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| Monday, February 12 | |||||
| Season in review: Kansas City Royals Diamond Mind Baseball | |||||
Diamond Mind is a highly-realistic strategy-oriented computer baseball game. Founder Tom Tippett and a team of top baseball analysts -- Gary Gillette, Stuart Shea and Zack Scott -- are presenting detailed reviews of each team's performance in 2000 (with projected and actual statistics for all key players) along with their thoughts about the outlook for the 2001 season.
This article takes a look at how the Kansas City Royals did in the 2000 season relative to preseason expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page at the Diamond Mind web site.
Capsule summaryProjected Actual Runs for 835 879 Runs allowed 920 930 Run Margin -85 -51 Wins 73 77 Pythagorean wins 73 76 Placement 3rd 4thWhat a difference a year makes. The 1999 Royals were outscored by 65 runs, a margin that normally produces 75 wins, but they won only 64 games because they had a horrible 11-32 record in one-run games. Their offense was good, but their pitching, especially the bullpen, was awful. A year later, the 2000 Royals were outscored by 51 runs, a margin that normally produces 76 wins. This time, they won 77 games even though their pitching, especially the bullpen, was awful once again. Why? Mostly because their record in one-run games improved to 21-26. In other words, the Royals won 13 more games but weren't really that much better. It's just that their luck was horrible in 1999 and average last year. Last year's edition kicked off the season with some improbable late-inning rallies, but the young pitching staff wasn't able to sustain any momentum. The team hovered around the .500 mark for two months, then dropped ten games below that mark by the end of July before finishing with a 30-28 record over the last two months. In other words, they never really got hot, and were never really in the race. Key position players In 1998, the Royals finished 13th in team offense, then lost two of their best hitters (Dean Palmer and Jose Offerman) to free agency after that season. In the two years since, the lineup has been retooled to great effect -- KC was 5th in the AL in scoring last year. Before the 1999 season, we figured they'd be much better thanks to the addition of three promising kids -- Carlos Febles, Jeremy Giambi, and Carlos Beltran. We were right about the increase but wrong about the reasons. Giambi was a non-factor before being traded to Oakland, and while Febles and Beltran have had some success, they've had their difficulties, too. The real reason for the ascent in the rankings is the development of Mike Sweeney, Jermaine Dye, and Johnny Damon. Replacing Palmer with Joe Randa has also been a factor insomuch as they didn't feel the loss of Palmer's bat as much as they could have. The 2000 team got no offense from the C, SS and 2B positions. Febles and Beltran each missed half the season and were disappointing the other half. But the core of the lineup -- Damon, Dye, Sweeney, Randa, and Mark Quinn -- was extremely healthy and very productive. Except for Quinn, who had 500 atbats despite spending two weeks in the minors, each of those players netted over 600 atbats. And they're the reason why KC scored 44 more runs than projected despite the lack of support from the other positions. Brian Johnson, c, age 32 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 474 117 20 2 20 55 65 4 40 5 92 0 1 .247 .310 .424 .734 59 Prorated KC 119 29 5 1 5 14 16 1 10 1 23 0 0 .247 .310 .424 .734 15 Actual KC 125 26 6 0 4 9 18 0 4 0 28 0 0 .208 .229 .352 .581 9For several years, Kansas City fans heard about two very good catcher prospects -- Mike Sweeney and Sal Fasano -- who were moving up through the farm system and would someday make an impact for the Royals. Sweeney is a star now, but at first base, not catcher. And Fasano, who never showed that he could hit big-league pitching, was sold to Oakland as spring training came to a close last year. So the Royals found themselves trying to cobble together a solution at a position that was once considered an organizational strength. Even though Johnson had never been a #1 catcher (only 1286 career atbats with four previous teams), he appeared to have won the starting job when Fasano was traded away. But he never