, Brian Hunter) were a liability at the plate, but that was no surprise. This was a team with one great hitter who had a great year (Helton), one great hitter who had a disappointing year (Walker), one pretty good hitter who missed a quarter of the season (Hammonds) and another who had an off year (Cirillo), plus a bunch of slap hitters whose faults were disguised by some altitude-inflated batting averages. In other words, it was not a good hitting team. In road games, for instance, the Rockies were 15th in the league in scoring. Brent Mayne, c, age 32 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Col 491 157 43 0 6 65 65 6 62 6 84 2 1 .320 .400 .444 .844 87 Prorated Col 343 110 30 0 4 45 45 4 43 4 59 1 1 .320 .400 .444 .844 61 Actual Col 335 101 21 0 6 36 64 1 47 13 48 1 3 .301 .381 .418 .799 53Mayne has settled into his role as the left-handed bat in a catching platoon. He is solid behind the plate and has hit a point over .300 for two straight years. He takes his share of walks, too, though he's never contributed much power -- only 26 career homers in 2,400 at-bats. Scott Servais, c, age 33 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Col 85 23 5 0 2 11 11 1 6 1 12 0 0 .271 .326 .400 .726 10 Prorated Col 101 27 6 0 2 13 13 1 7 1 14 0 0 .271 .326 .400 .726 12 Actual Col 101 22 4 0 1 6 13 1 7 2 16 0 1 .218 .273 .287 .560 8 Prorated SF 9 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 .271 .326 .400 .726 1 Actual SF 8 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 1 0 0 .250 .400 .250 .650 1 Prorated Tot 110 30 6 0 3 14 14 1 8 1 15 0 0 .271 .326 .400 .726 14 Actual Tot 109 24 4 0 1 7 13 1 9 3 17 0 1 .220 .283 .284 .568 9Servais' projected role as Mayne's platoon partner was waylaid by two stints on the DL that totalled eight weeks. The injuries -- a sprained ankle and a strained calf muscle -- won't threaten his career, but his performance at the plate might. Colorado sent him to AAA when he was activated the second time, then traded him to the Giants two weeks later. San Francisco didn't keep him, either, and he'll be in camp with the Tigers after signing a minor-league contract with that club. Ben Petrick, c, age 23 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Col 65 17 3 0 4 12 13 0 9 0 13 2 1 .262 .347 .492 .839 11 Prorated Col 150 39 7 0 9 28 30 0 21 0 30 5 2 .262 .347 .492 .839 26 Actual Col 146 47 10 1 3 32 20 2 20 2 33 1 2 .322 .401 .466 .867 29The future. Petrick has impressed in the high minors -- .313 plus 28 homers in 530 at-bats with Triple-A Colorado Springs -- and in his first two shots at the big leagues. With the Rockies, he boasts a 'career' average of .322 and on-base percentage of .406 while showing a modest amount of power. Even if you discount his stats for the effects of altitude, it's still a good start for a player who won't turn 24 until April. Like many young catchers, he was tested early and often by enemy baserunners who stole 26 bases in 33 tries for an 81 percent success rate. But he's nimble behind the plate and his bat will earn him every opportunity to develop his other catching skills. Todd Helton, 1b, age 26 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Col 561 174 39 4 25 100 104 5 65 5 77 5 4 .310 .384 .528 .912 113 Prorated Col 616 191 43 4 27 110 114 5 71 5 85 5 4 .310 .384 .528 .912 124 Actual Col 580 216 59 2 42 138 147 4 103 22 61 5 3 .372 .463 .698 1.162 192For the third straight season, the NL batting champion hailed from Colorado. Larry Walker, who won in both 1998 and 1999, passed the baton to Todd Helton last year, and boy did Helton run with it. A torrid May (.512 with 11 homers) vaulted him well over .400, and he flirted with that magic number for another three months before fading a little in September. Lest you think that his home park was doing all the work, consider that he also batted .353 with a .441 OBP and a slugging average of .633 on the road. He led the majors in extra-base hits. A lefty batter, he was better against righties but still had an OBP of .451 and slugged .594 against left-handed pitchers. Amazingly, he was even better with runners in scoring position and in the late innings of close games. And he played great defense, deserving the Gold Glove that was mistakenly and reflexively awarded to J.T. Snow. In short, there was nothing he didn't do last year, and it makes you wonder if there's anything he won't do in the future. Mike Lansing, 2b, age 32 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Col 617 182 42 1 19 92 77 4 48 2 99 10 2 .295 .348 .459 .807 97 Prorated Col 364 107 25 1 11 54 45 2 28 1 58 6 1 .295 .348 .459 .807 57 Actual Col 365 94 14 6 11 62 47 0 31 1 49 8 2 .258 .315 .419 .734 46 Prorated Bos 135 40 9 0 4 20 17 1 10 0 22 2 0 .295 .348 .459 .807 21 Actual Bos 139 27 4 0 0 10 13 0 7 1 26 0 0 .194 .230 .223 .453 6 Prorated Tot 499 147 34 1 15 74 62 3 39 2 80 8 2 .295 .348 .459 .807 79 Actual Tot 504 121 18 6 11 72 60 0 38 2 75 8 2 .240 .292 .365 .657 50Lansing hit 20 homers for the Expos in 1997, and when he signed with Colorado the next year, I figured he'd put up very big numbers there. But his back began to give him problems in his first spring with the Rockies, and he began to experience hip and leg problems as he tried to compensate for his back. He slumped in 1998, then managed only 145 at-bats in 1999 between back-related trips to the disabled list. He missed a few more games with back pain last year, and he didn't hit anywhere but in Coors Field. His road stats with the Rockies were awful, and he didn't hit at all after the Red Sox agreed to take his $6.5 million salary as part of the Rolando Arrojo deal. If not for that big contract, Lansing might have run out of chances, but the Sox will give him one last shot this year, the final year of that deal. Todd Walker, 2b, age 27 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Min 592 169 37 3 12 82 63 2 59 6 83 18 9 .285 .351 .419 .770 85 Prorated Min 79 22 5 0 2 11 8 0 8 1 11 2 1 .285 .351 .419 .770 11 Actual Min 77 18 1 0 2 14 8 0 7 0 10 3 0 .234 .287 .325 .612 8 Prorated Col 177 50 11 1 4 25 19 1 18 2 25 5 3 .285 .351 .419 .770 26 Actual Col 171 54 10 4 7 28 36 1 20 0 19 4 1 .316 .385 .544 .928 38 Prorated Tot 255 73 16 1 5 35 27 1 25 3 36 8 4 .285 .351 .419 .770 37 Actual Tot 248 72 11 4 9 42 44 1 27 0 29 7 1 .290 .355 .476 .830 44Walker looked like a star in the making when be batted .316 as a 25-year-old in 1998, but he played himself into manager Tom Kelly's doghouse in 1999 and his slow start last year earned him a trip back to Triple-A in early May. He got his average back over .300 in the minors, but the Twins didn't seem overly impressed. Two months later, they dealt him and Butch Huskey to the Rockies for a minor-leaguer and some cash. With the Rockies, he beat out newly-acquired Jeff Frye for the starting 2B job that had once been Lansing's, and he responded with a surprising burst of power, mostly at home. He was a league-average hitter on the road, before and after the trade. Nevertheless, it looks like his job to lose going into this season, even though his range and hands are both subpar. Jeff Frye, 2b, age 33 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Bos 68 20 4 0 1 9 8 0 6 0 7 2 1 .294 .347 .397 .744 9 Prorated Bos 248 73 15 0 4 33 29 0 22 0 25 7 4 .294 .347 .397 .744 34 Actual Bos 239 69 13 0 1 35 13 1 28 0 38 1 3 .289 .364 .356 .720 32 Prorated Col 89 26 5 0 1 12 10 0 8 0 9 3 1 .294 .347 .397 .744 12 Actual Col 87 31 6 0 0 14 3 1 8 0 16 4 0 .356 .412 .425 .838 16 Prorated Tot 336 99 20 0 5 45 40 0 30 0 35 10 5 .294 .347 .397 .744 46 Actual Tot 326 100 19 0 1 49 16 2 36 0 54 5 3 .307 .377 .374 .751 47Frye must have thought that his prayers had finally been answered when he was traded to the Rockies. After finally becoming a starter for the Red Sox in 1997, Frye lost almost all of the next two seasons to a pair of knee injuries, then found himself behind Jose Offerman on the Sox depth chart. Thanks to Offerman's own injury problems, Frye played a lot for Boston this year, but it was clear that the club didn't view Frye as the long-term answer. With Lansing coming east in the trade, Frye had to figure he was about to become the everyday 2B for the Rockies. But he wound up sharing the job with Walker for a while, and then found that his share of the job began shrinking. Frye didn't play himself out of the lineup -- he continued to play good defense and get on base -- but Walker got very hot about three weeks after Frye arrived. After the season, Frye signed a one-year deal with the Blue Jays. Jeff Cirillo, 3b, age 30 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Col 546 190 34 1 18 98 84 5 69 2 79 5 3 .348 .423 .513 .936 119 Prorated Col 596 207 37 1 20 107 92 5 75 2 86 5 3 .348 .423 .513 .936 130 Actual Col 598 195 53 2 11 111 115 6 67 4 72 3 4 .326 .392 .477 .869 111Cirillo was my pre-season hunch pick to win the NL batting title because he had batted over .320 in each of his last two years in Milwaukee and figured to pick up another 30 points or so with the move to Coors Field. Well, he picked up a