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| Friday, February 2 | |||||
| Season in review: Detroit Tigers Diamond Mind Baseball | |||||
Diamond Mind is a highly-realistic strategy-oriented computer baseball game. Founder Tom Tippett and a team of top baseball analysts -- Gary Gillette, Stuart Shea and Zack Scott -- are presenting detailed reviews of each team's performance in 2000 (with projected and actual statistics for all key players) along with their thoughts about the outlook for the 2001 season.
This article takes a look at how the Detroit Tigers did in the 2000 season
relative to preseason expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page at the Diamond Mind web site.
Capsule summaryProjected Actual Runs for 844 823 Runs allowed 873 827 Run Margin -29 -4 Wins 79 79 Pythagorean wins 78 81 Placement 2nd 3rdAll the celebration and hoopla attending the first season in new Comerica Park didn't disguise the bitter taste left in Motown over the Tigers' disappointing 2000 season. After a big increase in payroll, most of the team's partisans expected the Bengals to return to contending status in a weak AL Central division. However, despite the fall of perennial division champ Cleveland, Detroit couldn't even mount a serious challenge for the AL Wild Card, much less the AL Central title. Most of the responsibility for 2000 has been laid at the doorstep of expensive former AL MVP Juan Gonzalez. Certainly, Gonzo deserves a heaping helping of blame for his terrible season, in which he managed to touch all the bases that aging, disgruntled superstars frequently do: first unhappy, then unhealthy, and ultimately unproductive, Gonzalez unwisely spurned a reported $130 million or so offer from Detroit early in 2000, apparently needing more than that mind-boggling sum to sate his enormous ego. A hot July-August streak made his overall numbers look a lot better, but his back problems, his defensive limitations, and his unsatisfied nature do not bode well for his future performance. Key position players The Detroit attack was slightly less productive than expected last year, mostly because the deficit caused by Gonzalez was largely made up by the return to productivity of Bobby Higginson. The Tigers tried mightily to deal Higginson early in the season, but no one would pay a decent price for their popular left fielder after two sub-par campaigns. By the end of the season, though, the failure to deal Higginson could be seen as a blessing in disguise. Brad Ausmus, c, age 31 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 523 141 23 5 12 75 61 11 62 5 79 11 6 .270 .358 .402 .760 75 Prorated Det 526 142 23 5 12 76 61 11 62 5 80 11 6 .270 .358 .402 .760 75 Actual Det 523 139 25 3 7 75 51 6 69 0 79 11 5 .266 .357 .365 .722 69Although Ausmus doesn't rank among the elite of offensive catchers, he has added bat skills. Unlike most of his teammates, Ausmus did not suffer in the power categories in Comerica Park (11 2B, two 3B, three HR), but hit poorly on the road (.245, four homers). He did clear previous bests in runs, hits, and walks and hit .321 against southpaws, a rate well above his usual level. As usual, Ausmus hit much better in the second half. Behind the plate, he threw out more than 43 percent of enemy basestealers last year, the top rate in the American League. Following the season, Ausmus was shipped back to Houston following two years in Detroit. He should find Enron Field to his liking, and the Astros believe that Ausmus will help turn their pitching staff around. At age 31, the never-disabled, athletic, and durable receiver should enjoy a solid campaign. He started 140 games last season for the Tigers, but ought to get a break in Houston. Javier Cardona, c, age 24 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 69 17 3 0 3 10 12 1 5 0 11 0 0 .246 .307 .420 .727 9 Prorated Det 39 10 2 0 2 6 7 1 3 0 6 0 0 .246 .307 .420 .727 5 Actual Det 40 7 1 0 1 1 2 1 0 0 9 0 0 .175 .190 .275 .465 2Cardona wasn't much of a prospect until 1998, when he started to hit at Double-A Jacksonville. Called up to Detroit twice last season when injuries struck other players, he started twelve times. He hit .275 with 11 homers in 218 at-bats at Triple-A and is a candidate for backup duty with the injury-prone Mitch Meluskey and Robert Fick as catchers. Neither of them have defensive skills as good as Cardona's. Tony Clark, 1b, age 28 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 547 154 29 0 31 80 97 5 65 6 120 1 1 .282 .361 .505 .866 99 Prorated Det 205 58 11 0 12 30 36 2 24 2 45 0 0 .282 .361 .505 .866 37 Actual Det 208 57 14 0 13 32 37 0 24 2 51 0 0 .274 .349 .529 .878 35Clark was disabled three separate times in 2000 because of ribcage and back