got things going at the plate, threw out only 17% of opposing runners, and was released on the last day of June. He recently signed a minor-league contract with the Dodgers. Gregg Zaun, c, age 29 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 84 18 3 0 2 9 10 0 11 1 11 1 0 .214 .302 .321 .624 9 Prorated KC 244 52 9 0 6 26 29 0 32 3 32 3 0 .214 .302 .321 .624 25 Actual KC 234 64 11 0 7 36 33 3 43 3 34 7 3 .274 .390 .410 .800 41Zaun entered the season as a well-traveled backup with a .236 career average, a good batting eye, and below-average power. This was arguably his best season to date, and he might have set a career high for atbats if not for a sprained right elbow that cost him six weeks. The switch-hitting Zaun played more often and did his best work in the second half, and that should earn him even more playing time in 2001. Jorge Fabregas, c, age 30 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 67 14 2 0 1 6 8 0 6 1 8 0 0 .209 .270 .284 .554 5 Prorated KC 136 28 4 0 2 12 16 0 12 2 16 0 0 .209 .270 .284 .554 10 Actual KC 142 40 4 0 3 13 17 0 8 1 11 1 0 .282 .320 .373 .693 17A light-hitting reserve catcher, Fabregas wore the uniform of six different teams in the three years prior to joining the Royals last season. He moved among the Royals, the minors and the disabled list (a six week stint for an inflamed right elbow) before going on a little streak that raised his batting average by thirty points during the last two weeks of the season. He was the only Royals catcher to have any success (40%) throwing out enemy base stealers. Fabregas became a free agent after the season and signed with Anaheim. Hector Ortiz, c, age 30 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Actual KC 88 34 6 0 0 15 5 1 8 1 8 0 0 .386 .443 .455 .898 19Hmmm. What should we make of this? Here's a guy whose big-league career prior to age 30 consisted four atbats and whose on-base percentages and slugging percentages were under .300 for most of his minor-league seasons. Then something changed two years ago. In a combined 391 atbats at AAA in 1999-2000, Ortiz batted over .300 with moderate power, and then hit .386 in the majors. As a result, he'll be in the mix for at least a platoon role in 2001. Mike Sweeney, 1b/dh, age 26 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 579 171 39 2 21 93 96 9 56 1 63 5 2 .295 .365 .478 .843 99 Prorated KC 641 189 43 2 23 103 106 10 62 1 70 6 2 .295 .365 .478 .843 110 Actual KC 618 206 30 0 29 105 144 15 71 5 67 8 3 .333 .407 .523 .930 136A catcher in the minor leagues, Sweeney didn't bust out at the plate until he was moved to first base when Jeff King suddenly retired a few weeks into the 1999 season. Since then, he's been one of the top RBI men in the league, topping the century mark in 1999 and finishing only one behind the league leader (Edgar Martinez) last year. Sweeney was remarkably consistent last year -- he hit well in every month, against both lefties and righties, and in all situations -- and set career highs in every category except doubles. His defense is acceptable at first base, but he was listed as the DH 45 times last year because Dave McCarty is a superior fielder at that position. KC recently rewarded Sweeney with a 2-year, $13 million contract. Dave McCarty, 1b/lf/rf, age 30 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 100 26 5 0 4 15 13 1 13 1 20 1 1 .260 .348 .430 .778 15 Prorated KC 257 67 13 0 10 38 33 3 33 3 51 3 3 .260 .348 .430 .778 38 Actual KC 270 75 14 2 12 34 53 0 22 1 68 0 0 .278 .329 .478 .807 42McCarty came up through the Twins organization and was a highly-regarded prospect in the early 1990s, but Minnesota gave up on him after a couple of mediocre seasons. From 1997-1999, McCarty spent most of his time in the minors, earning only 18 big-league atbats in that span. His perseverence was rewarded last year when he made the Royals out of spring training. He was used mostly as a defensive sub early in the year, but a hot streak in May earned him 48 starts at first base, with Sweeney moving to DH in those games. McCarty killed left-handed pitching (.365 average, .625 slugging, 16 extra-base hits in 104 atbats), but was terrible against righties. And his performance in the second half was not good at all (.247, 4 homers), so even though this was his best season, he doesn't appear to be an everyday player