lot more than that, batting .403 in his home games. But he hit like a third-string catcher on the road -- .239 with 2 homeruns -- and that left him with season totals that were almost identical to his line with the Brewers the year before. Extreme home/road splits like this have led a few baseball writers to speculate that the Coors Field park factors are exaggerated. They argue that it may be difficult to adjust to normal conditions when the team goes on the road, so the road stats are depressed, making the home park look that much better by comparison. I'm not ready to buy that theory, but Cirillo may be based on his first season in Colorado. Aaron Ledesma, 3b, age 29 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Col 85 28 5 0 1 11 10 1 5 0 12 1 1 .329 .374 .424 .797 13 Prorated Col 40 13 2 0 0 5 5 0 2 0 6 0 0 .329 .374 .424 .797 6 Actual Col 40 9 2 0 0 4 3 1 2 0 9 0 0 .225 .279 .275 .554 3Despite a career batting average of .300, Ledesma entered the 2000 season as a 28-year-old with only 714 career atbats under his belt. The reason? Once you get past his batting average, there's not a lot there. He doesn't walk much, has almost no power, and doesn't run especially well. Nevertheless, he is a versatile defender who can play every infield position, and the Dodgers have signed him for 2001. Jeff Manto, 3b, age 35 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Col 62 17 3 0 5 13 13 0 13 0 15 0 0 .274 .400 .565 .965 15 Prorated Col 6 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 .274 .400 .565 .965 1 Actual Col 5 4 2 0 1 2 4 0 2 0 0 0 0 .800 .857 1.800 2.657 8Manto, who retired after the season, had a long and distinguished career, but most of it was in the high minors. He bounced around the majors for a decade but amassed only 713 career atbats. If the movie Bull Durham was being shot today, they might name the lead character Jeff Manto. From 1997 to 1999, Manto swatted 66 (!) homeruns in 599 atbats with AAA Buffalo, and he wound up his minor-league career with 243 career homers. He added 31 more at the big-league level and undoubtedly would have received more playing time if not for his .230 career average. Neifi Perez, ss, age 25 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Col 524 148 23 7 10 80 57 1 32 1 56 7 5 .282 .323 .410 .734 70 Prorated Col 644 182 28 9 12 98 70 1 39 1 69 9 6 .282 .323 .410 .734 86 Actual Col 651 187 39 11 10 92 71 0 30 6 63 3 6 .287 .314 .427 .741 85In his third season as the Rockies starting SS, Perez took home his first Gold Glove award. He needs to take a couple of big steps forward at the plate before he can be considered one of the top all-around shortstops in the league. Even with the help of the best hitter's park in baseball, his career OPS at home (.798) has been only a little above the league average, and his road output (.629) has been downright awful. Todd Hollandsworth, lf/rf/cf, age 27 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection LA 243 66 12 2 6 35 30 1 22 1 54 5 3 .272 .333 .412 .745 34 Prorated LA 266 72 13 2 7 38 33 1 24 1 59 5 3 .272 .333 .412 .745 37 Actual LA 261 61 12 0 8 42 24 1 30 2 61 11 4 .234 .314 .372 .686 32 Prorated Col 161 44 8 1 4 23 20 1 15 1 36 3 2 .272 .333 .412 .745 22 Actual Col 167 54 8 0 11 39 23 0 11 1 38 7 3 .323 .365 .569 .934 33 Prorated Tot 427 116 21 4 11 62 53 2 39 2 95 9 5 .272 .333 .412 .745 60 Actual Tot 428 115 20 0 19 81 47 1 41 3 99 18 7 .269 .333 .449 .782 64Like Todd Walker, Hollandsworth struggled early in the year then surged after being traded to Colorado. Unlike Walker, this Todd hit equally well at home and on the road for the Rockies. That probably doesn't mean much, since it represents only 77 atbats on the road. What likely means a lot more is the fact that the left-handed batting Hollandsworth rarely faces southpaws -- only 195 atbats in the past five years compared with 1443 against right-handers -- and was very ineffective against them last year. As a result of those recent struggles, it's not clear whether he'll get a shot at a full-time role even though his career totals show virtually no difference in his OPS against lefties and righties. Butch Huskey, lf, age 28 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Min 591 164 28 0 28 85 107 1 49 3 98 6 5 .277 .331 .467 .798 87 Prorated Min 223 62 11 0 11 32 40 0 19 1 37 2 2 .277 .331 .467 .798 33 Actual Min 215 48 13 0 5 22 27 2 25 1 49 0 2 .223 .306 .353 .660 23 Prorated Col 101 28 5 0 5 15 18 0 8 1 17 1 1 .277 .331 .467 .798 15 Actual Col 92 32 8 0 4 18 18 0 16 1 14 1 1 .348 .432 .565 .998 22 Prorated Tot 325 90 15 0 15 47 59 1 27 2 54 3 3 .277 .331 .467 .798 48 Actual Tot 307 80 21 0 9 40 45 2 41 2 63 1 3 .261 .346 .417 .762 44 Huskey is best known for his bat, but his career averages are right around the league averages. That doesn't bode well for his future, because he's not regarded as a good fielder. He'll be in camp with the Indians this spring, where he'll face a lot of competition in the outfield and at DH, so he's likely to be in a reserve role again. Terry Shumpert, lf/2b/3b/ss/1b, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Col 87 26 7 0 3 15 11 1 9 1 14 3 1 .299 .367 .483 .850 16 Prorated Col 264 79 21 0 9 45 33 3 27 3 42 9 3 .299 .367 .483 .850 49 Actual Col 263 68 11 7 9 52 40 6 28 1 40 8 4 .259 .340 .456 .796 43After a big 1999 -- .347 with 10 homers in about a half season -- Shumpert came back to earth last year. Again, Coors Field was a big part of the story, as Shumpert batted .308 at home but only .211 on the road, and seven of his nine homers came at altitude. Darren Bragg, lf, age 30 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Col 87 25 5 1 2 13 11 1 11 0 19 1 0 .287 .374 .437 .811 15 Prorated Col 147 42 8 2 3 22 19 2 19 0 32 2 0 .287 .374 .437 .811 25 Actual Col 149 33 7 1 3 16 21 0 17 1 41 4 1 .221 .296 .342 .638 16At his peak, Bragg was a scrappy, hustling player who provided above-average defense and enough offense to be a good fourth outfielder and occasional starter. But he tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in August of 1999 and hasn't yet shown that he can return to that level. He'll be in camp with the Mets next month, and even though they don't have a strong outfield, Bragg isn't likely to wind up with more than a reserve role on that team, if he makes the club at all. Tom Goodwin, cf, age 31 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Col 585 173 22 8 7 105 49 2 69 0 97 47 17 .296 .370 .397 .767 93 Prorated Col 330 97 12 5 4 59 28 1 39 0 55 26 10 .296 .370 .397 .767 52 Actual Col 317 86 8 8 5 65 47 1 50 2 76 39 7 .271 .368 .394 .763 55 Prorated LA 200 59 8 3 2 36 17 1 24 0 33 16 6 .296 .370 .397 .767 32 Actual LA 211 53 3 1 1 29 11 0 18 0 41 16 3 .251 .310 .289 .599 21 Prorated Tot 530 157 20 7 6 95 44 2 63 0 88 43 15 .296 .370 .397 .767 84 Actual Tot 528 139 11 9 6 94 58 1 68 2 117 55 10 .263 .346 .352 .698 75Well, he did steal a lot of bases. But that's about it. Goodwin has tremendous speed but has never been able to deploy it fully. He doesn't get a good jump on defense, so his range isn't anything special despite his ability to outrun the ball. And he's shown patience at the plate in only one of his 10 big-league seasons -- 1998 with Texas -- so he doesn't get to use his legs on the bases as much as he should, either. Why the Dodgers would give up Hollandsworth for this guy is beyond me. They must believe that raw speed automatically makes someone a great center fielder and leadoff hitter. They need both, but Goodwin is neither. Brian L. Hunter, cf/lf/rf, age 29 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Col 70 17 3 0 1 9 5 0 5 0 11 5 1 .243 .293 .329 .622 7 Prorated Col 211 51 9 0 3 27 15 0 15 0 33 15 3 .243 .293 .329 .622 22 Actual Col 200 55 4 1 1 36 13 1 21 0 31 15 3 .275 .347 .320 .667 25 Prorated Cin 45 11 2 0 1 6 3 0 3 0 7 3 1 .243 .293 .329 .622 5 Actual Cin 40 9 1 0 0 11 1 0 6 0 9 5 0 .225 .319 .250 .569 5 Prorated Tot 256 62 11 0 4 33 18 0 18 0 40 18 4 .243 .293 .329 .622 26 Actual Tot 240 64 5 1 1 47 14 1 27 0 40 20 3 .267 .342 .308 .650 30I could save some time by cutting-and-pasting my remarks about Tom Goodwin into this slot, but it wouldn't quite be accurate. It's true that Hunter shares Goodwin's inability to get on base enough to use his speed, but Hunter is actually worse than Goodwin at the plate. Hunter has had some very good years on defense, but last year wasn't one of them. The Phillies signed him to a one-year deal for 2001, though I have no idea where he's going to play in an outfield that already features Pat Burrell, Doug Glanville, and Bob Abreu. Juan Pierre, cf, age 22 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Actual Col 200 62 2 0 0 26 20 1 13 0 15 7 6 .310 .353 .320 .673 23Pierre, who hadn't played above A ball going into the season, inherited the center field job when Goodwin and Hunter failed at the plate and were traded away. His major-league batting line has the same basic shape as his minor-league one -- high batting average (never below .320 in the minors), not too many walks, and almost no power (one homer in 1305 atbats). Pierre averaged 70 steals per 600 atbats in the minors, so you can expect him to steal a bunch of bases once he learns the pitchers and catchers. Jeffrey Hammonds, rf/lf/cf, age 29 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Col 545 170 32 3 30 109 93 4 64 1 118 12 8 .312 .386 .547 .933 117 Prorated Col 449 140 26 2 25 90 77 3 53 1 97 10 7 .312 .386 .547 .933 96 Actual Col 454 152 24 2 20 94 106 5 44 4 83 14 7 .335 .395 .529 .924 94Once again, Hammonds was bitten by the injury bug. This was, in fact, his high-water mark for playing time; he'd never made it to 400 atbats before. The medical chart for 2000 includes entries for his hamstring (strained), left shoulder, root canal, flu, neck (stiff), and right shoulder (tendinitis). Hammonds brings a well-rounded game to the park when he's healthy, and Milwaukee has invested $21.75 million over the next three seasons in the hope that he'll pull a Paul Molitor and become an iron man in his thirties. Larry Walker, rf/lf, age 33 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Col 571 201 45 4 35 135 117 11 79 8 82 16 5 .352 .438 .629 1.066 160 Prorated Col 319 112 25 2 20 76 65 6 44 4 46 9 3 .352 .438 .629 1.066 89 Actual Col 314 97 21 7 9 64 51 9 46 4 40 5 5 .309 .409 .506 .915 64A .300/.400/.500 season is normally very good news, but not when you're Larry Walker and you've become accustomed to something more like .360/.450/.700. But Walker's left knee had bothered him for most of the 1999 season and he had arthroscopic surgery on the joint in September of that year. And then he was plagued by a stress fracture in his throwing elbow for much of the 2000 season. That injury forced him to move from RF to LF (shorter throws), took away most of his power, and ended his season six weeks early. When Walker had surgery to remove a bone spur and clean out some debris, it was the second time in 2½ years that he'd had the elbow cleaned out. Key pitchers The Colorado pitching staff was considerably better than expected, allowing 131 fewer runs than they had the year before. The starting rotation was steady but unspectacular. Pedro Astacio and Rolando Arrojo were solid, Brian Bohanon had a nice comeback season, and several others -- Kevin Jarvis, Brian Rose, Julian Tavarez -- provided some quality starts. But the real story was the bullpen. Adjust their relief ERA for the effects of the home park and it's clear that there was no better relief corps in the majors last year. Mike DeJean provided some good innings, Mike Myers and Gabe White were almost unhittable, Bobby Chouinard came on to pitch well in the second half, and Jose Jimenez made a very successful debut as the closer. Pedro Astacio, starter, age 30 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Col 5.24 32 32 13 13 0 218 245 33 74 198 .285 .814 Prorated Col 5.24 29 29 12 12 0 199 223 30 67 180 .285 .814 Actual Col 5.27 32 32 12 9 0 196 217 32 77 193 .281 .830Astacio's season began under the cloud of a domestic violence charge that fueled speculation that he might be deported. Despite that potential distraction and a couple of little injuries that cost him a start here and there, Astacio took his regular turn and delivered another solid season. He's been a model of consistency for eight years, averaging about 200 innings per full season and -- adjusting for his home parks -- posting a string of above-average performances. Rolando Arrojo, starter, age 31 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Col 6.15 32 32 8 14 0 183 222 29 74 151 .303 .877 Prorated Col 6.15 18 18 5 8 0 103 125 16 42 85 .303 .877 Actual Col 6.04 19 19 5 9 0 101 120 14 46 80 .299 .874 Prorated Bos 6.15 12 12 3 5 0 66 80 10 27 55 .303 .877 Actual Bos 5.05 13 13 5 2 0 71 67 10 22 44 .245 .730 Prorated Tot 6.15 30 30 7 13 0 170 206 27 69 140 .303 .877 Actual Tot 5.63 32 32 10 11 0 173 187 24 68 124 .277 .816Arrojo's stay in Colorado was brief. Acquired from Tampa Bay in a four-team trade in December, 1999, Arrojo was shipped off to Boston at the trading deadline. In return, the Rockies acquired two younger pitchers, Brian Rose and John Wasdin. Seems like a good trade for both teams -- the Sox had run out of patience with Rose, but he's still young and has a chance to give the Rockies as much or more than Arrojo would have. Brian Bohanon, starter, age 31 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Col 5.43 32 32 10 13 0 199 224 27 89 140 .287 .827 Prorated Col 5.43 28 28 9 11 0 171 193 23 77 121 .287 .827 Actual Col 4.68 34 26 12 10 0 177 181 