problems. After a typically slow April (.115), Clark hit at expected levels despite his injuries, even though many believe that Clark is too streaky and just doesn't hit good pitching very well. He does strike out often, although that hasn't stopped him from posting impressive power numbers. Assuming he is healthy for 2001, "Tony the Tiger" should enjoy another solid offensive season. If he isn't healthy, watch for Robert Fick and Eric Munson to battle for Clark's job. It's possible that the Tigers could convert Clark to DH duty if they think it will significantly reduce his risk of injury. Robert Fick, 1b/c, age 26 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 158 41 7 1 6 26 29 1 18 1 23 2 1 .259 .335 .430 .766 23 Prorated Det 166 43 7 1 6 27 30 1 19 1 24 2 1 .259 .335 .430 .766 25 Actual Det 163 41 7 2 3 18 22 1 22 2 39 2 1 .252 .340 .374 .715 22Fick's only tool is his bat. He has no speed, no defensive position, and questionable self-control on the field. He has hit extremely well in the minors and, while he didn't produce the expected power for Detroit, ought to help out as a spare catcher/DH/first baseman/pinch-hitter. Fick is too old now to enjoy a long career as a regular, and his fielding skills are so poor that he'll have to hit bucketloads to land at first base. He batted just .194 in 31 at-bats against southpaws last year, making it much more likely that he'll be platooned in the future. Gregg Jefferies, 1b, age 32 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 71 18 3 0 2 9 7 1 6 1 5 1 1 .254 .316 .380 .697 8 Prorated Det 144 36 6 0 4 18 14 2 12 2 10 2 2 .254 .316 .380 .697 17 Actual Det 142 39 8 0 2 18 14 0 16 1 10 0 2 .275 .344 .373 .717 17Jefferies has retired. Last season he did exactly what he's always done -- hit singles and take a few walks. For various reasons, he was never the player that his minor league performance led most to believe he would be, but he still finished up his career with 1,593 hits (126 of them homers) and 196 stolen bases. That's not too bad. Hal Morris, 1b, age 35 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Cin 95 27 6 0 1 11 10 0 8 1 13 0 0 .284 .337 .379 .715 12 Prorated Cin 71 20 4 0 1 8 7 0 6 1 10 0 0 .284 .337 .379 .715 9 Actual Cin 63 14 2 1 2 9 6 1 12 3 10 0 0 .222 .351 .381 .732 9 Prorated Det 114 32 7 0 1 13 12 0 10 1 16 0 0 .284 .337 .379 .715 14 Actual Det 106 33 7 0 1 15 8 0 19 1 16 0 0 .311 .416 .406 .822 19 Prorated Tot 185 52 12 0 2 21 19 0 16 2 25 0 0 .284 .337 .379 .715 23 Actual Tot 169 47 9 1 3 24 14 1 31 4 26 0 0 .278 .391 .396 .788 27It's hard to tell exactly why the Tigers, swimming in lefthanded-hitting first basemen, wanted Morris when they acquired him last July. He is a solid singles hitter who walked far more often last year than could have been expected from his previous performance. He did miss nearly a month of action with a fractured finger, but he should land on someone's roster in 2001 due to his consistency and ability to hit right-handers off the bench. Dusty Allen, 1b, age 27 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SD 66 13 3 0 2 8 10 0 9 0 17 0 0 .197 .293 .333 .627 7 Prorated SD 12 2 1 0 0 1 2 0 2 0 3 0 0 .197 .293 .333 .627 1 Actual SD 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 5 0 0 0.000 .143 0.000 .143 0 Prorated Det 16 3 1 0 0 2 2 0 2 0 4 0 0 .197 .293 .333 .627 2 Actual Det 16 7 2 0 2 5 2 0 2 0 7 0 0 .438 .500 .938 1.438 8 Prorated Tot 28 6 1 0 1 3 4 0 4 0 7 0 0 .197 .293 .333 .627 3 Actual Tot 28 7 2 0 2 5 2 0 4 0 12 0 0 .250 .344 .536 .879 5After starting the season hitless in nine games for San Diego, Allen went to the Tigers in a July 17 trade for former 3B prospect Gabe Alvarez. Allen, a righty-swinging line-drive hitter, has little speed or defensive ability. He did well in limited at-bats for the Tigers and could battle for a bench job in 2001. However, the Tigers are stacked with first base candidates, and Allen's penchant for striking out and his mediocre defense in the pasture don't help. Eric Munson, 1b, age 22 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Actual Det 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0The Tigers' first-round pick in 1999 hit .252 in 98 games at Double-A Jacksonville with 15 home runs. He missed the last month of the year with a spinal fracture, which (fortunately) isn't as serious as it sounds. His 2000 performance is a far cry from what his impressive tools might suggest; with Fick and Clark in the picture in Detroit, Munson ought to see everyday action at Triple-A Toledo. Damion Easley, 2b, age 30 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 533 141 32 1 21 81 73 16 50 2 108 13 4 .265 .343 .447 .790 83 Prorated Det 472 125 28 1 19 72 65 14 44 2 96 12 4 .265 .343 .447 .790 74 Actual Det 464 120 27 2 14 76 58 11 55 1 79 13 4 .259 .350 .416 .766 70Easley was shelved for two weeks in April with a strained ribcage. When he returned, he hit poorly before going back to the sidelines for a month on May 9 with a fractured right wrist. However, when Easley returned to action in June, he began to hit. He smacked five homers in July and then batted .327 with four dingers in August. Easley has lost some of his speed but is still a productive everyday second baseman. He made just six errors in 615 chances (.990) to lead AL second baseman in fielding average and has good arm strength and range. Jose Macias, 2b, age 26 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 69 15 2 1 0 7 6 0 5 0 8 1 1 .217 .270 .275 .546 5 Prorated Det 180 39 5 3 0 18 16 0 13 0 21 3 3 .217 .270 .275 .546 13 Actual Det 173 44 3 5 2 25 24 1 18 0 24 2 0 .254 .328 .364 .692 22The switch-hitting utility infielder had two separate stints with the Tigers, getting more action than expected because of Easley's injuries. He hit .290 in May and then .286 in August after his second recall, playing five positions for Detroit. However, a relative lack of experience at shortstop will hurt his chances to win a job on a major league roster, because he won't hit enough to start at any position. Dean Palmer, 3b, age 31 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 567 148 27 1 34 85 100 7 55 2 140 3 2 .261 .331 .492 .823 91 Prorated Det 539 141 26 1 32 81 95 7 52 2 133 3 2 .261 .331 .492 .823 87 Actual Det 524 134 22 2 29 73 102 4 66 2 146 4 2 .256 .338 .471 .809 87Palmer's raw power is as good as anyone's in the game. However, making contact has always been a problem for him. He is a solid producer who has knocked in over 100 runs in each of the last three seasons. Unfortunately, his average has dropped from .278 to .263 to .256 from 1998-2000, and Palmer must show this year that he is not entering a serious decline phase. An OPS of .809 for a power hitter at a power position plainly isn't good enough, and it wasn't due to his new digs, either: Palmer actually hit better on the road than at home in 2000. He made 23 errors last year, most of them on wild throws; his arm is not always as accurate as it should be. Combine that tendency with range that is well below average, and Palmer is in a bit of trouble. Shane Halter, 3b, age 30 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 66 15 3 0 0 8 4 0 7 0 12 2 2 .227 .301 .273 .574 6 Prorated Det 233 53 11 0 0 28 14 0 25 0 42 7 7 .227 .301 .273 .574 20 Actual Det 238 62 12 2 3 26 27 1 14 0 49 5 2 .261 .302 .366 .668 26In 2000, for the first time, Halter spent an entire season on a big-league roster. This wasn't expected; the Tigers had several utility candidates in camp before they claimed Halter on waivers from the Mets on March 13. Halter quickly impressed manager Phil Garner with his drive and ability to play the key infield spots. In fact, Halter played every position on the field on October 1, when Garner allowed him to roam the diamond on the season's last day. Halter is helpful due to his defensive versatility. Gabe Alvarez, 3b, age 26 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 66 16 3 0 3 9 10 1 7 0 14 0 0 .242 .320 .424 .744 9 Prorated Det 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .242 .320 .424 .744 0 Actual Det 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 1 0.000 .667 0.000 .667 0 Prorated SD 12 3 1 0 1 2 2 0 1 0 3 0 0 .242 .320 .424 .744 2 Actual SD 13 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 .154 .214 .231 .445 1 Prorated Tot 15 4 1 0 1 2 2 0 2 0 3 0 0 .242 .320 .424 .744 2 Actual Tot 14 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 2 0 1 .143 .294 .214 .508 1 While Alvarez twice hit 20 homers at Triple-A, he couldn't live down his disappointing 1998 performance in Detroit (.231, five homers in 58 games). The Padres acquired him last July for Dusty Allen, but only gave him 13 at-bats. Alvarez has some punch, but he appears to be not much more than a Triple-A player. He'll be in camp with the Reds this spring. Deivi Cruz, ss, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 534 145 32 2 12 65 61 4 21 0 64 2 3 .272 .302 .406 .708 63 Prorated Det 572 155 34 2 13 70 65 4 23 0 69 2 3 .272 .302 .406 .708 67 Actual Det 583 176 46 5 10 68 82 4 13 2 43 1 4 .302 .318 .449 .767 73While Cruz' unwillingness to take a walk is teeth-grinding, he does some things very well with the bat -- just look at his RBI count or his doubles total, which ranked third in the AL. Cruz makes excellent contact and has become a far better offensive producer than anyone could have anticipated, even though he lost his speed fairly early in his career. Given his shortstop