despite his excellent defensive skills. Carlos Febles, 2b, age 24 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 583 157 29 14 13 101 67 11 70 0 115 31 7 .269 .357 .434 .791 94 Prorated KC 343 92 17 8 8 59 39 6 41 0 68 18 4 .269 .357 .434 .791 55 Actual KC 339 87 12 1 2 59 29 10 36 1 48 17 6 .257 .345 .316 .660 40Febles has yet to fulfill the promise created by his huge 1998 season at AA Wichita, when he batted .326, drew walks at twice the league-average rate, and slugged .530. He was off to a very good start in his rookie season with the Royals until he tried coming back too early from a wrist injury and saw his numbers tail off significantly late in the year. Last year, injuries were again a big part of the story -- he missed a total of nine weeks with shoulder and ankle problems -- but he wasn't hitting for average or power even before his body started breaking down. Was that AA season an anomaly? It's beginning to look that way. Then again, he's young and has a very good batting eye, so he should evolve into a very good all-around hitter. Even if he doesn't hit for power, he'll be a valuable leadoff or #2 hitter for many years. Jeff Reboulet, 2b/3b/ss, age 36 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 79 17 3 0 1 12 5 1 14 0 17 0 0 .215 .340 .291 .632 9 Prorated KC 174 38 7 0 2 27 11 2 31 0 38 0 0 .215 .340 .291 .632 20 Actual KC 182 44 7 0 0 29 14 0 23 0 32 3 1 .242 .325 .280 .605 17Reboulet's career has lasted this long because he's been a very good fielder at three infield positions and can get on base at close to the league-average rate. But his bat -- .238 career average and no power -- has never been an asset, so when his range starts to diminish, his claim to a roster spot becomes very tenuous. And our analysis shows that age is finally catching up to him in the field. He became a free agent after the season and was recently picked up by the Pirates. Wilson Delgado, 2b/ss/3b, age 24 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection NYA 69 18 3 0 1 8 7 0 5 0 10 1 0 .261 .311 .348 .659 8 Prorated NYA 47 12 2 0 1 5 5 0 3 0 7 1 0 .261 .311 .348 .659 5 Actual NYA 45 11 1 0 1 6 4 0 5 0 9 1 0 .244 .314 .333 .647 5 Prorated KC 83 22 4 0 1 10 8 0 6 0 12 1 0 .261 .311 .348 .659 9 Actual KC 83 22 1 0 0 15 7 0 6 0 17 1 1 .265 .311 .277 .588 7 Prorated Tot 130 34 6 0 2 15 13 0 9 0 19 2 0 .261 .311 .348 .659 15 Actual Tot 128 33 2 0 1 21 11 0 11 0 26 2 1 .258 .312 .297 .609 12Delgado, who came over from the Yankees in August, appears destined to inherit the utility infielder role that was Reboulet's last year. He's a decent fielder who's never likely to be a league-average hitter, so he'll probably have a career as a utility man rather than a starter. But he's better than Reboulet at the plate and should serve as an upgrade for the Royals this season, provided he still has a job after the recent additions of Luis Alicea and Craig Wilson. Joe Randa, 3b, age 30 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 543 160 29 7 13 75 69 5 49 2 77 5 4 .295 .355 .446 .801 85 Prorated KC 598 176 32 8 14 83 76 6 54 2 85 6 4 .295 .355 .446 .801 94 Actual KC 612 186 29 4 15 88 106 6 36 3 66 6 3 .304 .343 .438 .781 89What you see is what you get. Randa has been a very consistent performer in his six big-league seasons, and last year was no exception, as his output was right in line with his career norms. This level of production was right in the middle of the pack for third basemen last year. So was his defense. Rey Sanchez, ss, age 32 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 528 153 22 6 4 72 58 5 30 2 64 5 6 .290 .332 .377 .709 62 Prorated KC 511 148 21 6 4 70 56 5 29 2 62 5 6 .290 .332 .377 .709 60 Actual KC 509 139 18 2 1 68 38 4 28 0 55 7 3 .273 .314 .322 .637 50Despite being the best defensive shortstop in the majors over the past few seasons -- and, no, I haven't forgotten about Rey Ordonez -- Sanchez has been a regular only twice because of his bat. Last year, he ranked last in the majors in OPS among shortstops with at least 400 atbats. And he didn't "accomplish" that feat by having a bad year, he did it by matching his career averages. His career batting average (.273) is respectable, but he doesn't walk and has absolutely no power. Luis Ordaz, ss/2b, age 24 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 69 17 3 1 0 6 8 0 4 0 7 1 1 .246 .284 .319 .603 6 Prorated KC 108 27 5 2 0 9 12 0 6 0 11 2 2 .246 .284 .319 .603 9 Actual KC 104 23 2 0 0 17 11 1 5 0 10 4 2 .221 .257 .240 .497 6Ordaz has compiled a minor-league career that looks a lot like Sanchez's major-league career -- as a hitter, that is. His defense isn't good enough to earn him a job as a regular on that basis alone, and there's no reason to believe that he'll ever hit his way into someone's starting lineup. Mark Quinn, lf/dh, age 26 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 522 159 29 2 23 81 97 10 38 2 81 8 5 .305 .360 .500 .860 93 Prorated KC 494 150 27 2 22 77 92 9 36 2 77 8 5 .305 .360 .500 .860 88 Actual KC 500 147 33 2 20 76 78 3 35 1 91 5 2 .294 .342 .488 .830 82Quinn won the Pacific Coast League batting title in 1999 and hit very well in a September callup that year. Although he's a little old to be considered a budding superstar, he did get his career off to a very solid start, finishing in the middle of the pack among everyday left-fielders in the OPS rankings. Muser sent him down to AAA to work on his defense and baserunning for a couple of weeks in June, and Quinn responded by raising his game a little in the second half. Dee Brown, lf, age 22 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 67 18 3 1 2 12 11 1 7 0 13 1 1 .269 .347 .433 .780 10 Prorated KC 25 7 1 0 1 4 4 0 3 0 5 0 0 .269 .347 .433 .780 4 Actual KC 25 4 1 0 0 4 4 0 3 0 9 0 0 .160 .250 .200 .450 1Although Brown has flopped in two brief trials with Kansas City, his minor league record is strong (.373 on-base percentage, .497 slugging) and he remains a top propsect for 2002, if not right away. He struggled a bit at AAA Omaha last year, where his 23 homers were negated to some degree by a .269 average and a significant drop in his walk rate, which had been very good in the lower minors. Brown has stolen 20-30 bases a year and covers a lot of ground in the outfield, so if he continues to develop as a hitter, he'll be a good all-around outfielder for the Royals someday. Carlos Beltran, cf, age 23 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 629 179 28 8 25 111 103 5 50 2 118 23 6 .285 .338 .474 .812 100 Prorated KC 375 107 17 5 15 66 61 3 30 1 70 14 4 .285 .338 .474 .812 60 Actual KC 372 92 15 4 7 49 44 0 35 2 69 13 0 .247 .309 .366 .675 43I don't believe in the sophomore jinx, but if I did, Beltran would be a prime example. After winning the AL Rookie of the Year award in 1999, Beltran got off to a somewhat slow start, was benched for lack of hustle in June, and then became enmeshed in a strange dispute over a bruised knee. The club asked him to go to Florida for rehab. Beltran refused, saying that he felt he could rehab the knee just as well in KC, and he was suspended without pay. He filed a grievance and the matter was eventually worked out, but Beltran missed most of the second half. Except for his perfect 13-for-13 in steal attempts, every aspect of his game suffered last year, but most notable is his woeful performance against right-handed pitching (.233 with minimal power). Johnny Damon, cf/lf, age 26 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 591 167 32 8 16 99 73 3 65 3 70 26 9 .283 .355 .445 .800 96 Prorated KC 659 186 36 9 18 110 81 3 72 3 78 29 10 .283 .355 .445 .800 107 Actual KC 655 214 42 10 16 136 88 1 65 4 60 46 9 .327 .382 .495 .877 133What a difference a couple of months can make. Ever since Damon arrived in the big leagues as a 21-year-old CF in 1995, he had improved steadily but had never attained the lofty heights that were projected for him. In 1999, his fourth full season, he was an above-league-average hitter for the first time, but he was still in the middle of the pack among regular left fielders. And he had been moved from CF to LF to make room for Beltran. And the first half of 2000 didn't suggest that the story would change anytime soon; he entered the break with a .267 average and nothing else in his batting line to get excited about. Then everything changed. In the eight days following the break, Damon had a 5-hit game, two 4-hit games, and three 3-hit games. And he just kept on hitting for six more weeks. He batted .408 and slugged .600 in July and August before tailing off just a little in September. It added up to a .386 second-half batting average that was backed up by 43 extra-base hits. Oh, and he led