24 79 98 .266 .776Bohanon bounced back nicely from a disappointing 1999 season, his first in Colorado after working in some pitcher-friendly parks the previous two years. This southpaw dominated opposing left-handed batters (.196 average, .604 OPS) and kept the ball on the ground. The Rockies appear to be stockpiling groundball pitchers in the hopes of countering the effects of their home park, and Bohanon fits that mold. Masato Yoshii, starter, age 35 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Col 6.73 32 32 8 14 0 183 227 37 68 124 .305 .916 Prorated Col 6.73 28 28 7 12 0 160 198 32 59 108 .305 .916 Actual Col 5.86 29 29 6 15 0 167 201 32 53 88 .306 .893A flyball pitcher who saw 22 of those fly balls leave the spacious confines of Coors Field in 99 innings at home, Yoshii saw his ERA rise by about a run and a half compared to his two seasons with the Mets. Next year is a bit of a question mark, as Yoshii had surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow. If he can bounce back as well as Bohanon did, the Rockies will be very happy. But Bohanon was coming off a bad season, so a rebound was quite possible regardless of health, while Yoshii's 2000 season was very consistent with his established level. As a result, I don't see as much potential for improvement. Scott Karl, starter, age 28 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Col 6.73 19 19 5 8 0 107 146 16 40 58 .329 .896 Prorated Col 6.73 12 12 3 5 0 69 94 10 26 37 .329 .896 Actual Col 7.68 17 9 2 3 0 66 95 14 33 29 .343 .985 Prorated Ana 6.73 4 4 1 2 0 23 31 3 9 12 .329 .896 Actual Ana 6.65 6 4 2 2 0 22 31 2 12 9 .337 .903 Prorated Tot 6.73 16 16 4 7 0 92 125 14 34 50 .329 .896 Actual Tot 7.42 23 13 4 5 0 87 126 16 45 38 .341 .964It's not clear why the Rockies thought Karl would succeed at Coors Field. This lefty put a lot of runners on base during his five years in Milwaukee, but managed to wriggle out of enough of those jams to keep his ERA near the league average. That's much harder to do in Denver's high-octane environment, and sure enough, he was rocked in his home games. Colorado released him, but he didn't far any better in a few starts with Anaheim, and he'll try again with San Diego this year. Kevin Jarvis, starter, age 30 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Col 10.06 9 0 0 1 0 17 26 5 6 11 .356 1.058 Prorated Col 10.06 56 0 0 6 0 106 162 31 37 69 .356 1.058 Actual Col 5.95 24 19 3 4 0 115 138 26 33 60 .300 .912 You can pretty much ignore Jarvis's projected stats because they're meaningless. He had missed all of 1998 and most of 1999 with a blood clot in his finger, so the projection was based on 68 bad innings in 1997 and 14 innings that were even worse in 1999. In other words, we had no idea whether he'd ever pitch again and, if he did, how well. Truth is, I still don't know what to make of his chances. He pitched reasonably well for the Rockies, considering the park, but he missed over a month with a back problem, and that's never a good sign. He'll be in camp with the Padres this spring. Brian Rose, starter, age 24ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Bos 5.73 11 11 3 4 0 60 69 11 19 34 .290 .844 Prorated Bos 5.73 10 10 3 4 0 54 62 10 17 31 .290 .844 Actual Bos 6.11 15 12 3 5 0 53 58 11 21 24 .274 .863 Prorated Col 5.73 12 12 3 4 0 66 77 12 21 38 .290 .844 Actual Col 5.51 12 12 4 5 0 64 72 10 30 40 .282 .809 Prorated Tot 5.73 22 22 6 8 0 120 139 22 38 69 .290 .844 Actual Tot 5.79 27 24 7 10 0 117 130 21 51 64 .278 .834Rose became known as a top prospect with a terrific Triple-A season (17-5, 3.02 ERA in a good park for hitters) as a 21-year-old in 1997. He has yet to taste much success in the big leagues, however, and Colorado was able to pick him up in the Arrojo trade. Despite some good starts with Colorado, it remains to be seen whether Rose -- a flyball pitcher without overpowering stuff -- can succeed in this environment. Julian Tavarez, reliever/starter, age 27 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Col 5.82 30 0 2 2 0 39 52 5 16 23 .329 .896 Prorated Col 5.82 88 0 6 6 0 114 153 15 47 68 .329 .896 Actual Col 4.43 51 12 11 5 1 120 124 11 53 62 .268 .770Tavarez, who had made only 12 career starts through 1999, was 'better' as a starter (3.80) than as a reliever (5.26) in 2000, but that probably has more to do with his opponents than his own performance. All twelve of his starts were against teams that finished 8th or worse in team offense, including two starts each against Philadelphia and Florida, the league's