play, his bat is a great bonus. Scouts refer to Cruz as a "pitcher's friend" because of his sure hands (.982 fielding percentage), decent range, and strong arm. How many players in history have hit three times as many doubles as they have drawn walks? Not many, at least among players with a minimum of 400 atbats in a season. It happened 22 times during the 1800s and the dead-ball era, when walks were very scarce, but only five times since then -- Virgil Stallcup (28/9 in 1949), Carlos Baerga (32/10 in 1994), Shawon Dunston (30/10 in 1995), Mariano Duncan (34/9 in 1996), and Cruz last year. Bobby Higginson, lf, age 29 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 583 155 30 2 23 86 81 4 75 2 91 4 4 .266 .352 .443 .794 93 Prorated Det 595 158 31 2 23 88 83 4 77 2 93 4 4 .266 .352 .443 .794 95 Actual Det 597 179 44 4 30 104 102 2 74 6 99 15 3 .300 .377 .538 .915 127Higginson had another excellent season for the Tigers, re-establishing himself as a valuable player when his awful 1999 season had seriously damaged his reputation. Higginson has a very good arm (a major-league best 19 outfield assists), a terrific power bat, good on-base ability, and even some speed. He is solid against both lefties and righties and has a .281 career average. Like his teammates, Higginson struggled to hit for power at Comerica (13 homers) but did hit for average (.333) there, taking advantage of the large outfield dimensions. Juan Encarnacion, cf, age 24 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 545 143 29 6 18 76 75 11 27 1 114 31 10 .262 .308 .437 .745 72 Prorated Det 546 143 29 6 18 76 75 11 27 1 114 31 10 .262 .308 .437 .745 72 Actual Det 547 158 25 6 14 75 72 7 29 1 90 16 4 .289 .330 .433 .764 77Despite being hurt by his new ballpark (.266, four homers) Encarnacion made big strides in 2000. He doubled his walk total (only to 29, but it's a start) and sliced his strikeouts. He improved his batting average by 34 points and his on-base percentage by 43. Encarnacion continues to frustrate with his willingness to hack at bad pitches, and his drop in steals from 33 to 16 was troublesome. Though he still has terrific speed, he has not seemed to improve his baserunning instincts. Defensively, he has range and arm strength, but the Tigers feel that he is better in right field than in center. Encarnacion is a developing story. Nobody knows the ending, although his gradual improvement is promising. Two other young Latin outfielders, like Encarnacion born in 1976, provide an interesting contrast. World-class superstar Vladimir Guerrero of the Expos is just one month older. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay part-timer Jose Guillen, who had nearly identical on-base and slugging numbers to Encarnacion in 2000 but is viewed as a tremendous disappointment, is actually two months younger. Juan Gonzalez, rf, age 30 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 580 179 35 1 49 107 132 5 52 7 115 1 1 .309 .364 .626 .990 130 Prorated Det 444 137 27 1 38 82 101 4 40 5 88 1 1 .309 .364 .626 .990 100 Actual Det 461 133 30 2 22 69 67 2 32 3 84 1 2 .289 .337 .505 .842 74The one-year "Gonzo in Detroit" experiment did not take, either for the sore-backed slugger or the Tigers. When Gonzalez was in peak health (late July and all of August), he was outstanding, hitting .325 with 19 RBI in August after batting .486 in 35 July at-bats. However, over the rest of the season, his perfomance ranged from mediocre to sub-par. Gonzalez' lack of mobility on the bases and in the field made his 41-point drop in on-base percentage and huge drop in power all the more intolerable. Clearly, the new ballyard in Detroit damaged Gonzalez' performance. He batted just .267 with eight homers in Comerica Park. Signing a relatively inexpensive deal with the Indians for 2001, Gonzalez will have every opportunity to rescue his fading reputation as a run producer. And he'll have no excuses about hitting in an unfriendly environment. Rich Becker, rf, age 28 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Oak 570 144 22 3 15 88 63 5 111 1 175 15 3 .253 .378 .381 .759 90 Prorated Oak 49 12 2 0 1 8 5 0 9 0 15 1 0 .253 .378 .381 .759 8 Actual Oak 47 11 2 0 1 11 5 1 11 0 17 1 0 .234 .390 .340 .730 7 Prorated Det 245 62 9 1 6 38 27 2 48 0 75 6 1 .253 .378 .381 .759 39 Actual Det 238 58 12 0 7 48 34 0 56 0 70 1 2 .244 .383 .382 .765 41 Prorated Tot 294 74 11 2 8 45 33 3 57 1 90 8 2 .253 .378 .381 .759 47 Actual Tot 285 69 14 0 8 59 39 1 67 0 87 2 2 .242 .384 .375 .759 48The things Becker does well are important. He gets on base and can play all three outfield positions. Nonetheless, his current status as a fourth outfielder, viewed in relation to what he was supposed to be when younger -- one