the league in runs with 136, stole 46 bases in 55 tries, and played very good defense. All of a sudden, Damon was a star with a year left on his contract. And the Royals, fearing that they would be unable to sign him after the 2001 season, entered into a three-team trade that sent Damon to Oakland, Ben Grieve to Tampa Bay, and closer Roberto Hernandez to the Royals. It's going to be very interesting to see if Damon can sustain this level of performance. The arguments in favor are that he was regarded as having this kind of talent all along, he's young, he has improved every year, and lesser players simply don't hit that well for two entire months. The doubts arise from the fact that his walk rate declined dramatically in the second half, and if you take away those two months from his six-year career, you have an average hitter (for a left fielder) with superior defense and baserunning skills. Because he doesn't belt a lot of homers, there were sixteen LF's and CF's, eight at each position, with a higher OPS last year. I'm not ready to label him a superstar, but I do think he'll be a very valuable player for many years, and Oakland fans are going to like having him at the top of their lineup this year. Todd Dunwoody, cf/lf/rf/dh, age 25 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 128 32 6 3 3 17 15 1 8 0 30 3 2 .250 .299 .414 .713 15 Prorated KC 182 46 9 4 4 24 21 1 11 0 43 4 3 .250 .299 .414 .713 22 Actual KC 178 37 9 0 1 12 23 1 8 0 42 3 0 .208 .238 .275 .514 12Once a promising prospect in the Marlins system, Dunwoody has yet to show he can hit big-league pitching. He lost a chunk of the 2000 season to a severe ankle sprain and did nothing to convince KC to keep him around. He'll be in camp with the Cubs. Jermaine Dye, rf, age 26 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 577 159 32 6 25 88 100 2 51 3 114 3 3 .276 .334 .482 .816 89 Prorated KC 617 170 34 6 27 94 107 2 55 3 122 3 3 .276 .334 .482 .816 95 Actual KC 601 193 41 2 33 107 118 3 69 6 99 0 1 .321 .390 .561 .951 133Dye started the season the way Damon started the second half, with a bang. Dye batted .388 with 11 homers and 28 RBI in April, and while he wasn't able to maintain that pace, he never had a bad stretch either. He just continued to produce and wound up with career highs in just about every category. Like Damon's, Dye's contract is up after the 2001 season, and the Royals are going to have to come up with some dough to keep him. Key pitchers It's a good thing they're scoring runs these days, because the Royals pitching staff hasn't been doing the job -- finishing 13th, 14th, and 13th in the league in runs allowed over the past three years. The last time the Royals pitchers finished higher than second-last in the AL was 1997, which (not coincidentally) was Kevin Appier's last good year as a starter with this club. It's often the case that bad pitching staffs are made to look even worse by poor defenses, especially in the outfield. Stick a couple of lead-footed sluggers in the corner outfield spots with a so-so CF in between, and just watch the pitching wear down when those singles get through for extra bases and those in-between fly balls always seem to land in a tuft of grass instead of the webbing of a glove. But that's definitely not the story here. KC had a very good defense, with top glove men like Sanchez, Damon, and Dye ably assisted by Beltran, Febles and Randa. But the Royals hurlers never gave them a chance. They walked more men (693) and allowed more homers (239) than any other team in the league. Their ace (Jose Rosado) and a promising young reliever (Orber Moreno) missed most or all of the season with injuries, but the team was healthy otherwise. In other words, the problem was a lack of talent. Or, more accurately, a lack of mature talent. As you read through the player comments below, you'll see a lot of guys who were 25 or younger. It's unlikely that any of them will develop into top-of-the-rotation starters or ace closers, but there is some talent in this group. In time, they'll be better. Jose Rosado, starter, age 25 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection KC 4.03 32 32 12 10 0 197 190 25 69 139 .255 .728 Prorated KC 4.03 5 5 2 1 0 29 28 4 10 20 .255 .728 Actual KC 5.86 5 5 2 2 0 28 29 4 9 15 .271 .852Rosado came to spring training as the staff ace after