worst lineups. So it's fair to say that he wasn't quite as good as his record suggests, but it would be wrong to dismiss his performance altogether. Tavarez was 11-5 overall and posted an impressive ERA of 3.96 in Coors Field, so he was doing something right. Nevertheless, he is now a proud member of the Chicago Cubs, with whom he recently signed a two-year, $5 million contract. John Wasdin, reliever/spot starter, age 27 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Bos 3.89 40 0 4 3 0 72 70 11 22 49 .256 .752 Prorated Bos 3.89 26 0 3 2 0 47 46 7 15 32 .256 .752 Actual Bos 5.04 25 1 1 3 1 45 48 8 15 36 .273 .828 Prorated Col 3.89 21 0 2 2 0 37 36 6 11 25 .256 .752 Actual Col 5.80 14 3 0 3 0 36 42 6 9 35 .302 .842 Prorated Tot 3.89 47 0 5 4 0 84 82 13 26 57 .256 .752 Actual Tot 5.38 39 4 1 6 1 80 90 14 24 71 .286 .834Wasdin has always had a lot of trouble with the longball, so he seems like the world's worst candidate for a spot on the Rockies pitching staff. But he's still young and has never put a lot of runners on base, so he still has a chance to have a decent career as a long reliever. Stan Belinda, reliever, age 33 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Col 5.20 40 0 3 3 0 54 59 11 22 55 .280 .860 Prorated Col 5.20 28 0 2 2 0 37 41 8 15 38 .280 .860 Actual Col 7.07 46 0 1 3 1 36 39 10 17 40 .277 .961 Prorated Atl 5.20 9 0 1 1 0 12 13 2 5 12 .280 .860 Actual Atl 9.82 10 0 0 0 0 11 16 4 5 11 .348 1.168 Prorated Tot 5.20 37 0 3 3 0 49 54 10 20 50 .280 .860 Actual Tot 7.71 56 0 1 3 1 47 55 14 22 51 .294 1.012Unfortunately, this may be the end of the road for Belinda. Two years ago, he was diagnosed as being in the early stages of multiple sclerosis, and he's waged a courageous battle to prolong his career in the face of that illness. Colorado released him in late July, and when Belinda didn't fare any better with Atlanta, he left the team in early September to return home and ponder his retirement. As far as I know, he hasn't formally announced his retirement, but he hasn't signed with anyone for the coming season, either. Bobby Chouinard, reliever, age 28 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual Col 3.86 31 0 2 2 0 33 35 4 9 23 .273 .730Chouinard was charged with aggravated assault after pointing a gun at his wife in an argument on Christmas day, 1999. Before that, he had pitched quite well for the division-winning Diamondbacks, but that club didn't seem to want him back after his brush with the law, and Chouinard requested (and was granted) his release last spring so he could focus on his personal issues. I wasn't sure we would see him at all last season, but he signed a minor-league deal with the Rockies in June, was called up in mid-July, and did a very nice job out of the pen. In October, he pled guilty to the assault charge and will serve his one-year sentence three months at a time during the next four off-seasons. I'm assuming that this arrangement will allow him to pursue his career without any negative effect. Mike DeJean, reliever, age 29 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Col 5.40 13 0 1 1 0 17 22 2 7 9 .324 .890 Prorated Col 5.40 39 0 3 3 0 50 66 6 21 27 .324 .890 Actual Col 4.89 54 0 4 4 0 53 54 9 30 34 .269 .835After two sensational years out of the Rockies bullpen in 1997-98, DeJean's ERA shot up to 8.41 in 1999. So it was hard to know what to expect last year. He managed to cut his hits and homers allowed to a reasonable level, but he has now struggled with his control for two straight years. For the second year in a row, DeJean was 0-for-4 in save situations, dropping him to 4-for-15 in his career, so I don't expect to see him get too many more chances to close games. Still, he was a very effective member of a strong bullpen. Jerry Dipoto, reliever, age 32 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Col 4.14 70 0 4 3 26 72 75 8 31 59 .270 .766 Prorated Col 4.14 13 0 1 1 5 13 14 1 6 11 .270 .766 Actual Col 3.95 17 0 0 0 0 14 16 1 5 9 .314 .813Expected to be the Rockies closer, Dipoto began the year on the disabled list with a bulging disk in his neck. He came back to pitch reasonably well despite the injury, but it hadn't really healed, and he was forced to the sidelines within a few weeks. His season ended when he had surgery on that disk in early May. Mike Myers, reliever, age 31 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Col 6.25 70 0 2 3 0 45 57 10 20 42 .311 .923 Prorated Col 6.25 59 0 2 3 0 38 48 8 17 35 .311 .923 Actual Col 1.99 78 0 0 1 1 45 24 2 24 41 .160 .551The