of the league's top leadoff hitters -- tends to diminish Becker's accomplishments. His speed never really came back after he tore a knee ligament in 1994, and his penchant for striking out tends to wear on his employers' patience. However, it's instructive to note that when Becker batted leadoff last year, he had a .379 on-base percentage in 179 plate appearances. He's with Florida now. Karim Garcia, rf, age 24 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 132 30 4 1 7 18 19 0 11 1 31 2 2 .227 .285 .432 .717 16 Prorated Det 16 4 0 0 1 2 2 0 1 0 4 0 0 .227 .285 .432 .717 2 Actual Det 17 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 .176 .176 .176 .353 0 Prorated Bal 15 3 0 0 1 2 2 0 1 0 3 0 0 .227 .285 .432 .717 2 Actual Bal 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 Prorated Tot 30 7 1 0 2 4 4 0 3 0 7 0 0 .227 .285 .432 .717 4 Actual Tot 33 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 .091 .091 .091 .182 0A few years ago, Garcia was a power prospect. Now he's just looking for a place to play, and he isn't likely to ever find a regular one in the big leagues at this rate. His next attempt will be in Cleveland this spring. Wendell Magee, rf, age 27 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 68 18 4 0 3 10 9 0 6 0 13 1 1 .265 .320 .456 .776 9 Prorated Det 180 48 11 0 8 26 24 0 16 0 34 3 3 .265 .320 .456 .776 25 Actual Det 186 51 4 2 7 31 31 0 10 0 28 1 0 .274 .310 .430 .740 23Magee has plenty of physical talent, but has never mastered the strike zone enough to utilize his gifts at the plate. However, he did show some offensive growth in 2000, and played errorless ball in the outfield. He deserves a job in the majors as a fifth outfielder, although he'll be fighting hard for playing time this spring. Billy McMillon, dh, age 28 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 66 16 4 0 2 11 9 1 7 0 12 1 0 .242 .320 .394 .714 9 Prorated Det 132 32 8 0 4 22 18 2 14 0 24 2 0 .242 .320 .394 .714 18 Actual Det 123 37 7 1 4 20 24 1 19 0 19 1 0 .301 .388 .472 .859 25Injuries to other players gave McMillon unexpected playing time in 2000, and when given a chance, he performed the way sabermetricians all over the country have always claimed he would. McMillon is a multi-skilled offensive player, but it is unlikely that he can continue to hit this well with continued exposure. Luis Polonia, dh, age 35 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 630 186 31 7 15 77 62 3 32 1 76 31 13 .295 .331 .438 .769 91 Prorated Det 281 83 14 3 7 34 28 1 14 0 34 14 6 .295 .331 .438 .769 41 Actual Det 267 73 10 5 6 37 25 1 22 1 25 8 5 .273 .325 .416 .741 37 Prorated NYA 80 24 4 1 2 10 8 0 4 0 10 4 2 .295 .331 .438 .769 12 Actual NYA 77 22 4 0 1 11 5 0 7 0 7 4 2 .286 .341 .377 .718 10 Actual Tot 344 95 14 5 7 48 30 1 29 1 32 12 7 .276 .329 .407 .736 47Polonia continues to perform to (low) expectations. He can hit for average and still runs fairly well, but lacks power, on-base skills, or defensive ability. For teams that need left-handed hitting bench help, Polonia is a reasonable stopgap. He will continue his vagabond path in 2001. Key pitchers Detroit's mound corps looked deceptively good in 2000 due to the positive effect on the pitchers' stats caused by Comerica Park. Allowing for that element, the Tigers had a below par staff that will be hurt by the loss of Doug Brocail and Nelson Cruz to Houston. Dave Mlicki was certainly expected to do better than his bloated 5.58 ERA after signing a multiyear deal, though the team lucked out by getting a surprising performance out of flutterballer Steve W. Sparks in the second half. Closer Todd Jones turned in the best year of his career save-wise, but he was not a truly dominating pitcher despite all the S's he posted in 2000. Dave Mlicki, starter, age 32 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Det 5.02 32 32 8 11 0 190 205 29 70 117 .277 .804 Prorated Det 5.02 21 21 5 7 0 125 135 19 46 77 .277 .804 Actual Det 5.58 24 21 6 11 0 119 143 17 44 57 .291 .820Mlicki pitched worse than expected last year, losing his first five starts and never really getting untracked except for a short streak in July. Mlicki pitched badly both in Comerica (3-8, 5.50) and on the road (3-3, 5.69). At one time a strikeout pitcher, he no longer has the hard curve or good four-seam fastball needed to set up and put away hitters, and as a result allows far too many balls to be put into play. On a better team, Mlicki would be a long reliever, and his best season (1996) was spent with the Mets in that very capacity. Brian Moehler, starter, age 28 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Det 4.55 32 32 10 12 0 196 210 25 58 107 .277 .766 Prorated Det 4.55 30 30 9 11 0 182 196 23 54 100 .277 .766 Actual Det 4.50 29 29 12 9 0 178 222 20 40 103 .305 .805Despite missing time last season due to an emergency appendectomy, Moehler enjoyed another solid season as the Tigers' top starter. A typically poor July and an atypically bad September kept his 2000 totals from being better. Moehler's performance wasn't as good as his raw numbers would indicate; on the road, he had a 3-6 mark and a 4.93 ERA, although he allowed 11 of his 20 homers at spacious Comerica Park. Like most Tigers pitchers, he wouldn't hold as critical a role on a better club, but a strong-armed starter with good control and a durable physique is valuable on anyone's staff. Hideo Nomo, starter, age 31 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Det 4.86 32 32 10 13 0 202 198 34 105 192 .257 .800 Prorated Det 4.86 30 30 9 12 0 186 183 31 97 177 .257 .800 Actual Det 4.74 32 31 8 12 0 190 191 31 89 181 .263 .795Still competitive and still possessing a baffling split-finger strikeout pitch, Nomo has settled into a new, albeit less glamorous, role as a peripatetic rotation-filler. His ERA at Comerica was 0.70 lower than on the road, indicating that Nomo's mediocre 2000 mark may go up in 2001. At least he was able to take his turn most every time out, leading the club in starts and strikeouts and finishing second to Jeff Weaver in innings. Just 2-7 on July 1, Nomo pitched very well in September to salvage his season. He ended up sixth in the AL in whiffs, but also walked too many for comfort and allowed 31 homers, fifth-most in the loop. Nomo has inked with the Red Sox for 2001 and will no doubt pitch 180-200 innings if healthy. Jeff Weaver, starter, age 23 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Det 4.53 27 27 8 10 0 163 164 23 52 114 .263 .767 Prorated Det 4.53 33 33 10 12 0 197 198 28 63 138 .263 .767 Actual Det 4.32 31 30 11 15 0 200 205 26 52 136 .267 .754Weaver enjoyed an impressive campaign in 2000, leading the staff in innings in just his second big-league season. He has established that he can throw strikes and, with 15 hit batsmen, indicated that he is not afraid to throw inside. Weaver pitches very poorly in midsummer, doing his best work early and late when the weather is cool. This pattern is not uncommon with sinkerballers; a hard sinking fastball is tougher on hitters in cold weather. Despite his sinker, Weaver still allows too many home runs; he needs to sharpen his curve and further develop his only-fair change-up. The raw material is there. Whether the Tigers can refine Weaver's ability is the only question. Steve W. Sparks, starter, age 34 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Phi 5.09 3 3 1 1 0 18 18 2 8 11 .269 .769 Prorated Det 5.09 17 17 6 6 0 101 103 11 46 63 .269 .769 Actual Det 4.07 20 15 7 5 1 104 108 7 29 53 .263 .713The veteran knuckleballer signed a Triple-A deal with the Tigers in March and, after 16 appearances at Toledo, got the call to Motown on June 20. He joined the starting rotation in July and remained there until season's end. Sparks pitched with much better control than he had shown in previous big-league trials and was a spectacular 5-0, 1.69 in August. Still, counting on a 35-year-old flutterball flinger to prop up your rotation doesn't say much for the other pitchers on your staff. It's unlikely that Sparks really has turned a corner, but we'll almost certainly find out since the Tigers aren't awash in options. Willie Blair, reliever / starter, age 34 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Det 5.95 34 4 3 6 0 85 98 17 30 47 .291 .863 Prorated Det 5.95 61 7 5 11 0 152 176 31 54 84 .291 .863 Actual Det 4.88 47 17 10 6 0 157 185 20 35 74 .296 .799 Blair's occasional good patches have kept him in the majors despite a 59-82 lifetime record. 2000 was one of his high points, as he rejoined the Tigers, for whom he had reached his peak (16-8 in 1997). Even with a 10-6 record, however, Blair's ERA on the road was 5.54. There's no way that Blair would have gotten 17 starts on a good team; however, he is valuable due to his willingness and ability to take the ball whenever he's asked. He also won't walk the bases full, though his control is no longer as sharp as it once was. Dave Borkowski, starter, age 23ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Det 5.60 3 3 1 1 0 18 19 3 7 10 .279 .807 Prorated Det 5.60 1 1 0 0 0 8 8 1 3 4 .279 .807 Actual Det 21.94 2 1 0 1 0 5 11 2 7 1 .423 1.452Borkowski underwent surgery to repair bone chips in his elbow in May. He ended the season making five rehab starts at Class A without distinguishing himself. At 24, Borkowski has time to return from his injuries, but despite a good arm, he's never been truly effective since a 15-3 season at Class A West Michigan in 1997. Adam