finishing 5th in the league in ERA the year before. That was the high point of his season. A hamstring injury limited his innings during the spring, and he got off to a slow start. By the end of April, he was experiencing discomfort in his shoulder. A month of rest didn't help, and Rosado had surgery in June to repair a frayed labrum and rotator cuff. He's been throwing for a few weeks and expects to be ready for spring training. Jeff Suppan, starter, age 25 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection KC 4.77 32 32 11 11 0 194 211 27 59 113 .279 .783 Prorated KC 4.77 36 36 13 13 0 221 240 31 67 129 .279 .783 Actual KC 4.94 35 33 10 9 0 217 240 36 84 128 .284 .840Suppan has been durable but eminently hittable in his career to this point, so when his control isn't sharp, he's in trouble. The good news is that he was much better in the second half, cutting his homerun rate in half and posting an 8-3 record with a 3.99 ERA after the break. Jay Witasick, starter, age 27 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection KC 5.68 32 32 8 14 0 182 208 33 90 143 .288 .849 Prorated KC 5.68 16 16 4 7 0 90 103 16 44 70 .288 .849 Actual KC 5.94 22 14 3 8 0 89 109 15 38 67 .301 .865 Prorated SD 5.68 11 11 3 5 0 63 72 11 31 49 .288 .849 Actual SD 5.64 11 11 3 2 0 61 69 9 35 54 .284 .836 Prorated Tot 5.68 27 27 7 12 0 153 174 28 75 120 .288 .849 Actual Tot 5.82 33 25 6 10 0 150 178 24 73 121 .294 .854Witasick pitched well down the stretch in 1999, so the Royals were optimistic about him going into the season. But he got off to a brutal start, was dropped from the rotation, got another chance to start after a few good relief outings, and bombed again as a starter. Having seen enough, KC traded him to San Diego for Brian Meadows, who was having similar troubles in the NL. Even though he was no better after the trade, the Padres haven't given up on Witasick. He recently signed a one-year deal for $800,000 to avoid arbitration. Blake Stein, starter, age 26 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection KC 5.54 29 29 9 11 0 164 174 30 94 132 .272 .847 Prorated KC 5.54 18 18 6 7 0 101 107 18 58 81 .272 .847 Actual KC 4.68 17 17 8 5 0 108 98 19 57 78 .247 .766Stein began the season on the disabled list with a cracked bone in his forearm and didn't make his first start until early July. Even though he was awful in his first eight outings -- 7.14 ERA, only one quality start -- the Royals stuck with him. (They didn't have a lot of other options.) Their patience was rewarded by a 6-2 record and seven quality starts in his last nine games. He goes into 2001 as a key member of the rotation. His walk-strikeout ratio makes me nervous, partly because it was even worse in his last eight starts (29 BB and 32K) than it was earlier in the year. Makoto Suzuki, starter, age 25 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection KC 6.13 27 27 5 9 0 128 145 23 76 83 .288 .881 Prorated KC 6.13 38 38 7 13 0 180 205 32 107 117 .288 .881 Actual KC 4.34 32 29 8 10 0 189 195 26 94 135 .265 .778I first saw Suzuki, a hard-throwing right-hander from Japan, when he was in the Mariners camp as a teenager in 1993. The Japanese media was following his every move, and everyone had high hopes. But Suzuki has yet to have a really good season at any level. He improved last year, though it wasn't quite as dramatic as his ERA suggests, and he was quite effective against right-handed batters. But he's still walking too many guys and giving up too many homers. In October, he underwent rotator cuff surgery -- those shoulder woes may explain his poor second half -- and is expected to miss at least the first couple of months. Brian Meadows, starter, age 24 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection SD 5.73 27 27 6 13 0 159 195 27 47 75 .304 .843 Prorated SD 5.73 22 22 5 10 0 128 157 22 38 60 .304 .843 Actual SD 5.34 22 22 7 8 0 125 150 24 50 53 .301 .905 Prorated KC 5.73 12 12 3 6 0 69 84 12 20 32 .304 .843 Actual KC 4.77 11 10 6 2 0 72 84 8 14 26 .293 .775 Prorated Tot 5.73 33 33 7 16 0 196 241 33 58 93 .304 .843 Actual Tot 5.13 33 32 13 10 0 196 234 32 64 79 .298 .858Like Jeff Suppan, Meadows doesn't have great stuff but manages to hang in because he doesn't walk too many. His win-loss record was good because he got a lot of run support, not because he was an especially good