prototypical lefty specialist, Myers has always been near the league lead in appearances and far down the list in innings pitched, facing fewer than three batters per game in his career. His job is to get left-handed hitters out, and he has always been very good at it. But he was exceptional last year, holding enemy lefties to a .121 batting average and a .209 slugging average. Right-handed batters normally hit him pretty hard, but even they couldn't get to him this time around. As a result, Myers allowed only 9 of 64 inherited runners to score, the second-best rate in the league. Gabe White, reliever, age 28 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Cin 4.12 53 0 4 3 0 74 77 13 20 61 .266 .779 Prorated Cin 4.12 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 .266 .779 Actual Cin 18.00 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 1 2 .400 1.500 Prorated Col 4.12 54 0 4 3 0 76 78 13 20 62 .266 .779 Actual Col 2.17 67 0 11 2 5 83 62 5 14 82 .208 .558 Prorated Tot 4.12 55 0 4 3 0 77 80 13 21 63 .266 .779 Actual Tot 2.36 68 0 11 2 5 84 64 6 15 84 .211 .574Yet another excellent performance from a Rockies reliever. To hold opposing batters to a .208 average and an OPS of .558 while playing half his games in this park is downright amazing.White dominated both lefties and righties, he struck out almost six hitters for every man that he walked, and he had a two-month stretch (May 6 to July 6) when he didn't allow a single earned run in 25 outings. There's only blemish on his record -- he allowed 20 of 49 inherited runners to score, a rate that was worse than the league average. Jose Jimenez, closer, age 26 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Col 5.91 53 0 4 5 0 70 86 8 31 47 .308 .849 Prorated Col 5.91 50 0 4 5 0 66 81 8 29 44 .308 .849 Actual Col 3.18 72 0 5 2 24 71 63 4 28 44 .239 .642Jimenez inherited the closer job when Dipoto was lost to the team, and except for a rough stretch during Colorado's eleven-game losing streak in July, he came through in fine fashion. An extreme groundball pitcher, Jimenez kept the ball in the park and handled lefties and righties equally well. As a result, he converted 24 of 30 save chances and anchored a surprisingly good Rockies bullpen. Outlook The Rockies said goodbye to a lot of players after the season, but only a few represent a meaningful loss of talent. They'll miss the production that Jeffrey Hammonds provided when he was healthy, and Julian Tavarez and Kevin Jarvis gave them some good innings last year. But that's about it. The other guys who left are veteran role players (Darren Bragg, Jeff Frye, Butch Huskey) who can be replaced. The club spent a mountain of cash to add Mike Hampton ($121 million, 8 years) and Denny Neagle ($51.5 million, 5 years) to their starting rotation. They also shelled out some money to replace Hammonds with Ron Gant and Bragg with Roberto Kelly. And they picked up Ron Villone to add depth to the pitching staff. Leaving aside the question of whether it's smart to give any pitcher an 8-year deal, the Hampton signing was a terrific move. He's young, durable and an extreme groundball pitcher who doesn't give up a lot of homeruns. The park shouldn't hurt him too much. On the other hand, Neagle and Villone are flyball pitchers in their thirties who weren't all that good last year, and it's not clear how the team is helped by the addition of two more lefties to a staff that already has Hampton and Bohanon. So the starting rotation shapes up as Hampton, Pedro Astacio, Brian Bohanon, Neagle, and a fifth starter drawn from a group including Masato Yoshii, Brian Rose, and maybe Villone. The bullpen that was so good last year is intact. In fact, it will be even deeper if Jerry Dipoto returns to health. As strange as it sounds, the real question is whether this team is going to score enough runs, especially when they leave home. There's reason for optimism on that front -- Larry Walker and Jeff Cirillo should bounce back, Ben Petrick should provide more offense from the catcher position, and they'll have a full season from Todd Walker. It might be asking a lot to expect Todd Helton and the bullpen to be as good as they were last year, but if they can come close, and if the newcomers can adapt to mountain ball reasonably quickly, the Rockies should be in the thick of the NL West race this year. Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond Mind, Inc. All rights reserved. Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights reserved. | Diamond Mind reports | ||||