Bernero, reliever / starter, age 23 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual Det 4.19 12 4 0 1 0 34 33 3 13 20 .270 .740A non-drafted free agent signed in 1999, Bernero made it to the majors in his second pro season with just 32 minor league starts (17 in Double- and Triple-A) under his belt. He enters 2001 with a chance to make the rotation. There is concern that Bernero, as finesse pitcher who depends on good control, will be hit much harder with increased exposure. The Tigers reportedly tried to include Bernero in several off-season deals, suggesting that they don't see him as an important piece of their future. Mark Johnson, reliever / starter, age 25 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Det 7.69 27 4 2 5 0 50 68 12 28 28 .327 .985 Prorated Det 7.69 13 2 1 2 0 24 33 6 13 13 .327 .985 Actual Det 7.50 9 3 0 1 0 24 25 3 16 11 .266 .823Johnson is already with his fourth pro organization despite playing just four seasons in pro ball. A Rule 5 pick from the Yankees in December 1999, Johnson made Detroit's staff in spring training but was disabled for five weeks with a back injury. After pitching poorly for the Tigers in a handful of games, he was released in June then re-signed to a Triple-A deal by the Tigers. He went 2-11, 6.57 at Toledo. Nelson Cruz, reliever, age 27 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Det 5.71 11 0 1 1 0 17 20 3 6 12 .294 .855 Prorated Det 5.71 25 0 2 2 0 39 45 7 13 27 .294 .855 Actual Det 3.07 27 0 5 2 0 41 39 4 13 34 .253 .703Cruz exceeded expectations last year after the Tigers purchased him from Toledo in late June. A sinker/slider pitcher who cuts his fastball to get lefties out, Cruz could get starting duty this year for the Astros, who acquired him in December. However, he has only occasionally pitched effectively as a starter in the high minors. Matt Anderson, reliever, age 23 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Det 4.55 23 0 2 2 0 30 27 5 23 26 .243 .814 Prorated Det 4.55 54 0 5 5 0 70 63 12 54 61 .243 .814 Actual Det 4.72 69 0 3 2 1 74 61 8 45 71 .228 .700The hard-throwing righty paced the Tigers in appearances in 2000, his first full big-league season. Anderson held left-handed batters to a sorry .200 average, and righties didn't hit him that much better. While bad mechanics still result in too many walks, control on his high-90s fastball and darting slider has improved to tolerable levels. Improvement of his currently poor change-up would add a terrific extra dimension to his game. The streakiness of a young, hard thrower is reflected in the fact that Anderson allowed runs in only 21 of his 69 appearances, but in eight of them was tagged for three runs or more. The Tigers believe that with another year of setup work, and some improvement in his delivery, he will be ready to take on the closer's job. Doug Brocail, reliever, age 33 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Det 2.81 70 0 7 3 3 102 84 10 36 90 .225 .645 Prorated Det 2.81 37 0 4 2 2 54 44 5 19 47 .225 .645 Actual Det 4.09 49 0 5 4 0 51 57 5 14 41 .285 .790Brocail, a quality setup pitcher whose control has improved, was dealt to Houston over the winter. His absence means that Matt Anderson must step up and claim the eighth inning in order for the Tigers to contend. When Brocail is at his best, his sinking fastball and slider induce hitters to pound the ball into the ground and his curve and changeup keep them off balance. Some scouts wonder why Brocail has never been allowed an extended chance to close games; it may have something to do with his lack of a four-seam fastball, the marquee pitch for many of the best major league closers. Allen McDill, reliever, age 28 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Det 6.19 19 0 1 1 0 16 21 4 8 14 .323 1.000 Prorated Det 6.19 11 0 1 1 0 9 12 2 5 8 .323 1.000 Actual Det 7.20 13 0 0 0 0 10 13 2 1 7 .317 .959The well-traveled southpaw did nothing in 2000 to convince the Tigers to keep him around. C.J. Nitkowski, reliever, age 27 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Det 4.35 32 32 10 10 0 192 184 26 87 147 .254 .757 Prorated Det 4.35 19 19 6 6 0 115 110 16 52 88 .254 .757 Actual Det 5.25 67 11 4 9 0 110 124 13 49 81 .286 .802After winning a job in the rotation out of spring training, Nitkowski was exiled to the bullpen in late May after compiling a 2-7 mark. He allowed four or more earned runs in eight of his 11 starts. With better stuff than most lefties but middling command, Nitkowski nibbles too often for comfort. He shut down lefty batters at a .218 clip, indicating that Nitkowski's ultimate value may be as a situational southpaw since he always seems to get bombed when promoted to starting. Danny Patterson, reliever, age 