pitcher. Lefties battered him for a .309 average, a .380 on-base percentage, and .542 slugging percentage, a pattern consistent with his previous two years. Chad Durbin, starter, age 22 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection KC 7.02 3 3 1 1 0 17 22 4 7 12 .324 .978 Prorated KC 7.02 13 13 4 4 0 75 98 18 31 54 .324 .978 Actual KC 8.21 16 16 2 5 0 72 91 14 43 37 .301 .902Durbin has risen steadily through the Royals farm system, never needing more than a year at one level before getting promoted, and never pitching badly at any stage. This is the first time they've moved him up twice in one year, and it's the first time he has been overmatched. His walk-strikeout ratios have been very good throughout his career, so Durbin has a good chance to be an effective major-league pitcher. Dan Reichert, reliever/starter, age 23 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection KC 5.40 17 0 1 2 0 22 25 3 14 18 .294 .867 Prorated KC 5.40 115 0 7 14 0 147 169 20 95 122 .294 .867 Actual KC 4.70 44 18 8 10 2 153 157 15 91 94 .271 .767Reichert has averaged about six walks per nine innings in his two partial seasons with the Royals. He's an extreme ground-ball pitcher, so he erased a lot of those walks with 28 double plays (4th most in the AL) and he doesn't often get hurt by the longball. He relieved for the first half of the year before moving into the rotation in late June. A brutal September (0-4, 7.39) ruined what had been a very impressive series of starts. He should be a good one if he can overcome his control problems without serving up too many fat pitches. Miguel Batista, starter/reliever, age 29 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 4.66 34 4 4 5 0 85 91 9 37 60 .277 .777 Prorated Mon 4.66 4 1 1 1 0 11 12 1 5 8 .277 .777 Actual Mon 14.04 4 0 0 1 0 8 19 2 3 7 .452 1.190 Prorated KC 4.66 24 3 3 3 0 59 64 6 26 42 .277 .777 Actual KC 7.74 14 9 2 6 0 57 66 17 34 30 .292 .941 Prorated Tot 4.66 28 3 3 4 0 70 75 7 31 50 .277 .777 Actual Tot 8.54 18 9 2 7 0 65 85 19 37 37 .317 .980Batista came from Montreal in a late-April trade that sent Brad Rigby north. He has no history of allowing a lot of homers, but his pitches were launched into the bleachers at an alarming rate last year, so Batista spent the second half of the year in AAA. He's now in the Arizona organization. Chris Fussell, reliever/starter, age 24 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection KC 6.30 4 4 1 2 0 20 25 4 12 16 .309 .931 Prorated KC 6.30 13 13 3 7 0 67 83 13 40 53 .309 .931 Actual KC 6.30 20 9 5 3 0 70 76 18 44 46 .286 .907In three big-league seasons totalling a scant 136 innings, Fussell has seen his ERA drop from 8.38 to 7.39 to 6.30. So I suppose he's making progress. But 44 walks and 18 homers in 70 innings just doesn't cut it, and Fussell appears to be the least likely of KC's young pitchers to succeed. Orber Moreno, reliever, age 23 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection KC 3.95 70 0 6 4 2 98 91 13 45 87 .247 .750 Moreno has had nothing but success in his minor-league career, dominating hitters in the low minors, pitching very well at AA Wichita in 1998 and again with AAA Omaha in 1999, and earning a promotion to the big club as a 22-year-old in 1999. Since then, he's had nothing but arm problems, and he missed all of the 2000 season after having tendon transplant surgery in his elbow. It's not clear whether he'll be back, and if he is, whether he'll be all the way back. Scott Mullen, lefty specialist, age 25ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual KC 4.35 11 0 0 0 0 10 10 2 3 7 .244 .734After failing to impress as a starting pitcher, Mullen was tried in relief for the first time last year. He responded with strong performances at both AA and AAA, earning a promotion to the Royals for the month of September. He was terrific against lefties, holding them to a .143 average and no walks, but righties pounded him for a .550 slugging average. That was probably enough to earn him a spot in the Royals bullpen for 2001, but we'll have to see how well he comes back from off-season shoulder surgery. Jose Santiago, long reliever, age 25 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection KC 4.48 40 0 3 3 0 70 77 10 23 24 .283 .791 Prorated KC 4.48 40 0 3 3 0 71 78 10 23 24 .283 .791 Actual KC 3.91 45 0 8 6 2 69 70 7 26 44 .260 .719Santiago has now given the Royals two solid seasons of long relief. His success in that role led Muser to try him as a closer, but Santiago (like the others they've tried) was a bust, blowing 7 of 11 opportunities over the past two years. Overall, he allowed a horrible 21 of 33 inherited runners to score. I'm not sure why, but this right-hander has been much more effective against lefty hitters to this point in his career. Jerry Spradlin, long reliever, age 33 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection KC 4.25 53 0 4 4 0 72 76 9 29 57 .273 .776 Prorated KC 4.25 53 0 4 4 0 72 76 9 29 57 .273 .776 Actual KC 5.52 50 0 4 4 7 75 81 9 27 54 .283 .805 Prorated ChN 4.25 12 0 1 1 0 16 17 2 6 13 .273 .776 Actual ChN 8.40 8 1 0 1 0 15 20 2 5 13 .328 .869 Prorated Tot 4.25 65 0 5 5 0 88 93 11 36 70 .273 .776 Actual Tot 6.00 58 1 4 5 7 90 101 11 32 67 .291 .816Spradlin was a better pitcher than his ERA suggests and he gave the Royals what they had a right to expect based on his recent past, which consisted of one good season (1998 with the Phillies) sandwiched between two mediocre ones. In fact, you could even argue that he was one of the bright spots in the KC pen -- he converted a respectable 7 of 11 save opportunities and allowed only 7 of 28 inherited runners to score. Nevertheless, he was released in August and finished out the year in poor fashion with the Cubs. He recently signed with Cleveland for 2001. Kris Wilson, reliever, age 23 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual KC 4.19 20 0 0 1 0 34 38 3 11 17 .288 .765We didn't project any playing time for Wilson because he entered 2000 having thrown only 80 innings above A ball and having been banged around pretty good -- 5.45 ERA, 91 hits and 11 homers in 74 innings at AA Wichita -- mostly as a starter. But his second crack at AA proved to be much more successful last year, and that earned him a shot in the beleaguered KC bullpen. He did a good job, displaying good control and (rare among KC relievers) the ability to keep the ball in the park. Ricky Bottalico, closer, age 30 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection KC 5.51 70 0 2 8 21 67 78 9 42 55 .293 .863 Prorated KC 5.51 71 0 2 8 21 68 79 9 43 56 .293 .863 Actual KC 4.83 62 0 9 6 16 73 65 12 41 56 .239 .783In the years since he saved 34 games in both 1996 and 1997 for the Phillies, Bottalico has struggled with injuries and with his control. He blew 7 of 23 save opportunities, so KC decided not to bring him back for 2001. Instead, he'll return to Philly in an attempt to reconnect with his glory days. Outlook Young teams with some talent tend to improve, so I think the Royals will be a little better this year. But it's hard to see how they could be a lot better. Their off-season moves subtracted more talent than they added. The only major deal was the three-way trade that sent Johnny Damon to Oakland and brought Roberto Hernandez from Tampa Bay. The 36-year-old Hernandez will help a bullpen has blown a lot of leads in recent years, but the loss of Damon's 214 hits, 68 extra-base hits, 46 stolen bases, and defensive skills will reduce the number of leads that are handed to the closer in the first place. The other newcomers are journeyman players brought in to create some competition for reserve positions (AJ Hinch, Luis Alicea, Craig Wilson, Raul Ibanez, and Jon Nunnally) or add a veteran presence in the bullpen (Jason Grimsley and Doug Henry). And while Carlos Beltran and Carlos Febles should rebound this year, there's not much room for improvement for their other starters, all of whom had big years (Dye, Sweeney) or were near their established level (Randa, Sanchez). A lot of things would have to go right for the team to increase their scoring power; they'd do well to overcome the loss of Damon and maintain their current level. So any improvement is most likely to come from the new relievers and their young starting pitchers. The pitching should be better, but this group would have to shave about 150 runs off what they allowed last year to make this team a legitimate contender, and I don't think there's enough talent in this group to pull that off. Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond Mind, Inc. All rights reserved. Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights reserved. | Diamond Mind reports | ||||