29 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Det 4.24 53 0 4 4 0 74 79 9 24 53 .274 .780 Prorated Det 4.24 41 0 3 3 0 57 61 7 18 41 .274 .780 Actual Det 3.97 58 0 5 1 0 57 69 4 14 29 .309 .770Patterson has become an extreme ground ball pitcher, using his bizarre "Vulcan Split" (held between the third and fourth fingers) to induce worm-killers. His strikeout rate has declined sharply as a result of throwing the split and his sinking fastball earlier in the count. Patterson has had to alter his game following 1998 shoulder surgery that diminished his velocity. His ability to adjust has made him extremely valuable to the Tigers, who always need quality relievers. Jim Poole, reliever, age 34 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Det 6.35 53 0 2 4 0 51 69 7 20 32 .327 .900 Prorated Det 6.35 9 0 0 1 0 9 12 1 3 5 .327 .900 Actual Det 7.27 18 0 1 0 0 9 13 4 1 5 .361 1.097 Prorated Mon 6.35 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 1 2 .327 .900 Actual Mon 27.00 5 0 0 0 0 2 8 1 3 3 .571 1.433 Prorated Tot 6.35 13 0 0 1 0 12 17 2 5 8 .327 .900 Actual Tot 10.97 23 0 1 0 0 11 21 5 4 8 .420 1.196A journeyman southpaw, Poole never pitches well enough to stick around in one place for long. Sean Runyan, reliever, age 26 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Det 4.02 70 0 4 3 1 72 67 10 36 51 .249 .754 Prorated Det 4.02 3 0 0 0 0 3 3 0 1 2 .249 .754 Actual Det 6.00 3 0 0 0 0 3 2 0 2 1 .222 .556Runyan spent most of 2000 in the minors, regaining his touch after undergoing left shoulder surgery in July 1999.The Tigers would love him to come back as their one-out lefty in 2001, and early reports are that Runyan should be 100 percent in spring training. Brandon Villafuerte, reliever, age 24 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual Det 10.38 3 0 0 0 0 4 4 0 4 1 .250 .775The Hawaii native throws close to 100 mph but hasn't got the slightest idea of how to control his fastball. He'll need a lot more time in the high minors to figure it out, but that will be for the Rangers to decide. They recently acquired Villafuerte for Matt Perisho. Todd Jones, closer, age 32 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Det 3.63 70 0 3 6 30 72 69 8 38 65 .255 .743 Prorated Det 3.63 60 0 3 5 26 62 59 7 33 56 .255 .743 Actual Det 3.52 67 0 2 4 42 64 67 6 25 67 .276 .727Jones is a good, but not dominating, late-inning reliever who had perhaps his best season in 2000. His league-leading 42 saves were a personal best, and he blew just four save opportunities. He is not afraid to challenge opponents with what used to be an excellent fastball, which now rates as "only" above-average. A smart pitcher who loves his role, Jones pitched well at Comerica (3.00 ERA, two homers) and struggled on the road (0-3, 4.06 ERA). He allowed runs in just 13 of his appearances. Outlook Detroit essentially stood pat this winter except for the big trade with Houston, which is probably a good posture given the temptation GM Randy Smith's felt to justify his 1999 megatrade by re-signing Juan Gonzalez. Addition by subtraction is an overused cliché, but it is certainly apropos in this situation. While it might not seem apparent this year, especially if Gonzalez racks up 130+ ribbies in Cleveland this summer, the Tigers dodged a huge bullet when Gonzo left as a free agent. Especially if Comerica continues to play as a big pitchers' park, the Tigers certainly couldn't afford to be encumbered with a one-dimensional DH with a huge salary for five or more years. Did the specter of Cecil Fielder's sad decline in the mid-1990s roam the Detroit executive suites after the season ended? Major improvements by young outfielders Juan Encarnacion and Roger Cedeno would be a big help. However, while Encarnacion is young enough to learn, he hasn't yet shown the plate discipline needed to fully harness his power potential. Cedeno's game deteriorated in virtually all areas Houston last season, and the Astros were unhappy with his defense in center field. He needs to establish that he can adequately patrol the spacious pasture in Comerica while also upping his offensive contribution by getting on base more and stealing bases at a higher rate. The Tigers are not a good team, but they have enough talent and enough room for improvement that they can realistically look forward to fighting for a Wild Card berth with only a moderate amount of improvement. Anything more than that would require a major leap forward like that of the White Sox in 2000 -- and that isn't likely given this squad. Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond Mind, Inc. All rights reserved. Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights reserved. | Diamond Mind reports | ||||